金融危机期间日本的东盟经济外交政策:内涵、影响及启示

为应对中国在东盟影响力的不断攀升、提升自身的区域影响力并促进国内经济的复苏,金融危机期间,日本在东盟展开了一系列的经济外交措施。这些措施,就其通过对东盟的经援和经贸金融合作来促进双方经济复苏、推进区域化一体化来看,对中国有利;就其通过各种手段提高在东盟的影响力、与中国在东亚区域合作中争夺主导权来看,对中国不利。因此,在借鉴、警惕日本经济外交的同时,要意识到与其在东南亚展开合作的必要性。     

走出经济徘徊：来自日本的启示

创造世界奇迹的日本进入90年代后失去了昔日的光环,泡沫破灭、金融动荡、实体经济恶化。1997年发端于泰国的东亚金融危机使之雪上加霜,长达10年的经济衰退打破了日本经济发展模式的神话。虽然近来日本经济已显露复苏的迹象,但由于金融不良资产的大量存在和结构调整的长期性,全面复苏仍需时日。日本经济问题具有一定的普遍性,对解决我国国内经济问题在多方面具有借鉴意义。     

东亚经济的复苏和调整

1997到2001年,东亚经济经历了大起大落的颠簸。2000年短暂复苏之后,受美国经济衰退的影响,2001年东亚经济再次行走在经济萧条的边缘。2002年东亚经济经历了较为强劲的复苏,但是从2002年下半年起,复苏的步伐有所放缓。     

中国超过美国成为日本最大贸易伙伴

中国去年第一次超过美国，成为日本的最大贸易伙伴，体现中国对正在艰难复苏的日本经济的重要性。     

经济复苏与东亚五国经济增长的中长期含义

本文通过对东亚五受灾国复苏过程中取得的成就进行特征分析,并结合五国经济增长的中长期表现,阐明了东亚五国经济进一步增长的有利和不利因素,经过检验,本文认为,五国复苏过程并非完全依赖于外部环境,东亚五国危机前的增长因素同样贡献于这一复苏的进程。     

东亚经济一体化预期效应分析

中国、日本、韩国和东盟都是世界上重要的经济体，如果东亚经济一体化能够实现，无论对于东亚国家还是对于世界上其他国家而言都将产生重大影响。对东亚经济一体化预期效应可以从贸易转移与贸易创造效应、生产转移与投资转移效应、福利效应等方面加以加以分析。     

日中韩三国经济合作的现状与课题

近些年构筑“东亚经济共同体”的呼声越来越高,建立中日韩三国自由贸易区(FTA)的议论也不绝于耳。文章根据FTA对日本GDP拉动效果的估算,通过对中日韩三国贸易互补性、直接投资与产业内贸易的现状以及三国技术密集型产业出口竞争力的分析研究,认为目前无须强调建立地区经济共同体,而更有必要关注“东亚文化共同体”的构建。     

东亚区域经济合作中的"轮轴--辐条"效应

本文通过分析东亚区域经济合作的现状以及东亚区域中的“轮轴-辐条”效应，探讨了东亚区域经济合作的道路，并得出了中国应积极参与东亚区域经济合作的结论。     

东亚区域生产网络的动态演变——基于零部件贸易产业链的分析

东亚区域生产网络已经成为东亚经济增长的核心特征,但尚缺乏对该生产网络系统勾勒的研究。本文借助投入产出表对国际贸易分类标准中的零部件划分进行修正,以产业链为基础系统总结了SITC(Rev3)第7、8类四分位最终产品所对应的零部件,进一步探讨了东亚产品竞争力的来源、区域生产网络的变迁以及两者之间的关系。我们发现:(1)东亚零部件贸易是其产品出口竞争力的重要来源;(2)诸多生产链交织形成了东亚区域生产分工网络,并呈现出不断强化、加深和技术升级的趋势;(3)中国经济的融合推动了东亚分工网络的发展和调整,成为区域内主要的零部件出口国,日本的主导地位逐渐削弱。     

以商品贸易视角浅析日本在东北亚经贸合作的走势

近年来,东北亚区域一体化受到广泛关注,对于国内经济陷入困境的日本来说,适时地参与东北亚经贸合作可以缓解经济危机并为复苏本国经济提供新的途径.本文通过实证研究对日本在东北亚地区的商品贸易进行分析,运用贸易互补性指数阐明日本与东北亚经贸合作的特点并对日本在东北亚经贸合作的发展趋势进行了展望.     

日本加入中日韩东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应实证分析——以1980～2007年为例

本文以日本加入中日韩东盟自由贸易区的贸易效应为研究对象,通过对相关国家的经济指标时间序列(1980～2007年)进行了回归分析,得出了既定研究条件下的日本经济贸易的相关影响要素的相关系数,进行经济动向分析,得出了日本结盟后的相关贸易效应的相关分析结论,为促进东亚合作打下基础。     

East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally

This paper analyzes the economic integration of the East and South Asian economies in the global economy. East Asian economies are shown to be achieving much more of their potential trade than South Asian economies, both in terms of intra‐regional trade and in trade with the rest of the world. Examination of the China–Japan, India–Pakistan and Taiwan–mainland China bilateral relationships shows that integration of these economies into the global economy has allowed economic relations to dominate and constrain difficult bilateral political relations in East Asia while in South Asia adverse political relations have hampered development of bilateral economic relationships.     

