是土地供应量与房地产税赋提高了房价吗

自分税制实施后,“土地财政”成为我国地方政府获取收入以支撑财政支出的主要选择,而与此同时房价也在不断上涨。中央政府从民生角度要求地方政府对房价实施调控,地方政府则主要通过调整土地供给量和房地产税税赋来施加影响。土地供应量和税赋会影响供需双方从而影响房价,反过来房价又会影响税收收入及开发商对土地的需求,进而影响社会民生。本文对我国东、中、西部地区住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的关系进行分析,探讨各地区的住房价格上涨原因。通过构建住房价格和土地供给量、房地产税税赋之间的PVAR模型,利用格兰杰因果检验、脉冲分析和方差分解方法来透视地方政府行为对住房价格的影响。分析结果显示,地方政府行为和房价之间存在着联动关系,但在推动住房价格上涨的原因上存在着区域差异：在东部地区,土地供应量影响房价;中部地区,二者联合推动了房价上涨。而在西部地区,房地产税税赋对房价的影响明显。在政策建议上,对地价推动房价的地区要从丰富住房来源和数量入手,而税赋影响房价的地区则要完善相关税制改革。     

MARKET RESPONSES TO CLIMATE STRESS: RICE IN JAVA IN THE 1930S

Do markets in less-developed countries abate consequences of climate stress? Using changes in regional rice prices across the 19 regions in Java, Indonesia, during 1935–40, this paper will assess how rice markets responded to variations in rainfall, which is an important factor in rice production. It finds that rice markets were highly integrated across Java. The El Niño-induced episodes of lower than usual rainfall in 1935 and 1940 did not have a negative effect on levels and variations in regional rice prices, nor did they have adverse consequences for the supply of rice. Adaptive responses of firms specialising in the trade of rice are argued to have mitigated regional deficiencies in food production caused by climate stress.     

海南自贸港12个重点产业的科技支撑能力提升策略

12个重点产业对海南省经济社会发展具有重要意义,但普遍存在科技能力不足的问题.研究发现:海南高新技术产业发展相对滞后,相较于2013年,2018年规模以上工业企业的研发人员投入和专利产出均较大幅度减少;企业的研发主体地位不突出,企业在全社会研发经费中的占比低;全省科技投入强度弱,技术市场发展相对滞后,省内企业对技术的需求有待挖掘.借鉴农业机械和医药制造的科技支撑产业发展经验,提出强化政府引导、保障技术供给、挖掘技术需求方面的建议,着力提高科技对12个重点产业的支撑引领能力.     

Monopolistic competition with cross-country technological differences and international trade

We develop a two-factor, three-sector model of international trade in which there are cross-country technological differences in the monopolistically competitive sector. Firms in one country have a technology with high fixed costs and low marginal costs; firms in the other country have a technology with low fixed but high marginal costs. Under this model, although not under the monopolistically competitive model with identical technologies, trade patterns are determined by the interaction between the distribution of factor endowments (i.e., the Heckscher–Ohlin aspect) and technological differences in the monopolistically competitive sector (i.e., the Chamberlinian–Ricardian aspect). Furthermore, we show that autarky commodity prices are not very useful for predicting trade patterns, which is counterintuitive and again contrary to findings under the monopolistically competitive model with identical technologies.     

Was technological change in the early Industrial Revolution Schumpeterian? Evidence of cotton textile profitability

Price and profit data between the 1770s and the 1820s from accounting records of three Lancashire cotton firms help to illumine the nature of the economic processes at work in early industrialization. Many historians have seen the Industrial Revolution as a Schumpeterian process in which discontinuous technological change led by the mechanized factories of the cotton industry created large profits for innovators that persisted in succeeding decades while technology slowly diffused. In this view imperfect capital markets limited the use of the new technology, keeping profits high. Reinvestment of these profits gradually financed expansion of innovating firms. The new technology dominated only after a long diffusion process. The evidence here, however, supports a more equilibrium view in which the industry expanded rapidly and prices fell in response to technological change. Expansion of the industry led to dramatic declines in the prices of cotton goods as early as the 1780s. There is no evidence of super-normal profits thereafter. Prices continued to fall and output expand thereafter as cost-reducing technological change continued.     

