The average hospital

In 1998, the UK government introduced the National Reference Costing Exercise (NRCE) to benchmark hospital costs. Benchmarking is usually associated with “excellence”; the government emphasised the raising of standards in the 1997 White Paper “The New NHS: Modern, Dependable” that heralded the NRCE. This paper argues that the UK “New Labour” government's introduction of, and increasing reliance on, hospital cost benchmarking is promoting “averageness”. Average hospitals will be cheaper to run and easier to control than highly differentiated ones; they may also score more highly on certain measures of service improvement. The paper aims, through empirical investigation, both to demonstrate how the activities and processes of hospital life “become average” as they are transformed to comply with the cost accounting average and to indicate how the “average” is being promoted as the norm for hospitals to aspire to. To benchmark to average costs, comparisons are necessary. To compare hospital costs involves the creation of categories and classification systems for clinical activities. Empirical evidence shows that as doctors, patients and clinical practices are moulded into costed categories, they become more standardized, more commensurate and the average hospital is created.     

Financial instruments with sports betting components: Marketing gimmick or a domain for behavioral finance?

We examine theoretically and experimentally a certain class of new financial instruments which are designed as lotteries on the outcome of prominent sports events like the Soccer World Cup 2006. From a theoretical point of view, sports betting products may be superior to a fixed rate investment because of heterogeneous expectations, risk-loving behavior of investors or additional non-monetary utility components. In comparison to the direct placement of bets at bookmakers’, sports betting products may be preferable in cases of hedonic framing. Our experimental section, however, reveals the limited practical relevance of these theoretical arguments for “average” decision makers. Despite this, financial instruments with sports betting components offer a certain profit potential due to the diversity of preferences across individuals. Summarizing, the issuance of sports betting products may actually be mainly driven by marketing aspects, nevertheless sports betting products may be considered to be “viable” niche products with low cost of capital for banks.     

Sourcing parts of complex products: evidence on transactions costs, high-powered incentives and ex-post opportunism

This paper revisits evidence on the correlates of sourcing decisions in the US auto industry to see whether adoption of new contracting terms and early involvement of suppliers in design activities (e.g. “relational contracting”) yields different results as compared to previous findings. Previous studies find that US auto firms insource complex parts that require investments in specific assets. Absent large differences in production costs, the results suggest that transactions costs associated with external suppliers exceed transactions costs associated with internal suppliers (e.g. loss of high powered incentives). Using data on 156 sourcing decisions for process tooling (dies) of a new car program we find that under the new relational contracting regime, transaction cost theory continues to have explanatory power for sourcing decisions; however, attributes that favored insourcing in previous studies favor outsourcing in this setting. Moreover, more complex subassemblies are associated with fewer distinct suppliers than expected — evidence of a tendency to co-locate decision rights to reduce transactions costs related to system interactions. After controlling for transaction characteristics that are associated with the sourcing decision, we find no evidence that outsourcing is associated with increased ex post opportunism by the firm (e.g. agreement about contract completion); however, outsourced parts are submitted by suppliers for evaluation significantly later than insourced parts (e.g. delivery holdup).     

tay's as good as cay: Reply

In a recent comment on our published work [Lettau, M., Ludvigson, S., 2001. Consumption, aggregate wealth, and expected stock returns. Journal of Finance 56, 815–850], Michael Brennan and Yihong Xia [2005. tay's as good as cay. Finance Research Letters 2, 1–14] advance the following argument: A “mechanistic” variable tay, where t is a linear time trend, forecasts stock returns. Since “t has no foresight,” the argument goes, the predictive power of this variable must be attributable to what they call “look-ahead bias.” The authors assert that cay is subject to the same look-ahead bias (generated because we use the full sample to estimate the cointegrating parameters in cay), implying that its forecasting power must be spurious. In this response, we explain why this critique is misplaced.     

