Missing markets for storage and the potential economic cost of expanding the spatial scope of water trade

A great deal of attention has been given in recent years to the question of externalities associated with water entitlements and how third parties can be protected without restricting opportunities for water trade. Yet one market failure that has received no attention at all is the missing market for storage that arises from the specification of water entitlements, particularly in Victoria where historically all storage decisions were made at the centralised level and where any additional carryover was treated as common property. The economic significance of the missing market for storage is demonstrated using an empirical model that represents the spatial‐temporal pattern of irrigation water demand in the Goulburn Valley and decisions regarding inter‐year storage of water in Lake Eildon. It is shown that, because irrigators have no incentive to trade‐off the benefit of current use (or sale) with the value of water storage, there is an erosion of reliability when opportunities for trade are broadened. The empirical results demonstrate that the loss in economic value associated with reduced reliability are as large as the gains from trade, so there is no net benefit from trade.     

Issues in defining property rights to improve Australian water markets

This article discusses the key practical issues associated with defining property rights to water use, in the context of broadening the scope of the market for transferable water entitlements. In particular, the third party impacts of water trade and the need for improved water trading rules are discussed. Some of the issues associated with defining the reliability of water rights, including the design of appropriate dam management policies, are also discussed. The article concludes with some positive suggestions for the policy debate.     

PROFITABILITY OF INCREMENTAL EXPENDITURE ON FIBRE PROMOTION

In this paper the impact of changes in wool promotion expenditure and changes in expenditure on the promotion of competing fibres are examined using an equilibrium displacement model. The emphasis is on examining impacts on producer profits net of promotion expenditure and on benefit-cost ratios measuring changes in producer surplus relative to changes in promotion expenditure. It was found, for example, that incremental expenditure on apparel wool promotion on the domestic market is unprofitable but incremental expenditure on promotion of apparel wool on the export market is generally profitable. Further, it was found that increased promotion of cotton and man-made fibres on the export market, with promotion of apparel wool unchanged, would reduce profits to apparel wool producers. Finally, a case is made for improved data availability in order to allow more comprehensive ex-ante and ex-post evaluations of promotion programs, thereby increasing the intensity of scrutiny of promotion programs to a level more in line with that for investment in rural research and development.     

The Effectiveness of Antidumping Measures: Some Evidence for Farmed Atlantic Salmon

Counterfactual simulations of a partial equilibrium model of the world salmon market suggest safeguard tariffs imposed by the European Commission on salmon imports from Norway, Chile, and the Faroe Islands would do more to punish producers in the named exporting countries than to reward United Kingdom producers. The reason is that export supply is less elastic than import demand on a bilateral basis, which means that most of the tariff's incidence is borne by the targeted producers rather than EU consumers. The incidence problem is exacerbated by the feed quota (now biomass limit) that Norway uses to limit its production. A marketing fee that expands market demand is shown to be less distortionary than its tariff equivalent, and thus may be preferred from a second‐best perspective.     

The regulatory framework, unplanned development and urban poverty: Findings from Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

The regulatory framework adopted in many urban areas of the developing countries has been blamed for aiming at unrealistically high standards and for being bureaucratic, thus putting legal land and shelter out of reach of poor households. The latter end up living in unplanned settlements, which develop irregularly, sometimes on marginal land, lacking basic infrastructure. Poverty is therefore perpetuated. This paper evaluates planning standards and administrative procedures as applied to a specific scheme at the outskirts of the city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. It is shown that the high standards for plot sizes and road reserves resulted into the production of only 3900 instead of 15,000 plots over the same area, had more realistic standards been adopted. The unit cost per plot would have been a quarter of what it came to be. Centralised and bureaucratic set-ups and procedures resulted into unnecessarily long periods before planning schemes could be implemented; or land, certificates of title or building permits made available to would-be developers. Many develop the land without these permits or titles. Land was much easier to get in unplanned areas but converting it to legality was virtually impossible.The policy framework supports the revision of planning standards; the incorporation of communities and the private sector in land delivery; and the decentralisation and streamlining of procedures. In practice, officials aim at high standards, centralised and lengthy administrative procedures, and direct public sector involvement in land delivery. Evidence is provided of the deleterious effects of the continued hesitation to address the regulatory framework whose revision downwards would result into more legal land being available, faster and at a lower cost; thus reaching more of the low income households, reducing unplanned development and making a positive impact on dealing with urban poverty.     

