What Drives Stock Price Behavior Following Extreme One-Day Returns

We identify samples of losers and winners by selecting daily stock price returns in excess of 10% (sign ignored) and determine whether these samples over‐ or underreact. We then identify “informed” events, which correspond to announcements in the Wall Street Journal(WSJ), and “uninformed” events, which are not explained in the WSJ. For winners, there is overreaction in response to uninformed events but no overreaction on average in response to informed events. This finding suggests the degree of overreaction to new information depends on whether the cause of the extreme stock price change is publicly released.     

The Impact of the Source and Sequence of Information in Primary Equity Offerings

Empirical studies of the announcement effects of equity offerings have generally defined the event date as the earlier of the SEC registration date or the first mention in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), the implicit assumption being that the two types of announcements are equally informative. This study examines whether the source of the event announcement might influence a study's results and whether subsequent announcements from other sources elicit a market reaction. Specifically, this paper investigates whether Dow Jones News Wire (DJNW) announcements that differ in timing from either of these information events elicit a market response and, more important, whether impacts from the DJNW announcements alter the validity of the widely used methodology. The results of the paper indicate that, for issues that are not mentioned in the WSJ Index, there is a negative and significant return on the registration date. However, no matter whether the registration occurs before or after its mention on the DJNW, the share price reaction is greater from mention on the DJNW than at registration. This finding leads to the conclusion that the DJNW should be used as the event date and that press coverage     

Stock Prices and the Secondary Dissemination of Information: The Wall Street Journal's "Insider Trading Spotlight"Column

In this paper we test whether a secondary dissemination of information affects stock prices. We examine stock price reactions to the publication of the “Insider Trading Spotlight”(ITS) column in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Since insider trades reported in the ITS column are initially disclosed to the public when insiders’ reports are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the information contained in the WSJ is a secondary dissemination. Around the WSJ publication day, we find significant abnormal stock performance accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. Our evidence suggests that a secondary dissemination of information can affect stock prices if the initial public disclosure attracts only limited attention by the market. In addition, we document how insider trading information is conveyed to the market.     

The Impact of Corporate Governance Press News on Stock Market Returns

Stock market prices reflect information regarding firms’ business environments, operations and, in general, their fundamentals. Recently, various studies have analysed the link between news coverage and stock prices but no evidence exists on how channels and ways of communication of information affect investors’ behaviour. We analyses these aspects focussing on a large sample of corporate governance news published between 2003 and 2007 in ‘Il Sole 24 Ore’, Italy's major financial newspaper. We show that before news is made public investors are only able to assess the type of corporate governance event underlying it. After publication, investors are influenced by the content (positive or negative) and the tone of communication (strong or weak) of the news.     

Are trading bans effective? Exchange regulation and corporate insider transactions around earnings announcements

There is considerable controversy on the role of corporate insider trading in the financial markets. However, there appears to be a consensus view that some form of regulation concerning their activities should be imposed. One such constraint involves a trading ban in periods when corporate insiders are expected to be advantaged vis-à-vis the information flow. This paper directly tests whether constraints of this kind are effective in curtailing insider activity through a study of the trading characteristics of UK company directors. The London Stock Exchange Model Code (1977) imposes a two-month close period prior to company earnings announcements. We find that although the close period affects the timing of director trades, it is unable to affect their performance or distribution. Directors consistently earn abnormal returns irrespective of the period in which they trade. They tend to buy after abnormally bad earnings news and sell after abnormally good earnings news. Moreover, there are systematic differences in the trading patterns of directors surrounding interim and final earnings announcements. It appears that many corporate insiders have private information and exploit this in their trading activities. As a result, one can conclude that trading bans do not impose significant opportunity costs on the trading of corporate insiders.     

SECURITY PRICE REACTIONS AROUND PRODUCT RECALL ANNOUNCEMENTS

This study presents an empirical, event-time analysis of the financial impact of product recall announcements on the equity holders of affected firms. Product recalls convey relevant information to the market at the time the announcement is reported in The Wall Street Journal. Further, security prices continue to react significantly to product recall announcements for approximately two months following the initial news release. No relation between the firm's equity decline and the direct costs of the recall is found, indicating the importance of indirect costs such as litigation or a reduction in future corporate sales due to reputation damage.     

