Analysis of China＇s Overheated Economy and Macroeconomic Policy Options

Based on macroeconomic analysis since 2003, this article holds mat a trena towaras overheating has surfaced in China‘s economy. China‘s rapid economic expansion has affected the quality of its growth, with rising material and energy consumption and imbalanced economic structure as the main manifestations. Regarding macroeconomic policy options in 2004, decision-makers should shift the policy focus from control of deflation to prevention of inflation; the pace of economic growth should be properly set; a balance between consumption and investment should be strengthened by controlling excessive expansion of investment, and industrial restructuring should be conducted in a coordinated manner on the basis of properly controlling the overly rapid indastrial growth; policies should be continued to boost exports and sustainable growth of foreign investment; and more efforts should be made to accelerate the change in the mode of economic growth.     

Who is Going to Supply the Milk to China＇s South？

China＇s dairy industry has experienced rapid expansion in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of 23.8 percent from 2000 to 2006. However, there exists a serious geographical distribution imbalance in milk production and consumption. Approximately 85 percent of China＇s milk is produced in northern China, where 40 percent of the country＇s population reside. In contrast, only about 15 percent of the milk is produced in China＇s south, where 60percent of China＇s population reside. This has resulted in a significant gap between milk production and consumption in southern China and this gap is expected to rise. This paper considers China＇s milk demand and supply situation, analyzes the likely potential for China to expand its milk production and explores options for meeting milk demand-supply shortages. Policy and trade implications are discussed.     

Retesting the Separability of China＇s Rural Households

This article retests the separability of China’s rural households in light of growing doubt about the sustainability of high economic growth in China.If a household’s production decisions are "separable "from the household’s consumption decisions,generally this suggests there is no surplus labor.Many scholars aver that China’s surplus rural labor has spurred rapid economic growth,but concerns have arisen as to whether China still has surplus labor available.We investigate this issue using rural household panel data from 1993 to 2009.The regression results confirm that households in rural China have progressed from being non-separable to separable.The estimation results for both the entire country and regions reject the separability hypothesis before 2004 but fail to reject the hypothesis after 2004(with the exception of the central region).These results suggest that China ’s surplus labor supply is dwindling,especially in the eastern and the western regions.The sustainability of China’s high economic growth is questionable in the absence of a large reservoir of surplus rural labor.     

Global Energy and Environmental Impacts of an Expanding China

I.Introduction Rapid economic growth in China and China’s economic size have important implications for energy use and environmental outcomes in China, regionally and globally. Although?2006 The Author Journal compilation ?2006 Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences most statistics related to China are impressive, those related to energy use and environmental problems are startling. China is currently the world’s third largest energy producer and …     

英文文摘

Chinese economic growth has both momentum and resistance. Urbanization is the driving force for China＇s future economic growth. Urbanization will promote the rapid development of heavy industrialization. Reindustrialization since the second half of 2009 accelerated again in 2010,     

Guest Editors’ Introduction

China has entered a new stage of social and economic development,having eliminated absolute poverty by the end of 2020.Common prosperity will be a new goal in this new development stage.There are domestic and international reasons for China to promote common prosperity as a new development goal.Domestically,the reform and opening-up policies over the past 40 years have promoted rapid economic growth and a considerable improvement in Chinese living standards but the problem of unbalanced development has not been solved effectively.This problem is manifested in all aspects of social and economic development,including excessive income inequality and unfair income distribution,regional disparities,a significantly large urban-rural gap,and unequal access to basic public services among different population groups.     

Multiple Forces Driving China＇s Economic Development： A New Analytic Framework

Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank's analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China's reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China's rapid economic development. Implications for China's long-term economic development are thereby raised.     

Copying with China''''s Balance of Payments Surplus: Why and How?