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY

The process by which producers form expectations has implications for model building and policy analysis. An econometric model of the Australian wool market is estimated. It is shown that the rational expectations hypothesis is not inconsistent with the data for both the period before the floor price scheme was implemented and since that date. This finding has important implications, since it has been shown that the welfare gains from stabilisation are small if producers form rational expectations.     

ON THE HIDDEN REVENUE EFFECTS OF WOOL PRICE STABILISATION IN AUSTRALIA: INITIAL RESULTS

A preliminary analysis of demand in eight major OECD wool-consuming countries is used to provide up-to-date estimates of price elasticities of demand for wool. Those elasticities are employed to calculate ex ante market prices, assuming no wool price stabilisation in Australia. The computed ex ante prices are used in a dynamic simulation to estimate demand and, hence, revenue from wool sales to the eight countries in the absence of reserve price operations in Australia. Based on the preferred semi-log demand curve, the variability of wool prices is estimated to have been reduced by 44 per cent, due to Australian intervention in the market up to 1977/78. However, price stabilisation is estimated to have lowered the revenue from Australian wool sales to the eight countries by S139m, or by 2 per cent, in the period up to 1977/78.     

RISK,UTILITY AND STOCKING RATE*

A simple utility-based model of risky wool production is presented. Evaluation of the model indicates the effect on optimal stocking rate of changes in the degree of risk aversion, farm area, variable cost, fixed cost, wool cut, wool price, variance of wool price, climatic variability and tax rate. It is shown that the utility hypothesis implies a lower optimal stocking rate than does expected profit maximization and hence implies a discrepancy between private and public optimal resource use which it is suggested, might be mitigated by a progressive bounty on wool production.     

Economic benefits of public investment in weed management: the case of vulpia in south-eastern Australia's temperate pasture areas

The present paper reports an economic evaluation of the long-term benefits to Australia of research by the Cooperative Research Centre for Weed Management Systems (CRC) into the improved management of vulpia , the major annual grass weed of temperate pastures in New South Wales and Victoria. Vulpia reduces livestock production by competition with more desirable pasture species, by the production of low quality feed at critical times of the grazing cycle, and by injury to animals. A 20-year stochastic benefit-cost analysis indicated that reducing the impacts of vulpia in these pastures produced a mean net present value of $A58.3 million and a mean benefit-cost ratio of 33:1. Temperate pasture zone wool producers would capture the largest shares of these benefits, Australian consumers would gain, but wool producers in the rest of Australia would suffer welfare losses from vulpia reductions in the temperate pasture zones.     

PRODUCT TRADING — AN ALTERNATIVE TO TRANSFERABLE WHEAT QUOTAS

This note examines the implications of permitting producers to trade wheat amongst themselves. The outcome, in efficiency terms, is identical to that achieved with transferable quotas. For some producers, there may be advantages in product trading that are not available in transferable quotas.     

THE RETURNS TO INVESTMENT IN RESEARCH ON AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRODUCTION*

A production function approach is used to estimate growth in farm productivity in the Australian wool industry from an estimated level of expenditure on wool production R & D. A market equilibrium model of the wool industry is then used to measure the share of total benefits from this productivity growth accruing to Australia and its wool growers. A net return is estimated after allowing for lags in the development and adoption of technology.     

