The cyclical impact of EU cohesion policy in fast growing EU countries

Most of the newly acceded central and east European EU countries are among the main beneficiaries of EU Cohesion Policy. The main objective of this policy is to improve the long-term growth and employment prospects of the supported regions, and thereby to support convergence towards higher levels of per capita income. In the short run, however, EU Cohesion Policy may at times amplify macroeconomic challenges for supported countries. In periods of a downturn of the economy it can have a stabilising impact. During periods of unsustainably fast economic growth, however, its short-term demand effects may contribute to internal and/or external macroeconomic imbalances. Economic policymakers should thus ensure that EU Cohesion Policy enhances long-term productivity, while avoiding, in times of overheating, an increased risk of unsustainable developments as a result of the additional demand stimulus from EU Cohesion Policy. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The authors are grateful to Martin Bijsterbosch, Gesa Miehe-Nordmeyer, Ad van Riet, Philipp Rother and Desom Weller for their helpful comments.     

The future of cooperation between the EU and ACP countries

Something over 20 years after the first Lomé Agreement came into force, most of the ACP countries are still among the poorest in the world. Why have these countries' situations not improved despite the Agreements? Why has their share of total EC imports from developing countries fallen in spite of the tariff preferences they are granted? What conclusions ought to be drawn for future cooperation between the EC and ACP countries?     

The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries

This paper investigates the importance of global risk factors and the predictability of returns of the 13 EU accession countries, using both unconditional and conditional asset-pricing tests during the turbulent period of 1997–2002. Applied for the first time to the full sample of EU accession countries, we conclude that the world excess return has only somewhat importance for Hungary, Poland and Turkey, indicating low financial liberalization and low integration with the world. The real G-7 interest rate followed by the world excess return, global foreign exchange rate and global inflation rates are the most influential in their explanation of the variation of local market returns. Predictability of local returns is high and variant; global instrumental variables have higher predictive power for eight countries, especially for Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania and Hungary, whereas local instruments are more important for the Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland and Slovenia. The failure of the conditional asset-pricing model to correctly price assets confirms partial integration with the world. Except for Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia and Malta, predictability cannot be explained by time variation in economic risk premiums, but by local information, market inefficiency and/or investor irrationality.     

Macroeconomic adjustment: the Baltic states versus euro area crisis countries

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have succeeded in rapidly reducing their current account deficits despite fixed exchange rates. Which factors have played a major role in this? What similarities, and what differences, do the Baltic states show compared to Greece and Portugal? What insights can be gained for the political debate on the euro area debt crisis?     

Heterogeneous effects of competitiveness shocks on macroeconomic performance across euro area countries

This paper considers how competitiveness impacts macroeconomic performance in 11 euro area countries. VAR models are estimated for the individual countries using quarterly data from 1995Q4 to 2013Q4. Besides unit labour costs as a competitiveness measure, the models include GDP, the current account balance and domestic credit. The empirical analyses show that changes in unit labour costs help explain GDP dynamics in the short and medium term in most countries, whereas they have little explanatory power for the current account balance or domestic credit for most countries. Overall, the effects of the unit labour costs vary substantially across the countries in the euro area. The heterogeneity suggests that policy measures aiming to improve economic growth, correct current account imbalances and ensure financial stability need to take country‐specific features into account.     

Export product range and economic growth in the EU countries

We analyse the number of different HS8 products in the EU countries’ exports in 1995–2015. We review what share, or coverage, of the total possible number of these products the countries have exported each year. The EU15 countries have typically witnessed a slow rise in this coverage rate, that is, a widening of their extensive margins. The exception is Finland where the share has declined considerably. On the other hand, Ireland, Greece, Portugal and the new member countries have seen a dramatic increase in their export product coverage. We analyse how the development in the coverage rate and, as a comparison, the diversification of exports as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman index are associated with GDP per capita growth. We find that changes in the former measure are positively associated with economic growth after we have controlled for GDP per capita catching‐up as well as investment and export activity. We also find that smaller EU economies do not specialise more than large ones in their exports as could perhaps be assumed.     

The EU’s new competition policy standards

In a 2008 article in the EU’s Competition Policy Newsletter, Peter Lowe, Director General of the EU Commission’s Directorate Competition, synthesised the experience of his office with regard to the design of competition policy institutions for the 21st century. A year earlier, he had co-authored another article, appearing in the same venue, recapitulating the Commission’s lessons learned from the Energy Sector Inquiry and the need for effective unbundling of energy transmission networks. The reader of both, at first astounded by the apparent gap between policymaking reality and reflections upon it, soon detects a rather pragmatic approach to shaping regulatory agendas. But are there limits to expediency?     

The competing roles of variety seeking in new brand adoption

We examine how consumers' attribute-level variety-seeking behaviors can explain their propensity to adopt a new brand in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) market. We leverage consumers' purchase history among extant brands prior to a new brand introduction as an indicator of the new brand adoption upon its launch. We incorporate variety seeking at two product attribute levels – brand and flavor – and find that variety seeking along these two dimensions predicts different outcomes for new brand adoptions. The estimation results of our discrete-time hazard model show that consumers' brand-level and flavor-level variety-seeking behaviors affect their likelihood to adopt a new brand in different manners: consumers who purchase various brands are more likely to adopt a new brand, whereas those who choose various flavors are less likely to adopt a new brand. The results also show that the new brand's price promotions and in-store displays can affect the role of variety seeking in consumers' new brand adoption. We assess the robustness of our findings by replicating our empirical model with an additional measure of variety seeking as well as a variety-seeking measure in another product category.     

EU preferential market access conditions for the least developed countries

The EU has opened up its market to duty and quota free imports from the least developed countries. This article outlines the key elements of this initiative and the factors determining its likely effects and argues that the EU must also liberalise and reform its prefernntial rules of origin if the initiative is to be effective in achieving its objectives.     

