行业配置的羊群现象——中国开放式基金的实证研究

本文利用2002年至2009年中国市场股票型和混合型开放式基金半年度的完整持仓数据,研究了基金行业配置的相关性。研究发现,相邻两期基金行业需求之间的平均相关系数为32%,说明基金的投资行为在行业层面存在羊群现象;该现象不完全是基金个股的羊群现象在行业层面的表现,也不是全部由基于规模一账面市值比的风格投资行为所驱动。进一步的研究发现,该现象的相关实证特征与相关信号理论的预期相一致。     

Institutional ownership changes and returns around analysts’ earnings forecast release events: Evidence from Taiwan

Traditional data sources do not have institutional holding data on a daily basis. Because of this, most prior empirical studies of institutional herding have focused on quarterly or annual data. The problem, however, with using quarterly or annual data on institutional holdings is that these data may not reveal institutional herding if it occurs over a shorter time interval. For this study, we make use of data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE). Unlike traditional data sources, the TSE provides daily institutional holdings information. The use of this detailed data allows us to make more interesting analysis and inferences. In this study, we examine the relationship between institutional ownership changes and returns localized around analysts’ earnings forecast release events. Analysis of institutional ownership and return data around the earnings release event allows us to investigate institutional herding and feedback behavior in a different level. Our major results are as follows: (1) there exists a relation between company specific attributes and institutional herding, (2) observed changes in institutional ownership and contemporaneous return are mainly the results of inter-day price impact of herding, (3) institutional investors show evidence of being informed traders in buying but not selling.     

Institutional Trade Persistence and Long‐Term Equity Returns

Recent studies show that single‐quarter institutional herding positively predicts short‐term returns. Motivated by the theoretical herding literature, which emphasizes endogenous persistence in decisions over time, we estimate the effect of multiquarter institutional buying and selling on stock returns. Using both regression and portfolio tests, we find that persistent institutional trading negatively predicts long‐term returns: persistently sold stocks outperform persistently bought stocks at long horizons. The negative association between returns and institutional trade persistence is not subsumed by past returns or other stock characteristics, is concentrated among smaller stocks, and is stronger for stocks with higher institutional ownership.     

我国证券投资基金羊群行为的实证研究

论文通过LSV及其修正模型,运用2003年第一季度到2009年第四季度我国开放式证券投资基金的季度投资组合数据,对我国证券投资基金羊群行为进行了实证分析,发现我国存在较明显的羊群行为,基金卖出羊群一般明显大于买入羊群,且羊群行为在第2季度最明显。     

The Effects of Analysts’ Herding on Traders: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market

The primary aim of this study is to carry out an investigation into the effects of analysts’ herding on different types of traders in Taiwan stock market. Our empirical results reveal that smaller traders are more readily affected by analyst herding, essentially as a result of their lack of experience and their lack of access to relevant information sources, which leads to them reacting directly to the central point of the recommendations made by the analysts. Our findings also reveal that both small and large traders are affected by analyst herding in the recommendations provided by the analysts relating specifically to buying. As for the evidence on analyst herding in recommendations relating to selling, larger traders are invariably found to have made use of their informational advantages to act in advance of such recommendations.     

Does Investment Horizon Matter? Disentangling the Effect of Institutional Herding on Stock Prices

This study finds that, over short horizons, herding by short‐term institutions promotes price discovery. In contrast, herding by long‐term institutions drives stock prices away from fundamentals over the same periods. Furthermore, while the positive predictability of short‐term institutional herding for stock prices is more pronounced for small stocks and stocks with high growth opportunities, the negative association between long‐term institutional herding and stock prices is stronger for stocks whose valuations are highly uncertain and subjective. Finally, we show that the destabilizing effect of institutional herding persistence documented in the recent literature is entirely driven by persistent herding by long‐term institutions.     

Institutional herding and its price impact: Evidence from the corporate bond market

We examine the extent to which institutional investors herd in the U.S. corporate bond market and the price impact of their herding behavior. We find that the level of institutional herding in corporate bonds is substantially higher than what is documented for equities, and that sell herding is much stronger and more persistent than buy herding. The price impact of herding is also highly asymmetric. While buy herding facilitates price discovery, sell herding causes transitory yet large price distortions. Such price destabilizing effect of sell herding is particularly pronounced for speculative-grade, small, and illiquid bonds, and during the financial crisis.     

