锁定效应与中国代工产业升级——基于制造业分行业面板数据的经验研究

以代工模式嵌入全球价值链,是后进国家实现工业化的有效战略和重要途径,但可能因锁定效应而不利于经济可持续发展与产业升级。本文首先从投入、需求与功能三个维度将代工产业的锁定效应分解为要素锁定效应、市场锁定效应和价值链锁定效应,进而利用2001-2008年中国制造业分行业面板数据,实证研究了国际代工模式下不同要素密集型产业的锁定效应。结果显示:劳动密集型制造业表现出要素锁定效应和市场锁定效应,资本密集型、技术密集型制造业则兼具上述三种锁定效应;外资代工促成了劳动密集型制造业的锁定效应,全球价值链分工因素对资本密集型制造业具有"双刃剑"作用,对技术密集型制造业则具有显著的锁定效应;工资水平对劳动密集型制造业的锁定效应具有显著影响,资本密集型制造业的锁定效应与工资水平、规模经济和创新强度显著相关,技术密集型制造业的锁定效应则受到创新强度和外部制度因素的显著影响。本文结论意味着不同类型的产业升级应当采取差异化的政策措施。     

江苏制造业的发展规律、产业演进趋势及发展建议

改革开放以来,江苏制造业经历了"内资主导、数量和规模扩张(1978-1994年)"、"外资主导、效益提升(1995-2006)"、"内外资共同驱动、科学发展(2007年-今)"的三个发展阶段。从产业演进的过程来看,出现了"劳动密集型产业所占比例逐渐下降,资本密集型产业所占比例上涨缓慢,技术密集型产业增长最快"、"支柱产业布局不断优化,先进制造业迅速发展"、"行业集中度和先进制造业产业集聚的提升缓慢"、"苏南与苏中差距不断减少并趋于收敛,但苏南向苏北的梯度推移存在粘性效应"、"技术投入加速上升,但技术创新转化效率低位徘徊"、"资本、资源、环境等要素的制约作用急剧增强"等规律和趋势。为此,江苏制造业应坚持科学发展理念、"以新抢先、以特显优、以高制胜"推进国际制造业基地建设、优先支持发展装备制造业并完善绿色制造体系。     

中国与RCEP国家制造业产业内贸易新测度与影响因素研究——基于增加值贸易视角的分析

当前中国提速推进与RCEP成员国的经贸谈判,这是引领经济全球化和提振后疫情时代建设开放型世界经济的积极信号。基于OECD(2018TiVA)数据库,创新性的以增加值贸易视角比较测度分析了中国与RCEP国家制造业产业内贸易水平,实证检验了增加值贸易下中国与RCEP国家制造业产业内贸易发展的影响因素。研究结果表明:增加值贸易下中国与RCEP国家制造业静态产业内贸易主要在资本技术密集型和知识密集型部门;区域内制造业产业内贸易动态演变和参与国际化生产层次具有"劳动密集型-资本技术密集型-知识密集型"的阶梯状特征;FDI、人均GDP、工业化水平、开放经济距离和基础设施质量是影响增加值贸易下中国与RCEP国家制造业产业内贸易发展的主要因素,且存在显著空间差异和行业异质性。基于此,结合后疫情时代的全球经贸格局,从增加值贸易视角我国应积极采取促进中国与RCEP国家制造业产业内贸易高质量发展的相关政策。     

服务贸易、技术距离与中国制造业服务化——基于行业面板数据的实证研究

制造业服务化是世界各国经济增长和企业竞争力提升的重要引擎，服务贸易则是促进发展中国家制造业服务化的主要途径。文章从理论和实证两个方面研究了服务贸易对制造业投入服务化和产出服务化的作用机制，并着重剖析了技术距离对二者关系的影响。研究表明：整体上，深化服务贸易对我国制造业投入服务化和产出服务化均具有积极的推动作用，但技术距离会弱化服务贸易的正向影响；基于技术距离的门槛效应检验发现，当中外技术距离扩大至一定水平后，服务贸易对我国制造业投入服务化和产出服务化的挤出效应愈发明显；服务贸易对技术密集型制造行业投入服务化的促进作用更明显，但对非技术密集型制造行业产出服务化的推动作用远大于技术密集型制造行业。     

