Ex-dividend Day Pricing in New Zealand

Controversy continues over the question of tax clientele effects in the pricing of shares that pay dividends. The empirical results remain inconclusive, with variations in testing methods and sample formation the probable causes of much of the variation in outcomes. This study focuses on testing for the presence of a tax clientele effect consistent with prior tests for the same effect using a sample from a particular tax regime period in New Zealand in which companies could pay either or both taxable and non-taxable dividends. The results are generally consistent with the presence of a tax clientele effect in the New Zealand market for the time period, while providing essentially no support for the short term trading hypothesis.
JEL classification: G10; G15     

Governance regulatory changes,International Financial Reporting Standards adoption,and New Zealand audit and non‐audit fees: empirical evidence

This study examines the association between overseas and New Zealand governance regulatory reforms and New Zealand companies’ audit and non‐audit fees. Our models use temporal and International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) indicator variables to relate the timing of the fee changes to the incidence of the overseas and local reforms. We find that audit fees increased in New Zealand over 2002–2006. Such increases associate reliably with the transition to and adoption of NZ IFRS and not with earlier overseas governance reforms. Our study also documents a decrease in non‐audit fees over the same period, but we find no IFRS effect for non‐audit fees.     

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation

We estimate a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using Bayesian methods. Our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK. We consider generic Taylor-type rules, where the monetary authority reacts in response to output, inflation, and exchange-rate movements. We perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates. The main result of this paper is that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand do not, whereas the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule. This result is robust for various specification of the policy rule. We also find that terms-of-trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles.     

Odd‐lot Costs and Taxation Influences on Stock Dividend Ex‐dates

Abstract:   Past research has revealed significant abnormal ex‐date returns for stock dividends even though the ex‐date is known in advance and the distribution contains no new information. Various researchers have suggested that the higher transaction cost of selling odd‐lot share parcels compared to round‐lot share parcels is a key driver in the abnormal returns. However, no study to date has directly compared the ex‐date price reaction of stock dividends distributed when odd‐lot transaction costs were charged to those issued when odd‐lot costs were not evident. As odd‐lot trade costs were eliminated from the New Zealand Stock Exchange on 1 October, 1991, the New Zealand market provides a unique opportunity to directly test the role, if any, that odd‐lot transactions costs have in explaining stock dividend ex‐date returns. We find that prior to October 1991 stock dividend ex‐dates exhibit significantly positive returns, however, we do not find any significant ex‐date return once the higher odd‐lot transaction costs were removed. The New Zealand market also enables us to examine an imputation tax based argument of the ex‐date price reaction and we find evidence that imputation tax credits have a value greater than zero.     

A New Zealand failure prediction model: Development and international implications

In this study we develop a failure prediction model for New Zealand listed companies and theorise on the usefulness and international implications of the results. In developing the model, we obtained data from 60 failing and 60 matched non failing New Zealand listed companies, providing an unusually rich database for model development. Binary logistic regression (logit) was applied on 21 potentially significant variables. The predictive strength was tested using holdout tests, with support from applications to more recent company data. Multicollinearity was minimised through a theoretically informed selection of variables, the Pearson correlation and stepwise regression. The resulting model is significant to 91.7% overall, which tested well for prediction and non-multicollinearity, and reveals a unique combination of variables. We conclude by considering the research implications of small-market model development, and the benefits of local, contextually-based models as evidenced by the results of this study.     

Derivatives Usage and Financial Risk Management in Large and Small Economies: A Comparative Analysis

The objective of this paper is to expand and update previous New Zealand — based surveys in order to compare and contrast risk management practices of firms in the small, foreign trade-dependent economy of New Zealand to those of firms in the considerably larger, more developed US, UK, and German markets. This survey examines patterns of usage, reasons and objectives for derivatives use, and reporting and control procedures and finds that the practice of hedging with derivative instruments among New Zealand firms appears to be evolving as global markets become more integrated. We find that the percentage of firms involved in hedging, both large and small, has grown since the last New Zealand surveys, and that New Zealand firms have many of the same reasons and objectives for using derivatives as firms in the much larger American and European economies. We also find that the focus on control and reporting derivatives transactions in New Zealand is similar to that of firms in the other countries and appears to have strengthened since previous surveys.     

Is technical analysis profitable on a stock market which has characteristics that suggest it may be inefficient?

This paper considers the returns to technical analysis on the New Zealand stock market. The small nature, short-selling constraints, lack of analyst coverage, and loose insider trading regulation suggest that the New Zealand equity market may be less efficient than overseas markets. This raises the possibility that technical analysis is still profitable in New Zealand. Using a bootstrapping technique with common null models for stock returns and 12 popular technical trading rules, we find that the returns to technical analysis in New Zealand follow a similar pattern to those in large offshore markets. Technical analysis is no longer profitable.     

