Oil price risk in the Spanish stock market: An industry perspective

This study examines the sensitivity of the Spanish stock market at the industry level to movements in oil prices over the period 1993–2010, paying special attention to the presence of endogenously determined structural changes in the relationship between oil price changes and industry equity returns. The empirical results show that the degree of oil price exposure of Spanish industries is rather limited, although significant differences are found across industries. The oil price sensitivity is very weak in the 1990s, a period of fairly stable and low oil prices. Instead, the link between crude oil and stock prices seems to have increased during the 2000s, becoming primarily positive. This evidence highlights the key role played by aggregate demand-side oil price shocks associated with the global real economic activity in the link between oil price fluctuations and the Spanish stock market.     

A general equilibrium pricing model with speculation,quantity risk,price risk and foreign exchange risk

This paper develops a general equilibrium model where prices and foreign exchange rates are endogenous and based upon more fundamental determinants. Speculative behavior leading to position taking in claims on foreign risky commodities is explained. It is shown that in a multicurrency environment with less than complete markets and sequential trading opportunities, heterogenous expectations instigate this behavior; speculation occurs only when news (new information) is anticipated to emerge which can lead to a revision in prices and foreign exchange rates. However, it is contended that although foreign exchange risk and price risk do exist in such a market, they are results of the underlying and inescapable quantity risk. Furthermore, in well functioning markets, the risk that emanates from position taking in state contingent claims on foreign commodities and which influences final consumption is quantity risk. The distinction drawn between the three types of risks and the hierarchy established among the three markets with which these risks are associated has implications for international financial management, especially as it pertains to multinational corporations' foreign exchange exposure management.     

Convergence within the EU: Evidence from Interest Rates

The economic and political changes which are taking place in Europe affect interest rates. This paper develops a two-factor model for the term structure of interest rates specially designed to apply to EMU countries. In addition to the participant country's short-term interest rate, we include as a second factor a 'European' short-term interest rate. We assume that the 'European' rate follows a mean reverting process. The domestic interest rate also follows a mean reverting process, but its convergence is to a stochastic mean which is identified with the 'European' rate. Closed-form solutions for prices of zero coupon discount bonds and options on these bonds are provided. A special feature of the model is that both the domestic and the European interest rate risks are priced. We also discuss an empirical estimation focusing on the Spanish bond market. The 'European' rate is proxied by the ecu's interest rate. Through a comparison of the performance of our convergence model with a Vasicek model for the Spanish bond market, we show that our model provides a better fit both in-sample and out-of sample and that the difference in performance between the models is greater the longer the maturity of the bonds.
(J.E.L.: E43, C510).     

Duration and convexity in spanish corporate bonds

The aim of this paper is to investigate risky-prices sensitivity to interest rate changes in the Spanish market and to see if sensitivity is lower than public debt. To contrast this hypothesis, this paper presents a model that analyzes the risky-prices sensitivity to interest rate changes through effective duration and convexity. The most relevant contribution of the paper is to obtain a better specification to the duration expression that contribute to the marginal increment of the coefficient of determination and the construction of a conditional volatility model that overcomes the linearity models of constant variance. The author would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by Junta de Comunidades grants, PAC 02-001.     

不确定性条件下的房地产价格决定:随机模型和经验分析

本文通过构造一个随机最优控制模型,分析了不确定性环境下房地产价格的决定因素。理论结果与经验证据显示,房地产价格受按揭贷款额度、按揭贷款利率、居民财富等多种因素的影响。我们还检验了近年来央行为抑制房地产价格上涨过快所实施加息政策的效果。实证结论表明,抵押贷款利率对房地产价格的影响虽然具有统计显著性,但是它缺乏经济显著性。在短期内,抵押贷款利率工具对控制房价的实际作用不明显,我国最近几年来央行所颁布的加息政策缺乏预期的效果。另外,由于居民适应性预期的作用,房地产价格自身的变动冲击是导致房地产价格上涨的主要因素,居民收入虽然也在一定程度上导致了房地产价格的上涨,但是其作用较小。     

A Model of the Australian Housing Market

We build an empirical model of the Australian housing market that quantifies interrelationships between construction, vacancies, rents and prices. We find that low interest rates (partly reflecting lower world long-term rates) explain much of the rapid growth in housing prices and construction over the past few years. Another demand factor, high immigration, also helps explain the tight housing market and rapid growth in rents in the late 2000s. A large part of the effect of interest rates on dwelling investment, and hence GDP, works through housing prices.     

