Share portfolios in the early years of financial capitalism: London, 1690–1730

The dramatic expansion of public and private financial markets in the aftermath of the Glorious Revolution has received extensive attention. Despite this, little is known about how ordinary individual investors managed risk within this framework. Using a newly constructed dataset of share ownership for those joint‐stock companies listed in the financial press of the day, we reconstruct individual portfolio holdings for investors in these companies. We examine individual portfolio holdings first for the decade after the Glorious Revolution and then for the years around the South Sea Bubble. Despite a fivefold increase in the number of unique individuals in the market between the 1690s and the 1720s, we find that in each period roughly 80 per cent of those active in the equity market held shares in only one company, even though many shareholders had the capacity or wealth to diversify share portfolios. These outcomes suggest diversification against idiosyncratic liquidity risk. Overall, however, there is limited evidence that individuals were using their financial portfolios to protect against diversifiable shocks. For many, we argue, company‐specific voting and firm governance rules drove market activity.     

Interaction between Foreign and Domestic Investors in the Korean Stock and Futures Markets*

The present paper analyzes the behavioral relations of major investor groups in the stabilized Korean stock and futures markets after the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Investor groups cannot be classified as positive or negative feedback traders on market returns when both stock and futures markets are considered, which is inconsistent with the results in Ghysels and Seon (2005). Foreign investors and domestic institutions tend to take opposite positions in both markets. The impact of foreign investors on the basis change is significantly negative in the futures market, whereas domestic institutions have a negative relation in the stock market. This supports the view that selling activity of foreign investors in the futures market pulls the futures price down compared with the index value and, consequently, induces the reverse cash‐and‐carry trade of domestic institutions. This relationship, which negatively influenced the Korean economy during the crisis, as shown in Ghysels and Seon (2005), still exists in the Korean financial markets.     

Who Plays the Key Role among Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong Stock Markets？

In this paper we examine the daily frequency stock market indices of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong from January 2000 to June 2012, and use the Morlet wavelet coherence model to determine who is playing the most important role in the financial markets of China. We find that there are significant comovements between these stock markets in the medium and long run. This provides investors with opportunities to increase their capital gains. The Hong Kong stock market plays a leading role in the long run, but its leader position is threatened by fast‐growing Chinese mainland stock markets, especially the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Based on our analysis, the following suggestions apply to the Chinese stock markets: establish and improve international and regional finance centers in Chinese mainland; encourage more qualified institutional investors; reposition the market relations among Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen; and increase deregulation and internationalization to speed up the integration of financial resources.     

基于金融周期视角下股票市场的联动效应研究

世界经济全球化已成为趋势,发达经济体的股市之间以及发达经济体与新兴经济体股市之间的联动性也在经济全球化的趋势中更加紧密。各国金融领域以及金融市场间的快速融合,不断形成统一规范的金融行为准则,也使得全球金融周期性特征越来越明显。文章选取世界五个主要股票市场指数为研究对象,按照已有研究对全球金融周期的划分,将该样本区间分成了繁荣期、衰退期和正常期三个阶段,然后基于这三个阶段分析了在不同金融周期五国股票市场指数收益率联动效应。基于实证研究结论,认为美国和欧洲股市联动性较强,与亚洲股市联动性相对较弱,且美国和中国股市之间联动性最弱,基本捕捉不到下尾相关。相关实证结论有利于国际投资者的投资组合管理,也有助于各国股票市场的风险规避。     

Equity,Bonds, Institutional Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa

We examine the finance‐growth nexus in South Africa accounting for the role of bond markets, stock markets, and bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries using a vector autoregressive technique. Extant empirical literature has largely accounted for only banks and stock markets, ignoring bond market and non‐bank financial intermediaries. We find that bond market development affects economic growth in South Africa, and no similar effect is observed for the bank and non‐bank financial intermediaries and the stock market. Our finding shows that examination of individual elements of the financial system is important in understanding the unique effect of each on growth. The observation that the bond market rather than stock market, bank and non‐bank institutions promote economic growth in South Africa induces an intriguing question as to what unique roles bond markets play that the intermediaries and equity market are unable to play.     