Syndicated Loans

This paper analyzes the market for syndicated loans, a hybrid of private and public debt, which has grown at well over a 20% rate annually over the past decade and which totaled over $1 trillion in 1997. We identify empirically the factors that influence a bank or nonbank's decision to syndicate a loan and the determinants of the proportion of the loan sold in the event of syndication. The evidence reveals a loan is more likely to be syndicated as information about the borrower becomes more transparent, as the syndicate's managing agent becomes more “reputable”, and as the loan's maturity increases. The lead manager holds larger proportions of information-problematic loans in its own portfolio. Loan syndications, like loan sales, appear to be motivated, in part, by capital regulations, and the liquidity position of the agent bank influences the likelihood of syndication, but not the extent. Our results confirm that information and agency problems affect the salability of debt claims and the extent to which a loan is “transaction oriented” rather than “relationship oriented” in the sense of A. Boot and A. Thakor (2000, J. Finance54, 679–713). Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D82, G20, G21, G24.     

Accounting for decisions and decisions for accounting

Behavioral decision theory (BDT) is concerned with “accounting for decisions”. The development of this interdisciplinary field is traced from the appearance of several key publications in the 1950s to the present. Whereas the 1960s saw increasing theoretical and empirical work, the field really started to flourish in the 1970s with the appearance of the review by Slovic & Lichtenstein (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, pp. 549–744, 1971), and key papers on probabilistic judgment (Tversky & Kahneman, Science, pp. 1124–1131, 1974), and choice (Kahneman & Tversky, Econometrica, pp. 263–291, 1979). From the early 1980s to the present, BDT has seen considerable consolidation and expansion and its influence now permeates many fields of enquiry. After this brief history, eight major ideas or findings are discussed. These are: (1) that judgment can be modeled; (2) bounded rationality; (3) to understand decision making, understanding the task is more important than understanding the people; (4) levels of aspiration/reference points; (5) use of heuristic rules; (6) the importance of adding; (7) search for confirmation; and (8) thought as construction. Next, comments are addressed to differences between BDT and problem solving/cognitive science. It is argued that whereas many substantive differences are artificial, two distinct communities of researchers do exist. This is followed by a discussion of some major shortcomings currently facing BDT that include questions about the robustness of findings as well as overconcern with a few specific, “paradoxial” results. On the other hand, there are many interesting issues that BDT could address and several specific suggestions are made. Moreover, these issues represent opportunities for accounting research and several are enumerated. Finally, BDT presents “decisions for accounting” in the sense that scarce resources need to be allocated to different types of research that could illuminate accounting issues. The argument is made that BDT is one research metaphor or paradigm that has proved useful in accounting and that should be supported. Such support, however, may mean that some researchers may work on issues that, at first blush, might seem distant from accounting per se.     

Psychology, meaning and the challenges of longevity

Humankind has begun to reap one of the most valued harvests of its scientific and technological pursuits: a significant increase in human longevity. We now live longer than ever before, due in large part to advances in medicine and health care that provide those who have the opportunity to afford them a lifespan that for many approaches or exceeds the 100-year mark. It is now within the realm of possibility that people will live lives of 125 years or more within the next century. However, our ability to increase physical longevity may have outstripped our ability to deal individually and socially with these new lives, these new existences that go well beyond what has traditionally been considered a “working life”. How well-prepared are we psychologically to cope with the meaning of a life that extends to as much as 150 years or more? In this new “age of longevity”, what are the challenges for psychology as a resource for humanity in its quest to give definition to the experience of being alive, as well as for managing the affairs of everyday life? Traditional developmental theories in psychology tend to articulate early stages of life in detail, but are generally mute on the matter of later life. Cognitive psychology has been inclined to view longevity as leading to a deterioration of mental faculties due to “aging”. This paper examines the psychological implications of increased lifespans from an optimistic perspective by reviewing current developments in research on cognition, emotion and aging. The review identifies trends in psychology that, if emphasized and strengthened, may lead to improved theoretical frameworks that cast longevity in a positive light, and that identify how people can find meaning and fulfillment throughout their whole lifespan.

