Impact of institutional reforms and industry structural factors on market returns of emerging market rivals during acquisitions by foreign firms

This paper seeks to understand the joint impact of institutional reforms and industry structural factors on market returns earned by rivals in an emerging market during foreign acquisitions. We use a sample of 238 foreign acquisitions in India during the period 2004–2013 and find empirical evidence to support the notion that institutional reforms, foreign competition and business group competition positively impact the market returns of the rivals of acquired firms. Additionally, we find that the effects of foreign competition and business group competition on rivals’ market returns are shaped by the degree of institutional reforms in the industry, indicating that firms’ market returns in emerging markets during foreign acquisitions can be better understood through the incorporation of the joint role of industry structural factors and institutional reforms.     

Is the cure worse than the disease? The effect of emerging market MNEs on host country corruption

In recent years, there has been an exponential increase in the amount of foreign investment by emerging market multinational enterprises (EMNEs). While it has been debated whether EMNEs strengthen or weaken the institutions in host countries they invest in, the literature has paid limited attention to how EMNE investment impacts corruption in other emerging markets, one of the most significant destinations of EMNEs. Following Hoskisson et al. (2013), we categorize two types of emerging markets as targets of EMNE investment, a) low-income emerging markets and b) middle-income emerging markets, based on their institutional and market development. Building on the theory of firm-specific advantages (FSAs) and the institutional advantage (IA) of EMNEs, we reason that EMNEs enter foreign markets in accordance to where their skills and competencies can be effectively utilized, and this impacts corruption in the host country. We make two key arguments: (1) EMNEs predominantly use their IA in low-income emerging markets, which in the long term increases corruption in the host market, and (2) EMNEs predominantly use their FSAs to gain competitive advantage in middle-income emerging markets, which decreases corruption in the host market. Empirical analysis of Chinese outward FDI from the 2008-2018 period supports our hypotheses. Our research contributes to both the literature on EMNEs and corruption.     

The anatomy of financial crises: Evidence from the emerging ADR market

We study the anatomy of recent financial crises in Mexico, East Asia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina by investigating the efficiency and pricing of the emerging American depositary receipt (ADR) market. We use a non-parametric technique to test for persistent regime shifts in two basic structural relationships for ADR returns in 20 emerging countries — identified via arbitrage and capital mobility considerations — that should always hold in efficient and integrated capital markets. We find that those “normal” market conditions were instead often violated in proximity of financial crises: The law of one price often weakened (by 54% on average) and domestic sources of risk became more important (often by more than 100%) for many emerging ADRs. We also find the likelihood of these regime shifts to be related to proxies for uncertainty among investors, exchange rate volatility, trade linkages, and liquidity (but not stock market trends, currency devaluations, capital flight, or capital controls).     

Home country uncertainty and the internationalization-performance relationship: Building an uncertainty management capability

We analyze the impact of home country uncertainty on the internationalization-performance relationship of emerging market firms. Building on organizational learning theory and the institutional approach, we argue that internationalization has a positive impact on the performance of emerging market firms, and that this relationship is strengthened for firms based in emerging countries with higher corruption and political risk. The reason is that by being exposed to high levels of home country uncertainty in the form of political risk and corruption, firms develop an uncertainty management capability at home that helps them face the challenges of internationalization better. We also propose that this uncertainty management capability helps emerging market firms perform better outside of their home region. We test our arguments on a sample of 536 firms from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru.     

Are Foreign Institutional Investors Good for Emerging Markets?

Portfolio flows channelled via institutional investors were the most dynamic capital flows to emerging markets in the 1990s. We use an asymmetric information framework to derive five propositions about the effects of the activities of foreign institutional investors on emerging markets. We confront these propositions with existing empirical evidence on the financial sector of emerging markets and conclude that institutional investors do not automatically generate benefits for emerging markets. Therefore, capital account and financial market liberalisation needs to be accompanied by careful regulation.     

