延迟退休政策的多重效应评析

近年来，随着人口老龄化程度加深，年龄结构发生显著变化，延迟退休成为社会关注和讨论的热点话题。在此背景下，研究退休制度的沿革，从经济、社会和文化三个方面对其进行多重效应评析，可以发现延迟退休政策在一定程度上对经济的增长、减小养老保险金的支付压力、营造良好的文化氛围具有积极的推动作用，但同时也对青年就业、人口出生率、社会公平产生了一定的负面影响。     

关于我国当前延迟退休年龄的探讨

随着人口老龄化加速以及人均寿命的延长,多个国家和地区已经或正准备采取推迟退休年龄的方式来缓解养老保险基金的支付压力。本文主要是对我国延迟退休年龄争论的焦点以及现行退休制度存在的问题的讨论,对我国实行弹性延迟退休年龄提出了几点建议。     

养老金支付缺口：口径、方法与测算分析

基于精算和会计原理,本文对养老金支付缺口的内涵、口径和评估方法做了系统梳理和对比分析,并在不同口径和方法下,对我国城镇基本养老保险社会统筹基金的支付缺口进行了测算,分析了人口、经济和制度因素变动对测算结果的影响。结论表明,尽管在不同评估目的下,养老金支付缺口有不同的评估口径和评估方法,选择不同的精算假设,会得出有差异的评估结果,但在人口老龄化和人口长寿的总体趋势下,我国的养老金支付缺口呈现不断增大的趋势,如果不改革现行制度,养老金的财务可持续性将面临挑战。     

关于我国延迟退休年龄的研究综述

随着我国人口老龄化的不断加深,人口预期寿命的延长,我国现行的退休制度和政策缺陷逐渐显露出来。延迟退休成为专家学者的研究热点。本文旨在通过梳理已有关于延迟退休的研究现状,建议应该针对不同行业、不同群体、不同的人群结构制定差异化、弹性化、渐进式的延迟退休政策。     

我国延迟退休年龄的可行性与相关对策

我国现行法定退休年龄的规定始于1951年，历经了六十多年的漫长岁月。在社会经济飞速发展的今日，人均预期寿命的延长、减轻社会养老压力和弥补养老基金缺口的迫切需要，使得我国推行延迟退休年龄成为必然。本文从我国现行的退休制度谈起，通过对提前退休各种弊端的剖析，论证了延迟退休年龄的必要性和可行性。并提出了完善我国延迟退休年龄的相关对策。     

延迟退休政策对我国收入分配格局的影响

我国是全球目前唯一的老年人口过亿的国家,人口老龄化意味着我国的老年人口负担系数在不断提高,也意味着劳动投入量的日益递减。同时,由于退休人员数量的与日俱增以及人口老龄化趋势的日益增强,促使基本养老保险基金面临着空前的支付压力,这也成为当前我国社会保障机制所遇到的最棘手的问题。通过深入研究延迟退休政策,对其进行利弊分析进而提出延迟退休政策在我国实行时应当注意的问题以及推行建议。     

对延迟退休政策的分析与探究

从理论上分析,采取延迟退休年龄的做法,可有助于增收减支,缓解养老保险基金的支付压力。但同时也有一些人担心退休年龄推迟后,老年职工退出劳动力市场的时间更晚,会挤出青年就业,使其失业率上升。甚至有人定量地计算了推迟退休年限、推迟拿养老金,反而让自己多年缴纳的养老金和自己寿命之间的数字矛盾与损失。基于此,本文主要探讨退休年龄与青年失业率之间的定量关系、分析一下推迟退休对自身获得养老金损失的影响。     

我国试行弹性退休制度的可行性研究

目前,我国法定退休年龄偏低,职工缴费年限偏短,而领取养老金的年限偏长,伴随着人口老龄化压力的增大和我国人口的平均预期寿命的延长,我国养老保险的支出负担将会越来越重,退休年龄制度的改革势在必行。从我国法定退休年龄的现状出发,分析我国现行法定退休年龄制度存在的问题以及试行弹性退休制度的可行性,最后在此基础上提出试行弹性退休制度的建议。     

延迟退休的几点思考

未福先老以及低于世界水平的退休年龄是中国经济社会长期发展过程中凸显的一个特征,随着老龄化的到来,人口预期寿命的延长,养老金基金平衡压力越来越大,延迟退休成为了一种必然趋势.如何延迟退休、 延迟退休过程中所带来的经济社会影响这是必须要在政策制定、 执行过程中所考虑的问题.本文以"95制、96制、97制、98制、99制"为延迟退休的政策方案,来探讨在政策实行过程可能出现的利与弊.     