The costs of global tariff barriers on wool products: 1997–2005

The Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations commits World Trade Organization (WTO) members to improving market access for both agricultural and nonagricultural goods. Tariff barriers on wool products represent a small but important subset of these negotiations. To inform the debate on the round, we analyze the distortionary effects of recent (1997–2005) tariff barriers on wool products using a model that applies a comprehensive analytical approach with regard to the production, trade, and consumption of wool products. We also account for any indirect effects of wool tariff barriers on the nonwool economy by incorporating the production, trade, and consumption of nonwool products, that is, the framework is a comparative‐static global general equilibrium model with a detailed representation of the world wool market. Changes in wool tariffs over 1997–2005 lead to positive welfare effects for most regions; Italy, China, and the UK are estimated to have gained the most from the changes. The results indicate that the nature of recent wool tariffs severely distort the size of wool industries in different regions. The changes in the output of wool commodities are extreme reflecting the discriminatory nature of the tariffs.     

The economic benefits of rabbit control in Australian temperate pastures by the introduction of rabbit haemorrhagic disease

The European rabbit is present in most Australian environments and causes economic loss in agricultural systems by reducing production and imposing control costs on producers and governments. Research into rabbit control has recognised the need for reliable benefit‐cost analysis to justify inputs into rabbit management. This paper provides estimates of the costs of rabbits in Australian temperate pasture systems and of the long‐term benefits of reducing rabbits by the introduction of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD). Rabbits impose annual costs on wool producers in the temperate pasture areas of between 7.1 and 38.7 million Australian dollars (mA$) depending on their density. Controlling rabbits by RHD has the potential to generate substantial long‐term economic benefits by reducing grazing competition with sheep. Reducing rabbit costs by 25% generated 15‐year net present values (NPVs) between 18.4 and 97.3 mA$ at various pre‐RHD rabbit densities. A 50% reduction in rabbit costs increased the total NPVs between 36.9 and 202.4 mA$, virtually all of which was captured by temperate area wool producers. The corresponding benefit‐cost ratios were between 2.9:1 and 16.2:1 for a 25% rabbit reduction and 5.9:1 and32.4:l for a 50% reduction, where the total costs of the RHD program in the temperate pasture areas were incurred by the wool industry. The analysis provides guidelines for the economic evaluation of other pest problems in agricultural production systems.     

Counting the cost: the reserve price scheme for wool 1970‐2001

This paper provides a policy commentary on the collapse in 1991 of the Australian Reserve Price Scheme for wool. A key cause of the collapse in the Scheme was a change in the RPS's governance arrangements, which led to increased political pressures to raise prices to unsustainable levels. In addition, in this paper an estimation has been made of the direct, upfront costs of the operation of the scheme, drawing on the financial accounts of the various agencies operating the RPS and subsequent wool stockpile. This was undertaken to determine the scale of the policy failure.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF RESEARCH INTO TRADED GOODS: THE CASE OF AUSTRALIAN WOOL

The final incidence of benefits and costs of wool industry research and development (R&D) undertaken in Australia depends greatly on the nature of the R&D and the way it is funded. Using preferred parameter values, the Australian share of benefits from farm-level R&D is 58 per cent (falling to 40 per cent if there is 50 per cent adoption of the new technology by producers overseas); the Australian shares of benefits from wool-processing R&D ere 24 per cent (topmaking) and 27 per cent (textile-processing). Under current funding arrangements, an Australian wool tax provides about one-eighth of total R&D funds, a matching government grant provides another one-eighth, and other public sector funds make up the remaining three-quarters. Under these arrangements, the final incidence of the costs is 95 per cent on Australians (mostly taxpayers at large), and the wool industry bears only 12.5 per cent of the costs of its R&D. One implication is that a wool tax alone is a more equitable and efficient means of financing wool-industry R&D than the current arrangements.     

