房价上涨引发制造业上市公司投资不动产行为的研究

近十年来房价的快速上涨,引发了企业不动产投资行为。我国作为制造业大国,其投资行为的变化必然会引起国家经济的变化。本文是在中国房价上涨的环境下,以2008-2013年我国制造业上市公司为研究样本,研究了制造业投资不动产行为对投资收益带来的影响。研究结果表明,制造业上市公司的投资不动产行为能够提升制造业整体的投资收益。最后,通过回归分析的结果,对我国制造业上市公司不动产投资行为提出一些建议。     

Bubbles and Crises: The Role of House Prices and Credit

This paper utilizes quarterly panel data for 20 OECD countries over the period 1975:Q1–2014:Q2 to explore the importance of house prices and credit in affecting the likelihood of a financial crisis. Estimating a set of multivariate logit models, we find that booms in credit to both households and non‐financial enterprises are important to account for when evaluating the stability of the financial system. In addition, we find that global housing market developments have predictive power for domestic financial stability. Finally, econometric measures of bubble‐like behavior in housing and credit markets enter with positive and highly significant coefficients. Specifically, we find that the probability of a crisis increases markedly when bubble‐like behavior in house prices coincides with high household leverage. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论城市化与城市高房价

城市化是现代化的标志,是社会发展的历史过程,是当前及今后中国经济的主要增长点和中国经济的主要推动力,城市化对中国社会的进步意义重大。城市化的意义在于转变我国二元经济结构,促进城乡一体化发展。因此,城市化将促使大量农村剩余劳动力自由迁移进入城镇,城市住房的需求也因此迅速膨胀,然而供给却有限,在这两者的共同作用下,造成了城市高企的房价。而城市高企的房价终将影响城市化的进程。     

城市房屋征收中公共权力的配置与控制——以权力为视角评《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》

《国有土地上房屋征收与补偿条例》（以下简称《征收条例》）历经两次公开征求意见在社会公众翘首盼望中得以颁行,在我国法治建设和私权保护方面具有里程碑意义。与《城市房屋拆迁管理条例》（以下简称《拆迁条例》）相比,《征收条例》对城市房屋征收中公共权力的配置模式进行了全面调整,以征收权的行使为中心重新构建了一套权力分立、制约和控...     

房价结构调整与经济结构转型

中国住宅房地产价格明显偏离正常值。对房价的分析表明,房价结构构成中的33.86%流向了地方政府。经过房价结构这一隐秘机制的运行,本来属于居民消费领域的购房资金转变为政府投资资本,导致经济结构中投资与消费之间的比例失衡。这与中国加快经济结构调整,增加消费在促进经济增长中的比重的诉求相悖。为应对上述情况,加快优化房价结构是促进经济结构转型的有力举措。     

Stock Prices and the Real Economy: Power Law versus Exponential Distributions

This paper explores the relationship between the stock prices and the real economy. The standard approach – the so called consumption-based asset pricing model – attempts to explain it based on the assumption of the representative agent. In this paper, we argue that the representative agent assumption is fundamentally flawed. Drawing on the recent advancement of “econophysics” on financial markets See Mantegna and Stanley (An Introduction to econophysics: correlations and complexity in finance, 2000) for the introduction to econophysics, we argue that in contrast to the neoclassical view, there is in fact a wedge between financial markets, the stock prices in particular, and the real economy.     

2012年陕西省房地产价格分析

2012年陕西省房地产价格出现先抑后扬、平稳中温和上涨的整体运行态势。政府的宏观调控政策、房地产供给加大以及建造成本的提高等是影响房地产价格主要原因。预计2013年陕西省房地产价格变化的总体趋势将稳中有升。为稳定陕西省房地产市场,文章提出相应的对策建议,如政府应"微调"定向宽松刺激刚需与坚持房地产调控不动摇的"双重标准"同时执行;加强保障性安居工程建设等。     

Using Compulsory Mobility to Identify School Quality and Peer Effects

Education production functions that feature school and student fixed effects are identified using students' school mobility. However, student mobility is driven by factors like parents' labour market shocks and divorce. Movers experience large achievement drops, are more often minority and free meal students, and sort endogenously into peer groups and school types. We exploit an English institutional feature whereby some students must change schools between grades 2 and 3. We find no evidence of endogenous sorting of such compulsory movers across peer groups or school types. Non‐compulsory movers bias school quality estimates downward by as much as 20% of a SD.     