I. Continuous Increase of Balance of Payments SurplusAttributed to a series of domestic economic reform and structural adjustment, China hasexperienced a rapid increase of export and FDI inflows since the mid of 1990s. As a result,either its current account or capital and financial account1 has been increasingly characterizedwith surplus, leading to a rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves. Since thebeginning of 2001, such a trend has accelerated and the foreign exchange reserves …     

China＇s Economy in 2006/2007： Managing High Growth for Faster Structural Adjustment

China's economy in 2006 continued to register high growth of 10.5 to 10.7 percent with low inflation (CPI at 1.3 percent),dissipating fears of a hard landing. Since its accession to the WTO,China has become a significant global economic player,and is the favorite destination for many regional and global production networks. China is now a truly economic power (jingji daguo). China's economic leadership is also increasingly confident of its ability to manage China's domestic economic growth and its growing relations with the outside world. Although China's growth is expected to slow down in 2007 to approximately 9.5 percent,the national mood now is one of "more balanced" growth rather than "fast growth". Therefore,the building of a "harmonious society" is to be emphasized in China,while letting economic growth solve the burning social and environmental issues. In 2007,the government will also need to deal with various internal and external macroeconomic imbalances. The renminbi will be under even stronger pressure to revalue,given China's record trade surplus of US$160bn and foreign reserves of US$1tn.     

Decomposing the Effects of FDI on Guangdong＇s Economic Growth

Guangdong has been experiencing rapid economic growth, while this rapid growth was accompanied by a boom in inward foreign investment and the establishment of a direct link with the outside world. Using city-level panel data from 1996 to 2002, the four-year moving fixed effects FDI-led growth model empirically shows that Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan （HMT） investment will not continue to make up the bulk of FDI in Guangdong for long, and that its dominant influence on Guangdong＇s economic growth will be gradually replaced by other sources of investment in the near future due to various political and economical reasons.     

我国现阶段收入分配差距问题探析

改革开放为我国社会经济的发展带来了生机,国民总体收入和生活水平有了大幅提高,但与此同时,居民收入差距却呈现出不断扩大的趋势。主要表现为城乡收入差距不断扩大、地区收入差距不断扩大、行业收入差距不断扩大以及社会居民收入的两极分化趋势。造成目前我国居民收入差距不断扩大的原因是多方面的,其主要原因表现在经济体制转轨及其渐进性、经济发展中的政策倾斜、分配领域中的政策缺位以及灰色收入的大量存在等。过大的收入差距将影响我国城乡和地区的统筹发展,挫伤广大劳动群众的积极性,甚至影响到社会的稳定。应该从思想上正确认识公平与效率的关系,进一步调节过高收入,惩治腐败和非法收入,努力提高低收入者的生活水平。     

我国经济发展方式转变对策研究——基于居民收入分配差距分析

文章从国民收入分配格局出发,得出我国GDP增加额主要流向企业和政府,居民的收入增长低于经济增长,造成我国投资过剩,内需不足;而不断扩大的居民收入分配差距进一步降低了我国的消费率,制约我国经济的发展。从对居民在城乡、性别、年龄和受教育程度方面的收入分配差距分析,得出农村具有巨大的消费潜力,女性的边际消费率较高,年龄介于35-44岁的居民具有高收入高学历的特征。文章认为,为拉动内需而转变发展方式应从增加居民的货币收入、抑制高房价、缩小城乡差距、提高女性就业率和加大社保与教育投入等方面着手。     

中国社会保障支出与城乡居民收入差距关系的实证分析

文章首先分析了中国城乡收入差距现状,之后选取了城乡人均物质资本差距、城乡人力资本差距、城乡劳动力市场一体化程度和城乡社会保障差距四个影响城乡居民收入差距的影响因素进行实证分析。结果表明,城乡人均物质资本差距和城乡劳动力市场一体化程度对城乡居民收入差距有正向影响,城乡人力资本差距和城乡社会保障差距对城乡居民收入差距有负向影响。     

非农就业机会不平等对地区间农村收入差距的影响分析

文章通过建立农村收入模型，分析了东、中、西部地区间的农村收入差距。分析结果表明，农村地区间的工资性收入差距是构成农村收入差距的重要因素。区域间农村工业化发展水平和城市非农部门发展水平差异所造成的非农就业机会的不平等，以及农民在获得非农就业机会能力上的差异是导致地区间农村工资性收入差距的主要原因。     

