具有缺陷产品的损失规避零售商的订货策略研究

文章研究了在不确定需求环境下具有缺陷产品的损失规避零售商的订货策略问题.基于展望理论,建立了损失规避零售商订购含缺陷产品时的期望效用模型,给出了损失规避零售商最优订货量的计算公式.通过理论分析,探讨了损失规避程度对零售商订购含缺陷产品的最优策略的影响,并结合数值算例,研究了产品缺陷率与损失规避程度对零售商最优订货量以及期望效用的影响.     

延期支付下考虑时变需求的最优订货策略研究

本研究为了零售商确定其在一个有限的时间范围内的最优补货数量和补给计划,而提出了一个经济订货批量模型。零售商的需求率是与时间有关的,当零售商的订货量超过给定的预先规定的数量的时候,供应商对零售商提供交易信用。为了使得零售商的利润最大化,当需求率是一个广义函数时,可以建立一个数学模型,并采用与订单数量有关的的交易信用,通过分析零售商的利润函数,我们计算出一些有用的结果来确定最优解决方案。最后假设需求为函数方程时对模型进行数值分析,获得零售商最优利润下的最优订货量和订货周期。     

有确定保质期物品的扩展EOQ模型研究

研究了有确定保质期物品,零售商应如何制定最优订货策略的问题。以经济订货批量（EOQ）模型为基础,构建了有确定保质期物品在保质期内需求不变,保存期内需求线性时变的需求函数,得到在不允许缺货情况下,订货周期在三种情形下的费用函数解析式,通过分析区间内函数的最优性,求得最优订货周期和最优订货量,并得到单位物品变质损失费对总的平均费用毫无作用的结论。最后通过数值算例验证了模型的有效性,并分析了相关参数的灵敏度。     

允许缺货条件下时滞变质物品库存控制策略

研究了时滞变质物品在允许缺货情况下,零售商应如何制定最优订货策略的问题。以允许缺货,备货时间很短的经典库存模型为基础,构建了时滞变质物品在非变质期内需求不变,变质期内需求线性时变的需求函数,得到在允许缺货且短缺量部分拖后情况下．缺货时刻和订货周期在三种情形下的费用函数解析式,通过二元函数求极值方法,求得最优订货周期和最优订货量。最后给出数值算例对模型进行阐释。     

短生命周期产品成熟期订货策略

成熟期的短生命周期产品需求量大,相似产品之间的竞争激烈,此时产品一旦出现缺货,市场份额就会被相似产品替代。针对成熟期产品的特点,构建供应商-制造商-零售商的订货策略。采用改进的单周期随机存储模型确定零售商的最优订货量,在整个成熟期内不允许出现缺货现象,为保证产品能够及时供应,采用考虑风险因素的Shapley值对供应链上的节点企业进行利益分配。算例分析表明,考虑利益分配的供应商-制造商-零售商订货模型提高了供应链的整体收益。     

生产商回购合同与需求不确定

生产商回购合同已经被广泛看成一种渠道间成员共担风险的一种方式。在生产商回购合同中,生产商决定最优的批发价格ω和回购价格s。在给定ω,s的条件下,零售商决定向生产商最优的订货量Q,本文通过对生产商回购合同的分析,从而得出零售商的最优订货量以及生产商所采取的最优策略。同时给出了生产商使用回购合同的的条件以及分析了市场需求不确定对生产商和零售商的影响。     

不对称风险规避信息下的供应链回购契约研究

分析了回购契约下,零售商风险规避程度对零售商订货量以及供应链上成员利润的影响,考虑了在风险规避信息在对称与不对称情况下,风险规避程度对供应链上成员利润的影响,以及风险规避度信息对生产商的价值。结论表明,供应链上成员利润为风险规避程度的减函数,信息对称情况下供应链上成员利润要优于非对称信息情况下。     