The persistence of emerging market equity flows

The portfolio flows of institutional investors have been found to be highly persistent across countries and individual investment funds. This paper investigates the source of this persistence in emerging market equities. We employ the decomposition methodology in NBER Working Paper no. 9079 (July 2002), which decomposes the persistence of flows into four components: (i) own-country, own-fund persistence (which might arise from informed trading within each country by individual funds); (ii) own-country, cross-fund persistence (which might arise from asynchronicities across funds); (iii) cross-country, own-fund persistence (which might arise from asynchonicities within a fund) and (iv) cross-country, cross-fund persistence (which might arise from other reaction lags—such as contagion—across both countries and funds). We find evidence that all four components are positive in emerging markets. Our results differ from those in developed countries, in that we attribute approximately 10–20% of total persistence to cross-country effects (iii) and (iv). These findings are consistent with stories of contagion, which suggest that demand shifts move predictably from one country to another. They cannot easily be explained by informed trading alone or by wealth effects.     

Flight-to-liquidity: Evidence from China's stock market

In an order-driven and strictly regulated stock market, illiquidity risks' effects on asset pricing should be highlighted, particularly in such extreme market conditions as those in China. This paper utilizes panel data from China's stock market in an attempt to answer whether the illiquidity risk in various dimensions—including price impacts, the transaction speed, trading volume, transaction costs, and asymmetric information—can explain stock returns. We find that almost all dimensions of stock illiquidity are positively associated with excess stock returns. More importantly, smaller, less-liquid stocks suffer more liquidity costs, providing a strong evidence for “flight-to-liquidity.” Additionally, the transaction costs and asymmetric information, denoted by bid-ask spreads, robustly account for these illiquidity effects on stock pricing and differ from the findings in the U.S. market. We also find that the “flight-to-liquidity” can partially explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle, investors' gambling, and herding psychologies. This study provides substantial policy implications in regulation and portfolio management for emerging markets.     

The fear of globalizing capital markets

It is generally accepted that free flow of goods benefits both economies without serious risks. The situation with the free flow of capital is different. Many policy makers and economists are skeptical not only about the benefits of free flow of capital, but also see uncontrolled capital flows as risky and destabilizing. Other economists, however, firmly believe that free capital flows will lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and greater economic growth. Nevertheless, the debate has little empirical evidence to rely on. We hope to fill that gap in this paper. We study the benefits and risks associated with capital flows by examining the experience of emerging economies around the time that foreign investment in stock markets was allowed. We investigate the impact of capital flows on stock returns, stock market efficiency, inflation, and exchange rates. We also examine the effect on different kinds of volatility that might arise as a consequence of capital flows: volatility of stock returns, volatility of inflation rates, and volatility of exchange rates. We find no evidence of an increase in inflation or an appreciation of exchange rates. Stock returns reflect a lower cost of capital after liberalization. There is no increase in stock market volatility and the volatility of inflation and exchange rates actually decreases. Stock markets become more efficient as determined by testing the random walk hypothesis.     

Corruption and cash holdings: Evidence from emerging market economies

We examine the effect of corruption on cash holdings and cash value using a panel data set of 4236 firms from 16 emerging market economies. We find that the cash holdings are positively related to the corruption and by managing their cash holdings upwards, the firms can benefit in the corrupt environment by trading cash. Furthermore, cash holding adds value to the firms. However, it is insignificant when the firms are operating in high corruption environment with low investor protection. Overall, the evidence suggests that corruption play an important role in shaping the cash policies of firms in emerging markets.     

