Spillover Effects among European,the US and Moroccan Stock Markets before and after the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses return and volatility spillovers among stock markets in Morocco, the US, UK, France and Germany represented respectively by MASI, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX 30 indices, both before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. The daily frequency data cover the period from January 2nd, 2002 to June 30th, 2016. Using the Diebold and Yilmaz approach, the results show varying financial connectedness between the Moroccan and the above mentioned developed stock markets. In fact, the significant increase of spillover index during the post-financial crisis period demonstrates that the US and European stock markets were the most affected. On the other hand, despite a relative increase of spillover effects coming from the US and German equity markets, our results show decline in the total net spillovers experienced by the Moroccan market after the recent financial crisis. These findings may provide some useful information to support decision-making and trading strategies for international investors.     

Systemic risk spillovers and the determinants in the stock markets of the Belt and Road countries

We construct time-varying tail risk networks to investigate systemic risk spillovers in the Belt and Road (B&R) stock markets during 2008–2021. Network metrics clearly reflect aggregate risk level and individual risk accumulation for the B&R stock markets under extreme events (e.g., 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic). Tail-event driven network quantile regression analysis shows that network impacts of the B&R stock markets under different risk levels are asymmetric and regional heterogeneity. Panel analysis on determinants of systemic risk spillovers shows that cross-border investment and international trade are significant contagion channels while economic freedom is potential driver.     

Financial connectedness of BRICS and global sovereign bond markets

The paper examines the financial connectedness via return and volatility spillovers between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and three global bond market indices represented by the United States of America (USA), European Monetary Union (EMU) and Japan for the period 01 January 1997 to 27 July 2016 (weekly data). We find that Russia followed by South Africa is the net transmitter of shocks within BRICS, implying that the risk arising from these markets may have an adverse impact on others in BRICS. However, China and India exhibit weak connectedness, suggesting that these markets may be useful for hedging and diversification opportunities in BRICS. The networks of pairwise spillover results further confirm this. Among global indices, China appears as highly interconnected with the USA. USA is the strongest transmitter of shocks to BRICS bond indices. The panel data results further confirm the significant determinants of net directional spillover. Thus, we can conclude that BRICS is a heterogeneous asset class even in the case of the bond market. India and China are the markets to look for better risk management strategies.     

Volatility Spillovers and the Risk-Return Relation Between Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets in Brazil

We examine the evidence of mean and volatility spillovers between stock and foreign exchange markets in Brazil with multivariate GARCH models and nonlinear Granger causality tests. We also use a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model to assess the relationship between risk and return in these markets. The results indicate that the stock market leads the foreign exchange market in price formation and that nonlinear Granger causalities from the exchange market to the stock market do occur. Part of these nonlinear causalities are explained by volatility spillovers. We show that exchange rate volatility affects not only stock market volatility but also stock returns.     

Dependence dynamics of stock markets during COVID-19

Stock markets have exhibited increased returns connectedness during the COVID-19 period. We examine the returns dependence among 42 stock markets classified under various emerging and developed groupings. We apply several dependence measures to examine the returns connectedness among the markets. Our results show that stock markets from the G-7 and Emerging Frontier and Asian (EFA) region exhibit high connectedness with other international markets, while Middle East and North African (MENA) and Latin American (LA) stock markets offer high diversification opportunities through low returns connectedness. The returns coherence of Central and East European (CEE) and G-7 markets increase significantly during the COVID-19 period which supports the hypothesis of contagion. However, during the pandemic MENA stock markets (excluding Greece) and most EFA markets (excluding China, Singapore and Korea) remain less cointegrated with other international equity markets. Our results have implications for individual and institutional investors, fund managers and other financial market stakeholders.     

Extreme dependence and risk spillovers between oil and Islamic stock markets

This paper examines the downside and upside risk spillovers and dependence structure between five Islamic stock markets (the Islamic Market World index, Islamic indices of USA, UK, Japan and the Islamic Financials sector index) which are of paramount importance for faith-oriented investors and particpants in the oil market. The results underscore the presence of time-varying lower tail dependence between the oil and Islamic stock markets. Furthermore, we provide supportive evidence of asymmetric down- and up-side risk spillovers from oil to the Islamic stock markets and vice versa. Finally, these asymmetric risk spillovers have significantly increased after the global financial crisis.     

Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the DJIA index and futures markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is the most widely quoted stock index worldwide. This article examines the minute-by-minute price discovery process and volatility spillovers between the DJIA index and the index futures recently launched by the CBOT. The Hasbrouck (1995) cointegrating model suggests that most of the price discovery takes place at the futures market. However, by examining the volatility spillovers between the markets based on a bivariate EGARCH model, a significant bidirectional information flow is found. That is, innovations in one market can predict the future volatility in another market, but the futures market volatility-spillovers to the stock market more than vice versa. Both markets also exhibit asymmetric volatility effects, with bad news having a greater impact on volatility than good news. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 911–930, 1999     

The relationship between currency carry trades and U.S. stocks

The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September 2010. Carry trade and stock returns are highly correlated with no Granger‐causality in either direction. An EGARCH model shows that significant volatility spillovers flow from the stock market to the carry‐trade market, but not vice versa. The markets are more correlated in periods of high volatility. Volatilities in both markets also increase more with negative innovations than positive innovations. A sectoral analysis of the index suggests that volatilities of cyclical stocks have more impact than noncyclical stocks on carry trades.     

Half-day trading and spillovers

This paper investigates the linkage of returns and volatilities between the United States and Chinese stock markets from January 2010 to March 2020. We use the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and asymmetric Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (BEKK) GARCH models to calculate the time-varying correlations of these two markets and examine the return and volatility spillover effects between these two markets. The empirical results show that there are only unidirectional return spillovers from the U.S. stock market to the Chinese stock market. The U.S. stock market has a consistently positive spillover to China’s next day’s morning trading, but its impact on China’s next day’s afternoon trading appears to be insignificant. This finding implies that information in the U.S. stock market impacts the performance of the Chinese stock market differently in distinct semi-day trading. Moreover, with respect to the volatility, there are significant bidirectional spillover effects between these two markets.     

Time and frequency connectedness of uncertainties in cryptocurrency,stock, currency,energy, and precious metals markets

This paper examines the connectedness of uncertainty in cryptocurrency, stock, currency, and commodity markets. We use the novel news-based cryptocurrency uncertainty indices of Lucey et al. (2021) and global implied volatility indices as uncertainty proxies for stock, currency, energy, and precious metals markets. We analyze weekly data between January 2014 and May 2021, employing the time and frequency connectedness measures of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník and Křehlík (2018). Our results show a low degree of uncertainty connectedness between cryptocurrency and other markets. The results imply long-term diversification opportunities and highlight the distinct dynamics of the cryptocurrency markets.     

Asymmetric extreme risk spillovers between the Chinese stock market and index futures market: An MV-CAViaR based intraday CoVaR approach

This paper proposes a predictive CoVaR measure to analyze asynchronous risk spillovers between the Chinese stock and futures market. We jointly model the intraday CoVaR dynamics using an extended MV-CAViaR model. The results show the presence of asymmetric spillovers under different market states, different trading rules, and different confidence levels. Specifically, there exist significant downside spillovers and insignificant upside spillovers. Moreover, the futures (stock) market becomes dominant in risk transmission during bearish (bullish) market periods. Furthermore, high margin requirements would weaken the spillover effects of the futures market, but it would also strengthen the spillover effects of the stock market.     

Systemic risk in global volatility spillover networks: Evidence from option-implied volatility indices

With option-implied volatility indices, we identify networks of global volatility spillovers and examine time-varying systemic risk across global financial markets. The U.S. stock market is the center of the network and plays a dominant role in the spread of volatility spillover to other markets. The global systemic risks have intensified since the Federal Reserve exited from quantitative easing, hiked interest rate, and shrank its balance sheet. We further show that the U.S. monetary tightening is an important catalyst for the intensifying global systemic risk. Our findings highlight the pernicious effects of monetary tightening after an era of cheap money.     

Intertemporal volatility and price interactions between Australian and Japanese spot and futures stock index markets

Previous studies have examined causality within and between different spot and futures markets with a motivation to discover market comovements, price leadership effects, and, more recently, volatility spillovers across markets. However, the empirical framework within which this is accomplished tends not to analyze explicitly foreign spillover effects upon a spot–futures relationship, which may significantly alter the equilibrium between these markets. This will then have a direct impact upon the estimation of dynamic risk adjustments that occur from the interaction between these markets. This article develops a quadvariate simultaneous-equation EC-ARCH model with an emphasis on volatility spillovers as a better alternative methodology to evaluate these relationships from a different perspective. This model is applied to examine the interaction between the Australian and Japanese spot and futures stock index markets, which allows for an Australian or Japanese futures trader to analyze the impact of foreign cash and futures markets, as well as the local cash market, on the local futures market in a single coherent framework. This type of analysis is not possible using previous paradigms, because they allow the trader only to examine the impact of local cash and foreign futures markets in separate settings. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 523–540, 1999     

The Effect of 2008 Crisis on the Volatility Spillovers among Six Major Markets

The scope of this paper is to determine whether global stock markets function differently under conditions of economic crisis by measuring volatility spillovers between six major markets, namely the US, the UK, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and Greece. We examine the volatility spillover effects of the 2008 US financial crisis to these six major markets using daily stock returns from January 2003 to December 2014, before, during, and after the 2008 financial crisis. We combine the Diebold and Yilmaz methodology with the stochastic volatility model of Taylor implemented through the sequential Efficient Importance Sampling method of Richard and Zhang to obtain variance decompositions derived from an estimated vector autoregressive model. The empirical findings suggest that stock markets tend to show increased volatility spillovers during the crisis period, thus resulting in lesser diversification benefits for investors.     