中国区域收入差距分析及政策建议

区域间经济发展差距、收入差距正在加速扩大的非均衡格局,已经对我国整个经济发展构成了严重的威胁。如何缩小差距,保持区域经济的同步协调发展是迫在眉睫的任务。对三大地带、六大区和各省市进行实证分析和比较,提出缩小区域收入差距的思路和政策建议。希望能有助于国家区域发展战略的制定,有助于缓解经济快速发展中的社会矛盾。     

收入差距、社会保障支出与农村居民幸福感

收入差距的日益恶化严重影响到了居民的幸福感,社会保障支出作为民生性支出,具有典型的福利性与公平性特征,其可能加剧或缓解收入差距对农村居民幸福感的影响。本文基于2010年中国社会综合调查数据（CGSS）,采用Ordered Probit模型,实证分析了收入差距、社会保障支出对农村居民幸福感的影响。研究发现,收入差距与农村居民幸福感呈倒“U”型关系,低水平的收入差距对农村居民幸福感有积极影响,而较高的收入差距则会降低农村居民幸福感,且这一效应对农村低收入者幸福感的影响更大;社会保障支出不仅对农村居民幸福感有显著的正向影响,而且缓解了收入差距过大对农村居民幸福感带来的不利冲击。在采用工具变量法矫正内生性后,结论依然稳健。因此,我国政府理应将收入差距控制在合理区间,同时加大社会保障支出,从而使农村居民更幸福感。     

社会保障支出对居民收入影响机制分析——基于江苏省13市面板数据的收敛分析

财政社会保障支出是调节居民收入的重要手段,有效缩小收入差距,保障人民生活水平是其核心功能,而实践与理论是否一致则需要进一步地研究论证。文章从区域视角切入,基于江苏省13市的面板数据,利用新古典增长理论构建模型进行收敛回归分析,对比在模型中加入社会保障支出这一控制变量前后收敛系数β的变动,从而分析社会保障支出对江苏省全省以及分别在江苏省南北内部的居民收入是起到"正向调节"抑或"逆向分配"的作用。回归结果显示,在苏南地区社会保障支出对收入起到"正向调节"作用,而在江苏全省和苏北地区则起到"逆向分配"的反效果,进而对江苏省提高社会保障支出水平,健全完善社会保障体系结构,平衡区域内部发展提出了新的挑战。     

我国对外开放与收入差距:基于地区和行业的考察

随着我国对外开放程度的加深,地区和行业之间的收入差距拉大问题日益凸显。对外和开放和收入差距是否存在某种因果关系,以及它们之间的作用机制是本文的主题。研究表明:对外开放与地区和行业收入差距存在单向格兰杰因果关系,前者在提高各地区各行业平均收入的同时,由于其影响的强度差异而相对地拉大了我国地区和行业之间的收入差距。     

我国城乡居民人均收入构成及其差距实证分析

根据2002－2012年相关数据分析,蛾乡居民不同来源收入差距远超过城乡间居民消费水平的变化。应用灰色关联分析发现,不同来源的收入差距对城乡居民的消费水平影响程度不同。文章建议采取有效措施从工资性收入和经营性收入两方面抑制城乡居民收入差距的过快增长,构筑城乡一体化社会保障体系,缩小转移性收入差距。     

新疆社会保障支出与农民收入增长的互动关系分析

改革开放以来,新疆农村经济社会发生了翻天覆地的变化,农民收入大幅度提高,生活水平显著改善,但城乡收入差距扩大的趋势仍未扭转,农民持续增收的难度不断加大。本文运用格兰杰因果检验的方法,对新疆社会保障的支出与农民收入增长的关系进行了分析,发现社会保障支出对农民收入增长具有重要的促进作用,而农民收入水平也同时影响着社会保障支出的变动,从而得出了二者互相促进、相辅相成的结论。