Chile's agricultural diversification

Chile's fruit sector, both in production and exports, has grown significantly since 1974. At that time, Chile introduced structural reforms in its economy which assured that market principles would operate regarding land ownership. Also, the government began a ‘hands-off’ policy which basically allowed free-market principles to prevail. As a result of these conditions operating in the economy, Chile's agricultural sector diversified from producing largely annual crops and wool to also producing a significant amount of commercial fruit crops. A second round of diversification is currently underway within the fruit industry where pears and peaches are being produced and exported in addition to apples and table grapes. In this paper we derive decision criteria when aggregate performance is evaluated from the perspective of maximizing a risk-averse utility function. Empirical evidence on Chilean fruit exports indicates that, on an aggregate level, Chilean fruit exporters are following the path of utility maximization and validates the sequence by which Chilean producers introduced nontraditional crops over time. While on an individual level there may be complex factors and constraints involved in the planting decisions, the results of this study seem to indicate that the sum of producer behavior satisfies the conditions required for maximizing a risk-averse utility function.     

OPTIMAL WOOL FLOWS FOR MINIMIZATION OF TRANSPORT COSTS*

Movements of wool from grower to wool store in Queensland, N.S.W., Victoria, and South Australia are affected by differing State legislation and Section 92 of the Australian Constitution. Taking various arrangements within each State into account, average wool transport costs from wool production areas to selling centres are found. A linear programming technique is then applied to produce an optimal pattern of wool flows minimizing transport costs for all growers.     

A Market-Forces Policy for the New Farm Economy?

This paper first discusses the changes that are bringing about the New Farm Economy. A wave of consolidation has shifted agricultural production to larger, lower cost producers in almost all sectors of agriculture. At the same time, supply chains represent a new form of ownership and control that is replacing commodity markets as the preferred way to market farm output. Both consolidation and the development of supply chains offer the possibility of producing a greater variety of safer, cheaper food. The paper argues that farm policy, crafted for the agriculture of the 1930s, is no longer necessary to raise or stabilize farm incomes, and is largely ineffective anyway. Moreover, farm policy impedes the market forces driving innovation and efficiency in the farm economy. Letting market forces guide the evolution of the farm economy, unfettered by outdated government programs and unnecessary farm subsidies, is the best way to harness the benefits of the New Farm Economy. Getting rid of government subsidies and control will lead to dramatically fewer farmers in agriculture: a policy to deal explicitly with those who will leave agriculture is needed. A transition policy is described that focuses on helping reduce the number of farmers by offering a buyout to farm producers which subsidizes their exit from farming and prevents reentry.     

CONTROLLING STRAW BURNING: FARM MANAGEMENT MODELLING OF THE POLICY OPTIONS USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING

Autumn-sown cereals place pressure on post-harvest operations, particularly straw disposal. Burning is often a private solution but imposes external costs on others. Policy options to control burning include an outright ban, standard regulations, pollution taxes and transferable discharge rights. The effects of such options on farm income are assessed for an East of England cereals farm using a Linear Programming model. Results are sensitive to assumed straw yields, the market price of straw, and incorporation costs. Transferable discharge rights offer a flexible and efficient instrument to regulate straw burning at a non-zero level.     

Relative assistance to Australian agriculture and manufacturing since Federation

This paper quantifies the levels of assistance received by producers of the major agricultural crops and animal products in Australia since Federation and compares this with the level of assistance provided to manufacturing producers. First, we construct a series of the production‐weighted average nominal rate of assistance for the whole sector. Then, we compute a measure of the level of assistance received by the Agriculture sector relative to that received by the Manufacturing sector, the Relative Rate of Assistance. Our results show that, from the time of Federation until the 1990s, the economy‐wide pattern of industry assistance discriminated persistently and heavily against the Agriculture sector. The policy of ‘protection all round’ pursued by the Country/National Party did not prevent this discrimination. In particular, producers of exportables, such as wool and wheat, were heavily discriminated against. Both the intersectoral bias and the differences in assistance among agricultural producers lowered the incomes of the Agriculture sector and the national income.