The cost of capital- the practitioners view

The application of a SWARCH model to stock market returns allows one to endogenously determine the regime dependence of the stock market volatility. Comparison of the results from a sample of daily data from five major stock markets shows that the majority of the markets switch regimes simultaneously. This fact is used to investigate the relation between market volatility and the behaviour of the variance—;covariance matrix. It is found that the international variance—;covariance matrix is not stable and that changes in the matrix are dependent on the volatility regime. A high level of variance causes an increase in the average correlation coefficient. The co-movement of the markets is further described by a steady increase in the covariance over the whole sample period. It can be shown that both the time component and the regime dependence of the average correlation have separate and significant explanatory power.     

An investigation of the stability of returns in Western European equity markets

This paper investigates the temporal stability of various dimensions of the returns of 16 European stock markets that are relevant to an analysis of international portfolio diversification. The basic data consist of daily stock market price indices for these markets. This group of indices comprehends a wide range of stock markets differentiated by size, age and technological sophistication, but in each case located in Western Europe. Two main tests were conducted: (a) ANOVA to identify inter-temporal variability and inter-market variability over 24 three-month sub-periods from January 1989 to December 1994, and (b) cluster analysis to identify groups of markets that exhibit similar behaviour patterns. The findings suggest that, while the potential gains from an internationally diversified portfolio restricted to the equities of Western European markets appear to be substantial, the lack of inter-temporal stability in the composition of the optimal portfolio from one period to another makes these gains difficult to achieve in practice.     

A Comparison of the Efficacy of Liquidity,Momentum, Size and Book‐to‐Market Value Factors in Equity Pricing on a Heterogeneous Sample: Evidence from Asia

This paper compares the size and book‐to‐market value factors of Fama and French (1993) alongside Momentum of Jagadeesh and Titman ( 1993 ) with two Liu ( 2006 ) liquidity factors formed from 1 year rebalancing and 1 month rebalancing respectively. A heterogeneous and comprehensive sample of the top blue chip stocks of all national Asian equity markets with further differentiation undertaken between sub samples formed for Japan only and Asia excluding Japan for period January 2000 to August 2014. Our empirical results suggest that multifactor time invariant pricing models based on augmented capital asset pricing model (CAPM) framework are ineffective in explaining the cross section of stock returns in the presence of significant inter and intra‐market segmentation. However an alternative model specification based on a time varying parameter specification and using same sets of factors yields significant enhancements in explaining cross section of stock returns across universe. We find that momentum factor largely lacks significance while a time varying two factor model, based on CAPM plus liquidity factor, is optimal. The liquidity factor being that of Liu (2006) and annually rebalanced. Our findings are important for investment managers seeking appropriate factors and modelling techniques to hedge against risks as well as firm's financial managers seeking to reduce costs of equity capital.     

Persistence characteristics of the Chinese stock markets

Using advanced signal processing, this paper identifies the lack of ergodicity, stationarity, independence and the degree of persistence of the Shanghai (SHI) stock market and Shenzhen A shares (SZI) and B shares (SZBI), before and after the various deregulations and reregulations. Their lack of stationarity and ergodicity are ascribed to (1) the initial interventions in these stock markets by the Chinese government by imposing various daily price change limits, and (2) the changing trading styles, after the Chinese government left these equity markets to develop by themselves. The SHI, SZI, and SZBI are moderately persistent with Hurst exponents slightly greater than the Fickian 0.5 of the Geometric Brownian Motion. These stock markets were considerably more persistent before the deregulations, but they now behave more like Geometric Brownian Motions, i.e., efficiently. Thus, the Chinese stock markets are gradually and properly being integrated into one Chinese stock market. Our results are consistent with similar empirical findings from Latin American, European, and other Asian emerging financial markets.     

The trading behavior of institutions and individuals in Chinese equity markets

This paper employs a unique data set to analyze the trading behavior of 4.74 million individual and institutional investors across Mainland China. Results show that groups of individual investors with varying trade values (as proxies for wealth levels) engage in different trading strategies. Chinese institutions are momentum investors, while less wealthy Chinese individual investors at large are contrarian investors. The results also indicate that a small group of wealthiest Chinese individuals tend to behave like institutions when they buy stocks, and behave like less wealthy individuals when they sell. Furthermore, only the trading activities of institutions and of wealthiest individuals can affect future stock volatility, but those of Chinese individual investors at large have no predictive power for future stock returns.     

Political crises and the stock market integration of emerging markets

This paper investigates the role of political crises in explaining the degree of stock market integration in emerging markets over the period 1991-2006. Using the International Crisis Behavior database, which contains detailed information on political crises around the world, and employing data on more than 15,500 firms, we assess whether political crises affect stock market integration in 19 emerging markets in South and East Asia, Latin America, and Central and Eastern Europe. We conclude that crises with certain characteristics generally reduce the level of stock market integration in these regions. In particular, the beginning of a political crisis, its severity, the involvement of the US in the conflict, and the number of parties involved in a crisis all have impacts on the level of stock market integration in these markets.     