Together we invest? Individual and institutional investors' trading behaviour in Poland

This paper contributes to the debate about individual and institutional investors' trading behaviour with new evidence from the Polish stock market. While most existing studies focus on institutional investors' trading in developed markets, we test for the presence of herding during market up- and downswings on an emerging market. Our unique approach is to combine an established method relying on daily prices with institutional features of the Warsaw Stock Exchange. It enables us to separate individuals from institutions by examining two trading mechanisms with different investor structures. The empirical results suggest that individuals engage in herding during market downswings, while there is less evidence of imitating trading behaviour in bullish markets. Regardless of the state of the market, institutions' trading behaviour does not appear to exhibit herd behaviour. Further evidence suggests that herding by individuals becomes less pronounced over time.     

INSTITUTIONAL TRADING AND OPENING PRICE BEHAVIOR: EVIDENCE FROM A FAST‐EMERGING MARKET

Using daily and intraday data, we investigate the cross‐sectional relation between stock prices and institutional trading in the Taiwan stock market. Consistent with the investigative herding hypothesis, we find that institutional herding exists because of institutional positive feedback trading behavior rather than following trades made by other institutions, as suggested by the information cascade hypothesis. Moreover, the positive correlation between institutional trade imbalance and stock returns mainly comes from institutional positive feedback trading. The institutional trading decisions rely on returns measured not only over the lagged trading day but also over the opening session during the same day.     

Determinants of cost efficiencies in the mutual fund industry

We evaluate determinants of cost efficiencies in the U.S. mutual fund industry for 1998-2003. Our empirical results show that cost increases in this industry have been less than proportional to increases in assets. We find that funds without a 12b-1 plan show larger economies of scale than funds with a 12b-1 plan; institutional funds show greater economies of scale than do retail funds; and that fund families that are more focused in their investment objectives reap benefits of lower fund management costs than do fund families that are more diversified in their investment objectives.     

Causes and consequences of short-term institutional herding

This paper provides new evidence on the causes and consequences of herding by institutional investors. Using a comprehensive database of every transaction made by financial institutions in the German stock market, we show that institutions exhibit herding behavior on a daily basis. Herding intensity depends on stock characteristics including past returns and volatility. Return reversals indicate a destabilizing impact of herds on stock prices in the short term. Results from panel regressions suggest that herding is mainly unintentional and partly driven by the use of similar risk models. Our findings confirm the importance of macro-prudential aspects for banking regulation.     

From COVID-19 herd immunity to investor herding in international stock markets: The role of government and regulatory restrictions

We study if government response to the novel coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic can mitigate investor herding behaviour in international stock markets. Our empirical analysis is informed by daily stock market data from 72 countries from both developed and emerging economies in the first quarter of 2020. The government response to the COVID-19 outbreak is measured by means of the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, where higher scores are associated with greater stringency. Three main findings are in order. First, results show evidence of investor herding in international stock markets. Second, we document that the Oxford Government Response Stringency Index mitigates investor herding behaviour, by way of reducing multidimensional uncertainty. Third, short-selling restrictions, temporarily imposed by the national and supranational regulatory authorities of the European Union, appear to exert a mitigating effect on herding. Finally, our results are robust to a range of model specifications.     

Funding liquidity and equity liquidity in the subprime crisis period: Evidence from the ETF market

Using index and financial exchange-traded funds (ETFs), this study explores the relation between funding liquidity and equity liquidity during the subprime crisis period. Our empirical results show that a higher degree of funding illiquidity leads to an increase in bid–ask spread and a reduction in both market depth and net buying imbalance. Such findings indicate that an increase in funding liquidity can improve equity liquidity, with a stronger effect for the financial ETFs than for the index ETFs. Our study provides a better overall understanding of the effect of the liquidity–supplier funding constraint during the subprime crisis period.     

GLAMOUR VERSUS VALUE: TRADING BEHAVIOR OF INSTITUTIONS AND INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS

We design a new metric to measure the net buying and selling by institutions and individual investors and find that from 1980 to 2004 institutional investors were net buyers of growth stocks and net sellers of value stocks, implying that individual investors were net buyers of value stocks and net sellers of glamour stocks. The institutional preference for glamour and value stocks seems to be related to sell‐side analysts' recommendations and recent favorable stock price performances, especially during the post‐1994 period. Finally, the institutional buying of growth stocks and sale of value stocks was not based on superior information.     

