科学发展观的十大理论特色

科学发展观具有体系的系统性、思维的开放性、历史的继承性、方式的辩证性、对象的人文性、内容的民族性、理论的科学性、视野的全球性、主体的普遍性、作用的导航性理论特色,认识这些特点,对于践行科学发展观具有重大的现实意义。     

重庆市城市用地供需状况研究

首先从供给数量和供给质量两方面,分析了重庆市区城市建设用地的供给状况。耕地在重庆市城市建设用地的供给来源中占有重要地位,但供给数量有限;受重庆市区自然条件的限制,城市建设用地的质量较差,表现在坡地多、平地少,冲沟多、地块小,难建地多、宜建地少,所以,重庆市城市建设用地的供给能力相当有限。其次,分析了重庆市区城市建设用地的需求状况。从城市GDP的增长、重点建设项目和城市人均用地水平的提高这三个方面分析了城市建设用地的未来需求趋势。结论是：重庆城市建设用地的供给相当有限,而需求量很大;随着未来重庆市经济社会的发展,城市用地的供需矛盾将成为城市发展中面临的一个重大问题。从合理利用和保护土地资源,为重庆的经济发展提供用地支持和保障的角度出发,文章就此问题提出了对策和建议。     

Nonperforming Loans and Purchase of Loans by Public Asset Management Companies in Malaysia and Thailand

This paper explores the factors which eliminated the nonperforming loan (NPL) problem in Malaysia and Thailand following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The number of NPL, which expanded in the aftermath of the crisis, has since declined in most South‐East Asian countries. Although previous studies have explored the causes of the increase in NPL numbers, few have analysed the factors that contributed to the reduction in their number in Asia. In Malaysia and Thailand, authorities put in place several measures to manage NPL. As a vehicle to acquire NPL from banks, Malaysia established the Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Berhad (Danaharta) in 1998, while Thailand established the Thai Asset Management Corporation (TAMC) in 2001. We analyse whether the characteristic features of banks, improvements in macroeconomic conditions, and facilities for purchasing loans caused a reduction in the number of NPL in Malaysia and Thailand. The results suggest that selling loans to a public asset management company was effective in reducing the number of NPL in Thailand. While macroeconomic conditions influenced the decline in NPL ratios in Thailand, in Malaysia, well performing commercial banks and large commercial and investment banks generally had smaller NPL ratios throughout and following the crisis.     

Trends in time allocation: A cross-country analysis

Using detailed time-use data for seven industrialized countries from the 1970s until today we document general decreases in men's market work coupled with increases in men's unpaid work and child care, and increases in women's paid work and child care coupled with decreases in unpaid work. We also find almost universal increases in the time devoted to watching television over this period, and uncover a widespread increase in leisure inequality in favor of lower educated adults. Trends in leisure inequality mirror the general increase in income and earnings inequality experienced in most countries over this period, especially after the mid-1980s. All these findings are consistent with previous results for the US. However, in contrast to the increases in leisure found for the US, we fail to find common trends in leisure time across countries over the period analyzed.     

OUTPUT GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL REFORM IN LATIN AMERICA: HAVE BUSINESS CYCLES CHANGED?

This paper documents important changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of six large Latin American countries. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of a structural break in real GDP toward stronger mean growth and a substantial reduction in volatility. Second, the timing of the breaks suggests that the important changes in economic policies of the 1980s and 1990s have been effective in permanently improving economic growth in the region. These changes in the growth processes imply recessions that are shorter in duration and milder in amplitude. The sustained increase in commodity prices observed in recent years explains an important share of growth in the region since 2003. But after accounting for the effect of commodity prices, there is even stronger evidence of a structural break in real GDP growth. (JEL E32)     

THE TIMING OF SIGNALING: TO STUDY IN HIGH SCHOOL OR IN COLLEGE?*

American students study harder in college than in high school, whereas East Asian students study harder in high school than in college. This article proposes a signaling explanation. Signaling may occur over time both in high school and in college, and societies may differ in the timing of signaling. Students work harder in the signaling stage determined by the society as a whole. A testable implication is that high ability workers in East Asia are more concentrated among a few colleges than their U.S. counterparts. This implication is confirmed by top CEO education profile data in the United States and Korea.     