Demand forces of technical change evidence from the Chinese manufacturing industry

This paper investigates the effect of domestic market size on innovation activities across different durable good industries in the Chinese manufacturing sector. We address the endogeneity of market size by an IV strategy, based on a measure of potential market size, which is driven only by changes in the Chinese income distribution. This measure is exogenous to changes in prices and qualities of durable goods and is a valid instrument for expected future market size. Our results indicate that an increase in market size by one percent leads to an increase in firm-specific total factor productivity by 0.46% and an increase in labor productivity by 0.50%. These findings are robust to controlling for export behavior of firms and supply side drivers of R&D.     

Supply chain trade and technological transfer in the ASEAN + 3 region

This paper analyses how economic integration and the international division of labour have evolved among the ASEAN + 3 countries in the last 20 years. The paper proposes an indicator of the level of technological sophistication based on revealed comparative advantages and uses it to investigate the relation between technological advance, factor endowments and supply chain trade. It is shown that supply chain-trade does not facilitate technological transfer. On the contrary: FDI appears to have significant and negative spill-over effects on technological change. Positive spill-overs from FDI materialize only when host countries have sufficiently high levels of education.     

基于VAR模型对商品房价格影响因素的实证分析——以上海市房价为例

选取上海市房价作为研究对象,通过建立VAR模型来分析上海市地价、居民消费价格指数、房屋竣工面积、贷款利率、货币供应量及热钱流入对上海市商品房价格的影响。协整分析表明,各个变量之间具有长期的均衡关系。Granger因果检验表明,上海市商品房价格与地价之间存在双向的Granger因;货币供应量、贷款利率、房屋竣工面积、热钱与上海市商品房价格是单向Granger因;而上海市居民消费价格指数与商品房价格互不为Granger因。     

Commodity prices and global economic activity

Commodity prices provide useful information about current and future global economic activity. First, we show that overall commodity prices indeed tend to comove with economic activity. Second, we try to extract the global demand factor(s) using many commodity prices. While commodity prices reflect both demand and supply factors, by relying on a wide variety of commodity prices, supply shocks can be filtered out as they tend to be commodity-specific idiosyncratic shocks except for widespread supply disruptions confined to a few historical periods. In this paper, we then show that factors extracted from commodity prices movement contain useful information to nowcast and forecast global GDP and industrial production.     

Relationship Between Domestic Research and Development Activity and Technology Importation: An Empirical Investigation of Japanese Manufacturing Industries

This paper investigates the relationship between domestic research and development (R&D) activity and technological importation. We estimate the elasticity of factor inputs with respect to input prices using a cost minimization framework and time series data for Japanese manufacturing industries over the 1971–2000 period. The results show that domestic R&D activity and imported technology correlate with each other in the R&D-intensive industries, and the relationship is affected by the characteristics of the industry. Moreover, it is found that domestic R&D activity tends to be correlated with capital saving, while imported technology tends to be correlated with increased capital formation and employment.     

国家高新区设立能够提升城市全要素生产率吗？——基于261个地级市TFP分解数据的路径分析

国家高新区是培育经济增长新动能，实现区域经济高质量发展的重要政策载体，文章利用2001-2014年我国261个城市面板数据，通过渐进双重差分法研究国家高新区设立对城市全要素生产率的影响。研究发现：研究期内国家高新区的设立对城市全要素生产率造成显著的负面影响；从TFP的分解项来看，高新区设立促进了所在城市规模效率提高，却抑制了技术进步和技术效率提高；异质性分析结果表明上述作用具有显著城市等级异质性，在高行政等级城市设立高新区对城市全要素生产率具有促进作用。进一步运用工业企业数据库、微观土地转让数据、城市专利数据等进行机制分析发现，企业间资源错配和土地价格扭曲降低了技术效率，而技术创新下降和产业升级钝化是抑制技术进步的主要机制。     

中国对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应研究

对外直接投资对母国技术进步的逆向技术溢出效应是国际经济学研究的一个较新论题,也是中国政府推出"走出去"战略的重要预期之一。本文利用2003～2007年的省际面板数据检验了我国对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出效应,实证结果表明,我国的逆向技术溢出存在着较大的地区差异,吸收能力影响逆向技术溢出的大小。另外,对外直接投资对国内技术效率的影响不显著,国内R&D投资促进了国内全要素生产率的提高和技术进步,同时阻碍了国内技术效率的提高。在以上结论的基础上,本文对中国"走出去"战略的实施提出了相应的政策建议。     

Manorial economy and corvée labour in southern Sweden 1650–1850*

This essay is an inquiry into manorial production in Scania. Its growth was dependent on the long‐term development of European grain prices. When prices increased landlords were encouraged to put more land under the plough. The estates’ main income came, to an increasing extent, from demesne production, which finally dominated the income profile. The peasants’ most important contribution to the landlords became, in most cases, their corvée labour, and their uncertain tenure rights were illustrated with great clarity in the continuing evictions, which were accelerated in the nineteenth century with the aim of expanding the demesne.     

