北京奥运旅游的机遇、资源优势与发展对策

2008奥运将近,北京如何利用奥运大力发展旅游值得世人关注。本文在回顾奥运旅游对历届举办城市经济影响的基础上,阐述了奥运旅游是北京绝好的发展机会,进而提出北京奥运旅游的发展对策。     

DO GOOD OLYMPICS MAKE GOOD NEIGHBORS?

Most studies of mega-events such as Olympic Games find a relatively small impact on the cities that host them. One reason given for this finding is that the event displaces tourists who otherwise would have come to the city. This paper documents such displacement by showing that expenditure at ski resorts in Colorado rose as a result of the 2002 Winter Olympic Games. In addition to supporting previous studies, the spillover effect suggests that cities and states that gain from spillovers might want to support bids for events by nearby cities.     

The effects of mega-events on perceived corruption

In recent decades, the media have covered many cases of corruption related to the celebration of mega-events around the globe. In most of these cases, politicians and other high officials are involved. This paper analyses the effect of hosting mega-events on the level of perceived corruption in 34 OECD countries, during 1996–2017. Summer and Winter Olympic Games, FIFA World Cups, and Universal Expositions are considered. Results show that, when we take the year of the celebration of the event as the turning point, there is no robust evidence in favour of a positive impact on perceived corruption. However, when we take the election date of the host country as the threshold, the magnitude of the effect is lasting, reaching its maximum value 1–2 years before the celebration itself, and increasing the perceived level of corruption by about 4%.     

MEN, MONEY, AND MEDALS: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE OLYMPIC GAMES

Abstract.  Population size and the level of income per capita are major determinants of the number of medals won by a country in the 1952–2004 Olympic Games. A parsimonious count (Poisson) model fits the data very well: the squared correlation between the predicted value of the number of medals won and the observed value is about 56%. There exist strong country-specific effects in Olympic medals results. While the USA and China tend to outperform other countries relative to their size and income, the Asian dragons tend to under-perform in the Games.     

The Impact of Visibility on Trade: Evidence from the World Cup

Success in the FIFA World Cup provides countries with substantial international visibility. This paper uses this information shock associated with the World Cup to show that visibility has a significant impact on trade flows. In isolating the visibility effect, two identification problems are solved. Match outcomes in the World Cup are subject to significant uncertainty. This uncertainty, when combined with controls for economic development, makes World Cup success exogenous to exports. By contrast, hosting the World Cup is potentially endogenous owing to self‐selection issues. The paper exploits FIFA's host selection policy to construct exogenous instruments for hosting. The results show that success in the World Cup raises exports temporarily by around 5%.     

A longitudinal assessment on the economic effects of hosting major sporting events

Hosting major sporting events (MSEs) has become a globalized strategy for many countries. This paper is to incorporate event study and dynamic panel data analysis with annual secondary data to examine and clarify the long-term economic effects of host countries that had hosted the Asian Games and the Olympic Games from 1950 to 2014. The results indicate that hosting MSEs to create positive economic effects like the real economic growth rate, investment, employment and international trade may be a myth even for developing countries. The evidences can provide the sport management or authority with longitudinal and comprehensive elaboration for biding or hosting MSEs in the future.     

Winning the Olympic host city election: key success factors

This article examines 147 variables’ potential to discriminate successful from unsuccessful Olympic bids. Our stepwise, rank-ordered logistic regression model includes 10 determinants supporting the contention that economic, political and sports/Olympic factors are important for winning the host city election. IOC members favour cities if more than 2/3 of the population support the bid, but disfavour bidding cities of fewer than 2.5 million inhabitants and bids lacking a sufficient number of existing stadiums. Hosts are characterized by larger markets and higher medium-term growth economies. Olympic bids that follow a political liberalization are rewarded with additional votes.     