The Role of Stock Markets in the Asian-Pacific Region

This paper identifies the role of stock markets in developing economies with a focus on the Asian-Pacific region. The region's markets generally do not play a major role in resource allocation. The stock exchanges of the region are primarily secondary markets facilitating portfolio construction by domestic and international investors. The paper concentrates on secondary market activity and the controls regulators use to contain excessive speculation and price volatility. It also covers the role of stock markets in the recent financial crisis in the region.     

Regional stock markets and the economic development of Southeast Asia

The paper examines the contribution made by the establishment and operation of a local stock exchange to the economic development of Southeast Asian (SEA) countries. The paper informs investors and policymakers about the current status of SEA stock market development and the associated positive and negative effects of such initiatives. Policymakers have placed a clear focus on SEA stock markets as a primary driver of regional economic growth. However, it is questionable whether SEA is ready for such an ambitious economic initiative, particularly given the reported negative effects of lesser developed stock markets. Despite these negative implications, the benefits appear to outweigh the costs for SEA stock markets. It is perceived that SEA stock markets will drive further economic reform, financial liberalisation, and market integration, promising tremendous benefits for both the region and the international investment community. The paper concludes with questions regarding the efficiency of stock markets in SEA and offers recommendations for further empirical research.     

女性是出色的股票交易者吗？一个实验研究

金融市场存在性别比例失衡问题，男性在金融行业中占有主导地位。虽然现有行为金融文献研究发现男性与女性投资者在金融市场中的一些行为存在差异，比如股票交易频率（Fellner and Maciejovsky，2007）和股票投资意愿（Bannier and Neuberty，2016），但是，男性与女性投资者股票交易决策偏见特征及其影响机理还尚不明晰。为此，文章以处置效应为研究视角，依据Frydman and Rangel（2014）的实验设计，实验检验了男性和女性投资者的处置效应差异及其内在影响机理，旨在回答女性投资者的股票交易决策是否优于男性。实验结果显示：女性投资者的股票交易决策并不优于男性，这主要表现为女性的处置效应显著高于男性；女性更多地非理性持有亏损股票，而男性较多地理性持有盈利股票；女性投资者的感知后悔与处置效应显著正相关，而男性投资者的感知后悔与处置效应不具有显著相关关系；与男性相比，女性投资者的感知后悔对处置效应的影响更强。这表明女性投资者的股票交易决策更容易受到后悔情绪的影响，偏离理性决策。文章厘清了处置效应的性别差异及其影响机理，丰富了处置效应性别差异的理论解释。相关部门应该加强女性投资者的宣传教育工作，倡导理性投资。女性投资者应该树立理性的投资理念，采取措施减少情绪体验对股票交易决策的不利影响。     

The current global financial crisis: Do Asian stock markets show contagion or interdependence effects?

In the framework of the current global economic crisis, a pertinent question is whether the world economies are suffering from contagion or interdependence effects. With its origins in the US sub-prime mortgage market crisis starting at the end of 2007, when a loss of confidence by investors in the value of securitized mortgages resulted in a liquidity crisis, hard-hitting the banking system and rapidly spreading into the financial markets, the effects of the crisis were automatically reflected in the rest of the world economies. These effects become more severe as the rest of the world is facing economic and financial instability. Therefore, the American shock can be seen as the trigger that revealed the other economies’ own financial problems. The main finding of this paper shows that the US stock markets are not generating contagious effects into the Asian stock markets. However, strong evidence of volatility transmission derived from these economies’ interlinkages has been detected.     

The effect of North Korean threats on financial markets in South Korea and Japan

This paper examines the effects of North Korean threats, as measured by the proprietary North Korean Threat Index (NKTI), on financial markets in South Korea and Japan. We examine the effects of the threats on stock markets, foreign exchange markets, and overnight interest rates. We consider causality in mean and variance tests to determine any link between the NKTI and financial variables. The causality-in-mean test results indicate the presence of a causal link running from North Korean threats to stock returns and exchange rate returns in both countries, but no significant link to the overnight interest rate in either country. The causality-in-variance test results indicate no significant impact emanating from North Korean threats. Integrating the North Korean economy into the global economy stands to eliminate these threats and thus to contribute to regional financial stability.     

