The cost of capital- the practitioners view

The application of a SWARCH model to stock market returns allows one to endogenously determine the regime dependence of the stock market volatility. Comparison of the results from a sample of daily data from five major stock markets shows that the majority of the markets switch regimes simultaneously. This fact is used to investigate the relation between market volatility and the behaviour of the variance—;covariance matrix. It is found that the international variance—;covariance matrix is not stable and that changes in the matrix are dependent on the volatility regime. A high level of variance causes an increase in the average correlation coefficient. The co-movement of the markets is further described by a steady increase in the covariance over the whole sample period. It can be shown that both the time component and the regime dependence of the average correlation have separate and significant explanatory power.     

资金流动、国际金融整合与经济增长——基于新兴市场国家面板数据

本文尝试检验东欧、东亚和拉丁美洲三大主要新兴市场国家或地区的资金流动方向及其对经济增长的影响,以及近来众所关切的全球经常账户失衡问题。实证结果显示:东欧国家收入水平与金融深化程度仍然偏低,但随着发展程度提高,未来将由资金流入转为流出。东亚国家或地区的超额外汇储备、贸易顺差与资金流出,被指控为造成美国巨额经常账户赤字与全球经常账户失衡的主要原因之一,但若能够持续金融深化的努力,资金可能回流并使全球经常账户失衡现象得以缓解。至于拉丁美洲国家的宏观经济、金融和政策变量,对于资金流动方向并无决定性影响,但宏观经济政策仍是决定资金流入能否有助于经济增长的关键因素。     

News Releases, Market Integration, and Market Leadership

Using intraday data we examine the response of futures on the British Long Gilt (Gilt), the German Government Bond (Bund), the U.S. Treasury Bond (Bond), the Japanese Government Bond (JGB), and the Italian Government Bond (IGB) to the release of U.S. macroeconomic news. Bond, Gilt, and Bund futures respond strongly to the news releases. The response of JGB futures is less pronounced, and IGB futures display weak responses at best. The instruments take time to adjust to news in the announcements. Following the announcements, Bond futures exert a high degree of market leadership. Evidence of increasing market integration is also noted.     

基于VAR模型的我国主要金融市场间波动性的关系研究

本文运用VAR模型从投资收益波动性的角度分析了我国股票市场、国债市场、企业债市场、银行间拆借市场的相互关系,运用格兰杰因果检验和脉冲分解两种方法对模型进行分析,并与已有的研究结果进行对照,研究结果表明股票、国债、企业债市场之间存在较强的相互作用,银行间拆借市场与上述三个市场的关系并不十分紧密,只是会受到债券市场的微弱的影响.要规范和做大做强股票市场,大力发展国债和企业债市场,引进更多的市场参与者,完善市场的软硬件建设,加快银行利率市场化步伐.     

An investigation of the stability of returns in Western European equity markets

This paper investigates the temporal stability of various dimensions of the returns of 16 European stock markets that are relevant to an analysis of international portfolio diversification. The basic data consist of daily stock market price indices for these markets. This group of indices comprehends a wide range of stock markets differentiated by size, age and technological sophistication, but in each case located in Western Europe. Two main tests were conducted: (a) ANOVA to identify inter-temporal variability and inter-market variability over 24 three-month sub-periods from January 1989 to December 1994, and (b) cluster analysis to identify groups of markets that exhibit similar behaviour patterns. The findings suggest that, while the potential gains from an internationally diversified portfolio restricted to the equities of Western European markets appear to be substantial, the lack of inter-temporal stability in the composition of the optimal portfolio from one period to another makes these gains difficult to achieve in practice.     

Skewness and Kurtosis Implied by Option Prices: A Correction

Corrado and Su (1996) provide skewness and kurtosis adjustment terms for the Black‐Scholes model, using a Gram‐Charlier expansion of the normal density function. In this note we provide a correction to the expression for the skewness coefficient and illustrate the effect on call option prices of the error found.     

Differences in Performance of Independent and Finance-Affiliated Venture Capital Firms

We examine the differences in the investment behavior of independent and finance-affiliated venture capital firms (VCFs). We find that differences in internal management mechanisms and staff backgrounds lead to external performance differences. Using VC-backed companies listed in Singapore as our sample, we find significant differences between these two types of VCFs in industry preference, investment duration, VCF syndication, number of board seats, initial underpricing, and long-term market returns. Independent VCFs add more value to their portfolios. Thus, we conclude that the participation of independent VCFs is an important corporate-level factor for the success of the venture capital market.     