A comparative analysis of the Australian and New Zealand liquidation schemes

On September 28, 2022, Australia announced an inquiry into the effectiveness of its corporate insolvency laws. The Australia and New Zealand corporate insolvency frameworks have similar objectives and operate in a similar context where, as is the case the world over, most companies are small to medium enterprises. Despite liquidation being just one of several collective and formal corporate insolvency procedures, it is the most frequently occurring procedure in both countries by a large margin. The Australian and New Zealand liquidation schemes have many similarities but also some key differences. Differences include the structure of the respective schemes; the levers prompting liquidation of companies in appropriate circumstances; the role of creditors, the court and the regulator; and the management of low-value and assetless liquidations. These differences are analysed to determine what, if anything, the New Zealand scheme might contribute to development and/or reform of Australian corporate insolvency law. As consistency and coordination with Australian insolvency law is a New Zealand policy aim, the lessons the Australian scheme might have for New Zealand are also considered. Many of the points on which the Australian and New Zealand liquidation schemes differ are of universal concern (such as the management of low-value liquidations), meaning that the nature and success (or otherwise) of the Australian and New Zealand responses are of wider, comparative interest.     

Due Process and the Adoption of IFRS IN New Zealand

This paper reviews the decision to adopt IFRS in New Zealand and the subsequent decisions made on implementation of adoption. The emphasis of the review is on due process. The paper outlines the current regulatory structure for financial reporting in New Zealand, describes how the decision to adopt IFRS was made, and evaluates the due process followed in making the decision to adopt IFRS and in implementation of the decision. We conclude that the limited due process followed in making the decision to move to IFRS and in developing each New Zealand standard was adequate. However, the method adopted for converting international standards to New Zealand standards did not go through sufficient due process.     

The effect of more rules‐based guidance on expense disclosure under International Financial Reporting Standards

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are often described as principles‐based; however, we show that IFRS and Australian pre‐IFRS expense‐related standards are more rules‐based than pre‐IFRS expense disclosure in New Zealand. Thus, we examine expense disclosure in New Zealand and Australia around IFRS adoption to provide evidence on the effect of more or less rules‐based standards on voluntary disclosure. First, we add to the rules versus principles‐based standards debate by finding higher voluntary expense disclosure under more rules‐based standards (e.g. IFRS). This contrasts with expectations, as we would expect fewer voluntary disclosures under more rules‐based standards as there would be fewer possible voluntary disclosures. Second, we document that New Zealand firms have significantly less voluntary expense disclosure than size‐ and industry‐matched Australian firms in both the pre‐ and post‐IFRS period. However, all measures of expense disclosure significantly improved post‐IFRS for New Zealand, whilst little change occurred for Australian firms. Thus, there is greater financial statement comparability across these countries post‐IFRS, but not full harmonization. Third, we show that the relationship between most firm characteristics and expense disclosure is weaker post‐IFRS. In addition, cross‐listed firms and loss‐making firms have a higher level of expense disclosure, as contrasted with firms in the investment and property industry which have a lower percentage of unspecified expenses but also report fewer voluntary expenses.     

The Impact of the FMA Guidelines on Non‐GAAP Earnings Disclosures

In 2012 the New Zealand Financial Markets Authority (FMA) introduced guidelines for the disclosure of non‐GAAP financial information. This study investigates the effect of those guidelines on New Zealand listed companies. The findings show that, despite not being mandatory, these guidelines are modifying corporate disclosure behaviour. Companies have improved the way in which they disclose non‐GAAP earnings information and there has been a reduction in the emphasis given to non‐GAAP earnings compared with the emphasis given to audited statutory profit. However, the study also highlights areas for improvement, including the depth of explanation of non‐GAAP earnings calculations and adjustments, and concern about multiple adjusted earnings figures to explain performance.     

Monetary policy and covered interest parity in the post GFC period: Evidence from the Australian dollar and the NZ dollar

After the global financial crisis (GFC), most major currencies had higher interest rates than the US dollar on forward contract because of increased demand for the US dollar as international liquidity. However, unlike the other major currencies, the Australian dollar and the NZ dollar had lower interest rates than the US dollar on forward contract in the post GFC period. The purpose of this paper is to explore why this happened through estimating the covered interest parity (CIP) condition. In the analysis, we focus on a unique feature of Australia and New Zealand where short-term interest rates remained significantly positive even after the GFC. The paper first constructs a theoretical model where increased liquidity risk causes deviations from the CIP condition. It then tests this theoretical implication by using daily data of six major currencies. We find that both money market risk measures and policy rates had significant effects on the CIP deviations. The result implies that unique monetary policy feature in Australia and New Zealand made deviations from the CIP condition distinct on the forward contract.     

A Note on the Predictability of Financial Distress in New Zealand Listed Companies

Multiple discriminant analysis is applied to financial ratios of New Zealand listed companies and a model developed which exhibits better classification ability than other New Zealand-based models. The predictive ability of the New Zealand model is tested on a hold-out sample of listed companies and performs reasonably well for predictions close to the point of failure.     

