Persistency of Turkish export shocks: a quantile autoregression (QAR) approach

This study analyzes the persistency of total and disaggregated Turkish exports for different shock magnitudes using the quantile autoregression (QAR) method in line with Koenker and Xiao (J Am Stat Assoc 99:775–787, 2004). The results suggest that the persistence of shocks are not similar across different quantiles of Total Exports and disaggregated export sectors, indicating an asymmetry in the case of negative and positive shocks across different export sectors. The persistency behavior of Total Exports as well as Food and Beverages, Chemicals, Basic Metals, Raw Materials, Motor Vehicles and Radio & TV exports are asymmetric to negative versus positive shocks, which cannot be captured by traditional unit root tests. Thus, sound interpretation of QAR results is necessary for policy makers to identify shock characteristics and thereby pursue appropriate policies for overcoming adverse impacts on the economy.     

On the performance of rule-based contribution schemes under endowment heterogeneity

We experimentally test different rule-based contribution mechanisms in a repeated 4-player public goods game with endowment heterogeneity and compare them to a VCM, distinguishing between a random and an effort-based allocation of endowments. We find that endowment heterogeneities limit the efficiency gains from these rule-based contribution schemes under random allocation. Under effort-based allocations, substantial efficiency gains relative to a VCM occur. These are largely driven by significant reductions of contributions in VCM, while the rule-based mechanisms generate stable efficiency levels, even though falling short in realizing the maximal efficiency gains. Our results indicate that the procedure of endowment allocation impacts the perception of what constitutes a fair burden sharing.     

Joint misrepresentation with bribes

We study the problem of assigning objects to buyers. Monetary transfers are allowed. Each buyer’s preference space contains, but is not limited to, the linear additively separable preferences. A rule maps each preference profile to an allocation. We are concerned about the possibility that a group of buyers may engage in the following kind of manipulation: They make side payments internally and then carry out a joint misrepresentation. A rule is strongly group strategy-proof if no group can gain by engaging in such operations. We also consider several other appealing requirements. We find that the posted-price rules are the only one that satisfies non-triviality, non-imposition, envy-freeness, and strong group strategy-proofness.     

Finance and sources of growth: evidence from the U.S. states

How does financial development affect economic growth: through its impact on accumulation of physical and human capital or by boosting total factor productivity (TFP) growth? We use a new data set on output, inputs, and total factor productivity for the US states to study this question. Unlike previous cross-country research that tries to disentangle the channels through which financial development impacts growth, we use a plausibly exogenous measure of financial development: the timing of banking deregulation across states during the period 1970–2000. At the same time our new data set allows us to go beyond what was previously done in the state banking deregulation literature and identify whether finance impacts states’ input accumulation or TFP growth. We find, in line with existing cross-country studies, that deregulation boosts growth by accelerating both TFP growth and the accumulation of physical capital without having any impact on human capital. In contrast to the cross-country studies, we also find that the effects of deregulation are largely independent of states’ initial level of development; both rich and poor states grow faster after deregulation. Additionally, since our data set breaks down aggregate output into three sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, and the remaining industries, we are able to show that deregulation accelerates the growth of productivity in manufacturing. This last finding answers an important critique of the banking deregulation studies which asserts that observed growth effects may be coming from the growth of financial industry itself and not from the beneficial effect of finance on other industries, such as manufacturing.     

Algebra of Integrated Time Series: Evidence from Unit Root Analysis

It is argued if x_t ~ I(1) and y_t ~ I(1), then running a regression x_t on y_t would produce spurious results because e _t would generally be I(1). However, there may exist a ‘b’ such that e _t  = x _t - by _t is I(0), then running a regression x _t on y _t would not produce spurious results. This special case of two integrated time series is known in the literature as cointegration. In this particular case, x _t and y _t are said to be cointegrated. In our review of the development of the concept of cointegration, we identified that the underlying reason for this special case to arise is the proposition that if x _t  ~ I(d _x ), y _t  ~ I(d _y ), then z _t  = bx _t  + cy _t  ~ I(max(d _x ,d _y )). In this research, we offer evidence against this proposition.     