The impact of adoption timing on new service usage and early disadoption

Post-adoption usage can be a crucial element in obtaining substantial revenues from new service introduction, especially when adopters display low usage levels or decide to disadopt the service altogether. Here, the authors specifically examine the effects of adoption timing on post-adoption usage and disadoption. Using a longitudinal, individual-level usage data set of 6296 adopters of a new telecom service, they show that the earliest adopters have lower initial usage levels than do later adopters. However, early adopters show increasing usage after adoption, whereas late adopters tend to decrease their usage over time. Also, disadoption rates are higher among later adopters.     

EU integration of transition countries: Overlap of requisites and remaining tasks

Transition and reorientation towards Western Europe have been the two decisive challenges for the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) since 1989. Whereas in the early 1990s the transition from the central planning system to a market economy was the main goal of economic policies, the requirements for closer integration with the Western European countries have since then increasingly gained in importance. How do the two processes overlap? What requirements remain to be met before the candidate countries can join the European Union?     

e-banking culture: A comparison of EU 27 countries and Portuguese case in the EU 27 retail banking context

The aim of this research is two-fold. Firstly we conducted a wise comparative analysis of EU 27 countries and secondly we identified distinct e-banking user segments of Portuguese citizens. We used a questionnaire for data collection (n=2358) and Latent Class Models (LCM) for data analysis. LCM revealed three segments in EU 27 (Portugal is in the poorest cluster, concerning the indicators used, with Greece, Spain and Cyprus) and two e-banking user segments in Portuguese citizens: Those who do not risk (49%), and Those who risk (51%). Our findings enable e-banking managers for taking appropriate strategic decisions.     

Eastward enlargement—Benefits and costs of EU entry for the transition countries

The Central and East European transition countries are pinning considerable hopes for their economic future on entry into the European Union. However, given the huge amount of catching up they still have to do in economic terms, the tough entry conditions they have to meet and the limited amount of help the Union is willing to provide, it is questionable whether the benefits these countries will derive from entering the EU outweigh the corresponding substantial costs.     

The reform of the EU budget: Finding new own resources

The following paper addresses the ongoing debate on the questions of the composition and fi nancing of the European Union’s common budget. The authors argue in favour of a significant enlargement of the budget, together with a profound reform of its composition and financing.     

Genetically modified foods: Consumer awareness,opinions and attitudes in selected EU countries

The dynamic development of biotechnology in recent years has raised serious public concerns about the possible risks arising from genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The aim of this study was to investigate consumer opinions regarding genetically modified (GM) foods. The research also aimed at verifying the differences in the attitudes of respondents from two, relatively culturally diverse research sites. To obtain empirical data a face‐to‐face survey was conducted in 2015. It covered a total of 976 randomly selected individuals. The study was performed in the capital of the United Kingdom—London and the Polish capital—Warsaw. The results of the study show that almost half of the respondents were familiar with the GMO concept. According to the respondents, the greatest benefits arising from the genetic modification are: enhanced shelf‐life of food and crops' resistance to extreme climatic conditions. The main disadvantages were: unpredictable consequences of deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) modification, production of species‐specific toxins and food allergenicity. Over two thirds of people surveyed support the idea of the obligatory labeling of GM foods. The information presented on food packaging should primarily include potential contraindications to the consumption, indication that food was produced using transgenic sources and a warning about potential allergenicity. An almost equal number of respondents showed intention for purchasing GM food products, an intention to act otherwise, or was not decided. As many as 27.7% of survey participants showed negative attitudes toward GM foods, whereas only 19.8% predominantly positive. It is worth noticing that, with only one exception, no statistically significant differences were observed between the opinions of Polish and British respondents.     

中国信保启动“理赔绿色通道”为企业解难

近期,中东地区局势持续动荡,对我国企业的海外利益构成严重威胁。记者从中国出口信用保险公司（以下简称中国信保）了解到,中东一些国家是我国工程承包企业的重要市场,长期以来,我国有众多企业在该地区承包工程。     

The impact of the euro crisis on Switzerland

The euro area crisis is the main external factor threatening the Swiss economy. In 2010 and 2011, the Swiss franc was rapidly appreciating against the euro, causing a drop in exports, losses for the tourism business and a rise in unemployment. This paper gives an overview of developments in the euro area and explains the reasons for the strength of the franc, the effects it had on the economy and the measures taken to curtail its appreciation.     

The evolution and adoption of equity crowdfunding: entrepreneur and investor entry into a new market

Equity crowdfunding (ECF) offers entrepreneurs an online social media marketplace where they can access numerous potential investors who, in exchange for an ownership stake, may supply them with finance. In this paper, we describe the evolution of this market in the UK. Using an inductive qualitative longitudinal research design, we analyse the emerging views of entrepreneurs and investors towards ECF. Our interviewees include large and small-scale investors, as well as market participants who have chosen not to invest or raise funds via ECF. We find that the large financial flows to entrepreneurs in the UK via the ECF platforms, nearly half a billion GBP since 2011, have probably been largely incremental to traditional sources of early stage entrepreneurial finance. Moreover, our research indicates that for the most part, investors appear to understand and appropriately evaluate the risks that they are bearing; ECF investments are perceived as a high risk, high return component within individuals’ portfolios. Investors also use their communication with peers and entrepreneurs via the ECF platform as a learning tool. On the entrepreneurs’ side, ECF allows them to test their products, to develop their brand, to build a loyal customer base and to turn customers into investors. We conclude that policymakers, with the support of a locally appropriate regulatory framework, could support equity crowdfunding as one of the market choices available for entrepreneurs looking to start or grow their ventures.