Prices Revisited: Their Effects on Industrial Structure

In January 1986, Spain became a member of the European Economic Community (now the European Union). This had two major effects on the Spanish economy: first, the introduction of a new tax, i. e. value-added tax; second, the variation of foreign trade taxes. The new situation produced considerable changes throughout the Spanish economy, but the main effect was on the country's industrial structure. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to verify how Spain's industrial production system was affected by these two facts, in view of price variations induced by the circumstances mentioned. We present the analysis at the regional level.     

上海住宅价格的解释——基于自回归均值回复模型的分析

使用1998年1月至2013年7月间月度上海住宅价格指数,采用自回归均值回复模型（ARMR）,尝试对上海住宅价格进行解释。模型效果测试表明模型与实际住宅价格指数之间匹配良好。上海房价均衡月度增长率为0．77％;自回归系数显示43％的前两个月增长率将持续到当月;均值回复系数表明如果上月房价高出（低于）均衡水平1个百分点,下月房价增长率将下降（增加）大约0．022个百分点。     

百姓心理预期对房价的影响

首先简单分析了影响房价的因素;接着主要通过供给和需求方面、正常的心理预期和非正常的心理预期两个方面,详细分析论证了心理预期是如何对房价产生影响的;最后为了使宏观政策很好的发挥效用,对正确的引导百姓的心理预期,提出了几条建议。     

财政货币政策、房价波动与宏观杠杆——基于信心传导机制的分析

利用市场主体信心的微观调查数据,借助仿真情景模拟下的反事实实验方法对信心能否在财政政策和货币政策调控杠杆与房价的过程中发挥作用进行实证分析,而后利用TVP-VAR模型对其内在机制展开深入探讨.研究表明,当信心被虚拟冲击抵消后,政策效果与基准结果呈现明显分化.即信心能够显著影响财政货币政策对杠杆与房价的作用效果,且经进一...     

Exchange Rates and Prices: Sources of Sterling Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations 1973–94

We attempt to identify the sources of UK exchange rate and relative consumer price fluctuations by applying the Clarida and Gali (1994) extension of the Blanchard and Quah (1989) structural VAR method to UK data. We (r)nd that IS shocks underlay the majority of the variance of sterling real and nominal exchange rates. Aggregate supply (AS) shocks were the second most important source of such variations, while LM shocks played an extremely limited role. In contrast, the variance of UK relative consumer prices primarily reflected LM shocks.     

全装修住宅质量缺陷分析及质量控制研讨

全装修住宅是消费者的需要,随着住宅全装修产品越来越多,在业主接受房屋时产生的质量投诉也越来越多。为减少装修工程中的质量缺陷,本文笔者对某项目已竣工交付的191套全装修住宅产品质量缺陷进行了分析,并就其质量控制进行总结,供读者参考。     

基于WebGIS的基准房价信息发布系统设计

基准房价是指以宗地为单位、同种用地类型的房地产单位面积的市场特征价格,构建基准房价的目的在于全面、及时、定量、准确地披露房地产价格体系。基准房价的研究可以为政府制定政策性住房售价、租金标准、征地拆迁补偿标准、房地产税费征收等提供参考依据,同时也可以为普通民众的房地产消费提供价格指导。鉴于基准房价研究的重要意义,在总结国内外基准房价概念、内涵、特点及其信息发布相关理论和技术现状的基础上,设计实现了一个基于WebGIS技术基准房价信息发布系统,经过试运行,用户可以通过该系统快速准确地查询研究区域内的基准房价及其相对应的空间信息。     

Quality Diversity and Prices in Markets for Experience Goods

We analyze vertical product differentiation in a model where a good’s quality is unobservable to customers before purchase, a continuum of quality levels is technologically feasible, and minimum quality is supplied by a competitive fringe of firms. After purchase the true quality of the good is revealed. To provide firms with incentives to actually deliver promised quality, prices must exceed unit variable costs. We show that for a large class of customer preferences there is “quality polarization,” that is, only minimum and maximum feasible quality are available in the market. For the case without quality polarization we derive sufficient conditions for the incentive constraints to completely determine equilibrium prices, regardless of demand, for all intermediate quality levels.     

货币政策和居民收入对房价影响的实证分析

近年来,房地产价格持续快速增长,影响房价的因素有很多,文章以辽宁省为例,建立贷款利率、货币供应量、城镇居民可支配收入和房屋销售价格的VAR模型,进行实证研究。利用EVIEWS7.0软件对模型进行脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析,得出贷款利率、货币供应量和居民可支配收入均对房价产生正向影响,并且居民可支配收入的贡献度最强,五年以上贷款利率贡献度最弱。