Prior Wall Street Journal Announcements of Possible Bankruptcy Filings and Price Reactions to Subsequent Bankruptcy Filings

This study examines the relation between prior Wall Street Journal (WSJ) announcements of possible bankruptcy filings and price reactions to subsequent bankruptcy filings for 336 firms that filed for bankruptcy between 1980 and 1993. Extant research indicates that price reactions to announcements of economic events are inversely related to the amount of surprise in the announcements. Prior WSJ anouncements of possible bankruptcy filings increase the markets a priori assessment of firms' probability of bankruptcy, thereby potentially reducing the surprise in subsequent bankruptcy filings. We hypothesize smaller price reactions to bankruptcy filings for firms where the WSJ previously published an article indicating that the firm may file for bankruptcy. Our results are consistent with this hypothesis. Specifically, we find smaller price reactions to bankruptcy filings for firms with prior WSJ announcements of possible bankruptcy filings. Our results hold after controlling for firm size, probability of bankruptcy, exchange listing, leverage, and predisclosure information.     

The Causal Impact of Media in Financial Markets

Disentangling the causal impact of media reporting from the impact of the events being reported is challenging. We solve this problem by comparing the behaviors of investors with access to different media coverage of the same information event. We use zip codes to identify 19 mutually exclusive trading regions corresponding with large U.S. cities. For all earnings announcements of S&P 500 Index firms, we find that local media coverage strongly predicts local trading, after controlling for earnings, investor, and newspaper characteristics. Moreover, local trading is strongly related to the timing of local reporting, a particular challenge to nonmedia explanations.     

Trading volume and firm-specific announcements: Implications for the market model

The market model is commonly used in finance to study events and to evaluate security performance. With daily data, it is not uncommon to find low R-squares, in the range 0–10%. Prior studies have attempted to improve the fit of the model by excluding observations associated with high trading volume. In this study, we compare the results of the high-volume-exclusion approach with the more direct firm-specific announcement exclusion approach. The announcement approach excludes observations associated with Wall Street Journal Index news items regarding the firm. By excluding the [−1,0] fays relative to such news in a sample of 68 firms, we find that R-squares increase significantly by about 5%. By excluding the days relative to earnings announcements only, R-squares increase by about 4%. These results are then compared to the high-volume-exclusion approach. It is found that this approach is more efficient as an 8% increase in R-squares is produced.The results of this study provide valuable evidence to empiricists by comparing the two approaches to improving the fit of the market model. The high-volume -exclusion approach provides higher R-squares. However, the relative efficiency of the two approaches should be balanced against the arguments for the methodologically correct approach. The advantage of using the firm-specific announcement exclusion approach is that there is more confidence of excluding only firm-specific movements from the estimation of the market model. It also allows a researcher to quickly and unambiguously identify the announcements and delete the corresponding observations. Furthermore, we find that about 50% of the improved fit, relative to the volume approach, can be accomplished by excluding earnings announcements. The methodological disadvantage of using the high-volume-exclusion approach is that it is affected not only by firm-specific announcements but also by other factors, such as the heterogeneity of investor expectations. These factors may influence the choice of using firm-specific announcements rather than the high-volume approach despite the lower increment in R-squares.     

The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market

We study the relation between the number of news announcements reported daily by Dow Jones & Company and aggregate measures of securities market activity including trading volume and market returns. We find that the number of Dow Jones announcements and market activity are directly related and that the results are robust to the addition of factors previously found to influence financial markets such as day-of-the-week dummy variables, news importance as proxied by large New York Times headlines and major macroeconomic announcements, and noninformation sources of market activity as measured by dividend capture and triple witching trading. However, the observed relation between news and market activity is not particularly strong and the patterns in news announcements do not explain the day-of-the-week seasonalities in market activity. Our analysis of the Dow Jones database confirms the difficulty of linking volume and volatility to observed measures of information.     