评建立东亚共同体日本面临的八大挑战

在全球贸易区域一体化浪潮席卷世界的时候,当今全球经济最为活跃的东亚地区在贸易自由化方面却很落后,尚未建立与欧美相匹配的自由贸易区。始终被排斥在欧美的区域集团之外的日本试图以现有的东盟为基础,建立以日本为中心的东亚共同体,保证日本在世界经济格局中重要一极的地位,同时牵制中国。民主党上台后意欲加速东亚共同体的建设。要达到该目标对日本来说面临巨大挑战。本文将从八个方面对此作深入分析研究。     

Currency Invoicing in Japanese Exports to East Asia: Implications for Yen Internationalization

The present paper examines currency invoicing in Japanese exports to East Asia by applying the pricing-to-market (PTM) theory. The notable aims of the present paper are to: (i) use a number of sample commodities obtained from the data on monthly series of exports based on the nine-digit Harmonized System; and (ii) examine currency invoicing practices of Japanese exporters by making a distinction between the long-run and short-run PTM under the framework of the error-correction model. Contrary to the results of previous reports, our study shows that Japanese exporters of electric machinery tend to stabilize US Dollar (USD)-denominated export prices in the short run in East Asian markets, implying that electric machinery products tend to be invoiced in USD in exports to East Asia. Given the USD-invoicing practices by Japanese electric machinery exporters, it is hard to expect the further use of the Yen in trade transactions because the electric machinery industry plays a major role in facilitating trade and investment between Japan and East Asia.     

An East Asian paradigm?

The World Bank's 1993 East Asian Miracle report proposed two models of East Asian Development, one based on the Japanese economy, the other on the more recent miracle economies of Southeast Asia. The latter pursued open-market and investment policies compatible with Anglo-American economic norms, while Japan and its coterie (South Korea and Taiwan) forged industrial policy regimes with high levels of government intervention and protection. Japan takes a different view of Southeast Asian success—as a combination of conscious emulation of Japan and concentrated Japanese foreign direct investment, aid, and regional industrial strategy. This article explores the tension between the World Bank thesis and the Japanese view, embodied in a growth metaphor called flying geese. The author concludes that Japan has been far more reactive and opportunistic than the flying geese metaphor suggests, but that this paradigm has a profound influence on Japanese government and corporate strategy in Asia.     

Economic integration in northeast Asia: Preconditions and possible trajectories

When in November 2001, the leaders of the Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian states met for the “ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) plus three (China, Japan and Korea),” President Kim Dae‐Jung of South Korea proposed the exploration for an East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and thereby opened a new chapter of East Asian integration. The special Northeast Asian perspective on regional co‐operation became clear by the simultaneous decision to hold annual meetings of finance and trade ministers of China, Japan and Korea. At the same time, bilateral agreements, like a free trade area between Japan and Singapore, the tentative large free trade area between ASEAN and China and the work‐in‐progress on a Korean‐Japanese Free Trade Area, show the devotion and sometimes even obsession of current policy‐making with reaching regional trade agreements. Regional integration, it seems, is finally on the Northeast Asian agenda. In this paper, the preconditions and perspectives of economic integration in Northeast Asia will be explored. Since economic integration is in various ways linked to political factors, the second section discusses the geo‐political situation of Northeast Asia today. The third section deals with the economic perspectives of different forms of trade integration, followed by an analysis of various attempts for greater macro‐economic and financial co‐operation and a short conclusion.     

Invoicing currency and the optimal basket peg for East Asia: Analysis using a new open economy macroeconomic model

An important characteristic of trade in Asia is that the US dollar is the dominant invoicing currency. This fact might have a consequence on the region's choice of the currency regime. To investigate this possibility, I develop a three country “new open economy macroeconomics” model that consists of East Asia, Japan, and the US. Assuming that East Asia pegs its currency to a basket of the other two's currencies, the optimal basket weights are derived numerically. It is shown that the weights under a realistic invoicing pattern are drastically different from those in the textbook case of “producer currency pricing.” J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 569–589.     

Real effects of common currencies in East Asia

Since the 1997 Asian currency crisis, new interest has emerged in the formation of a common currency area in East Asia. This paper provides estimates of trade and welfare effects of East Asian currency unions, using a micro-founded gravity model. Counter-factual experiments to assess the effects of various hypothetical currency arrangements for East Asia suggest that an East Asian currency union will double bilateral trade in the region, but the resulting welfare effects will be moderate. However, if Japan, a major trade partner for East Asia, is included in the union, welfare effects increase substantially. The evidence thus suggests that certain regional currency arrangements in East Asia will stimulate regional trade rigorously and can generate economically significant welfare gains.     

日本创意产业国际贸易竞争力分析

创意产业作为一门新兴产业,发展速度迅速,已经成为拉动经济增长的新引擎。日本作为世界主要经济大国之一,是亚洲创意产业发展较早,市场较为成熟的国家。研究日本创意产业对于我国具有很好的借鉴作用。本文从日本创意产业发展现状,创意产业国际间贸易水平等角度,运用实证分析和经验分析的方法,剖析了日本创意产业国际竞争力水平,并借鉴日本创意产业在国际贸易方面发展的相关经验,对我国创意产业的发展提出相关建议。     

Trade deficits and trade conflict: The United States and Japan

The US trade relationship with Japan was characterised by periods of intense conflict over 1969−95. The paper identifies five such periods, beginning with two bitter conflicts in 1971 and ending with an equally difficult conflict over autos in 1994−95. It presents econometric evidence suggesting rising Japanese penetration of the American market and growth in the bilateral merchandise trade deficit with Japan were important causes of these crises. Over 1996–2016, US-Japan relations were handled in a much less confrontational manner, as import penetration declined. The difficulties Japan’s economy faced; heightened security concerns in Northeast Asia; a broader US shift away from unilateral measures; greater acceptance of the trade deficit; and perceptions that Japan was moving to open its economy were also important in lessening tensions in the bilateral relationship. Strong concerns with the US trade deficit re-emerged under the Trump Administration, but the two economies were, during this period, able to address trade differences without a major confrontation.