Exchange Rate Passthrough to Export Prices: Assessing Cross‐Country Evidence*

A growing empirical literature reports evidence of a decline in exchange rate passthrough to import prices in a number of industrial countries. Our paper complements this literature by examining passthrough from the other side of the transaction; that is, we assess the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices (denominated in the exporter's currency). We find that the prices charged on exports to the United States are more responsive to the exchange rate than are export prices to other destinations, which is consistent with results in the literature that import price passthrough in the US market is relatively low. In addition, the exchange rate sensitivity of export prices over time has been significantly affected by country‐ and region‐specific factors, including the Asian financial crisis (for emerging Asia), deepening integration with the United States (for Canada), and the effects of the 1992 ERM crisis (for the United Kingdom).     

The Setting of Retail Prices in a Customer Market*

This paper extends the theory of the determination of retail prices in a customer market to a shop selling many types of goods. For a multi-good shop, a discontinuous marginal revenue function for each good sold is derived. Under reasonable assumptions the size of this discontinuity depends only on the customer dynamics and is independent of own-price elasticities and cross-price elasticities. A discussion of the determination of producer prices shows how the theory can explain the relative stability of retail prices.     

Prices versus Rationing: Marshallian Surplus and Mandatory Water Restrictions*

An aggregate daily water demand for Sydney is estimated and used to calculate the difference in Marshallian surplus between using the metered price of household water to regulate total consumption versus mandatory water restrictions for the period 2004/2005. The loss in Marshallian surplus from using mandatory water restrictions is calculated to be $235 million. On a per capita basis this equates to approximately $55 per person or about $150 per household – a little less than half the average Sydney household water bill in 2005.     

Inflation and Productivity: Empirical Evidence from Europe

The paper investigates the empirical association between inflation and productivity in 15 European countries over the period 1960–97. Modern econometric techniques based on integration and cointegra– tion analysis are used to test for the existence of a long–run relationship between inflation and productivity. Recently developed causality tests for possibly cointegrated VAR models are also applied instead of relying on standard Granger causality tests which are inappropriate in the presence of nonstationary variables.     

Primary Commodity Prices and the Terms of Trade*

This paper provides a survey of a range of issues involved in the analysis of primary commodity prices and the terms of trade. Particular emphasis is placed upon the long-run behaviour of the terms of trade between primary commodities and manufactures and the paper presents some new evidence regarding the long-run behaviour of Australia's terms of trade.     

The Differential-Productivity Hypothesis and Purchasing-Power Parties: Some New Evidence*

The structure of prices of goods entering into international trade relative to those that do not plays a key role in the Balassa-Samuelson explanation of why countries ‘exchange rates differ systematically from their currencies’ purchasing power. the B-S analysis leads to the proposition that the tradable-nontradable price difference is lower for rich countries than for poor. This paper examines the gap, using prices collected by the International Comparison Programme. A variety of regressions were run to see if indeed the difference between tradable and nontradable price parities moved with income in the way B-S expected. They did.     

Inflation, Shadow Prices and the EMU: Evidence From Greece

The paper examines whether inflation systematically distorts the informational content of price signals. A shadow cost function is specified, and the deviation of shadow from actual prices is modeled as a function of the level of economy‐wide inflation, as well as other conditioning variables like budget deficits and changes in inflation rate. It is found that inflation is associated with significant allocative costs in most Greek manufacturing sectors. Measures of cost gains resulting from Greece's convergence towards the EMU are provided and the policy implications are explored.     

Long-Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence

Abstract. Starting from the quantity theory of money we analyse the dynamic relationships between money, real output and prices for an unbalanced panel of 110 economies. Complementary to trivariate analyses we also adopt a P-star model explaining inflation via an equilibrium price level (P-star), which in turn depends on potential output and money. A key issue of the paper is the cross-sectional stability of estimation and inference results. We find cointegration among the considered variables. Particularly for high inflation countries homogeneity between prices and money cannot be rejected. Given homogeneity we find evidence for an error-correction mechanism linking current price changes and the lagged price gap. Parameter estimates indicating the adjustment towards the price equilibrium are larger in absolute value for high inflation countries. The latter results indicate that central banks, even in high inflation countries, can improve price stability by controlling monetary growth.     

Trade Policy and Poverty In the United States: Theory and Evidence, 1947-1990*

This paper develops a two-sector general equilibrium model to examine the impact of technical progress, factor accumulation, labor growth, unemployment, trade policy, and the government's antipoverty programs on the rate of poverty. the results are then tested empirically using the data regarding the United States. We find that low unemployment, productivity growth, and government transfers have the expected effects of alleviating poverty; but trade liberalization has the unexpected effect of being associated with a major increase in poverty-a result contradicting traditional views.     

Prices or Quantities Can Dominate Banking and Borrowing*

The possibility of intertemporal banking and borrowing of tradable permits is often viewed as tilting the various policy debates about optimal pollution control instruments towards favoring such time-flexible quantities. This paper shows that this view can be misleading, at least for the simplest dynamic extension of the original “prices versus quantities” information structure. The model of this paper allows firms to know and act upon the realization of uncertain future costs two full periods ahead of the regulators. For any given circumstance, the paper shows that either a fixed price or a fixed quantity is superior in expected welfare to time-flexible banking and borrowing. Furthermore, the standard original formula for the comparative advantage of prices over quantities contains sufficient information to completely characterize the regulatory role of intertemporal banking and borrowing. The logic and implications of these results are analyzed and discussed.     