“Grow old along with me! The best is yet to be, The last of life for which the first was made.” Robert Browning “Rabbi Ben Ezra”

I first encountered Browning’s works as an undergraduate, and being a pre-engineering student at the time my tendencies toward poetry were stunted to say the best. Few of the great works of literature my teachers compelled me to read at that stage of my life and development made enough of an impact to last beyond the length of the course requiring their reading. Much has changed since then and my interests in literature and what literature has to say that is of value for our lives has deepened. But Browning’s enthusiastic call to join him in aging has always been a fascination. Indeed, what could be more of a contradiction to modern attitudes about becoming elderly than to claim “the best is yet to be”? What can be more of a challenge to how we approach the relationship between being young and being old than to claim that the last of life is “for which the first was meant”? What can the possible rewards of the golden years be that transcend the glorious enthusiasms, unfettered optimisms, and just pure physical conveniences of being young? Or, was Browning simply trying to sucker us all into a fait accompli, the hopeful outcome of which is the envy of the very youth that the aged often envy so much?There is little enough envy of the aged today. I approach these years with great caution, recognizing that how I look upon those who are two decades older than myself will, in turn, condition me to see myself in those years much in the way that I see them now. “Aging” is not something anyone really wants to do. We want to, at best, “grow older”, a perspective that carries with it a more positive spin: growing wiser, growing up, or simply “growing” with all of its new-age connotations of personal enlightenment and becoming. I am not “aging”, I am “becoming at one”.The language we have adopted to talk about the time-course of life, and particularly about the years in the latter third of that course, does much to frame both how we live those years and how we anticipate them in our youth. Our expectations are ones of decline, physical debilitation and mental infirmity. We “retire”, as in withdrawal into seclusion, away from the mainstream of life and into the backwater eddy of inaction. On the shelf.Much of this view has been reinforced by how humanity has approached examining this aspect of its own time course through science. We study aging with an eye to how its effects influence the abilities of those so afflicted to perform or operate compared to those who still have a grasp on their full faculties. And, of course, we find that as people grow older, they do not approach life in the same way as do younger people.Part of our view on life comes from the very way in which science is funded: those interested in the last of life often receive their support from the National Institute on Aging, not the National Institute on The Last of Life for Which the First Was Made. Research agendas often focus on identifying sources of infirmity and potential prostheses, either physical or social, that can ease the lives of the elderly on their way toward achieving the goal of successful aging. All too often, success in aging means imposing relatively few demands on social resources or on the lives of younger people, such as family members. In our “ageist” society, elderliness is not generally equated with status and stature. Less and less, the young “listen” to the old out of deep interest in their lives and their experiences. Wisdom is the providence of the freshly matured and recently educated.The shortcomings of life in the advancing years are many and well-documented in the research literature. Memory spans decrease, information retrieval becomes less reliable, and new information is less readily assimilated. As people become older, they appear to rely more and more on automatic processing of information, quick associations and the like, rather than deliberative and conscious reasoning [1]. For the older mind, intuition is at least moderately preferred over analysis. For example, younger people tend to interpret stories analytically, focusing on details, while older people tend to focus less on a story’s details and more on its “gist” and its underlying significance to things that are important to them [2], and tend to do better at grasping and dealing with information in terms of its holistic meaning [3 and 4].The effects of these differences in information processing between young and old can be seen in practical matters of everyday life, such as decision making and judgment. Johnson [5], for example, found that older adults use simplifying decision strategies more often than younger adults. These strategies, such as noncompensatory rules that consider only the positive or the negative aspects of a decision option but not both, relieve one of the psychological burden of making complex and effortful tradeoffs, at the possible expense of efficiency and accuracy. Chasseigne et al. [6] found that as people age, they become less consistent in their use of information in making judgments and predictions; even reducing the overall information load and demands on memory does little to improve the reliability of their judgments. ¹     

Towards a rational strategy for the human settlement of space

This paper revisits the core issues of space policy from the viewpoint of optimal decision theory. First it argues for a metric: maximizing the probability that humans and their technology in space someday reach what Rostow called the “economic takeoff” point where autonomous growth becomes possible, not bound by the rate of growth on earth. Next it discusses three concrete requirements to reach that point: benefits to earth which exceed costs to earth, large and diverse enough “exports” from space to earth, and advancements in technology and infrastructure. Energy from space (ES) is now one of the most promising export possibilities, based on what was learned in the last open US government effort on that topic, “JIETSSP,” led jointly by NSF and NASA. I review several options for ES, and propose a new one which, while slightly riskier, offers real hope of electricity at a price that could compete with coal and fission-plus-enrichment.     