Inter-regional difference of agricultural productivity in China: Distinction between biochemical and machinery technology

The major objective of this article is to measure the inter-regional difference in agricultural productivity of China, and then to test empirically whether or not some relevant hypotheses with respect to agricultural technology are valid. The analysis shows that biochemical (BC) technological changes account for a significant part of China's agricultural production growth. This result is consistent with the fact that China's factor endowments are characterized by abundant farm labor relative to scarce arable land. Besides, in accordance with the standard theory of market failure, the benefits accruing to BC technological development are not privately appropriable. Thus, it can be hypothesized that the inter-regional difference in BC technological attainment must be closely associated with public spending in agricultural R&E activities at a local level. The random effects model reveals that the BC technological level is high in provinces where the public sectors are seriously committed to R&E activities. In addition, the analysis lends strong support to the validity of the induced innovation hypothesis with respect to M technological progress.     

居住用地供给对上海住房市场的影响——基于动态存量一流量模型的实证研究

文章运用住房市场存量-流量模型,动态分析居住用地供给对新建商品住房供给及住房价格的影响,并据此模拟不同居住用地供给思路下商品住房市场的运行状况。基于上海数据的实证分析发现：政府新增居住用地供给对一定时期后的新建商品住房供给具有显著影响;居住用地供给能够影响远期住房价格,但很难对当期住房价格产生影响。模拟结果显示：增加居住用地供给所能起到平抑房价的作用较为有限。据此提出,政府居住用地供给应着眼于长期,不宜依据短期住房市场状况进行频繁调整。     

基于因子分析的工业企业技术创新能力评价

以2012年工业企业科技活动数据为样本,构建了工业企业技术创新能力评价指标体系,运用因子分析法对数据进行分析并提取两个公共因子：技术创新投入因子和技术创新产出因子,对不同所有制类型的工业企业技术创新能力进行评价。结果表明：企业办科技机构数、技术改造经费支出对创新投入因子的贡献最大;有限责任公司、股份有限公司和外商投资企业在技术创新投入因子得分以及总得分上排名前三;股份合作企业与联营企业产出因子排名和总排名均处于最后两位。     

新疆发展蔬菜产业、稳定蔬菜价格的对策研究

蔬菜价格是推高居民消费价格总水平（CPI）的重要因素之一。进入2012年,新疆蔬菜价格呈现快速上涨态势,价格持续维持高位运行,居高不下,对城乡居民生活水平影响较大。本文从2012年上半年蔬菜价格变动特点入手,分析了蔬菜生产、流通等方面存在的问题及其价格偏高的原因,提出了促进设施蔬菜生产、保供应、稳价格的政策建议。     

日本两部分水价制度对我国的借鉴意义研究

自来水事业既具有公用事业的性质也具有一般企业的性质，因此自来水价格的调整对社会福利和企业经营都会产生重要影响．以历史和实证的研究方法，对日本自来水价格的历史变迁和两部分水价制度进行分析，可从理论和实践两个方面，为我国的自来水定价提供借鉴。     

房地产市场利益主体博弈分析

中国房地产市场出现的房价过快上涨是中央政府、地方政府、开发商、投机客、自住客等多方利益主体复杂博弈且利益格局严重失衡的结果。房价持续上行以至调控难以奏效的重要原因之一,是地方政府对土地供给的垄断经营以及由此衍生的反市场化行为。     

劳动密集型中小企业技术创新影响因素实证研究——基于江苏省镇江市的样本数据检验

劳动密集型企业是我国经济体系的重要组成部分,具有中小企业与民营企业的双重特征。技术创新是劳动密集型中小企业成长的关键性策略。劳动密集型中小企业技术创新绩效包括八个影响因素:人力资源管理创新、组织结构创新、原创性技术创新、营销机制创新、品牌创新、原材料供应创新、工艺流程创新与信息技术创新。实证性的研究表明,在镇江市劳动密集型中小企业技术创新机制中,人力资源管理创新、组织结构创新、营销机制创新、原材料供应创新与工艺流程创新等发生了实质性的作用,而原创性技术创新、品牌创新与信息技术创新没有产生实质性的功能。检验结论为镇江市劳动密集型中小企业技术创新的深入实施提供了现实性的理论借鉴。