2012年:政策趋松下的资金紧平衡

流动性具备多层次特征,简单可以分为实体经济流动性、资金市场流动性和股票市场流动性。实体经济流动性,指央行货币供给量(或社会融资量)规模;资金市场流动性,包含拆借及债券市场资金供需格局及金融机构资金来源运用的匹配程度;股票市场流动性的定义界限并不清晰,可以通过股指变化、入场资金量、资产变现能力等来衡量。上述三方面的流动性相互关联,旨在平滑经济波动的货币政策影响实体经济流动性情况,引导资金市场量价变化,进而导致股市流动性预期变化。     

股市资金仍然充裕

1月份居民储蓄增速则放缓,表明股市对资金的吸引作用。中国股票市场流动性显著高于周边国家。股市对于居民储蓄存款的虹吸效果显著,未来1年内可能仍将有大量居民存款流入股票市场。A股市场资金宽裕。     

中国股票市场流动性的比较研究

本文根据股票买卖价差、有效价差、价格冲击指数、流动性指数、市场深度和大宗交易成本六个指标对中国股票市场流动性进行比较研究,研究表明:沪深两市的流动性均呈现出逐步改善的趋势.从流动性指数、市场深度及大宗交易成本上衡量,上海股市的流动性好于深圳股市,而从价格冲击指数及相对买卖价差衡量,深圳股市的流动性高于上海股市;与国际主要证券市场比较,沪深两市的流动性水平在新兴市场名列前茅,但低于全球平均水平.     

股票市场质量统计研究综述

伴随着我国股票市场的不断发展和成熟,股票市场质量问题越来越受到人们的关注,提升股票市场质量是保障股市健康、持续发展的基础条件.本文就股票市场质量的概念、统计范畴和统计框架等方面的当前研究成果进行综述,指出以流动性、波动性、有效性和透明性四个方面建立股票市场质量统计指标体系是比较好的选择.     

中国股市迫切需要双向交易机制

随着温和性通货膨胀的预期越来越成为民众对中国宏观的一种稳定性预期，货币流动性过剩导致的资金流向股票市场的趋势越来越明显。于是中国股市在这种资金流动性涌入效应下，不断的创出新高。8月的最后一个交易周，中国股市以5218点的近乎历史最高指数点位收盘。中国股市不断的创出新高，在没有外力的因素影响下，是很难破坏这种资金流动性推动股市上涨的格局的。[第一段]     

基于市盈率的我国股市泡沫分析

市盈率是被广泛用来测量股市泡沫风险的一个重要指标。根据“股票的理论价格应该是未来各期红利的贴现之和”这一传统金融理论，导出用以衡量股市泡沫成分的基准——合理市盈率的计算方法。通过分析发现市盈率的合理值是一个动态值，据此测量出的上海A股市场泡沫成分自1993年以来呈明显下降趋势，说明我国股票市场上的投资者日趋成熟，投资行为日趋理性。     

中国股票市场发展与经济增长之间关系的实证研究

本文根据批判现有研究在指标选择和分析方法应用上的做法的基础上,分别以融资规模、换手率和GDP实际增长率作为衡量股票市场规模、流动性和经济增长的指标,利用1992年第1季度至2010年第2季度的样本数据,通过Granger检验发现,在按照股票市场融资项目平均建设期选取的滞后阶数上,存在从股市规模到经济增长的单向Granger因果关系,也存在从经济增长到股市流动性的单向Granger因果关系.这一结果为股市发展促进经济增长的观点提供了有力的支持性证据.     

中国股票市场的发展:一个国际比较的视角

本文以在20世纪90年代建立的具有一定规模的13个转轨国家的股票市场作为比较对象,从规模、流动性、融资功能、投资回报以及股价的信息含量五个侧面和维度对中国股票市场的发展进行了评价,结果发现,中国股票市场在规模上远远大于其他转轨国家,但在衡量股票市场质量的流动性与回报功能指标上则呈现出区间特征,在2000年之前,中国与其他转轨国家相比占有明显的优势,而在2001～2005年的区间内,中国的优势开始递减。     

中国股市收益率与流动性指标之间的关联分析

股票市场的流动性和收益之间的关系一直以来都受到了学术界的广泛关注.在本文当中,我们通过Spearman相关系数和VAR模型的方法对我国股票市场的收益率和主要流动性指标进行了相关性分析.结果发现,我们所选取的几种流动性指标和收益率之间都存在着一定的因果关系,也就是说我国股市存在流动性溢价.     

中国股市迫切需要双向交易机制

随着温和性通货膨胀的预期越来越成为民众对中国宏观的一种稳定性预期,货币流动性过剩导致的资金流向股票市场的趋势越来越明显。于是中国股市在这种资金流动性涌入效应下,不断的创出     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.