Can Mergers to Monopoly,Price Fixing,and Market‐Division Agreements Raise Welfare?

Naked market division, price fixing agreements and mergers which result in dominant positions have long been opposed by the courts and the government because of the high likelihood that they will result in a reduction in output and an increase in price. We show that the opposite may be true if the market is characterized by marketing spillovers. When marketing investment is required to educate consumers about the general capabilities or qualities of a product, marketing efforts by one producer will benefit rival producers. A theoretical model of these types of markets shows that marketing spillovers can forestall entry altogether or force incumbent firms to engage in ‘limit marketing’ that leaves the market underserved from a welfare‐maximizing perspective. Under these circumstances, market output and social welfare are potentially raised not only through horizontal agreements among competitors, but also through cost‐raising strategies and commitments to predatory behavior by incumbent firms.     

Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from seven sub-Sahara African countries

The paper examines the long run and causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for seven countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, the study finds that the stock market development is cointegrated with economic growth in Egypt and South Africa. Moreover, this test suggests that stock market development has a significant positive long run impact on economic growth. Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM) further shows that stock market development Granger causes economic growth in Egypt and South Africa. However, Granger causality in the context of VAR shows evidence of bidirectional relationship between stock market development and economic growth for Cote D’Ivoire, Kenya, Morocco and Zimbabwe. In Nigeria, there is a weak evidence of growth-led finance using market size as indicator of stock market development. Based on these results, the paper argues that stock markets could help promote growth in Africa. However, to achieve this goal, African stock markets need to be further developed through appropriate regulatory and macroeconomic policies.     

Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness among China and emerging Asian Islamic equity indexes

We study the volatility spillover between China and Asian Islamic stock markets. We use a sample of six Islamic MSCI indices from the Asian region, namely China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea and Thailand obtained from MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International). In this paper we analyze the importance of considering spillover effects between emerging Asian Islamic indexes based on the Bivariate VARMA-BEKK-AGARCH model of McAleer et al. (2009), which includes spillover and asymmetric effects. We compute after the effectiveness of portfolio diversification based on the conditional volatility of returns series. Results show a significant positive and negative return spillover from China to selected Asian Islamic stock market and bidirectional volatility spillovers between China, Korea and Thailand Islamic market showing evidence of short-term predictability on Islamic Chinese stock market movements. However there is no short term volatility persistence in India, Indonesia and Malaysia. GARCH results show no persistence in volatility spillover effect in long term from Chinese to Indian, Indonesian and Korean Islamic stock market. Our findings are beneficial for international portfolio diversification for policy makers and investors since the results of portfolio management and hedging effectiveness ratio are different to previous studies.     

多元化速度与企业风险短期关联研究——基于中国制造业上市公司数据的研究

企业多元化是个持续过程,度量企业多元化还须使用动态维度,多元化速度可以作为度量企业多元化的动态指标。基于沪深两市制造业上市公司的数据资料,构建多元回归模型,考察多元化速度对企业市场风险、财务风险、经营风险以及总风险的影响,得出以下结论:短期内,较快的多元化速度能降低企业市场风险、财务风险和经营风险;当经济总体处于快速发展阶段,企业应重视多元化速度所产生的正面影响,不失时机加快多元化速度,促进企业成长。     

Quantile information share

This paper presents a new method to estimate Hasbrouck-type market information share in price discovery. The prevailing market information share is calculated on the basis of conditional mean. We propose a conditional quantile regression approach to obtain a new market information share measure, quantile information share, which varies across the combinations of different price quantiles. The method is illustrated with two data sets, one on the spot and futures markets in pricing S&P 500 equity index, and the other on price discovery for a cross-listed stock.     

基于 DCC-GARCH的中国大宗商品 金融化研究

本文选取2005年1月4日至2016年9月30日农产品类、金属类和工业品类等中国和国际大宗商品期货市场交易品种,以及国内外主要股票市场指数的日收益率,基于DCC--GARCH模型分析了期货市场和股票市场的波动性溢出关系和动态相依性。结果发现,股票市场对中国商品期货有波动率溢出效应,但是不同类型的大宗商品其波动率溢出效应有明显差异。这说明:中国大宗商品市场存在金融化现象,但是不同类型的大宗商品金融化的程度不同,和国际大宗商品期货市场相比,中国市场的金融化程度总体偏低。