On choosing which game to play when ignorant of the rules

This paper suggests a theory of choice among strategic situations when the rules of play are not properly specified. We take the view that a “strategic situation” is adequately described by a TU game since it specifies what is feasible for each coalition but is silent on the procedures that are used to allocate the surplus. We model the choice problem facing a decision maker (DM) as having to choose from finitely many “actions”. The known “consequence” of the ith action is a coalition from game f _i over a fixed set of players \(N_i\cup\{d\}\) (where d stands for the DM). Axioms are imposed on her choice as the list of consequences (f ₁,..., f _m ) from the m actions varies. We characterize choice rules that are based on marginal contributions of the DM in general and on the Shapley Value in particular.     

Tops-only domains

In this paper we consider the standard voting model with a finite set of alternatives A and n voters and address the following question: what are the characteristics of domains \({\mathcal D}\) that induce the property that every strategy-proof social choice function \({f: {\mathcal D}^n \rightarrow A}\) satisfying unanimity, has the tops-only property? We first impose a minimal richness condition which ensures that for every alternative a, there exists an admissible ordering where a is maximal. We identify conditions on \({\mathcal D}\) that are sufficient for strategy-proofness and unanimity to imply tops onlyness in the general case of n voters and in the special case, n = 2. We provide an algorithm for constructing tops-only domains from connected graphs with elements of A as nodes. We provide several applications of our results. Finally, we relax the minimal richness assumption and partially extend our results.     

Mixture periodic GARCH models: theory and applications

This paper discusses mixture periodic GARCH (M-PGARCH) models that constitute very flexible class of nonlinear time series models of the conditional variance. It turns out that they are more parsimonious comparatively to MPARCH models. We first provide some probabilistic properties of this class of models. We thus propose an estimation method based on the expectation-maximization algorithm. Finally, we apply this methodology to model the spot rates of the Algerian dinar against euro and US dollar. This empirical analysis shows that M-PGARCH models yield the best performance among the competing models.     

Does Benford’s Law hold in economic research and forecasting?

First and higher order digits in data sets of natural and socio-economic processes often follow a distribution called Benford’s law. This phenomenon has been used in business and scientific applications, especially in fraud detection for financial data. In this paper, we analyse whether Benford’s law holds in economic research and forecasting. First, we examine the distribution of regression coefficients and standard errors in research papers, published in Empirica and Applied Economics Letters. Second, we analyse forecasts of GDP growth and CPI inflation in Germany, published in Consensus Forecasts. There are two main findings: The relative frequencies of the first and second digits in economic research are broadly consistent with Benford’s law. In sharp contrast, the second digits of Consensus Forecasts exhibit a massive excess of zeros and fives, raising doubts on their information content.     

Electrification,the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and the Decline in Investment Expenditure in 1931–1932: Testing the Excess-Capacity Hypothesis

Beaudreau (1996) argued that the decline in investment expenditure in the early 1930s was the result of two factors, namely the electrification of U.S. manufacturing in the 1910s and 1920s which had resulted in significant excess capacity, and secondly, to the failure of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill in October 1929 to be passed by the Senate, resulting in (i) the Stock Market Crash in October 1929 and (ii) the ensuing precipitous decline in investment expenditure which touched off the Great Depression. In short, the manufacturing sector in the late 1920s found itself with excess capacity, prompting Senator Reed Smoot and the Republican Party to propose another upward revision of the tariff schedule. The failure to deliver on this promise led to the Crash and the ensuing decline in investment expenditure, the cumulative effect of which led to the Great Depression. This paper tests this hypothesis using two-digit industry investment data. As electrification varied considerably across industries it would stand to reason that sectors that electrified the most would have witnessed the largest decreases in investment expenditure (plant and equipment), owing to the presence of excess capacity. The results confirm this hypothesis, leading us to conclude that electrification-based excess capacity may have been an important cause of the downturn in 1930 and 1931.     