亚运会奖牌影响因素的实证研究

以第9-15届亚运会奖牌榜为样本,通过构建计量模型,从宏观角度对亚运会奖牌分布的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究发现：人口规模、经济实力对亚运会成绩有显著的积极作用;收入水平与亚运会奖牌数呈显著正相关,且存在二次倒U型曲线关系;东道主效应会促进主办国在亚运会上的成绩表现;相比资本主义制度,社会主义制度有利于取得更多的亚运会奖牌;文化上喜爱与重视体育运动的国家或地区亚运会成绩更好;东亚地区的亚运会表现显著优于其他亚洲地区。最后对我国实施正确的体育战略提出了建议。     

Is it the economy,stupid? The role of social versus economic factors in people’s support for hosting the Olympic Games: evidence from 12 democratic countries

Public referenda have gained momentum as a democratic tool to legitimize public mega projects such as hosting the Olympic Games. Interest groups in favour of hosting the Olympics therefore try to influence voters through public campaigns that primarily focus on economic benefits. However, recent studies find no or hardly any economic impact of hosting the Olympics, instead providing evidence for a positive social impact. This raises the question whether citizens consider economic or social factors when deciding on hosting the Olympics. Based on representative survey data from 12 countries, our results suggest that economic factors can influence voting behaviour, although the influence of social factors is stronger.     

Will the games pay? An event analysis of the 2020 summer Olympics announcement on stock markets in Japan,Spain, and Turkey

As a wealthy, highly developed city with many existing athletic facilities, Tokyo seems uniquely placed to profit from hosting the 2020 Olympics and boost the Japanese economy. We test this hypothesis using event analysis to determine whether the holding period return on Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 stock index showed abnormal returns following the IOC’s announcement that Tokyo would host the 2020 Summer Games. We use the same technique to investigate whether the stock markets in Madrid or Istanbul – the other finalist cities – showed abnormally low holding period returns in the wake of the announcement.     

What should you pay to host a party? An economic analysis of hosting sports mega-events

Governments all over the world put huge amounts of money into bidding for, and then hosting, sports events like Football’s World Cup or the Olympic Games. They also give money to professional sports teams and other mega-events to encourage them to locate within a particular constituency. This article examines the statistical relationship between tourism and three Football World Cups and five Olympic Games, finding very little positive effect. Given this conclusion, the article looks at why governments continue to bid for these competitions. It presents evidence that shows that these sports contests make people happy, and argues that politicians capitalize on this feel-good factor; harnessing the hubris associated with these events for political gain. The article then contends that the best way to reduce the politics associated with bidding for mega-events is to allocate them via an auction, rather than the wasteful rent-seeking methods that are currently used.     

奥运会与周边产业的关联效应分析

文章从产业关联理论的角度出发,对产业关联理论和奥运产业关联理论作了简要的阐述,在此基础上分析了奥运会对其周边产业的关联效应,主要包括奥运会对体育业、旅游业、文化业、金融业的关联效应。并对奥运会的产业关联度模型的优缺点进行了探讨,得出了不应该只注重奥运会的直接关联效应,还要充分考虑其完全关联效应的结论。     

Economic Development Indicators as Determinants of Medal Winning at the Sydney Olympics: An Extreme Bounds Analysis

This paper examines the variables that determine the performance of countries at the Olympic Games as measured by a weighted sum of the medals won at the Sydney 2000 Games. While previous studies have identified the importance of a country's economic size and the resources available to sport, this paper examines nine more variables including the number of athletes representing each nation and some development indicators. Based on 2310 regressions, both traditional and restricted extreme bounds analysis show that only two variables are robust: the number of athletes and national expenditure on health. Thus, the final model recognises four explanatory variables that include these two as well as GDP and population.     