Estimating the cross-sectional market response to an endogenous event: Naked vs. underwritten calls of convertible bonds

The literature on conditional event studies advocates the use of endogenous switching models to analyze cross-sectional variation in the stock market's response to corporate announcements of endogenous events. This paper proposes the use of a flexible Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for estimating such models. The Bayesian MCMC approach offers several advantages over the Heckman–Lee two-stage estimation approach. In particular, analysis of the “treatment effect” (the difference between the observed and counter-factual outcomes) controls for the endogeneity of the firm's choice. As an application, the paper examines the market's response to naked and underwritten calls of convertible bonds. The paper reports evidence that the market's response to calls of convertible bonds is correlated with the private information partially revealed by the firm's choice of call type. However, although the average treatment effect associated with an underwritten call is negative, it is not significantly different from zero.     

Information in CDS spreads

We investigate how public and private information affects corporate CDS spreads prior to rating announcements. First, CDS spreads of firms with high news intensity change significantly earlier and more strongly prior to negative rating announcements than those of firms with low news intensity. Second, the contents of daily corporate news significantly influence the direction in which the CDS spreads move. Third, CDS spreads change more strongly for firms with more bank relationships and days with no news but large abnormal CDS spread changes are more frequent prior to negative rating announcements than prior to positive ones. The study provides new evidence on the informational efficiency of the CDS market, the impact of credit rating announcements, and insider trading.     

Japanese stock market reaction to announcements of news affecting auditors’ reputation: The case of the Olympus fraud

The revelation of accounting fraud by the Olympus Corporation gave rise to shareholder allegations of audit failure against Olympus’ auditors—Ernst & Young ShinNihon LLC and KPMG AZSA LLC—in 2011. In this study, we investigate whether the auditors’ affiliation with Olympus contributes to divergent perceptions of audit quality in the event of news announcements affecting the reputation of Olympus’ auditors. First, we use a nonparametric generalized rank event study methodology on 918 sample firms from the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) to observe Japanese investors’ perceptions of auditor reputation as proxied by abnormal returns. Second, we perform a multivariate linear regression on firms’ abnormal returns after controlling for firm-specific variables. We find that Japanese investors do not respond to negative or neutral reputational information arising from news announcements concerning Olympus’ auditors for firms affiliated and not affiliated with those auditors. In the absence of legal penalties imposed on Olympus’ auditors, we argue that Japanese investors consider the Olympus fraud case as an expected occurrence of audit failure due to a lack of evidence suggesting systematic audit failure on the part of Olympus’ auditors and an expectation of lower audit quality in the Japanese capital market. As a result, Japanese investors do not consider news announcements affecting the Olympus auditors’ reputation as sufficient evidence to change their prior expectation regarding the reputations of the audit firms affiliated with the Olympus fraud case.     

Too Good to be True? An Analysis of the Options Market's Reactions to Earnings Releases

Using option implied risk neutral return distributions before and after earnings announcements, we study the option market's reaction to extreme events over earnings announcements. While earnings announcements generally reduce short‐term uncertainty about the stock price, very good news does not reduce uncertainty and slightly bad news actually increases uncertainty. We also find that left tail probabilities decrease over earnings releases while right tail probabilities increase. We interpret these findings as evidence of maintained investor expectations that very good news is generally not released during earnings announcements, combined with skepticism in the form of lingering uncertainty at the release of such very good news.     

Overnight public information,order placement,and price discovery during the pre-opening period

This study examines the impact of corporate news announcements released overnight on price discovery during the pre-opening period in the Australian Securities Exchange. Our results suggest that the presence of these announcements increases the efficiency of indicative opening prices and that the intensity of these announcements significantly influences the aggressiveness of pre-opening orders. Using earnings announcements to compare the speed of price adjustments in response to overnight and daytime information of a homogeneous type, we find that prices respond immediately to overnight news upon the commencement of trading, whereas adjustments based on trading-hours news tend not to be instantaneous. Overall, our evidence highlights the important role of the pre-opening period in price discovery and the prospect of further enhancing this role by timing the release of public information to occur during non-trading hours.     