Dismantling institutional complexity behind international competitiveness of emerging market firms

The paper examines the perceived role of emerging market institutions in the creation of firm‐specific advantages of local small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) supporting international expansion and competitiveness. Our objective is to deepen conceptual understanding of the complex link between emerging market institutional factors and an ability of emerging market SMEs to compete internationally. Our empirical evidence from Russian software SMEs operating in global niche markets reveals that managers perceive institutional influence on their firms' ability to compete internationally in a number of direct and indirect means. We find that, in addition to the well acknowledged negative impact of institutions, there are supportive and triggering forces that incentivize SMEs' international expansion and development of competitive advantages. We contribute to the literature by elaborating about the complexity of institutional influence on international competitiveness of emerging market SMEs. This research offers insights for managers about the prospects of international expansion of SMEs from emerging markets.     

Military regimes and stock market performance

We examine whether military regimes harm stock market performance by investigating stock returns in ten emerging markets under military and civilian rule. We find no evidence of military regimes having a significantly negative impact on stock returns. In the case of Thailand and Pakistan, we find a significant positive military return premium. These returns cannot be explained by economic cycles, stock market cycles, or returns volatility. Our findings are robust to worldwide stock market movements, tests for spurious regression bias and randomization-bootstrap tests. Our results contradict the common view that military rule has a negative impact on stock market performance.     

Does corruption increase emerging market bond spreads?

We study the relationship between corruption and borrowing costs for governments and firms in emerging markets. Combining data on bonds traded in the global market with survey data on corruption compiled by Transparency International, we show that countries that are perceived as more corrupt must pay a higher risk premium when issuing bonds. The global bond market ascribes a significant cost to corruption: an improvement in the corruption score from the level of Lithuania to that of the Czech Republic lowers the bond spread by about one-fifth. This is true even after controlling for macroeconomic effects that are correlated with corruption. We find little evidence that investors became more sensitive to corruption in the wake of the Asian financial crisis.     

Institutional voids,liability of origin,and presence of women in TMT of emerging market multinationals

This study examines the association between the pervasiveness of institutional voids in emerging markets and the inclusion of women in top management teams (TMTs) by emerging market multinational corporations (EMNCs) as a legitimation strategy. Leveraging institutional theory, we argue that EMNCs increase women presence in TMTs as a legitimation strategy to overcome the challenges of stakeholders' skepticism in foreign markets by disassociating themselves from the image of their home markets. Using a subsidiary level dataset of 1047 EMNCs from 26 emerging countries between 2009 and 2018, we find robust evidence indicating that the pervasiveness of institutional voids at home is positively related to the percentage of women in TMT's EMNCs' foreign units. This effect is particularly stronger for firms operating in countries with high institutional gender parity and low level of corruption.     

The Relative Importance of Domestic and Global Factors in Explaining Australian Stock Returns

In this study, we explore the relative importance of the several documented factors in explaining the behaviour of stock returns for a sample of 157 Australian companies over the period 1993–9. In line with prior evidence, we contend that the influence of global (market, industry and currency) factors is related to the extent of a firm's international activity. We find that Australian firms are in large part impacted by domestic factors with the level of sensitivity declining as the level of international activity increases. In contrast to prior literature, we also show that Australian firm returns are related to regional market, global industry and currency factors and the firm's sensitivity to these factors is an increasing function of its level of international activities.     

Home country institutional environments and foreign expansion of emerging market firms

We propose that home country institutional environment shapes emerging market firms’ foreign expansion. We argue that better-developed home country institutional environment promotes emerging market firms’ expansion to foreign markets more advanced than the home country, while institutional instability in the home country reduces this propensity. We further hypothesize that the effects of home country institutional environment are contingent on firm-specific government ownership. Data on the foreign expansion of 921 Chinese firms in the period of 1996–2000 provide strong support for the effects of home country's institutional development and institutional instability. We also find that a high degree of government ownership weakens the positive effect of home country's institutional development on emerging market firms’ propensity to expansion to more advanced markets.     