中国利率政策与房地产价格的互动关系研究

本文通过建立结构向量自回归模型对中国房地产价格与利率政策之间的互动关系进行了探讨,发现中国的利率政策并不能对房地产价格形成有效的调节,造成了利率政策房地产价格传导渠道的失效;相反,房地产价格冲击对利率政策却具有显著的正向影响,说明中国历史上的利率政策制定的确参考了房地产价格因素,并对其作出了一定的反应。本文还利用模拟分析对样本期间内我国利率政策的实施效果进行了分析评价。研究结论对中国中央银行利率政策的有效执行及房地产市场调控具有重要政策启示。     

Disaggregated Earnings and Stock Prices: Evidence from International Listed Shipping Firms

The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of earnings from vessel sales on stock prices for international listed shipping firms. The empirical findings show that operating income from vessel sales has a higher power in explaining stock prices than operating earnings only as a sole piece of accounting information for future profitability, investment opportunities, and firm valuation. The testing period is from 2000 to 2009. The methodologies are those of panel cointegration and panel causality tests. The implications are very crucial, since managers may manipulate annual earnings by such non-operating activities.     

Investment Spending in Australia: Further Study and Interpretation*

Recent work in macro theory suggests that aggregate 'demand' policies have direct supply-side effects in the short run, if Lucas's standard specification of the nonlinear adjustment costs for capital is generalized In this paper, we estimate an investment equation (involving Tobin's valuation ratio and Australian data) which nests three hypotheses: Lucas's standard specification of adjustment costs, a simple generalization which permits labour to be involved in the installation of capital and a model which allows for liquidity constraints. The results support the suggested alternative formulation of the q-theory     

独立董事的独立性:基于董事会投票的证据

本文利用中国特有的强制披露数据,即中国上市公司独立董事对董事会议案发表意见和进行投票的数据,考察了独立董事相对于管理层的独立性及其监督作用。本文发现,绝大多数情况下独董并不会公开质疑管理层行为,这在一定程度上符合Mace(1986)对独董投票权属于橡皮图章的描述。然而,当公司业绩不佳时,独董更有可能对管理层行为提出公开质疑;并且,声誉越高、具有财务背景、任职时间早于董事长任职时间的独立董事更有可能对管理层决策提出质疑。进一步研究发现,存在异议独董的公司市场价值也更高。这表明当公司面临危机时,独立董事能够发挥监督作用,并且独立董事的监督行为能够缓解代理问题,提高公司价值。     

Exchange Rates, Market Structure, Prices and Imports*

Eighteen months after sizable declines in the US and Australian dollars in 1985, the trade accounts of both countries showed little improvement In some markets import prices failed to decline as expected Was this due to normal lags, or are there markets where exchange rate responses are limited? This paper analyzes the impact of firm behaviour and market structure on the sensitivity of import markets to exchange rate changes.     

Selectivity and Transparency in Social Banking: Evidence from Europe

How do social banks signal their social commitment to motivated funders? We hypothesize that two main channels are used: selectivity and transparency. We test these predictions using a rich dataset comprising balancesheet information on 5,000 European banks over the period from 1998 to 2013. The results suggest that social screening leads social banks to higher project selectivity compared to mainstream banks. Social banks also tend to be more transparent than other banks. However, combining selectivity and transparency can result in excess liquidity. Overall, the empirical findings not only confirm our theoretical hypotheses, but also raise challenging issues regarding the management of social banks.     

Indecision Theory: Weight of Evidence and Voting Behavior

In this paper, we show how to incorporate weight of evidence, or ambiguity, into a model of voting behavior. We do so in the context of the turnout decision of instrumentally rational voters who differ in their perception of the ambiguity of the candidates' policy positions. Ambiguity is reflected by the fact that the voter's beliefs are given by a set of probabilities, each of which represents in the voter's mind a different possible scenario. We show that a voter who is averse to ambiguity considers abstention strictly optimal when the candidates' policy positions are both ambiguous and they are “ambiguity complements.” Abstaining is preferred since it is tantamount to mixing the prospects embodied by the two candidates, thus enabling the voter to “hedge” the candidates' ambiguity.     

Social capital, innovation and growth: Evidence from Europe

This paper investigates the interplay between social capital, innovation and per capita income growth in the European Union. We model and identify innovation as an important mechanism that transforms social capital into higher income levels. In an empirical investigation of 102 European regions in the period 1990-2002, we show that higher innovation performance is conducive to per capita income growth and that social capital affects this growth indirectly by fostering innovation. Our estimates suggest that there is no direct role for social capital to foster per capita income growth in our sample of European Union countries.     

Rent Sharing In the Multi-Fibre Arrangement: Theory and Evidence From Us Apparel Imports From Hong Kong*

Available estimates of tariff equivalents and welfare costs of MFA quotas are based on the premise of perfect competition in both product and license markets, and the assumption that exporting countries receive all the scarcity rent. We test if US apparel imports from Hong Kong conform with this competitive model by looking at whether the license-price-inclusive Hong Kong price, adjusted for tariffs and transport costs, is equal to the US price. We deal with the homogeneous product case and correct for both aggregation and quality differences. We find that US importers seem to retain a substantial portion of the quota rents.     

Bank Reform and Behavior in Central Europe

This paper analyzes the banking systems of the former Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland in a comparative perspective with the aim of determining whether hank behavior has changed as a reaction to banking reform and the new market environment. It is shown that bank behavior changed dramatically in 1992. The paper argues that behavior changed in response to nonperforming loans which came to light and to improved bank regulation and supervision. Nonetheless, much remains to be done to make the banking system effective in financial intermediation and corporate control. J. Comp. Econom., December 1994, 19(3), pp. 335-361. Bank for International Settlements, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland.