TESTING PROFIT AND STRUCTURE RELATIONSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN BANKING MARKETS USING EFFICIENCY MEASURES

This paper provides a comparison between the developed and developing European countries through investigating the profit–structure relationship in the banking industries. The reduced‐form profit equations are estimated for each group of countries for the period 1995–2006. The results suggest that the inclusion of X‐efficiency and scale efficiency directly in the reduced‐form profit equation is crucial in explaining the bank profit–structure relationship in the European banking markets. When we control for direct measures of efficiency, the market share and concentration coefficient become insignificant in all regressions. The results support the efficiency versions of the efficient‐structure hypothesis over the relative market power and structure–conduct–performance hypothesis. For the developing economies of Europe, the findings of the paper indicate that efficiency is a crucial factor for establishing a sound banking system and the banks in these countries should increase their scale of operations to attain an optimal profit level.     

COMPETITIVE ISSUES IN THE TAIWANESE BANKING INDUSTRY: MERGERS AND UNIVERSAL BANKS

This paper investigates scale economies and scope economies in the Taiwanese banking system, looking beyond the market‐power (MP) and efficient‐structure (ES) hypotheses. Given the existence of overall economies of scale and the positive value of expansion path sub‐additivity, we conclude that there might be large increases in profits following mergers. Moreover, since the profit‐structure relationship after financial reform is determined by the relative‐market‐power hypothesis, this consolidation trend will not necessarily decrease the social benefit for Taiwanese consumers. With regard to scope economies and product‐specific economies of scale, we are unable to recommend whether Taiwanese banks should develop as specialized banks or diversified banks in the future. Finally, we find that risk indicators play an important role in explaining the observed variation in bank profitability, and present evidence that default risk and leverage risk have negative effects on the profits of banking, although the effect of portfolio risk is uncertain.     

Financial reforms and persistently high bank interest spreads in Bangladesh: Pitfalls in institutional development?

This paper analyzes interest rate spreads and margins in Bangladesh for the period 1990–2008 by applying the Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond dynamic panel regression model to a panel of 43 banks. The model has been applied to tackle short-panel bias and endogeneity problems in banking analysis. A high degree of persistency in spreads and margins is observed, which points to inefficiencies of bank management. More specifically, high administrative costs, high non-performing loan ratio, market power, small share of deposits and some macroeconomic factors are found to be the key determinants of persistently high interest rate spreads and margins in Bangladesh. The findings of this study suggest that reforms commenced in the 1990s could not generate adequate competition and efficiency in the financial sector, particularly to drive down the spread in line with the predictions of interest rate literature. This situation in other words indicates pitfalls in institutional development.     

Bank consolidation and competitiveness: Empirical evidence from the Korean banking industry

The Korean government consolidated several banks following the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998 to stabilize the financial market and to improve international competitiveness. This process has brought sound capital reserves, assets and profitability to the banking industry. However, due to the resulting increase in market concentration, this process has also produced concerns about the monopolistic and oligopolistic power of the banks. Recently, the growing concern within the government is the weakening of bank competition due to the sharp increase in market concentration. This study reviews and examines the status of bank consolidation and the competitive structure of the banking industry. The degree of competitiveness in the banking industry is analyzed using the Panzar and Rosse model with a non-structural approach and data from 1992 to 2007 (before the beginning of the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis). This time span is divided into a pre- and a post-bank consolidation period. The estimation results indicate that monopolistic competition in the market exists but that the competitiveness of the banks has improved with the increased market concentration. This finding contradicts previous beliefs regarding the increased risk and lower competition derived from a concentrated financial system.     

Why didn't Canada have a banking crisis in 2008 (or in 1930, or 1907, or …)?

The financial crisis of 2008 engulfed the banking system of the US and many large European countries. Canada was a notable exception. In this article we argue that the structure of financial systems is path‐dependent. The relative stability of the Canadian banks in the recent crisis compared to the US in our view reflected the original institutional foundations laid in place in the early nineteenth century in the two countries. The Canadian concentrated banking system that had evolved by the end of the twentieth century had absorbed the key sources of systemic risk—the mortgage market and investment banking—and was tightly regulated by one overarching regulator. In contrast, the relatively weak, fragmented, and crisis‐prone US banking system that had evolved since the early nineteenth century led to the rise of securities markets, investment banks, and money market mutual funds (the shadow banking system) combined with multiple competing regulatory authorities. The consequence was that the systemic risk that led to the crisis of 2007–8 was not contained.     