Equity risk premium and time horizon: What do the U.S. secular data say?

We consider a representative investor whose wealth is made up of the equity market portfolio and the riskless asset, and who maximizes the expected utility of his/her future wealth for a given horizon. The solution of this program shows that the equilibrium value of the equity risk premium – the latter being measured by the difference between the expected equity portfolio return and the risk-free interest rate – is given by the product of the price of risk by the expected variance of stock returns. When returns are predictable, these two magnitudes are both time-varying and horizon-dependent. In accordance with this theoretical framework, our paper presents an econometric model of the equity risk premia for two traditional horizons: the one-period-ahead horizon (i.e. the ‘short-term’ premium) and the infinite-time horizon (i.e. the ‘long-term’ premium). Using annual US secular data from 1871 to 2008, and representing the expected returns by mixing the three traditional adaptive, extrapolative and regressive processes, large disparities in the dynamics of the two premia are evidenced. Concerning the determination of the equilibrium values of the two premia, the expected variances depend on the past values of the centered squared returns while the prices of risk (unobservable variables) are estimated according to the Kalman filter methodology, which enables us to capture the influence of hidden variables and of non-directly measurable psychological effects. A spread of interest rates adds to this determination. Possibly due to risky arbitrage and transaction costs, the results show that observed premia gradually converge towards their equilibrium values, this process being described by an error correction model. Overall, our model provides a rather satisfactory representation of ‘short-term’ and ‘long-term’ premia.     

三种国债拍卖方式的拍卖收入比较研究

国债拍卖主要有美国式拍卖、荷兰式拍卖与混合式拍卖三种,但究竟哪一种拍卖方式的拍卖收入最大?学术界迄今尚无定论。文章对W-Z模型进行扩展,并在此基础上通过结合不同市场利率环境下投标者的不同风险偏好进行比较研究。结果表明:(1)当市场利率趋升时,若非竞争性投标量较大,则混合式拍卖收入最大;若非竞争性投标量较小,但竞争性投标者较少,且市场利率上升趋势极强,则同样是混合式拍卖收入最大,反之则荷兰式拍卖收入最大。(2)当市场利率趋降时,美国式拍卖收入最大。(3)当市场利率平稳时,何种拍卖方式收入最大无法确定。     

Quantile hedging for equity-linked life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate economy

In this paper we examine equity-linked life insurance contracts in a stochastic interest rate economy via quantile hedging whose purpose is to look for the optimal probability of a successful hedge under initial budget constraint. Most of the existing studies have focused on valuing equity-linked life insurance contracts by quantile hedging or in a framework of stochastic interest rates. However, a few have taken into account simultaneously the two techniques, which make valuing equity-linked life insurance contracts more difficult. We model the term structure of interest rates by classical HJM model that imbeds stochastic interest rate economy into one containing an arbitrary number of additional risky assets. By means of the change of measure approach, we give explicit formulas for the fair values of the following four products: deterministic payoff contract, pure equity-linked life contract, equity-linked life contract with guarantee, equity-linked life contract with minimum guarantees and capped benefits. We find that the explicit formulas are mainly composed of normal distribution functions and two-dimensional normal distribution functions. We also investigate sensibility of the survival probability using data of interest rates, stock prices and life table from China.     

Housing cycles and efficiency

This paper has four objectives. First, a small model of the UK housing market is constructed, including equations for house prices, housing starts, construction costs and interest rates. The model is used in an analysis of housing market cycles, employing techniques developed for the analysis of general business cycles. Second, the model is used to consider housing market efficiency. Third, the model is extended to examine the relationship between house prices and property transactions. Finally, the role of monetary policy in the generation of housing cycles and stability is discussed.     