Old (Chicago) school,new century: the link between Knight and Simons’ Chicago plan to Buchanan’s constitutional money

James Buchanan had long been a champion of the early Chicago school’s emphasis on the essential role that institutions play in framing the market process. In his post-2009 analysis of the financial crisis, Buchanan echoed his old Chicago mentors like Frank Knight and Henry Simons in arguing that the Great Recession, like all previous financial crises, was primarily a failure of the rules governing our monetary-financial system. This “old Chicago” emphasis on the institutional “rules of the game” formed the basis of his essential post-2009 argument that the financial crisis fundamentally represented not a market failure, per say, but a constitutional failure. In this paper, I connect the dots in Buchanan’s post-2009 analysis of the Great Recession and his reaffirmation of the need for “constitutional money” to his old Chicago mentor’s strikingly similar calls for a radical restructuring of the monetary-financial system in the Chicago Plan of the 1930s. Though Buchanan’s twenty-first century resurrection of these ideas has yet to conjure up the academic support of his predecessors, certain elements of his “old school” monetary-financial reforms have experienced a strong revival since the financial crisis, as has Buchanan’s more general call to “constitutionalize money.”     

The scope of auctions in the presence of downstream interactions and information externalities

We scrutinize the scope of auctions for firm acquisitions in the presence of downstream interactions and information externalities. We show that no mechanism exists that allows an investor to acquire a low-cost firm under incomplete information: a separating auction implies adverse selection and relies substantially on commitment to allocation and transfer rules. A pooling auction serves as a commitment device against ex-post opportunistic behavior and alleviates adverse selection. It can earn the investor a higher expected payoff than a separating auction, even when consistency is required as to qualify for a sequential equilibrium.     

General Equilibrium Tragedy of the Commons

Many poor economies depend on open access resources for their livelihoods. Households in resource-based economies allocate their time and other factors between resource extraction and other activities. As a result, factors may shift from one sector to another as marginal returns change. This has two important implications. First, it implies potentially strong linkages between resource and non-resource sectors. Second, it means that unmanaged resources cause inefficient allocations of inputs across all sectors, and the effects of resource management spill into other sectors. We construct a local general equilibrium model that accounts for inputs that over-allocate to an open access resource and create a general equilibrium tragedy of the commons. This model describes resource rent dissipation more adequately in economies with mobile factors than a model with slowly dissipating rents. Perfectly mobile factors dissipate rent in every period, but endogenous wages cause labor and capital allocations to change with the resource stock. We use the model to illustrate medium-run impacts of a limit on capital in an artisanal fishery in Honduras. Simulation results reveal that fishery management has economy-wide impacts on prices and wages. Managers in developing countries thus should consider these linkages when implementing policies to conserve fish stocks.     

Social orders,and a <Emphasis Type="Italic">weak</Emphasis> form of the Hayek–Friedman Hypothesis

This paper contributes to a theoretical underpinning of the economic freedom–political freedom relationship. We use the theory of social orders (North et al. in Violence and social orders: a conceptual framework for understanding recorded human history, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2009) to look at the Hayek–Friedman Hypothesis (HFH), which leads us to propose a novel interpretation. The core insight of our weak interpretation of the hypothesis is that economic freedom is a necessary condition for maintaining political freedom in open access order countries (countries with high levels of both freedoms), i.e., once achieved, political freedom needs economic freedom to be stable; but the HFH is not relevant for limited access orders (rent-seeking-dominated orders). We find empirical support for the weak interpretation with canonical correlations and conditional logit regressions, using a panel database for 122 countries for the period 1980–2011.     

Financial and Corporate Sector Restructuring in South Korea: Accomplishments and Unfinished Agenda

Following the Asian financial crisis, South Korea has undertaken wide-ranging, economic structural reforms under IMF conditionality while receiving IMF assistance. This paper describes Korean accomplishments in restructuring the financial and corporate sectors, and also addresses the unfinished agendas. It suggests ongoing reforms in a knowledge-based economy, in which the financial sector serves as the "brain" of market economy by allocating scarce capital to the most profitable firms within South Korea. It also recommends that subsidiary companies of Korean chaebols become independent viable business units, and that new sources of growth be found by promoting Korean SMEs and venture businesses. JEL Classification Numbers: E44, F34, G18, G32, G34, L11, L22, O16, O53.     

Fiscal Policy and $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$ Emissions of New Passenger Cars in the EU

To what extent have national fiscal policies contributed to the decarbonisation of newly sold passenger cars? We construct a simple model that generates predictions regarding the effect of fiscal policies on average \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of new cars, and then test the model empirically. Our empirical strategy combines a diverse series of data. First, we use a large database of vehicle-specific taxes in 15 EU countries over 2001–2010 to construct a measure for the vehicle registration and annual road tax levels, and separately, for the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) sensitivity of these taxes. We find that for many countries the fiscal policies have become more sensitive to \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of new cars. We then use these constructed measures to estimate the effect of fiscal policies on the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emissions of the new car fleet. The increased \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\)-sensitivity of registration taxes have reduced the \(\hbox {CO}_{2}\) emission intensity of the average new car by 1.3 %, partly through an induced increase of the share of diesel-fuelled cars by 6.5 percentage points. Higher fuel taxes lead to the purchase of more fuel efficient cars, but higher diesel fuel taxes also decrease the share of (more fuel efficient) diesel cars; higher annual road taxes have no or an adverse effect.     

Federal homelessness policy: A robust political economy approach

In the wake of the financial crisis, the United States government introduced a new large-scale initiative to address homelessness. The policy mandate is marked by both an unprecedented increase in federal funding and a dramatic reallocation of resources toward Housing First, a service model emphasizing immediate housing subsidization. Although this service paradigm has received support from a sizeable literature, our knowledge of its success to date has been limited. This paper sheds light on the unobservable or unmeasured costs of this new centralized approach to ending homelessness. I argue that federal homelessness policy under the Housing First approach 1) generates resource misallocation, 2) exacerbates the Samaritan’s dilemma, and 3) invites rent seeking.     

Taxation and the sustainability of collusion: ad valorem versus specific taxes

Assuming constant marginal cost, it is shown that a switch from specific to ad valorem taxation that results in the same collusive price has no effect on the critical discount factor required to sustain collusion. This result is shown to hold for Cournot oligopoly when collusion is sustained with Nash-reversion strategies or optimal-punishment strategies. In a Cournot duopoly model with linear demand and quadratic costs, it is shown that the critical discount factor is lower with an ad valorem tax than with a specific tax that results in the same collusive price. However, in contrast to Colombo and Labrecciosa (J Public Econ 97:196–205, 2013) it is shown that the revenue is always higher with an ad valorem tax than with a specific tax.     

Human agency and convergence: Gaus’s Kantian Parliamentarian

Public reason is justified to the extent that it uses (only) arguments, assumptions, or goals that are allowable as “public” reasons. But this exclusion requires some prior agreement on domains, and a process that disallows new unacceptable reasons by unanimous consent. Surprisingly, this problem of reconciliation is nearly the same, mutatis mutandis, as that faced by micro-economists working on general equilibrium, where a conceit—tâtonnement, directed by an auctioneer—was proposed by Leon Walras. Gaus’s justification of public reason requires the “as if” solution of a Kantian Parliamentarian, who rules on whether a proposal is “in order.” Previous work on public reason, by Rousseau, Kant, and Rawls, have all reduced decision-making and the process of “reasoning” to choice by a unitary actor, thereby begging the questions of disagreement, social choice, and reconciliation. Gaus, to his credit, solves that problem, but at the price of requiring that the process “knows” information that is in fact indiscernible to any of the participants. In fact, given the dispersed and radical situatedness of human aims and information, it is difficult for individuals, much less groups, to determine when norms are publicly justified or not. More work is required to fully take on Hayek’s insight that no person, much less all people, can have sufficient reasons to endorse the relevant norm, rule or law.