浅析社会养老“延迟退休”政策

随着社会经济的发展,社会养老保险的作用不断凸显,社会养老保险的"空帐"问题也日益突出。人社部于2012年6月提出了"延迟退休"的解决方法,引发广泛的社会探讨。"延迟退休"有利亦有弊,但公众焦点从养老金的支付蔓延到养老制度双轨制的公平性,"延迟退休"的实行需要一定的社会基础,制度改革也将是重要方面。     

扩大中国养老保障覆盖率的对策分析

中国目前的养老保障覆盖率远低于世界发达国家的平均水平。随着中国经济的持续增长,如何在国家财政可承受的范围内,尽快而有效地扩大包括非城镇人口在内的养老保障覆盖率,是一个亟待研究和解决的问题。文中分析比较了中国与美国、德国、英国、法国、日本、新加坡、智利等国养老保障体系的异同点,探讨了人口与GDP,养老金债务与GDP之间的关系,提出了扩大中国养老保障覆盖率的建议性对策。     

An evaluation of the life cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior

In this paper we explore the effects of the minimum pension program on welfare and retirement in Spain. This is done with a stylized life cycle model which provides a convenient analytical characterization of optimal behavior. We use data from the Spanish Social Security to estimate the behavioral parameters of the model and then simulate the changes induced by the minimum pension in aggregate retirement patterns. The impact is substantial: there is a threefold increase in retirement at 60 (the age of first entitlement) with respect to the economy without minimum pensions, and total early retirement (before or at 60) is almost 50% larger. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of Future Demographic Changes on the US Economy: Evidence from a Long-term Simulation Model

Demographics, especially the size and the age composition of the population, contribute substantially to the growth and structure of any economy. Over the next 55 years, the age composition of the US population will change dramatically, as the post-World War II ‘baby boom’ ages into retirement. In this paper, we use a long-term interindustry macro model of the US economy to examine how the age composition of the US population affects overall economic growth as well as the output/employment structure of the economy. We find that the system of funding government commitments to pension and medical care for the elderly is a primary channel through which demographic effects translate into economic effects.     

随机利率下缴费预定计划职业年金的替代率研究

事业单位养老保险制度改革关系到我国基本养老保险制度的改革进程和可持续发展问题,而面对事业单位养老金替代率90％,企业单位替代率60％的差距,事业单位养老保险制度改革遇到了一定的阻力．本文考察了如果采用缴费预定计划（Dc计划）建立职业年金,事业单位养老保险的替代率问题．养老金的投资收益率是影响替代率的关键因素,而这一因素受金融市场影响较大,这里假设它为随机变量。研究发现：（1）由于女性职工的法定退休年龄早,平均寿命又比较长,对于相同的缴费率,男性的养老金替代率明显高于女性的替代率;（2）缴费率是影响替代率的另一因素,为了保持较为合理的替代率,实现养老保险制度的平稳改革,我们建议合适的缴费率为11%。     

中国服务贸易竞争力影响因素的数理分析

服务贸易对一国经济增长有重要影响,一定程度上决定了一国国际贸易在国际市场上的竞争能力。文章分析了影响服务贸易竞争力的四个因素:外商直接投资、服务贸易开放度、货物贸易发展水平、劳动力素质,对这些影响因素与服务贸易的关系进行了实证检验,提出了促进我国服务贸易发展的七项对策建议。     

Using simulation as a tool in selecting a retirement age under defined benefit pension plans

This paper examines how simulation modeling can be used to select a retirement age under defined benefit pension plans. This approach construes the variables affecting pension benefits as probabilistic variables. Simulations are then run to generate probabilistic values for the real value of pension benefits for alternative retirement ages. By construing variables affecting pension benefits as probability distributions, this approach reflects the uncertainty facing individuals contemplating retirement. By generating estimates of retirement benefits as probability distributions rather than as single deterministic values, the model provides individuals with a more realistic and complete frame of reference for making the retirement decision. The author is grateful to an anonymous referee and Joachim Zietz. JEF editor, for helpful comments.     

Australia's retirement income system

This paper reviews the current reforms to Australia's retirement income structure which now incorporates a means-tested age pension, a compulsory retirement enefit system which is fully unded in the private sector and a voluntary savings scheme. This approach has been widely discussed in he international scene and some consider it to epresent an ideal structure. However, a number of fundamental problems remain and these are discussed.     

中国住房反向抵押贷款养老模式的路径选择

人口老龄化是不可忽视的社会问题,寻求积极的养老模式是迫在眉睫的任务。住房反向抵押贷款作为新的养老模式,受到政治、经济、文化等多方面因素影响。本研究旨在从需求角度分析对住房反向抵押贷款最具影响力的因素,设计出中国推行住房反向抵押贷款养老模式的地区发展路径。研究结果有助于制定适合中国国情的住房反向抵押贷款养老模式,从而实现社会资源优化配置。     

Which factors affect the sustainability of pension schemes?

This article seeks to determine the most influential factors on the sustainability of a pension system. To this end, an empirical analysis was conducted on a sample of 13 countries, with different characteristics, according to three criteria: the size of the pension system's assets, the old-age dependency ratio and the success of the system according to the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index. The results of this preliminary study show that countries with successful pension systems share a high rate of formal employment, good political stability, high life expectancy at birth, and a good rate of coverage by the pension system.     

Population,pensions, and endogenous economic growth

We study the effect of a declining labor force on the incentives to engage in labor-saving technical change and ask how this effect is influenced by institutional characteristics of the pension scheme. When labor is scarcer it becomes more expensive and innovation investments that increase labor productivity are more profitable. We incorporate this channel in a new dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous economic growth and heterogeneous overlapping generations. We calibrate the model for the US economy and obtain the following results. First, the effect of a decline in population growth on labor productivity growth is positive and quantitatively significant. In our benchmark, it is predicted to increase from an average annual growth rate of 1.74% over 1990–2000 to 2.41% in 2100. Second, institutional characteristics of the pension system matter both for the growth performance and for individual welfare. Third, the assessment of pension reform proposals may depend on whether economic growth is endogenous or exogenous.