Stock returns and investment trust flows in the Japanese financial market: A system approach

To study dynamic and causal relations between stock returns and investment trust flows in Japan, we employ a system method which utilizes information from the stock, bond, and money markets. The empirical evidence from SURECM, and Granger (1969) and Sims (1972) causality tests in the system method indicates that investment trust flows are weakly exogenous and stock returns cause net fund flows, implying that investors move their money to the securities that yield higher returns to rebalance their investment portfolios in the short-run. Thus, our findings do not support the popular notion of mutual fund flows as a driving force behind rallies in Japanese financial markets.     

RISK–RETURN TRADE‐OFF AND BEHAVIOUR OF VOLATILITY ON THE SOUTH AFRICAN STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM BOTH AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE DATA

The study analyses the nature and behaviour of volatility, the risk–return relationship and the long‐term trend of volatility on the South African equity markets using aggregate level, industrial level and sectoral level daily data for the period 1995‐2009. By employing dummy variables for the Asian and the sub‐prime financial crises and the 11 September political shock, the study further examines whether the long‐term trend of volatility structurally breaks during financial crises and major political shocks. Three time‐varying generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models were employed: one of them symmetric, and the other two asymmetric. Each of these models was estimated based on three error distributional assumptions. The findings of the study are as follows: First, volatility is largely persistent and asymmetric. Second, risk at both aggregate and disaggregate level is generally not a priced factor on the South Africa (SA) stock market. Third, the threshold autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (TARCH) model under the generalised error distribution is the most appropriate model for conditional volatility of the SA stock market. Fourth, volatility generally increases over time, and its trend structurally breaks during financial crises and major global shocks. The policy and investment implications of the findings are outlined.     

Efficiency,Cointegration and Contagion in Equity Markets: Evidence from China,Japan and South Korea*

This paper empirically examines whether three East Asian stock markets, namely, those of China, Japan and South Korea, are individually and/or jointly efficient, and whether contagion exists between the cointegrated markets. While individual market efficiency is examined through testing for the random walk hypothesis, joint market efficiency is examined through testing for cointegration and contagion. The present study finds that the hypothesis of individual market efficiency is strongly rejected for the Chinese stock market, but not for the Japanese and the South Korean stock markets. However, when testing for cointegration, market efficiency is strongly rejected for all these markets. We take a simple case of contagion and find that although there is a long‐term relationship among the three markets, the contagion hypothesis cannot be rejected only between Japanese and South Korean stock markets, indicating short‐run portfolio diversification benefits from these two markets.     

The Interactions of Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the ASEAN-5 Countries: New Evidence Using a Bootstrap Panel Granger Causality Approach

Abstract

Using a data-set from the ASEAN-5 countries over the January 2000–August 2013 period, this paper revisits the Granger causal nexus between the equity and foreign exchange markets by employing the bootstrap panel Granger causality approach developed by Kònya, which allows for both cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity across countries. The results indicate a unidirectional causality from stock prices to exchange rates in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand and from exchange rates to stock prices in Indonesia. These findings have important implications for policy-makers and institutional investors who should rigidly monitor the dynamic linkages between stock price and exchange rate movements across the ASEAN-5 financial markets when making policy decisions and investing in these countries.     

An Index‐Based Model for Determining the Investment Benchmark of Renewable Energy Projects in South Africa

In a globalised world, financial markets observe the optimal level of asset allocation and returns based on risk inherent in the economies. Whether public or private investors, they need to have an optimal return on their investment given the finite resources. In relatively new sectors like grid‐connected renewable energy, many investors face difficulty in assessing proper return, making them more averse to financing such projects, affecting transborder project development opportunities. In developing countries like South Africa, which has tremendous potential for renewable energy projects, an arbitrary choice of the required rate of return for project evaluations can negatively affect funding decisions. This paper explores an index‐based model to make fair estimates of the required equity benchmark internal rate of return (IRR) using financial markets observation for renewable energy projects in South Africa. The index‐based model is parsimonious and captures common macroeconomic factors. More specifically, it provides a simple and effective mechanism to calculate IRR for renewable energy projects given different gestation periods.     