我国工业制成品出口结构变迁对经济增长的实证分析

资源、劳动、资本、技术是经济增长的主要源泉,本文通过对我国1980-2004年劳动资源密集型产品出口和资本技术密集型产品出口与国内生产总值关系的实证研究,在检验单位根、序列平稳和协整的基础上进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析。证实了我国劳动资源密集型产品出口和资本技术密集型产品出口对经济增长的贡献。     

贸易条件与制造业全要素生产率

基于1999—2018年中国制造业行业面板数据,考察贸易条件对全要素生产率的影响。研究发现,贸易条件与全要素生产率显著负相关。异质性分析表明：贸易条件对制造业全要素生产率的影响存在显著的行业异质性,并且贸易条件改善对劳动密集型行业综合技术效率增长有积极影响,对资本技术密集型行业综合技术效率增长具有显著的抑制效应;金融危机前贸易条件改善对综合技术效率增长有显著抑制作用,金融危机后贸易条件改善对综合技术效率增长有显著促进作用。作用机制检验结果显示,贸易条件对制造业全要素生产率的影响主要是通过科研投入强度路径实现的。     

中美服务贸易与制造业效率——基于行业面板数据的考察

中国从美国的服务进口(BOP)比美国在中国的FATS对制造业效率的促进效应要更为明显;特别地,服务进口(BOP)更能促进资本密集型和技术密集型制造业效率的提升,而美国在中国的FATS更能促进技术密集型和劳动密集型制造业效率的提升;中国从美国进口的教育服务、商业、专业与技术服务、港口服务提升了中国制造业的效率,而其中又以教育服务的促进效应最大,港口服务的促进效应次之(对技术密集型和资本密集型制造业效率而言),商业、专业与技术服务的促进效应最小(对资本密集型制造业效率而言);此外,中国从美国进口的版权和专利对中国资本密集型和劳动密集型制造业效率产生负面影响.     

出口市场份额、FDI流入与中国制造业出口技术复杂度

为了考察外部因素对中国制造业出口技术升级的影响,本文从双边贸易的视角构造"中国—贸易伙伴"双边出口技术复杂度指标,并将出口市场因素纳入考虑,分析中国在贸易伙伴的出口市场份额与贸易伙伴外商直接投资对中国制造业出口技术升级的作用。研究结果表明:中国与57个主要贸易伙伴的双边出口技术复杂度顺贸易伙伴出口技术复杂度梯度增长;贸易伙伴市场份额的提升和外商直接投资流入对中国制造业出口技术复杂度的总体作用为负,该结论存在出口市场与行业的异质性; OECD经济体和非OECD经济体出口市场份额的提升对劳动密集型行业出口技术复杂度提升产生了抑制作用;非OECD经济体出口市场份额的提升有利于中国资本技术密集型行业的技术升级; OECD经济体出口市场份额和外商直接投资流入对资源密集型行业出口技术复杂度提升产生了积极影响。     

中日工业制成品贸易比较优势分析

本文对中日制成品贸易结构、贸易竞争力以及制造业产业内贸易现状进行了实证分析。研究表明：我国对日出口虽仍以劳动密集型产品为主，但资本和技术密集型产品的出口已实现了大幅度的增长，并且资本和技术密集型制成品竞争力指数在不断提高。同时。中日制造业贸易仍以产业间贸易为主，但产业内贸易正在逐渐上升。文章最后重点提出了转变外贸增长方式，促进我国对日制成品贸易结构改善的对策：积极推进比较优势动态升级，培育产业竞争优势；发挥产业政策的导向作用，优化和调整产业结构；增强自主创新能力，提高产业竞争力。     