Financial markets,financial dependence,and the allocation of capital

We explore one specific channel through which finance promotes growth: the allocation of capital. Using international industrial data, we find that countries with developed financial markets invest more in growing industries, and pull out more funds of declining ones. Most interestingly, this pattern is more eminent for those industries more dependent on external financing. Various robustness checks show that the results are not driven by reverse causality, omitted variables, specific countries or industries.     

On the sources of private information in FX markets

We investigate the source of information advantage in inter-dealer FX trading using data on trades and counter-party identities. In liquid dollar exchange rates, information is concentrated among dealers that trade most frequently and specialize their activity in a particular rate. In cross-rates, traders that engage in triangular arbitrage are best informed. Better-informed traders are also located on larger trading floors. In cross-rates, the ability to forecast flows explains all of the advantage of the triangular arbitrageurs. In liquid dollar rates, specialist traders can forecast both order-flow and the component of exchange rate changes that is uncorrelated with flow.     

Stock returns and volatility following the September 11 attacks: Evidence from 53 equity markets

September 11 attacks matter, and why not? Given that globalization has integrated financial markets, the magnitudes of the effect of the September 11 attacks on global markets are expected to be pervasive. We used data from 53 equity markets to investigate the short term impact of the September 11 attacks on markets' returns and volatility. Our empirical findings indicate that the impact of the attacks resulted in significant increases in volatility across regions and over the study period. However, stock returns experienced significant negative returns in the short-run but recovered quickly afterwards. Nevertheless, we find that the impact of the attacks on financial markets varied across regions. The implication here is that the less integrated regions (e.g., Middle East and North Africa) are with the international economy, the less exposed they are to shocks.     

Central bank intervention and the intraday process of price formation in the currency markets

We propose a novel theory of the impact of sterilized spot interventions on the microstructure of currency markets that focuses on their liquidity. We analyze the effectiveness of intervention operations in a model of sequential trading in which i) a rational Central Bank faces a trade-off between policy motives and wealth maximization; ii) currency dealers' sole objective is to provide immediacy at a cost while maintaining a driftless expected foreign currency position; and iii) adverse selection, inventory, signaling, and portfolio balance considerations are absent by assumption. In this setting, and consistent with available empirical evidence, we find that i) the mere likelihood of a future intervention—even if expected, non-secret, and uninformative—is sufficient to generate endogenous effects on exchange rate levels, to increase exchange rate volatility, and to impact bid-ask spreads; and ii) these effects are exacerbated by the intensity of dealership competition, the extent of the Central Bank's policy trade-off, and the credibility of its threat of future actions.     

Stock market volatility and the crash of 1987: evidence from six emerging markets

This paper studies volatility, risk premia and the persistence of volatility in six emerging stock markets before and after the 1987 stock market crash. The empirical investigation is conducted by means of the GARCH in the mean model (GARCH-M) and monthly data from Argentina, Greece, India, Mexico, Thailand, and Zimbabwe between January of 1976 and August of 1994. Results indicate changes in the ARCH parameter, risk premia and persistence of volatility before and after the 1987 crash. But these noted changes are not uniform and depend upon the individual markets. Factors other than the 1987 crash may also be responsible for the changes.     

Contagion risk in the Australian banking and property sectors

The Australian banking system emerged from the global crisis virtually unhurt, with most banks still profitable, adequately capitalized, and with AA credit ratings. Are there any risks or vulnerabilities in this success story? This paper analyzes Australia’s systemic banking risk and attempts to determine if this risk increased with the recent global crisis and whether this risk is related to the downturn experienced in the real estate market. We use extreme value theory to measure banks’ and property firms’ univariate Value at Risk, as well as multivariate intra-sector and inter-sector contagion risks. Of the 13 sectors analyzed, we find that the property sector exhibits the highest level of extremal dependence with the banking sector. The credit crisis significantly increased the probability of a bank or property firm crashing. Moreover, contagion risks significantly increased not only within the banking and property sectors, but also between those sectors.     

A tale of two prices: Liquidity and asset prices in multiple markets

This paper investigates the liquidity effect in asset pricing by studying the liquidity–premium relationship of an American depositary receipt (ADR) and its underlying share. Using the [Amihud, Yakov, 2002. Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time series effects. Journal of Financial Markets 5, 31–56] measure, the turnover ratio and trading infrequency as proxies for liquidity, we show that a higher ADR premium is associated with higher ADR liquidity and lower home share liquidity, in terms of changes in these variables. We find that the liquidity effects remain strong after we control for firm size and a number of country characteristics, such as the expected change in the foreign exchange rate, the stock market performance, as well as several variables measuring the openness and transparency of the home market.     