CEO gender,institutional context and firm exports

To what extent does the gender of Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) matter in the relationship between home country corruption and firm exports? Drawing on post-structural feminist and institutional theories, we employ self-reported micro-level and cross-country data from 4714 firms in 75 countries during 2008-2015 to examine how differences in institutional contexts affect firms exports in men- and women-led firms. We find that pervasive and arbitrary corruption types have different effects on firm exports, and that female CEOs mitigate the effects of corruption in two distinct ways. Our results contribute to institutional and post-structural feminist literature, and are robust when controlling for economic development and the quality of gender institutional characteristics. Our study suggests that female CEOs in developing and emerging economies will be less vulnerable to predictably-corrupt institutions than to uncertain institutions.     

Exploring the relationship between institutional factors and FDI attractiveness: A meta-analytic review

This meta-analysis attempts to synthesize and review decades of research on the relationship between institutional factors and host country foreign direct investment (FDI) attractiveness. Using prior tests derived from 97 primary studies, we find support for prior theoretical predictions that institutional factors such as political stability, democracy, and rule of law attract FDI, while others such as corruption, tax rates and cultural distance deter it. Further evidence suggests a need for exploration of moderating factors that may influence previous key findings. Specifically, environmental effects such as level of development, region of destination, and competitive industry environment have varying influence on the strength and significance of the relationship. We also explore a number of methodological and economic moderating variables, providing additional interesting insights into previous empirical analyses. We conclude with suggestions for future research that stress a call for further contextualization of the relationship.     

Commodity Markets and Commodity Mutual Funds

Fundamental economic factors—market demand and supply conditions—provide the most consistent explanation for trends in commodity prices from 2004 to 2011. This paper presents empirical evidence that the rise and fall of commodity prices on a monthly basis can be strongly linked to the value of the U.S. dollar and the world business cycle—in particular, to the strength or weakness in emerging market economies such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia. Despite concerns raised by some policymakers that increased commodity index investment (the financialization of commodities) has driven commodity price movements, numerous academic studies have concluded that index-based investing has not moved prices or exacerbated volatility in commodity markets in recent years. An examination of weekly and monthly net flows into commodity mutual funds reveals that these flows have little or no effect on the overall growth rate of commodity prices. In particular, weekly flows into commodity mutual funds do not lead to future commodity price changes. These results are consistent with academic papers that find little or no impact of commodity index investors on commodity prices in individual markets. The paper concludes by briefly discussing three key factors that illustrate why flows into commodity mutual funds cannot explain commodity price movements.     

Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets

Using data for 27 emerging equity markets for the period January 1992 through December 1999, we document the behavior of liquidity in emerging markets. We find that stock returns in emerging countries are positively correlated with aggregate market liquidity as measured by turnover ratio, trading value and the turnover–volatility multiple. The results hold in both cross-sectional and time-series analyses, and are quite robust even after we control for world market beta, market capitalization and price-to-book ratio. The positive correlation between stock returns and market liquidity in a time-series analysis is consistent with the findings in developed markets. However, the positive correlation in a cross-sectional analysis appears to be at odds with market microstructure theory that has been empirically supported by studies on developed markets. Our findings regarding the cross-sectional relation between stock returns and liquidity is consistent with the view that emerging equity markets have a lower degree of integration with the global economy.     

The impact of civil war on foreign direct investment flows to developing countries

We investigate the impact of civil war on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries. We employ a new data-set that disaggregates FDI inflows to primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. Second, we control for a richer set of economic and institutional variables that could determine FDI inflows including population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, the degree of trade openness, exchange rate variability, inflation, the governance structure of the host country using International Country Risk Guide data and its regime type using the POLITY autocracy–democracy data. We also address the reverse causality between FDI and conflict and the potential endogeneity of explanatory variables by employing dynamic system generalised method of moments (GMM) techniques in estimation. Our results indicate that primary sector FDI flows to developing countries are not significantly affected by civil war, whereas secondary and tertiary sectors FDI are more sensitive to such outbreak, potentially leading to reversals of existing FDI. Among institutional variables, government stability and control of corruption are more significant compared to regime type, law and order, and bureaucratic quality.