Anticipated Earnings Announcements and the Customer–Supplier Anomaly

I test whether the anticipation of earnings news stimulates acquisition of customer information and mitigates returns to the customer–supplier anomaly documented by Cohen and Frazzini (“Economic Links and Predictable Returns.” The Journal of Finance 63 (2008): 1977–2011). I find that attention to a firm's publicly disclosed customers increases shortly before the firm announces earnings, and that customer stock returns predict supplier stock returns shortly before, but not after, the supplier's earnings announcement. I further find some evidence that these predictable returns are increasing in the level of customer information acquisition. These results are unique to anticipated disclosure events and suggest that anticipation of supplier earnings announcements resolves investor limited attention to customer information and accelerates price discovery of customer news.     

Do Analyst Stock Recommendations Piggyback on Recent Corporate News? An Analysis of Regular‐Hour and After‐Hours Revisions

Analysts often update their recommendations following corporate news. Questions have been raised regarding analysts’ ability to generate new information beyond recent corporate events. Employing a comprehensive database on corporate news, we show that only a small minority, or 27.9%, of all recommendation revisions directionally confirm the information in the preceding corporate events and even these “confirming revisions” facilitate the information discovery of corporate events and thus cannot simply be dismissed as “piggybacking.” Our analysis further shows that analysts not only facilitate price discovery to corporate news through issuing trending revisions but also help reverse prevailing market sentiments following corporate news by issuing contrarian revisions. Our study is the first to investigate short‐window intraday market reactions to revisions issued after hours, which account for 70% of all recommendation revisions in our sample period. Analysts’ incentives to issue revisions after hours appear to reflect demands from large institutional clients, who dominate after‐hours trading. More importantly, we show that the after‐hours revisions are associated with significantly greater price reactions and different price reaction patterns than revisions issued during regular trading hours. Collectively, our evidence indicates that analysts are a significant source of new information beyond recent corporate news and they also help shape the market's assessment of corporate disclosures.     

Announcement and Publication Decisions and the Use of Prediction Errors in Cross-Sectional Analysis: Evidence on Seasoned Equity Issues

An important concern for empirical analysis of market responses to public releases of information is whether the voluntary nature of announcement and publication decisions imparts a selectivity bias and, if so, how this bias affects empirical results. Using a database of SEC filings of equity issues, all related Wall Street Journal published announcements are identified. The published announcements are used to classify proposed issues into subsamples with homogeneous information structures. Announcement and WSJ publication decisions are found to be non-random but, for industrial firms, not significantly related to firm size or exchange listing. Coefficients estimated without controlling for selectivity are found not to be significantly biased for either industrial or utility issues. However, for industrial issues, significance levels are considerably lower when selectivity bias is controlled. The hypothesis common to other studies of new issue announcement effects that observations from different information structures can be pooled, with coefficient estimates restricted to be equal across information structures, is rejected. The results have implications for the methods used to study cross-sectional market responses     

Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements

This article analyzes the timing of CEO stock option awards, as a method of investigating corporate managers' influence over the terms of their own compensation. In a sample of 620 stock option awards to CEOs of Fortune 500 companies between 1992 and 1994, I find that the timing of awards coincides with favorable movements in company stock prices. Patterns of companies' quarterly earnings announcements are consistent with an interpretation that CEOs receive stock option awards shortly before favorable corporate news. I evaluate and reject several alternative explanations of the results, including insider trading and the manipulation of news announcement dates.     

DEBT REFUNDING AND SHAREHOLDER WEALTH: THE PRICE EFFECTS OF DEBT-FOR-DEBT EXCHANGE OFFER ANNOUNCEMENTS

This study examines the impact of debt refunding on common stock prices for a sample of 48 exchange offers announced from 1970 through 1981. Exchange offer announcements do not have a significant impact on average common stock returns but appear to produce idiosyncratic share price effects. Refunding-induced price effects were unrelated to several exchange offer characteristics including tax shield increases, exchange offer premia, and transaction costs of refunding. Common stock excess returns were negatively related to reductions in debt service payments and relaxation of dividend payment constraints. Thus, the evidence is consistent with theories predicting that certain debt refundings generate negative information-signaling price effects.