Does market power affect performance in the dutch banking market? a comparison of reduced form market structure models

This paper investigates whether reduced form market structure models can be used to test whether there is market power in the Dutch banking market. First, a traditional Structure-Conduct-Performance (SCP) model is introduced. Next, a simple Cournot-model is introduced, which results in a more flexible measure of market power for different market structures. Finally, the inclusion of a modified Efficiency hypothesis reduces identification problems. Theoretically speaking, the Cournot model provides a better foundation for testing the existence of market power than the SCP model. Likewise, explicitly correcting for and including efficiency results in a more correct test of the Efficiency hypothesis. Empirical results for Dutch data confirm that the introduced improvements based on the Cournot models are the only ones resulting in tests that are consistent with the underlying models. Evidence from the Cournot model suggests that we cannot reject the existence of market power, although its impact on performance may be small. It also formalizes the need for additional research into the importance of strategic interaction among banks.     

Efficiency of the Banking Industry Structure in Korea*

This paper analyzes whether the efficiency of the Korean banking industry has improved since the bank restructuring in 1997, and whether a bank with high efficiency has a larger market share. This paper uses an efficient structure hypothesis model to examine the relationship between the banks' efficiencies and their profitability. The data envelopment analysis method is applied to measure the efficiency and profitability of the banking industry in order to minimize possible bias due to the inflow of public funds for the bank consolidation. The two‐step Heckman selection method is used to correct for survivorship bias in the model. The derived result indicates that banks with higher efficiencies tend to record higher profit. Moreover, higher pure technological efficiency and scale efficiency have a positive effect on a bank's market share and concentration.     

The Impact of Banking and Fiscal Policies on State-Level Economic Growth

This paper investigates the hypothesis that economic growth is affected by banking structure and fiscal policies. We use data from the 48 contiguous states for the period 1950-1980 aggregated into six five-year time periods, primarily to test the effect of the following factors on growth of state per capita income: (i) restrictions over branch banking, (ii) restrictions over multibank holding companies, (iii) the depth of financial assets in a state, (iv) the financial-intermediary mix, (v) the size of state government, and (vi) the methods of financing state government. We find no support for the hypotheses that branch banking or multibank holding company restrictions affect growth. However, financial depth and the mix of financial intermediaries are strongly correlated with economic growth. Finally, the state fiscal policy variables had no significant effect on income growth.     

The Development and Credit Risk Mitigation of Credit Derivatives

On the basis of the definition and market structure of credit derivatives, the paper analyzes the performance of this new financial instrument. Furthermore, with the practices of bank reform in China and the situation of international banking, it discusses the necessity to create the credit derivatives market in our country.     

多维视角下的中国银行业结构改革设计

从金融系统、配置效率、生产效率、中小企业融资和金融稳定等多维角度考察银行结构,理论和实证层面都没有具有说服力的理由表明相对分散型的银行市场结构比集中性的结构更有优势:相反,从金融系统的配置规则、效率优势和金融稳定优势等因素判断,集中的银行市场结构可能更为可取,而且从长远来看有利于中小企业融资。因此,保持相对集中才是中国银行业市场结构的合理取向。     

Testing the Validity of the Simultaneous Openness Hypothesis in Nigeria (1990–2015)

Since the seminal paper by Rajan and Zingales in 2003, a plethora of studies have been motivated to establish whether the simultaneous opening of trade and capital borders leads to financial sector development. We test whether the simultaneous openness hypothesis is valid for Nigeria, with a focus on the banking sector and stock market. Using annual data from 1990 to 2015 and an instrumental variable regression estimation technique, we show that the simultaneous increase of trade and financial openness limits banking sector and stock market development. Thus, there is no empirical evidence to validate the simultaneous openness hypothesis in Nigeria. It also shows that trade openness is more beneficial for banking sector and stock market development in Nigeria than financial openness.     

How much informal credit lending responded to monetary policy in China? The case of Wenzhou

This study investigates empirically what the major factors are which have driven Wenzhou's informal credit market and how much that market is responsive to monetary policies and the formal banking conditions nationwide. A number of relatively stable factors have been identified from this volatile market through a careful exploration of a monthly survey data set for the period of 2003–2011. The main findings are: (i) Wenzhou's informal credit lending rates are highly receptive to monetary policies; (ii) Wenzhou's market is dominantly demand driven; (iii) Wenzhou's informal lending is substitutive to bank savings in the short run but complementary to banking lending in the long run; and (iv) Wenzhou's market is complementary to excessive investments in the local real estate market.     