信息通信技术对服务业“成本病”的影响研究——基于OECD国家生产率的增长核算分析

本文采用增长核算方法对1980-2003年部分OECD国家的服务业和制造业劳动生产率增长进行了贡献率分析。研究结果表明,信息通信技术(ICT)资本加深对服务业劳动生产率增长的贡献率远高于对制造业的贡献率,服务业劳动生产率增长落后于制造业的主要根源在于全要素生产率。ICT不能完全根治"成本病",但可以在一定程度上缓解服务业"成本病"。     

日本对哈大齐地区产业转移现状及发展趋势

近年来日本国内产业海外转移趋势不断加强，从其目前对哈大齐地区产业转移投资情况来看，制造业转移投资较为集中，非制造业转移投资相对较少，因此，哈大齐地区要想整合传统产业，提升产业竞争力。还要加强对日本高技术产业转移投资的吸引力度，进而推动哈大齐地区整体产业结构的优化与升级。     

British Business History: A Review of the Periodical Literature for 1998

Japanese economic success has been built upon the establishment and development of key manufacturing sectors, and the perspectives of business history can especially reveal that complex interaction of companies, markets, business networks, and state which has over time created a globally competitive industrial system. Long-term economic growth was capped in the 1950s and 1960s by growth rates that were unprecedented in their scale and duration. Similarly, the process of industrial transformation accelerated in the years between 1918 and 1950, important developments finally coalescing during the post-war period into the so-termed ‘Japanese industrial system’. Debates over the timing of economic development in Japan are intertwined with debates on the contribution of a pre-industrial national culture to business success. The historical record suggests that the acquisition of organisational capabilities within Japanese manufacturers has been shaped by the timing of the country's industrialisation and by its consequent development needs. The nature of Japanese management and Japan's industrial system, although influenced by cultural attributes, was shaped by organisational and economic objectives attuned to the circumstances of the country's industrialisation, and competitive advantage followed from the unavoidably nationally specific process by which potential was ultimately matched by capability.     

Industry Structure as a Competitive Advantage: The History of Japan's Post-war Steel Industry

This article examines the role of the Japanese government in the development of Japan's post-war steel industry. It argues that the Japanese government's industrial policies facilitated the rapid growth and success of Japanese steel companies in the world market. During the early post-war years, the government instituted a set of comprehensive policies which constrained the supply of steel in Japan's market and contributed to the development of large-scale plants and the full exploitation of the economies of scale in steel manufacturing. The Japanese steel industry's sizable cost advantage, of course, derived from more than government policies alone. But, as this article will argue, through the Ministry of Trade and Industry, the Japanese government used its power to exploit the economics of capital-intensive industries and accelerate the formation of an efficient steel oligopoly in Japan.     

本币升值条件下中日两国对外直接投资比较研究 ——基于产业选择的视角

近年来人民币升值频繁,与20世纪70年代日元升值情况有相似之处。基于中日两国在本币升值背景下的对外直接投资状况,本文从对外直接投资规模及嬗变、区域分布特点与产业选择行为3方面比较分析了中日对外直接投资的异同,最后针对日本产业选择的经验与教训,提出了中国对外直接投资要统筹兼顾服务业与制造业、促进投资区域和产业多元化以及提升投资者应对海外投资风险能力的对策建议。     

The road from Nissan to Samsung: a historical overview of East Asian investment in a UK region

Japan's relationship with the North East of England is often charted from the 1984 investment by the car manufacturer, Nissan, in its Sunderland plant. The aftermath of that investment decision saw not only a wave of Japanese manufacturing investment descending upon the North East but also other investments from Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong following in its wake. This article attempts to situate the experience of Japanese investment in the North East in the wider context of the region's more long-term associations with Japan. It looks to the legacy of the past in the building of Japanese battleships on Tyneside and other episodes of technology transfer in the late nineteenth century. It juxtaposes the subsequent changes in the region's industrial base with the post-war history of Japanese investment in the UK. With the arrival of NSK, the Japanese ball-bearings manufacturer, in County Durham in 1974, a new relationship can be seen to have emerged along with a regional infrastructure which supported further East Asian investment at the height of the bubble economy. The spreading out of that investment, its social and cultural impact and the consequences of the bubble bursting are explored at a time when claims for the dawning of ‘the Pacific century’ have been seriously called into question.     