零售商订货提前期不为零时确定需求下VMI-TPL供应链的库存策略研究

供应链环境下库存管理策略已经有了很多的研究,为了使库存策略更加完善贴近实际,本文在零售商的需求确定且订货提前期为零的VMI-TPL供应链基础上研究了零售商的订货提前期不为零的相应的情况,通过建立相关的数学模型及求解得到了最优的生产策略和库存控制策略,同时也研究了在零售商订货提前期不为零时未引入TPL情况下的相应的库存策略,最后通过具体的实例将两者进行了比较得出,在零售商订货提前期不为零的情况下引入TPL仍然比未引入TPL要节省成本,证明了结论。     

基于报童模型的跨境电商订货策略研究

近年来,网购和手机支付给人们带来了极大的便利,这也促进了电子商务的快速发展,国内电商的成长速度之快吸引了大量国外企业进入中国市场。本文以报童模型为基础,研究国外零售商在跨境电商背景下获得最优的订货策略和最大利润的问题,建立了一种集货直邮模型并给出了模型结构图。而考虑消费者心理和客户行为,研究表明,在提供给消费者运费险之后,零售商的最优订货量和最大利润发生了变化。零售商提供运费险后能提高销售量,进而达到利润和最优订货量的双重提高。     

基于零售商(Q,R)补货的双渠道供应链库存策略

随着电子商务的出现和第三方面物流的快速发展,越来越多的品牌供应商开始借助于网络建立直销渠道,单一产品已同时具备电子销售和传统零售双渠道供应链系统,顾客可以任意选择自己所偏好的购物渠道。一旦所偏好的产品购物渠道缺货,一定比例的顾客就会转向另一渠道选购产品。本文在假定供应商采用一对一的策略,零售商采用(Q,R)策略补充货源的情况,针对供应商的最优库存水平以及零售商的最优订货点水平和最佳订货量进行研究。利用马尔可夫过程建立双渠道供应链库存模型,得出结论:供应商存在基准库存水平,零售商存在最优订货点和最佳订货量使供应链的收益达到最大。MATLAB数值仿真结果表明了结论的有效性。     

Utility Theory and reciprocal pairwise comparisons: The Eigenvector Method

The criticisms of Utility Theory focus on either its axioms or the construction of utility functions. Here we present a method which avoids the problems of uniqueness encountered in the construction of utility functions when using either the certainty equivalence method or the probability equivalence method. The method is based on the construction of ratio scale value functions from reciprocal pairwise comparisons and Saaty's Eigenvector Method. We show that under the assumption of cardinal consistency utility functions are a particular case of these ratio scales. Reciprocal pairwise comparisons allow decision makers to relax the transitivity assumption and help to derive a unique scaling of preferences.     

On the nature of certainty equivalent functionals

We explore connections between the certainty equivalent return (CER) functional and the underlying utility function. Curvature properties of the functional depend upon how utility function attributes relate to hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) type utility functions. If the CER functional is concave, i.e., if risk tolerance is concave in wealth, then preferences are standard. The CER functional is linear in lotteries if utility is HARA and lottery payoffs are on a line in state space. Implications for the optimality of portfolio diversification are given. When utility is concave and non-increasing relative risk averse, then the CER functional is superadditive in lotteries. Depending upon the nature of association among lottery payoffs, CERs for constant absolute risk averse utility functions may be subadditive or superadditive in lotteries. Our approach lends itself to straightforward experiments to elicit higher order attributes on risk preferences.     

On the nature of certainty equivalent functionals

We explore connections between the certainty equivalent return (CER) functional and the underlying utility function. Curvature properties of the functional depend upon how utility function attributes relate to hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) type utility functions. If the CER functional is concave, i.e., if risk tolerance is concave in wealth, then preferences are standard. The CER functional is linear in lotteries if utility is HARA and lottery payoffs are on a line in state space. Implications for the optimality of portfolio diversification are given. When utility is concave and non-increasing relative risk averse, then the CER functional is superadditive in lotteries. Depending upon the nature of association among lottery payoffs, CERs for constant absolute risk averse utility functions may be subadditive or superadditive in lotteries. Our approach lends itself to straightforward experiments to elicit higher order attributes on risk preferences.     