Spectral analysis of secondary market mexican external debt prices

The secondary market for developing country debt currently is one of the fastest growing segments of the fixed income securities market. This paper examines the spectral properties of secondary market Mexican external debt price variations from January 1986–December 1992. The analysis presented in this paper suggests that the secondary market for Mexican external debt may be characterized by the "random-walk with drift" model. Moreover, large (small) spectral density estimates at high (low) periodicities suggest that secondary market price variations were positively autocorrelated and aperiodic in nature, although there is some evidence to suggest the possible presence of short-period harmonic resonances. Cross-spectral analysis of the relationship between the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond interest rate and secondary market Mexican external debt prices appears to verify the theoretical relationship between market determined interest rates for default-free, dollar denominated debt and secondary market debt prices. More importantly, estimated phase-lag relationships suggest that the secondary market for Mexican external debt probably was inefficient at the semi-strong level.     

The effect of FOMC statements on asset prices

Given their increased importance during recent years, FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statements can have a significant impact on asset prices. To capture the effect of FOMC statements on asset prices, an indicator variable is created that takes into account the information content of policy statements. Results show that both ‘interest rate surprises’ and ‘FOMC statements’ affect the mean and the volatility of asset prices. The volatility impact is tent-shaped, jumping within the policy announcement interval and declining before and after the release. FOMC statements have a much more pronounced impact on stock returns, intermediate and long-term yields, while short-term rates are largely driven by target rate decisions. We also find that the evolution of the language of the FOMC statements does matter to market participants and, in particular, the ‘forward-looking’ language adopted in mid-2003 has reduced market volatility associated with ‘interest rate surprises’ on announcement days.     

Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia

Why do risk premia vary over time? We examine this problem theoretically and empirically by studying the effect of market belief on risk premia. Individual belief is taken as a fundamental primitive state variable. Market belief is observable; it is central to the empirical evaluation and we show how to measure it. Our asset pricing model is familiar from the noisy REE literature but we adapt it to an economy with diverse beliefs. We derive equilibrium asset prices and implied risk premium. Our approach permits a closed form solution of prices; hence we trace the exact effect of market belief on the time variability of asset prices and risk premia. We test empirically the theoretical conclusions. Our main result is that, above the effect of business cycles on risk premia, fluctuations in market belief have significant independent effect on the time variability of risk premia. We study the premia on long positions in Federal Funds Futures, 3- and 6-month Treasury Bills (T-Bills). The annual mean risk premium on holding such assets for 1?C12?months is about 40?C60 basis points and we find that, on average, the component of market belief in the risk premium exceeds 50% of the mean. Since time variability of market belief is large, this component frequently exceeds 50% of the mean premium. This component is larger the shorter is the holding period of an asset and it dominates the premium for very short holding returns of less than 2?months. As to the structure of the premium we show that when the market holds abnormally favorable belief about the future payoff of an asset the market views the long position as less risky hence the risk premium on that asset declines. More generally, periods of market optimism (i.e. ??bull?? markets) are shown to be periods when the market risk premium is low while in periods of pessimism (i.e. ??bear?? markets) the market??s risk premium is high. Fluctuations in risk premia are thus inversely related to the degree of market optimism about future prospects of asset payoffs. This effect is strong and economically very significant.     

Has Canadian house price growth been excessive?

The dramatic rise in the ratio of Canada's average house price to average rent has led to speculation that there is a bubble in the Canadian housing market. Others have argued, however, that the currently high level of house prices may be rationalized by the low cost of financing, given the decline in interest rates over the last two decades. In this article, we assess these arguments through the lens of a simple asset pricing model applied to city‐level data. We quantify the extent to which excess growth in Canadian house prices depends on the nature of the current regime governing real interest rates, expectations of rent growth in different cities and variations in property taxes.     