Equity Risk Premium Puzzle: Evidence from Indonesia and Sri Lanka

This paper investigates the equity risk premium puzzle in the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets in order to identify the relationship between the volatility of excess returns and the equity risk premium. The asymmetric impact of negative shocks on the equity risk premium is also examined using threshold and exponential GARCH-M models. We analyse data on the excess returns of the Indonesian and Sri Lankan stock markets from 2004 to 2013, and we find that the impact of the conditional volatility of excess returns on the equity risk premium is not significant in either country. Instead, we find an impact from negative return shocks on the equity risk premium only in Sri Lanka. Therefore, we conclude that investors are not compensated for the conditional volatility of the excess returns in these two markets, while Sri Lankan investors are compensated for the risk of negative shocks.     

国家股比例对上市公司市场表现的影响研究

本文通过逻辑回归和线性回归模型,结合我国深沪两市的上市公司数据,对影响公司市场表现的因素进行了分析。在文中考虑的众多财务和股权指标中,国家股比例显著地影响了公司2003年被"ST"的可能性大小。同时,国家股比例对每股收益和市倍率这些对投资者预期产生重要影响的指标没有显著作用。本文有助于投资者理性的评估国家股在上市公司市场表现中的影响,避免盲目卷入国家股减持题材的股市炒作。     

The Impact of Firm Size and Liquidity on the Cost of External Finance in Africa

Established illiquidity measures are constructed for emerging markets in Africa and used to determine which best explains trading costs. Costs of equity are derived from an augmented Capital Asset Pricing Model for a sample of emerging financial markets generally ignored in the literature. These include: South Africa and Namibia, three countries in North Africa and four in Sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA), plus London and Paris as examples of integrated markets. Minimum variance portfolios are constructed and asset weights derived, with the sample divided into countries dependent on their legal regime. Portfolio weights are shown to be directly related to well‐regulated markets with high standards of corporate governance and disclosure, and firms seeking cost‐effective finance from SSA stock markets are at a distinct disadvantage compared with those in Northern Africa, South Africa and, in particular, London and Paris.     

Heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics on the stock market: A Fund flow analysis

This study examines the heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics on the Japanese stock market using fund flow data. While Fukuda (2015) identifies changes in foreign investors’ expectations from price changes in financial markets, we focus on changes in the quantity demanded of Japanese stocks. We obtain three findings. First, only foreign investors aggressively and immediately purchased Japanese stocks at the onset of Abenomics. Second, since the two years following the launch of Abenomics, foreign investment inflows into Japanese stocks have changed due to external factors originating in the United States. Third, a VAR analysis shows the heterogeneous impacts of Abenomics among investors inside and outside Japan. However, the changes in foreign investors’ expectations are short-lived in the sense that signs of permanent shifts as a result of Abenomics cannot be identified after 2014.     

The co-movement of stock markets in East Asia: Did the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis really strengthen stock market integration?

This paper examines the integration and causality of interdependencies among seven major East Asian stock exchanges before, during, and after the 1997–1998 Asian financial crisis. For this purpose, we use daily stock market data from July 1, 1992 to June 30, 2003 in local currency as well as US dollar terms. The data reveal that the relationships among East Asian stock markets are time varying. While stock market interactions are limited before the Asian financial crisis, we find that Hong Kong and Singapore respond significantly to shocks in most other East Asian markets, including Shanghai and Shenzhen, during this crisis. After the crisis, shocks in Hong Kong and Singapore largely affect other East Asian stock markets, except for those in Mainland China. Finally, considering the role of the USA shows that it strongly influences stock returns in East Asia – except for Mainland China – in all periods, while the reverse does not hold true.