Nonrecursive separation of risk and time preferences

Recursive utility disentangles preferences with respect to time and risk by recursively building up a value function of local increments. This involves certainty equivalents of indirect utility. Instead we disentangle preferences with respect to time and risk by building up a value function as a non-linear aggregation of certainty equivalents of direct utility of consumption. This entails time-consistency issues which are dealt with by looking for an equilibrium control and an equilibrium value function rather than a classical optimal control and a classical optimal value function. We characterize the solution in a general diffusive incomplete market model and find that, in certain special cases of utmost interest, the characterization coincides with what would arise from a recursive utility approach. But also importantly, in other cases, it does not: The two approaches are fundamentally different but match, exclusively but importantly, in the mathematically special case of homogeneity of the value function.     

论企业风险对冲与管理者激励

本文根据委托代理理论,利用风险管理决策的效用原则,分析企业管理者不同薪酬制度下的风险偏好和风险管理决策；进一步说明股东可以通过设计不同的管理者薪酬计划,校正管理者在风险管理决策中的利益动机,进而使管理者制定的风险管理决策符合股东价值最大化目标。     

How risky is a random process?

The riskiness of random processes is compared by (a) employing a decision theoretic equivalence between processes and lotteries on path-spaces to identify the riskiness of the former with that of the latter, and (b) using the theory of comparative riskiness of lotteries over vector spaces to compare the riskiness of lotteries on a given path-space. We derive the equivalence used in step (a) and contribute a new criterion to the theory applied in step (b). The validity of the new criterion, which applies second order stochastic dominance to utility distributions, is established by showing its equivalence to the benchmark decision theoretic criterion when comparing the riskiness of lotteries over any vector space. We demonstrate the theory’s tractability via diverse economic applications.     

The ordinal Nash social welfare function

A social welfare function entitled ‘ordinal Nash’ is proposed. It is based on risk preferences and assumes a common, worst social state (origin) for all individuals. The crucial axiom in the characterization of the function is a weak version of independence of irrelevant alternatives. This axiom considers relative risk positions with respect to the origin. Thus, the resulting social preference takes into account non-expected utility risk preference intensity by directly comparing certainty equivalent probabilities. The function provides an interpretation of the Nash-utility-product preference aggregation rule. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the function to produce complete and transitive binary relations are characterized.     

Cardinal versus ordinal criteria in choice under risk with disconnected utility ranges

This paper provides a formal justification for the existence of subjective random components intrinsic to the outcome evaluation process of decision makers and explicitly assumed in the stochastic choice literature. We introduce the concepts of admissible error function and generalized certainty equivalent, which allow us to analyze two different criteria, a cardinal and an ordinal one, when defining suitable approximations to expected utility values. Contrary to the standard literature requirements for irrational preferences, adjustment errors arise in a natural way within our setting, their existence following directly from the disconnectedness of the range of the utility functions. Conditions for the existence of minimal errors are also studied. Our results imply that neither the cardinal nor the ordinal criterion do necessarily provide the same evaluation for two or more different prospects with the same expected utility value. As a consequence, a rational decision maker may define two different generalized certainty equivalents when presented with the same prospect in two different occasions.     

效用理论在飞行安全风险评估中的应用

为科学划分飞行安全风险等级,将效用理论引入飞行安全风险领域,利用效用函数,建立了飞行安全风险评估模型。在分析飞行安全风险的基础上,通过定义事故或危险事件损失效应,选取合适的效用函数进行飞行安全风险的度量。模型有效区分了类似飞行事故这样高损失、低概率事件与飞行事故征候这样低损失、高概率事件风险之间的差异,克服了期望值法的局限性。最后通过实例验证了该方法的科学性和有效性。     

Lexicographic quasilinear utility

This paper presents necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a finite-dimensional quasilinear utility function whose lexicographically ordered utility vectors preserve a decision maker’s preference order on a mixture space.