Putting Humpty Dumpty back together again? The structures of knowledge and the future of the social sciences

Fifty years ago it was clear what the social sciences were, what they did and where they were going. This consensus was the product of the long-term construction of the structures of knowledge that resulted in the institutionalization of a set of disciplines that would function to guarantee ordered change in the social sphere in the name of “progress” through scientific control, exercised by “experts” and based on “hard facts”. After 1945, the scholarly legitimacy of the premises underlying the partitions separating the disciplines and the practical usefulness of the distinctions declined and from 1968 were overtly contested. It is contended that the structures of knowledge, including the social sciences, have entered into secular crisis and thus a period characterized by the heightened transformative capacity of agency typical of transitions. Since no outcome may be predetermined for the organization of future knowledge forms, this paper ends by considering modes of scholarly participation in the transformation of the social sciences.

“Don’t you think you’d be safer down on the ground?” Alice went on, not with any idea of making another riddle, but simply in her good-natured anxiety for the queer creature. “That wall is so very narrow!” Lewis Carroll, Through the Looking-Glass and What Alice Found There

Fifty years ago a serious discussion focused on the future of the “social sciences” collectively might have sounded at best like self-reflexive narcissism or simply a waste of time. At worst it might have seemed merely absurd. That is not to say that there were not significant disagreements within and across the social science disciplines. There was, however, a widely held consensus on the intellectual and institutional organization of knowledge that recognized boundaries among the humanities, the social sciences and the sciences, and the singular disciplines of which they were composed.The exposition that follows will begin with a sketch of the historical construction of this relational structure, both constitutive of and constituted by material reality, which left open the possibility for theoretical and methodological innovation and substantive development but at the same time disciplined the trajectory of such developments.This sketch will be followed by an overview of how the upheavals of the 1960’s dramatically foregrounded the premises of disciplinary autonomy (indeed, that had never been totally devoid of controversy). As the foundational principles of theoretical approaches, methodological practices, and proprietary subject-matters underwent radical change and race, gender, and class constraints on the make-up of faculties and student-bodies were opened up through a combination of critical reflection and direct action, questions concerning the future intellectual and institutional centers for the production of legitimate and authoritative knowledge of human reality emerged dramatically.Finally, the crisis in the long-term evolution of the internal contradictions of the “two cultures” structure of knowledge and thus also of the social sciences suggests imminent structural transformation. No outcome is predetermined for the organization of future knowledge forms and their institutional organization, but elective agency will be a vital ingredient in their construction and in imagining the possible alternative social structures of which they will be an inseparable part. The last question to be addressed, then, concerns the modes of scholarly participation in this transition.     

The two faces of organizational information

Organizational information, i.e. “facts” given and taken, and inferences drawn and established by participants within an organizational situation, may be examined in terms of its import to the relationship between an organization and its environment. A “locus” for organizational information is established in which information is classified as: (a) either inner- or other-directed: (b) either internally- or externally-based; and (c) either self- or other-referencing. Examples of organizational information in each of the eight possible categories are readily identified. Much, if not most, organizational information is probably best regarded as “two-faced”, i.e. as the product of inner- and other-directed needs taken together. For this reason, the basis, or justification of any item of organizational information is often obscure. This is seen to have consequences for organizational self-learning and self-delusion, and for the maintenance of organizational credibility and organizational secrets.     

The use of on-line summative assessment in an undergraduate financial accounting course

According to the Quality Assurance Agency [QAA (2006). Section 6: Assessment of students, Code of practice for the assurance of academic quality and standards in higher education. <http://www.qaa.ac.uk/>. Accessed 14.03.2007] “Assessment describes any processes that appraise an individual’s knowledge, understanding, abilities or skills” and is inextricably linked to a course or programme’s intended learning outcomes. Assessment also has a fundamental effect on students’ learning where it serves a variety of purposes including evaluation, feedback and motivation. Assessment also provides a performance indicator for both students and staff. Computer-aided assessment (CAA) offers an option for “sustainable assessment” and provides opportunities for creating innovative assessment practices that help engage students and increase their motivation for learning. This paper reports the findings of a qualitative study where a series of on-line summative assessments were introduced into a first-year financial accounting course. Feedback from students obtained from an evaluative survey and focus group interviews indicates that assessment played a significant role in the teaching/learning process. That is, students perceived a beneficial impact on learning, motivation, and engagement.     

Leveraged investor disclosures and concentrations of risk

We analyze a model where investors (e.g., hedge funds) need to borrow from lenders with heterogeneous risk-exposures and risk-management motives. Investors may obtain advantageous terms of borrowing by disclosing their investment strategy, thereby revealing its correlation to the lender's existing risk exposure. Investors risk being “front-run” by their lender if they disclose, however. We show that in the presence of front-running, the “unraveling” result of full disclosure may not hold. In addition, disclosure regulation results in a loss of welfare since investors compelled to disclose will mitigate front-running by choosing a lender with sufficiently high correlation, thus exacerbating concentrations of risk.     

An “American Dream” theory of corporate executive Fraud

In this paper, we first describe a “Broken Trust” theory that was introduced by Albrecht el al. [Albrecht, W. S., Albrecht, C. C., & Albrecht, C. O. (2004). Fraud and corporate executives: Agency, Stewardship and Broken Trust. Journal of Forensic Accounting, 5, 109–130] to explain corporate executive Fraud. The Broken Trust theory is primarily based on an “Agency” theory from economic literature and a “Stewardship” theory from psychology literature. We next describe an “American Dream” theory from sociology literature to complement Albrecht el al.'s (2004) Broken Trust theory. Like the Broken Trust theory, the American Dream theory relates to a “Fraud Triangle” concept to explain corporate executive Fraud. Finally, we provide some anecdotal evidence from recent high profile corporate executive Fraud to explore the American Dream theory. We conclude our thoughts on corporate executive Fraud from a teaching perspective.     

On Accounting-Based Valuation Formulae*

This paper considers accounting-based valuation formulae. Its initial focus is on two problems related to residual income valuation (RIV). First, insofar valuation depends on theresent value of expected dividends per share, applying RIV requires clean surplus accounting on a per share basis. Awkwardly, equity transactions that change the number of shares outstanding generally imply eps ≠ Δ bvps − dps. A clean surplus equality holds only if one “re-conceptualizes” either end-of-period bvps or eps as a forced “plug”. Second, one cannot circumvent the per share issue by evaluating RIV on a total dollar value basis unless one introduces relatively subtle MM-type restrictions. In light of RIV’s unsatisfactory aspects, the paper proposes an alternative to RIV. This new approach maintains a strict eps-focus. It derives by replacing bvps _t in RIV with eps _{t +1} capitalized (i.e. divided by r). One obtains a formula such that the current market price equals next-period expected earnings capitalized plus the present value of expected abnormal earnings growth, referred to as AEG. A number of propositions then demonstrate the advantages of the AEG approach as compared to RIV. These results follow because eps _t+1 capitalized generally approximates market price better than bvps _t .*An earlier version of this paper was titled “Residual Income Valuation The Problems”.This revised version was published online in August 2005 with a corrected cover date.     

The effect of cognitive style and sponsorship bias on the treatment of opportunity costs in resource allocation decisions

The incorporation of opportunity cost is stressed in normative approaches to resource allocation decisions. Empirical evidence has revealed a variety of behaviours. A consequence of inappropriate treatment of opportunity costs is an incorrect assessment of the economic consequences of resource allocation decisions. Improved understanding of why some managers treat opportunity costs inappropriately permits identifying situations where the incorrect economic evaluations will lead to sub-optimal resource allocation and therefore provides a basis for remedial action. This study identifies two conditional factors which potentially influence the way managers respond to opportunity cost information.These factors are managers' cognitive style and whether or not managers sponsor a project (project sponsorship), and it is argued that they influence managers' decisions on opportunity costs in situations in which opportunity cost implications are implicit. In particular, the paper proposes, first, that in the absence of project sponsorship, managers with an “intuitive” style of “taking in data” will tend to incorporate opportunity costs in their economic decisions whereas those wiht a “sensation” style will not. Second, it is suggested that because sponsorship encourages managers to ignore negative economic signals (sponsorship bias) any effects of cognitive style will be moderated in conditions where sponsorship is evident.A laboratory experiment with managers as subjects was used to examine these propositions. The results indicated that intuitive managers tended to incorporate opportunity costs in their decisions whereas sensation individuals appeared to focus more on the directness of the relationship between expenditure and a project to determine the relevance of the cost. Opportunity cost implications tended not to be identified by the sensation group. Evidence was found that sponsorship moderated the influence of cognitive style on decisions to include opportunity costs.     