Transaction Structure in Japanese Small Business Sector

An attempt has been made to examine some aspects of transaction structure of the small business sector in Japanese manufacturing. It has been found that there are some interesting findings in the industrial organization of the sector (1) In the transactions of intermediate goods with manufacturing, small businesses have more frequent transactions with other small businesses than with large firms. On the other hand, large firms have more transactions with each other than with small businesses; (2) The transactions between SMEs and large firms, and between SMEs themselves vary from industry to industry, depending on production/demand structure of an industry and product structure of its SMEs sector; (3) In engineering, such as electrical machinery and transport equipment, the intra-industry transactions from small businesses to large firms are great, suggesting a larger extent of subcontracting relationships. Also, textiles, clothing, and printing and publishing also have higher subcontracting transactions.The relationships are different between the two groups.     

我国物流业节能降耗统计分析:现状与展望

当前,经济增长与自然资源短缺、能源耗竭、生态环境恶化的矛盾凸显,如何提升能源利用效率,缓解能源压力日益成为研究的焦点。物流业在加速我国经济增长、促进产业结构调整、降低制造业成本的同时,能源消费增长迅速。本文通过对我国物流业能源消费及其影响因素的关联分析,得出物流业能源效率提升的几点建议。     

数字经济驱动制造业转型升级的作用机理——基于产业链视角的分析

数字经济与实体经济的深度融合成为促进实体经济振兴与产业转型升级的新动能,其动力主要源于数字新技术作用下的产业链组织分工边界拓展、交易成本降低、价值分配转移、需求变化倒逼四个方面。随着数字化信息成为产业链上的“标准化”流通媒介,制造业产业链会发生解构与重构并逐步实现全面数字化转型。产业链上“消费商”与工业互联网两种新型主导力量的出现促使服务型制造、网络化协同制造等新型制造模式创新涌现,智能制造将成为主流制造模式的新兴代表。为了更好地发挥数字经济对制造业转型升级驱动作用,应加强制造业数字基础设施建设,强化产业链数据集成与共享,发挥核心企业转型引领作用,注重智能制造生态系统构建等。     

我国物流业节能降耗统计分析:现状与展望

当前,经济增长与自然资源短缺、能源耗竭、生态环境恶化的矛盾突显,如何提升能源利用效率、缓解能源压力日益成为研究的焦点。物流业在加速我国经济增长、促进产业结构调整、降低制造业成本的同时,能源消费增长迅速。本文通过对我国物流业能源消费及其影响因素的关联分析,得出物流业能源效率提升的几点建议。     

The Determinants of the Location of Foreign Direct Investment by Japanese Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

Japanese manufacturing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have actively undertaken Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Asia since the mid-1980s. FDI contributes to economic growth of the FDI recipient countries, as it brings in not only financial resources for investment but also technologies and managerial know-how, which are important factors for promoting economic growth. Recognizing these benefits of receiving FDI, policy makers in developing countries have formulated various strategies to attract FDI. This paper examines the factors in the host countries that would attract FDI by Japanese SMEs. Our results show the importance of both supply-side and demand-side factors in the recipient countries for attracting FDI by Japanese SMEs. Supply-side factors include abundance of low-wage labor, availability of well-developed infrastructure, and good governance of the host government, while an important demand-side factor is the presence of sizable local market. In addition, Japanese SMEs regard industrial agglomeration, which has a element of both supply and demand factors, as an important factors making FDI decision. Supply-side factors are found to be important for attracting Japanese FDI in developing countries, while demand-factors play a role in attracting Japanese FDI in developed countries. A comparison of the results for SMEs to those for large firms reveals that SMEs are more sensitive to the conditions in the host countries in making their FDI decision. In particular, SMEs regard the availability of low-wage labor, well-developed infrastructure, and industrial agglomeration as important elements much more than large firms. High sensitivity of SMEs to local economic conditions in their decision on FDI location may be explained by their limited availability of financial and human resources and high dependence on overseas production in their business. In light of these findings, we conclude that countries interested in hosting FDI have to provide a very attractive business environment.