Time variation in the cointegrating relationship between stock prices and economic activity

The present paper examines whether there exists a long‐run cointegrating relationship between a stock market index and output and interest rates. Moreover, estimation is conducted over the full sample and both a recursive and rolling sample to examine any time variation in the nature of the relationship. The results support evidence of a single cointegrating vector, where stock prices typically exhibit a positive relationship with industrial production and a negative relationship with interest rates. However, there is significant time variation and periods of time where contrary results are observed. As such any model of stock prices needs to account for such time variation     

Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation

This paper models a mechanism through which population ageing may induce a deflationary process. We propose an overlapping-generations model (OLG) with money created by credits (inside money) and intergenerational trade. The model links demographic factors, such as fertility rates and longevity, to prices. We show that lower fertility rates lead to smaller demand for credit and lower money creation, which in turn cause a decline in prices. Changes in longevity affect prices through real savings and the capital market. Furthermore, a few links between interest rates and inflation are addressed; they arise in the general equilibrium and are not thoroughly discussed in literature. Long-run results are derived analytically; short-run dynamics are simulated numerically.     

Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada

This paper focuses on risk premiums paid by central governments in Europe and sub-national governments in Germany, Spain, and Canada, using data for bond yield spreads for the period 1991–2005. We find that risk premiums by central governments respond positively to debt and deficits; German states enjoyed a favourable position in financial markets before EMU but not thereafter; Spanish and Canadian provinces risk premiums over the whole period; German and Spanish sub-central governments pay liquidity-related interest rate premiums; Canadian and German provinces/states that benefit from fiscal equalization lower spreads. This is evidence of market discipline at work and of credibility of the EU no-bailout clause.     

A Structural Analysis of Credit Risk With Risky Collateral: A Methodology for Haircut Determination

Although many credit risk pricing models exist in the academic literature, very little attention has been paid to the impact of risky collateral on credit risk. It is nonetheless well known that practitioners often mitigate credit risk with collateral, using so–called haircuts for collateral level determination. The presence of collateral has a complex effect that can not be analysed simply with existing models. We analyse the value of credit risk when there is collateral in a range of different situations, including dual–default in a simple setting, stochastic collateral, stochastic bond collateral with stochastic interest rates, continuous and discrete marking–to–market and margin calls. The models confirm many practical intuitions, such as the impact on the haircut level required of the risks of the collateral asset and of the underlying asset to the forward as well as the impact of their correlation. Moreover, the model supports the intuition that the frequency of marking–to–market and collateral are substitutes. The models also stress the possibly unexpected magnitude of these factors. More importantly, they give actual solutions to determining the value of the credit risk depending on the haircut chosen and the frequency of marking–to–markets, results not presented before in the literature. The models are also a good basis to understand the portfolio effect of collateral management. Finally, they illustrate how differences in prices may arise from pure differences of credit risk management, as illustrated here in the case of futures and forwards.
(J.E.L.: G13).     

Financial markets’ behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance

Using a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries’ fiscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of substantial fiscal tightening and plunge in periods of very loose fiscal policy. In addition, the paper shows that results depend on countries’ initial fiscal conditions and on the type of fiscal consolidations: Fiscal adjustments that occur in country-years with high levels of government deficit, that are implemented by cutting government spending, and that generate a permanent and substantial decrease in government debt are associated with larger reductions in interest rates and increases in stock market prices.     

Analyzing time–frequency relationship between interest rate,stock price and exchange rate through continuous wavelet

In this study we investigate and identify the patterns of co-movement of interest rate, stock price and exchange rate in India in the period between July 1997 and December 2010 using the cross-wavelet power, the cross-wavelet coherency, and the phase difference methodologies. Our empirical findings suggest that stock prices, exchange rates and interest rates are linked. The cross wavelet results show that stock price movements are lagging both to the exchange rate and interest rate fluctuations. The interest rate lead over the stock price movements is even clearer, especially after 2006, and it suggests that the stock market follows the interest rate signals. Comparing results of WTC and XWT, we find very clear results of phase difference of lead–lag relationship between stock prices, exchange rates and interest rates.