Galton's Error and the under-representation of systematic risk

Science progresses by improving its measurement apparatus. This holds true in finance too. The new methodology of “complete identification”, using simple algebraic geometry, throws new light on Galton's Error in finance and economics and the resulting misinformation of investors. Mutual funds conventionally advertise their relative systematic market risk, or “betas”, to potential investors based on incomplete measurement by unidirectional bivariate projections: they commit Galton's Error by under-representing their systematic risk. Consequently, far too many mutual funds are marketed as “defensive” and too few as “aggressive”. Using the new methodology it is found that, out of a total of 3217 mutual funds, 2047 funds (63.7%) claimed to be defensive based on the current industry standard methodology, but only 608 (18.9%) actually are. This under-representation of systematic risk leads to inefficiencies in the capital allocation process, since biased betas lead to mispricing of mutual funds. Complete bivariate projections produce a correct representation of the epistemic uncertainty inherent in the bivariate measurement of relative market risk and provide a new CAPM taxonomy. Our conclusions have also serious consequences for the proper “bench-marking” and recent regulatory proposals for the mutual funds industry. Extension of the new methodology to multivariate systematic risk measurement by Asset Pricing Theory (APT) is suggested.     

Auditors and base rates revisited

In their 1981 study “Are Auditors' Judgments Sufficiently Regressive?” [Journal of Accounting Research (Autumn 1981) pp. 323–349] Joyce & Biddle found that auditors underweighted base rates relative to a normative standard (Bayes' theorem), but appeared to be more sensitive to base rates than other subject groups. This study extends their results by addressing three questions raised by their findings: (1) Do auditors generally possess greater ability to recognize and utilize base rates than other decision makers? (2) Did the auditing context of the Joyce & Biddle experimental problems influence the results? and (3) Is it the framing of the experimental problems that influenced the apparent integration of base rates?Using students and auditors as subjects, the following five experiments replicate selected Joyce & Biddle experimental problems. The results suggest that it is the framing of the Joyce & Biddle experimental problem that drive their results rather than attributes of auditors or auditing context.     

Accounting elites and accounting theory: A reply to Paul Montagna

In response to Paul Montagna's review, the author draws attention to a central claim of Accounting Regulation and Elite Structures: that despite vigorous efforts it is not possible to identify separate schools of accounting thought in Sweden. Instead, what one finds are common bases of reasoning in appeals to “practice”. Consumer-oriented and producer-oriented appeals are identified. It is argued that empirical research is not governed by a Grand Theory. Norms of accounting practice are argued to develop out of the interplay between individuals arguing from points of view they consider to be right. In communicative interaction between individuals representing diverse interests, there is a high likelihood that communication will be distorted. In such situations appeals to the “practicality” of a proposed solution are likely to be successfully made.     

Accounting and prudential regulation: from uncomfortable bedfellows to perfect partners?

Recent initiatives to improve the public information about individual firms have brought to the fore significant differences in perspective between accountants and prudential regulators. We examine the reasons for these differences and propose ways in which they could be reconciled within a broader framework aimed at identifying the type of information conducive to the proper functioning and stability of the financial system. We argue that such information should concern three characteristics: estimates of current financial condition; estimates of risk profile; and measures of the uncertainty surrounding those estimates. So far, efforts have mainly focused on the first characteristic, with the second having drawn attention only recently and the third having been largely neglected. We propose a strategy to reconcile different perspectives based on two principles: first, in the long-term, the “decoupling” of the objective of accurate financial reporting by the firm from that of instilling the desired degree of prudence in its behaviour; second, a “parallel transition” process towards that objective so that at all points the prudential measures can neutralise any undesirable implications of changes in financial reporting standards on financial stability.     

Price clustering in foreign exchange spot markets

This paper documents the existence of price clustering in the foreign exchange spot market for the German mark, the Japanese yen, the United Kingdom pound, the French franc, the Italian lira, and the Swedish krona. The U.S. dollar exchange rate indicative quotes for these currencies tend to exhibit clustering around right-most digits that end in either a “zero” or a “five.” The tendency for exchange rates to cluster has increased with increases in trading volume and volatility. Moreover, the tendency for exchange rates to cluster differs across currencies.