Economic reforms and industrial policy in a panel of Chinese cities

We study the effect of place-based industrial policy on economic development, focusing on the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZ) in China. We use data from a panel of Chinese (prefecture-level) cities from 1988 to 2010. Our difference-in-difference estimation exploits the variation in the establishment of SEZ across time and space. We find that the establishment of a state-level SEZ is associated with an increase in the level of GDP of about 20 %. This finding is confirmed with alternative specifications and in a sub-sample of inland provinces, where the selection of cities to host the zones was based on administrative criteria. The main channel is a positive effect on physical capital accumulation, although SEZ also have a positive effect on total factor productivity and human capital investments. We also investigate whether there are spillover effects of SEZ on neighboring regions or cities further away. We find positive and often significant spillover effects.     

2008年北京奥运会对旅游产业的影响及对策研究

奥运会作为目前世界最大的全球体育赛事,必然会对举办国的旅游业乃至经济产生重大影响。奥运会对旅游市场的兴起、提升旅游形象、吸引旅游客源和创造旅游环境有一定影响。因此,中国旅游业在迎接2008年北京奥运会时应树立“大奥运”、“大旅游”的经济观念等对策与措施。     

奥运经济的负面影响及对策研究

奥运经济对主办城市和主办国经济的负面影响主要有：造成奥运前后经济剧烈波动;导致奥运会结束后奥运体育场馆的经营出现亏损;加剧地区经济发展和产业发展的不平衡;可能出现奥运赤字。为了有效降低和消除奥运经济的负面影响,主办城市和主办国政府应实施宏观调控政策,熨平奥运前后的经济波动;建立新型的社会化奥运投融资体制;严格控制奥运支出规模;大力发展体育和旅游等相关产业。     

Revisiting the Olympic Effect

By utilizing the log‐linear gravity model, other authors have found statistically robust, permanent and large effects of hosting mega‐events (e.g. Olympics) on international exports. Surprisingly, they found that the unsuccessful bidders to host the Olympics experienced a similar impact on exports. Utilizing alternate specification such as the Poisson pseudo‐maximum likelihood (PPML) estimation that allows for heteroskedasticity prevalent in trade data, the this paper fails to find a robust positive effect of hosting and bidding for a mega‐event on total aggregate exports. Under heteroskedasticity, the parameters of log‐linearized models estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) lead to biased estimates of the true elasticities.     

THE IMPACT OF STADIUM ANNOUNCEMENTS ON RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT IN DALLAS-FORT WORTH

We investigate the impact of a potential new sports venue on residential property values, focusing on the National Football League's Dallas Cowboys' search for a new host city in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. We find that residential property values in the city of Dallas increased following the announcement of a possible new stadium in the city. At the same time, property values fell throughout the rest of Dallas County, which would have paid for the proposed stadium. These patterns reversed when the Dallas stadium proposal was abandoned. Subsequently, a series of announcements regarding a new publicly subsidized stadium in nearby Arlington, Texas, reduced residential property values in Arlington. In aggregate, average property values declined approximately 1.5% relative to the surrounding area before stadium construction commenced. This decline was almost equal to the anticipated household sales tax burden, suggesting that the average expected amenity effect of hosting the Cowboys in Arlington was not significantly different from zero. ( JEL L83, R53, H73)     

From housing bust to credit crunch: Evidence from small business loans

This paper provides evidence that the 2007–2009 housing bust in the United States precipitated a “credit crunch” for small businesses. To remove demand‐driven correlations, we rely on within‐city comparisons. We ask whether banks whose mortgage portfolios were more heavily weighted in harder‐hit cities cut back lending to a greater extent in all cities where they make small business loans, relative to other banks in those cities. The evidence is consistent with a credit crunch. Large banks reacted with heavier cuts, but consistent evidence is also found among smaller banks. Quantitatively, the detected contribution to the overall decline in lending from the crunch appears modest.     

奥运后北京经济持续发展问题研究

奥运会与举办城市的经济发展存在一定的相关关系。本研究表明,北京具有非典型性奥运经济形态,同时又存在若干非奥运经济的矛盾,有必要通过引导投资与消费、调整结构、按照市场化模式开发利用场馆、深化科技体制改革、推动跨地区要素流动与重组等形式实现可持续发展。同时,对利益受损者加以补偿。