INVESTMENT DECISION CRITERIA USED BY LISTED NEW ZEALAND COMPANIES

This paper reports the results of a survey of listed New Zealand firms with regard to their investment objectives, their methods of evaluating investment projects and of estimating appropriate hurdle rates, and methods used to evaluate and adjust for project risk differences. Comparisons with similar studies of firms located in the U.S. and Australia indicate that New Zealand firms use accepted normative financial analysis techniques to a much lesser degree than firms in these other countries. The relatively greater usage of accounting-based rather than market-based measures by New Zealand firms is particularly marked.     

A change in market microstructure: the switch to electronic screen trading on the New Zealand stock exchange

The New Zealand Stock Exchange (NZSE) switched from open outcry trading to an electronic screen trading system on June 24, 1991. The change was made by the members of the exchange to improve the trading system and to reduce costs. This paper investigates empirically whether improvement was achieved through a reduction in transaction costs. The tests and results focus on order-flow migration to the exchange from alternative execution locations and changes in bid-ask spreads. On balance, we conclude that transaction costs have declined.     

ANNUAL REPORT RESOURCE COMMITMENT AND DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS IN AUSTRALASIA

In April 1978 a mail questionnaire was administered to 1230 Australian and 215 New Zealand public companies to solicit annual report resource commitment and distribution patterns. Summarized responses indicate that Australian annual reports for year ended 1977 cost A$2.98 per copy on average to produce and mail, while New Zealand reports for the same period cost NZ$2.50. More than half of these costs is attributable to the printing component. Australian companies employed 99 manhours on average in the preparation and distribution of their reports, while New Zealand companies employed 130 manhours. Eighty percent of all reports distributed by Australian companies were sent to shareholders, while 70 percent of all reports distributed by New Zealand companies were sent to this group.     

Making sense of New Zealand’s ‘spirit of service’: social identity and the civil service

ABSTRACT

This paper explores the creation a more unified civil service in New Zealand with the Public Service Act 2020, which promotes the most profound changes to the public service since New Zealand’s New Public Management heyday in the late 1980s. Among its many reforms is an explicit attempt to foster a unified culture around a ‘spirit of service to the community’—a construct without fixed definition that appears to incorporate ideas of motivations and ethics. This paper shows that this unified culture can be traced through a series of key collaborative discussions that have taken place among New Zealand’s public sector chief executives. The authors present a case study to show how these collaborations contributed to a new social identity, and provided a foundation for a civil service unified by its spirit of service to the community. The paper contributes to this PMM theme by providing empirical evidence from the latest New Zealand experience; and also contributes to theory of social identity and sensemaking in creating civil service values.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses

Our study sets out to assess the accuracy of profit forecasts made by IPOs in Hong Kong. We use a variety of measures and tests to examine the accuracy, bias, rationality, and superiority of earnings estimates. The results show that forecast accuracy compares favourably with the findings from the developed economies of Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand. Forecasts are shown to be superior to the predictions from time series models. IPOs tend to underforecast in the sense that actual profits exceed the forecasts. The rationality tests show mixed results. Cross-sectional analyses of forecast accuracy have poor explanatory power although the Big Six reporting accountants are associated with smaller forecast errors.     

Public Choice and Accounting Standard Setting in New Zealand: An Exploratory Study

Recent studies in accounting regulation have used either the capture argument or the pluralistic notion to describe the enactment of accounting regulations. This paper explores the nature of the impact of public choice in accounting standard setting in New Zealand using the pluralistic notion. To provide an insight into the standard-setting process, this paper involves an examination of the establishment, withdrawal and re-establishment of New Zealand's most controversial standard after current cost accounting — the standard on investment property accounting (SSAP 17). The investigation considers the nature of public choice in the agenda entrance, demand and supply factors influencing standard setting in New Zealand. The results indicate that the New Zealand accounting standard-setting process is pluralistic in a limited way. Like most other English-speaking countries, the scope of participation for certain groups has been institutionalized on the supply side by way of membership of standard-setting committees of the New Zealand Society of Accountants. On the demand side, however, consumers of accounting have been provided with only limited scope for participating in the formal process of standard setting. Nevertheless, other means (i.e., exogenous and informal ones) may be used to influence the process. Overall, from both the demand and supply perspectives of regulation, the Big-8 accounting firms (as they were previously known) followed by the preparers of financial statements, seem to have greater participatory capacity in the New Zealand standard-setting process.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses

Our study sets out to assess the accuracy of profit forecasts made by IPOs in Hong Kong. We use a variety of measures and tests to examine the accuracy, bias, rationality, and superiority of earnings estimates. The results show that forecast accuracy compares favourably with the findings from the developed economies of Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand. Forecasts are shown to be superior to the predictions from time series models. IPOs tend to underforecast in the sense that actual profits exceed the forecasts. The rationality tests show mixed results. Cross-sectional analyses of forecast accuracy have poor explanatory power although the Big Six reporting accountants are associated with smaller forecast errors.