A Comparison of Seasonal Adjustment Methods When Forecasting Intraday Volatility

In this article we compare volatility forecasts over a thirty‐minute horizon for the spot exchange rates of the Deutsche mark and the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. Explicitly modeling the intraday seasonal pattern improves the out‐of‐sample forecasting performance. We find that a seasonal estimated from the log of squared returns improves with the use of simple squared returns, and that the flexible Fourier form (FFF) is an efficient way of determining the seasonal. The two‐step approach that first estimates the seasonal using the FFF and then the parameters of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model for the deseasonalized returns performs only marginally worse than the computationally expensive periodic GARCH model that includes the FFF.     

Is portfolio diversification possible in integrated markets? Evidence from South Eastern Europe

A remarkable process of financial integration has taken place throughout the world capital markets over the last decades. In line with this integration process, the effect of financial integration locally and/or globally has been one of the contemporary topics of interest to academics, practitioners as well as policy makers. In this study, we investigate the availability of portfolio diversification benefits after the initiation of the South Eastern Europe Link (the SEE Link) trading platform in 2016 as a connecting hub for stock markets in the South Eastern European region. Our empirical methodology is primarily based on various static and dynamic correlation (Dynamic Conditional Correlation-GARCH) and regression (Autoregressive Distributed Lag, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares, Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares, Markov Switching Regression Model and Kalman Filter Model) analyses. We employ our methods for a daily frequency stock exchange (namely, the Zagreb Stock Exchange and Bulgarian Stock Exchange) return data between January 4, 2005 and December 30, 2019. The findings reveal that the two stock exchanges have a significantly decreasing pattern of correlation and regression relationship over the sample period implying the existence of diversification opportunities in the SEE Link markets.     

The high returns to low volatility stocks are actually a premium on high quality firms

Recent empirical research shows that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks around the world. This study documents that the volatility effect is associated with the quality of the firm using a large sample of international stocks. First, adding a quality factor to the Fama–French model contributes to the explanation of the volatility effect. Furthermore, the negative volatility–return relation is shown to be stronger and significant only among high quality firms which are profitable and have stable cash flows. Second, a fundamental investment strategy that goes long high quality firms and short low quality firms performs like a volatility strategy and cannot be explained by common asset pricing models. However, a low–high volatility factor adds to the explanation of the return difference between high and low quality stocks as volatility and quality strategies have a common component.     

International tests of a five-factor asset pricing model

Average stock returns for North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific increase with the book-to-market ratio (B/M) and profitability and are negatively related to investment. For Japan, the relation between average returns and B/M is strong, but average returns show little relation to profitability or investment. A five-factor model that adds profitability and investment factors to the three-factor model of Fama and French (1993) largely absorbs the patterns in average returns. As in Fama and French, 2015, Fama and French, 2016, the model's prime problem is failure to capture fully the low average returns of small stocks whose returns behave like those of low profitability firms that invest aggressively.     

The effect of downside risk reduction on UK equity portfolios included with Managed Futures Funds

The concept of asymmetric risk estimation has become more widely applied in risk management in recent years with the increased use of Value-at-risk (VaR) methodologies. This paper uses the n-degree lower partial moment (LPM) models, of which VaR is a special case, to empirically analyse the effect of downside risk reduction on UK portfolio diversification and returns. Data on Managed Futures Funds are used to replicate the increasingly popular preference of investors for including hedge funds and fund-of-funds type investments in the UK equity portfolios. The result indicates, however that the potential benefits of fund diversification may deteriorate following reductions in downside risk tolerance levels. These results appear to reinforce the importance of risk (tolerance) perception, particularly downside risk, when making decisions to include Managed Futures Funds in UK equity portfolios as the empirical analysis suggests that this could negatively affect portfolio returns.     

国际金融危机对广西经济金融的影响分析

源自美国的次贷危机已经演变为波及全球的国际金融危机,国际金融危机对广西经济金融的影响不同程度的存在,进出口形势严峻,投资意愿不足,消费可持续性有待观察,工业和农业面临诸多压力,银行业、证券业和保险业的风险也不同程度地放大,国际金融危机对广西经济金融的影响不容忽视。     

Long-run performance of global versus domestic initial public offerings

This paper investigates the long-run performance of global IPOs as compared to purely domestic ones made by US industrial companies. We find that global IPOs not only underperform the market but also underperform their domestic counterparts in the three years after issuance. Moreover, global issues with a larger global tranche are more prone to long-run underperformance. The results are consistent with the window of opportunity hypothesis that investors are overly optimistic about the future prospects of firms engaging in global offerings, and underperformance occurs as unduly high expectations are corrected over time.