Dividend taxes and investment efficiency: Evidence from the 2003 U.S. personal taxation reform

We examine the effect of a large dividend tax cut on corporate investment efficiency by exploiting the 2003 personal taxation reform in the U.S. as a quasi-natural experiment. Using a difference-in-differences approach based on the probability that a firm’s marginal investor was an individual investor, we show that the 2003 dividend tax cut significantly improved the investment efficiency of U.S. listed firms. However, we find no evidence that the dividend tax cut increased the level of investment of U.S. listed firms. Further, we show that the tax cut increased investment efficiency by mitigating agency problems associated with the excessive free cash flows of overinvesting firms and by relaxing the financial constraints of underinvesting firms.     

Characteristics determining the efficiency of foreign banks in Australia

The factors determining foreign bank efficiency are investigated using a three stage research method. It is found that host market incumbency reduces efficiency of foreign banks in Australia, resulting in over use of inputs. Factors underlying the limited global advantage hypothesis of Berger et al. [Berger, Allen N., DeYoung, Robert, Genay, Hesna, Udell, Gregory F., 2000. Globalisation of financial institutions: Evidence from cross-border banking performance. Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Service 3, 23–120] are identified, in that nationality specific factors represented by dummy variables are not significant once other relevant effects are controlled for. Parent profitability is not found to result in increased host nation efficiency, while parent credit rating effects are mixed. Some evidence is presented that banks from more financially sophisticated nations are more efficient. The implications of these results are explored from the perspectives of bank management and bank regulators.     

The war on terror and its impact on the long-term volatility of financial markets

In this article, we analyze how the U.S.' declaration of the war on terror and the subsequent invasion of Iraq has impacted long-term volatility of stock markets around the world. In doing so, we utilize two statistical techniques: wavelet-based variance analysis and a semi-parametric fractional autoregressive (SEMIFARIMA) model. Our sample comprises stock and commodity indices worldwide for the sample period January 2000-June 2006. Specifically, we consider four geographic regions: the Americas, Africa/Middle East, Europe, and Asia/Pacific. We conclude that political instability in the Middle East had its greatest impact on the volatility of financial markets around the beginning of the Iraq war, and it mostly hit developed markets (e.g., United States, United Kingdom, and Japan). Thereafter, for most sampled indices, volatility has exhibited a decreasing trend to reach eventually levels even lower than that observed at the beginning of our sample. An exception is Egypt's CMA and the Dow Jones AIG all commodities. We think that the latest political conflicts in the Middle East and their impact on the price of oil may be the most likely driving force of such volatility in those two indices. Specifically, among Egypt's main export products are petroleum and petroleum products.     

Hurst exponent behavior and assessment of the MENA stock markets efficiency

In this paper, we test the evolving efficiency of MENA stock markets. Our empirical approach is founded on the behavior of the Hurst exponent over time. We computed the Hurst exponent using a rolling sample with a time window of 4 years. The empirical investigation has been conducted on the major Middle East and North African stock markets. The sample data covers in daily frequency the period (January 1997 to December 2007). Our empirical results show that all MENA stock returns exhibit long-range memory and certain markets are becoming more efficient. Ranking MENA stock markets by efficiency with our measures of long-range dependence have shown that Israel's, Turkey's and Egypt's markets are the less inefficient markets in this region. Furthermore, we have founded evidence of statistically significant rank correlation between the measure of long-range dependence and average trading costs, market capitalization and anti-self-dealing index, which suggests that these variables play a role in explaining these differences in the stage of inefficiency.     

Firm-specific information and the efficiency of investment

In the three-year period following stock market liberalizations, the growth rate of the typical firm's capital stock exceeds its pre-liberalization mean by an average of 4.1 percentage points. Cross-sectional changes in investment are significantly correlated with the signals about fundamentals embedded in the stock price changes that occur upon liberalization. Panel-data estimations show that a 10-percentage point increase in a firm's expected future sales growth predicts a 2.9- to 3.5-percentage point increase in the growth rate of its capital stock. Country-specific changes in the cost of capital drive changes in investment but firm-specific changes in the cost of capital do not.     

Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe

This paper proposes an ideal specification for studying joint dynamics of emerging stock and foreign exchange markets, and applies it on European emerging markets where this interaction is of particular significance due to large external deficits. Results show that global developed and emerging stock market returns account for a large proportion of the (permanent) comovement between the stock index and currency value. The residual interaction after controlling for global indexes is small. The sign of the currency-stock market relationship is driven by dependence on foreign capital (predominantly positive for countries which are net receivers of foreign portfolio capital) and depth of the local stock market. Bank of Russia's intensive involvement in the currency market delays Ruble's response to global information. Emerging European currencies predict reversals in global equity indexes several months ahead.     

Explaining underpricing of IPOs in frontier markets: Evidence from the Nigeria Stock Exchange

The paper provides empirical analyses of IPO underpricing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, from the period 1990 to 2006. The results indicate an average abnormal initial day returns of 43.1%. There is evidence of long-run underperformance of 0.6%. Results from our regression model explaining initial abnormal returns for the IPOs of Nigeria show that size of firm and audit quality are important variables affecting underpricing. The results also show the presence of a non-linear relationship between the offer price and underpricing.