The price impact of foreign institutional herding on large-size stocks in the Taiwan stock market

This study constructs a panel threshold regression model to explore the price impact of foreign institutional herding of firms listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange during January 2000 to June 2008. Our panel threshold model is constructed to explore the price impact of foreign institutional investors?? herding in the Taiwan stock market after controlling the firm size. By examining the presence of threshold effect, this study analyzes whether firm size would obviously and asymmetrically affect the explanation for the effect of changes in foreign investors?? share ownership on abnormal returns. The empirical results of this study find the significant evidence of threshold effect which divides the stocks into large-size and small-size firms. It is found that foreign institutional investors in the Taiwan stock market tend to hold large-size stocks listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange. There is an apparent increase in the subsequent abnormal returns on large-size stocks bought in bulk by foreign investors. The signals of changes in share ownership initiated by foreign institutional investors would reveal further information for improving the performance of asset reallocation decisions in Taiwan. The panel threshold model constructed in this paper well describes the price impact of institutional herding yet eschews the possibly subjective data snooping issue resulting from the two-pass sorting method as proposed by previous related researches.     

Are there monitoring benefits to institutional ownership? Evidence from seasoned equity offerings

We provide new evidence on the monitoring benefits from institutional ownership by analyzing the impact of institutional ownership on stock price and operating performance following seasoned equity offerings, a setting where the effects of monitoring are likely to be especially important. We find that announcement returns are positively and significantly related to total and active institutional ownership levels and concentration. Post-issue stock returns are positively and significantly related to the contemporaneous post-issue changes in total and active institutional ownership and the concentration of their shareholdings. Operating performance improvements are also related to institutional monitoring in the one, two, and three years following the equity issue. Our results continue to hold even after accounting for the possibility that institutional investors have an informational advantage that enables them to identify and invest in subsequently better performing firms. We also empirically eliminate the possibility that our findings are driven by institutions buying past winners and selling past losers as a way to window-dress their portfolio holdings.     

Institutional Herding in the ADR Market

This study examines institutional herding in the ADR market between 1985 and 1998. We find a significant positive relation between changes in institutional ownership and ADR returns over the same period. The positive relation persists after we control for the momentum effect in the US stock markets. We also find that in the ADR market, past winners (losers) in the herding period continue to be the winners (losers) in the post-herding period. The lack of a returns reversal suggests institutional herding is related to momentum trading. However, the positive relation between institutional ownership changes and ADR returns remains after controlling for momentum trading in the ADR market. Our results also rule out that positive feedback trading is related to institutional herding in the ADR market.     

Institutional Herding

Institutional investors' demand for a security this quarteris positively correlated with their demand for the securitylast quarter. We attribute this to institutional investors followingeach other into and out of the same securities ("herding") andinstitutional investors following their own lag trades. Althoughinstitutional investors are "momentum" traders, little of theirherding results from momentum trading. Moreover, institutionaldemand is more strongly related to lag institutional demandthan lag returns. Results are most consistent with the hypothesisthat institutions herd as a result of inferring informationfrom each other's trades.     

The turn-of-the-year effect and tax-loss-selling by institutional investors

Prior studies attribute the turn-of-the-year effect whereby small capitalization stocks earn unusually high returns in early January to tax-loss-selling by individual investors and window-dressing by institutional investors. My results suggest that a significant portion of the effect on turn-of-the-year returns that prior studies attribute to window-dressing is actually attributable to tax-loss-selling by institutional investors. Among small capitalization stocks, I find that institutional investors with strong tax incentives and weak window-dressing incentives realize significantly more losses in the fourth quarter than in the first three quarters of the calendar year, and that their fourth quarter realized losses have a significant impact on turn-of-the-year returns. A one percentage point change in these institutional investors' fourth quarter realized losses scaled by a firm's market capitalization results in an increase of 47 basis points in the firm's average daily return over the first three trading days of January, which represents a 46 percent change for the mean firm.     

Did institutions herd during the internet bubble?

We examine the trading behavior of institutional investors during the internet bubble and crash of 1998–2001, and its impact on stock prices. Similar to some recent findings concerning the trading behavior of hedge funds and NASDAQ 100 stocks, we find that during the bubble all types of institutions herded with great intensity into internet stocks for a comprehensive sample of institutional investors and internet stocks. In addition to this, we present three entirely new results. First, institutional herding was much greater than what can be explained by momentum trading. Second, institutions as a group continued to increase their holdings of internet stocks for two quarters past the market peak during the first quarter of 2000, and three quarters past the peak for individual stock prices, suggesting that institutions were unable to time the price peaks. Finally and most importantly, we find positive abnormal returns contemporaneous with institutional herding and negative abnormal returns (reversals) at the point that herding ceased. This finding suggests that institutions’ trading created temporary price pressures, and may have contributed to the bubble.