开放条件下中国工业能源强度的影响因素分析——基于31个行业面板数据的实证分析

本文运用中国工业31个行业1998年-2004年的面板数据,分析了能源价格、FDI的进入程度、进出口商品结构、工业内部的行业结构和R＆D投资强度对中国工业能源强度的影响。研究发现,能源价格的上涨对提高工业能源利用效率有显著的促进作用;降低FDI的进入程度与R＆D投资强度都有助于降低工业特别是高能源强度行业的能源强度;降低高能源强度行业的出口额在工业出口总额中的比重,有利于降低高能源强度行业的能源强度,进口商品结构变化对工业能源强度没有显著影响;降低高能源强度行业的工业增加值在整个工业增加值中的比重,有助于降低全工业行业和低能源强度行业的能源强度。     

Productivity change in Canadian mining 1957–1979

This paper calculates multifactor productivity trends in seven Canadian mining industries and relates changes in productivity to various factors, including changes in output and factor prices and the decline in the quality of the ore being mined. It is found that productivity decline in mining has been pronounced and tended to predate that of manufacturing by several years. There are indications that the most important factors in the decline have been the fall in mineral grade, contraction of output, increases in interest rates and an apparent decline in the rate of technical innovation.     

Determinants of age at marriage in Karnataka during 1971-1981: a district level analysis

"In this paper we examined the interdistrict variations in mean age at marriage of males and females in Karnataka [India] in two points of time, 1971 and 1981, and also the possible factors influencing this variation....A multivariate analysis of the determinants of mean age at marriage in Karnataka showed that literacy rate, sex ratio of the population and percentage of villages electrified are important in explaining the regional and time variation in age at marriage of both sexes.... Our regression results indicated that a 10 per cent increase in female literacy rate is associated with approximately one-year increase in female age at marriage. However, neither the increase in female literacy nor the changes in the sex ratio of the population could explain all the increase in female age at marriage during 1971-81. This indirectly suggests that there was an increase in female age at marriage among all socio-economic groups."     

The impact from changes in stock market valuations on investment: new economy versus old economy

This paper investigates whether there is a different impact from changes in ‘new’ and ‘old’ economy stock valuations on private investment for seven OECD economies. A vector autoregressive model is estimated for each individual country, using quarterly data over the period 1990–2000. It is found that the impact from changes in valuations of new economy stocks to investment is roughly the same in North America and in the United Kingdom as in continental Europe. By contrast, the impact from changes in old economy stock valuations on investment is, in general, larger in North America and in the United Kingdom than in continental Europe. Finally, the results suggest that in continental Europe the impact on investment from changes in the valuation of new economy stocks is bigger than for old economy stocks, whereas for North America and the United Kingdom, the impact is more similar.     

Male and Female Happiness in Japan During the 2000s: Trends During Era of Promotion of Active Participation by Women in Society

Female happiness has been paradoxically declining over recent decades in reverse proportion to expanding opportunities for women in developed countries, but this subject has not been explored in Japan. Using JGSS, we found that Japanese women have been slightly happier in both absolute and relative terms to men in the 2000s. While happiness of men aged 35–49 and 65 and over temporarily declined in the first half of the decade, women in age groups 20–34 and 65 and over gained happiness in the second half. Moreover, trends in life satisfaction in terms of economic aspects are similar for men and women, slightly advantageous to men in marriage, and largely advantageous to women in non‐market and non‐family aspects.     

CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN FACTOR SHARES AND THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME

The way in which cyclical fluctuations in activity in the U.K. economy affect factor income shares and the channels through which these effects work through to the size distribution of income are traced. Using National Accounts data, the impact of an upturn in activity in increasing the shares of profits and self-employment income in factor incomes, and of self-employment and rent, interest and dividends in personal incomes, is quantified. Using Family Expenditure Survey micro-data, the resulting shift in decile shares in personal income, which is towards the top of the size distribution, is estimated.     