THE BEHAVIOUR OF CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSIT RATES IN THE UK

Using a number of maturities of up to one year and weekly highquality data on UK, CD rates, 1975–92, we provide a varietyof tests of the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure.Our results appear to give more support to the EH than do earlierstudies, which often use longer maturities and data of a lowerfrequency on coupon paying bonds and yield data on ‘bundlesof bonds’. If one is willing to assume that noise traderspredominate in the bond market at very short horizons, we canprovide some insights into empirical results, found in the literature.     

Is Japan's financial system efficient?

This paper puts forward some hypotheses to try and explain therecent fragility of the Japanese banking sector in a corporate-governanceperspective. One hypothesis is that the banks themselves werenot effectively monitored and disciplined. A second hypothesisis that the banks were able to show a good performance not becausethey monitored and disciplined their client firms, but becausethe firms were themselves disciplined by international competition.When those client firms reduced their reliance on bank creditin the 1980s, the banks were forced to extend their funds tonon-traded-goods industries, such as real estate and finance,without having prepared themselves for this. The consequencewas a serious non-performing-loan problem in the 1990s.     

Does bank competition affect the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through bank lending channel? Evidence from India

This paper empirically investigates how intensified competition in the Indian banking affects the transmission of monetary policy through bank lending channel over the period 1997–2017. Additionally, this study examines the impact of deposit and loan market channels on bank’s credit growth. Results obtained through two-step system-GMM reveal that a higher degree of market power weakens the monetary policy transmission mechanism for the entire banking industry and across ownerships. Results show that higher market power in the deposit and loan markets weakens the impact of monetary policy on bank loan supply. The findings of this study extend important policy measures that can strengthen the transmission mechanism of monetary policy by reducing the adverse effects of changes in bank competition.     

外资银行进入与银行业竞争度研究

文章采用Panzar—Rosse模型测度了1985年至2008年间我国银行业市场竞争程度,并对外资银行进入程度与市场竞争度之间的关系进行了经验分析,结果表明,我国银行业市场结构类型在样本期内由寡头竞争型转变为垄断竞争型,市场集中度呈现出下降的趋势,而市场竞争程度相应的呈现出上升的趋势,股份制商业银行及城市商业银行的兴起和发展促进了国内银行业市场的竞争。外资银行进入程度与银行业市场竞争程度之间呈现U型关系,即外资银行进入初期并没有显著促进银行业的竞争,而是在进入程度达到某一阶段之后才起到刺激竞争的作用。     

BANKING SECTOR CONTROLS AND FINANCIAL DEEPENING: A STRUCTURAL ERROR CORRECTION MODEL FOR TUNISIA

The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically the effects of several types of banking sector controls on financial deepening in Tunisia. The hypotheses addressed in this study are discussed within the general framework of the McKinnon/Shaw approach and the monopoly bank model. A structural error correction model in Ericsson's (1995) sense has been specified and used to estimate the effects of financial repression in Tunisia over the period 1961–2000. The main empirical finding suggests that, in the long and short terms, financial repression has had significant and negative effects on financial development, independently of its well‐known influence via the level of the real interest rate. This finding shows a contrast with the prevalence of financial market imperfections, but it is consistent with traditional literature on financial liberalization. In addition, this paper shows that financial deepening and per capita income are jointly determined since they both appear not to be weakly exogenous with each other.     

Predicting Efficiency in Angolan Banks: A Two‐Stage TOPSIS and Neural Networks Approach

This paper presents an efficiency assessment of the Angolan banks using Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). TOPSIS is a multi‐criteria decision‐making technique similar to data envelopment analysis, which ranks a finite set of units based on the minimisation of distance from an ideal point and the maximisation of distance from an anti‐ideal point. In this research, TOPSIS is used first in a two‐stage approach to assess the relative efficiency of Angolan banks using the most frequent indicators adopted by the literature. Then, in the second stage, neural networks are combined with TOPSIS results as part of an attempt to produce a model for banking performance with effective predictive ability. The results reveal that variables related to cost structure have a prominent negative impact on efficiency. Findings also indicate that the Angolan banking market would benefit from higher level of competition between institutions.     

银行业结构与经济增长——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

内容本文利用样本期为1987-2004年的省级面板数据对中国各省区银行业结构与经济增长的关系进行了计量分析。结果表明,中国各省区银行业结构对经济增长存在着显著为负的影响,这与一般均衡模型的理论预测相一致;中国各省区银行业结构与经济增长的关系表现出了明显的区域差异,即与东部区域相比,中西部区域银行集中度降低的益处更大,更能促进经济增长;在非国有化进程较快和市场化程度较高的省区,银行集中度的降低对经济增长的积极影响更为明显。在此基础上,本文提出了一些政策建议。