Employment effects of foreign acquisition

This paper investigates the employment effects of foreign acquisitions in acquired firms in Swedish manufacturing during the 1990s; a period characterized by a dramatic increase in foreign ownership. We find some evidence of positive employment effects in acquired firms and it seems that the employment of skilled labor increases more than that of less-skilled labor. Our results indicate that the positive employment effects are more pronounced in acquired non-MNEs than in Swedish MNEs. Furthermore, we observe shifts in skill intensities toward higher shares of skilled labor in non-MNEs taken over by foreign MNEs, but not in acquired Swedish MNEs.     

Trade Strategy, Investment and Exports: Another Look at East Asia

The export booms in South Korea and Taiwan starting in the early 1960s are anomalous when compared with later export booms in non-East Asian countries such as Chile and Turkey. First, these booms have taken place in the context of comparatively small changes in relative prices in favor of exportables. Second, they have been associated from the start with booms in investment. This paper offers evidence and a formal model to suggest that exports in East Asia may have been driven by an increase in the profitability of investment, with outward orientation a consequence of the investment boom rather than its instigator.     

Public trust and corruption perception: disaster relief

Public trust in government and nongovernment organizations is essential to the public’s willingness to donate and to support those organizations. We measure public trust in disaster aid using people’s perception of these organizations’ effectiveness in delivering aid relief to the victims of two recent major earthquakes in China. Based on the survey data collected in 2013 from about 2100 residents in Hong Kong, we document the vulnerability of these residents’ trust perceptions in aid delivery. We find that the sharp decline in trust perception is highly negatively correlated with their perception of corruption of local governments in China.     

Trade Liberalization and the Efficiency of Firms in Indian Manufacturing

Has the efficiency of firms in India improved since its liberalization in 1991? The authors attempt to answer this question by analyzing the determinants of firm‐level efficiency in six manufacturing sectors in India while focusing on the effects of liberalization and domestic competition. They find that there was an increase in overall efficiency in the post‐reform period in India in five out of the six sectors. While imports do not seem to improve efficiency, liberalization did increase efficiency in four of the sectors.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH PATTERNS IN FRANCE AND THE UNITED STATES

We find that household wealth is distributed more unequally in the U.S. in 1983 than France in 1986. The Gini coefficient is 0.77 for the U.S. and 0.71 for France. There are also significant differences in the composition of wealth. Owner-occupied housing accounted for half of total assets in France, and only 30 percent in the U.S., while corporate stock and financial securities amounted to 19 percent in the U.S. and 8 percent in France. The debt-equity ratio was 0.13 in France and 0.20 in the U.S. The age-wealth profile in the two countries had the characteristic hump-shape predicted by the life-cycle model, but the profile was much flatter in France and peaked for families aged 50–59 in France, compared to 60–69 in the US.     

Changes in Global Trade Patterns and Women's Employment in Manufacturing, 1995–2011

This study investigates the feminization and defeminization trends in manufacturing employment in thirty countries from 1995 to 2011. Utilizing two separate methods, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and factor content analysis (FCA), the study identifies the major industries and trade partners behind the structural shifts in trade that have induced changes in employment and thus in the rates of women’s employment. The findings highlight that, as a general trend, defeminization in manufacturing has persisted in the Global North, led by a negative trade impact in low-technology industries. In the Global South, feminization and defeminization trends are not as straightforward. Despite positive changes in women’s share of employment in medium-high- and high-technology industries, negative gender bias effects of trade changes are found particularly in high-technology industries, where occupations are notably gendered.     

Drug‐related violence and the decline in the number of Mexican cross‐border workers

This study examines how variations in homicide rates in Mexico are associated with the likelihood of participating in cross‐border work, that is, living in Mexico but working in the U.S. Based on Mexican census data from 2000, 2010, and 2015, and information on homicides, a series of ordinary least squares models are estimated to analyze the relationship between cross‐border commuting and homicide rates at the individual level. Fixed effects models are also estimated to study this relationship at the municipal level. The results show that from 2000 to 2010 the increase in homicide rates in northern border municipalities in Mexico reduced the likelihood of being a cross‐border worker, while from 2010 to 2015 the decrease in the homicide rate increased the probability that workers engage in cross‐border work. The decline in the number of cross‐border workers is likely in part a result of the escalation in drug‐related violence that may have led them to change their country of residence.