EFFECTS OF LABOR REALLOCATION ON PRODUCTIVITY AND INEQUALITY—INSIGHTS FROM STUDIES ON TRANSITION

From a theoretical perspective, the link between the speed and scope of rapid labor reallocation and productivity growth or income inequality is ambiguous. Do reallocations with more flows tend to produce higher productivity growth? Does such a link appear at the expense of higher income inequality? We explore the rich evidence from earlier studies on worker flows in the period of massive and rapid labor reallocation, that is, the economic transition from a centrally planned to a market-oriented economy in CEE. We have collected over 450 estimates of job flows from the literature and used these inputs to estimate the short-run and long-run relationship between labor market flows, labor productivity, and income inequality. We apply the tools typical for a meta-analysis to verify the empirical regularities between labor flows and productivity growth as well as income inequality. Our findings suggest only weak and short-term links with productivity, driven predominantly by business cycles. However, data reveal a strong pattern for income inequality in the short run—more churning during reallocation is associated with a level effect toward increased Gini indices.     

The macroeconomic implications of corruption in the choice to educate

Educational corruption is a worldwide phenomenon, yet its macroeconomic implications are largely unknown. We formulate a fixed-price bribe model to explore the impact educational corruption may have on growth, income inequality and other factors. When using aggregate ability as our measure of growth, our model produces a v-shaped relationship between growth and corruption, suggesting that corruption is detrimental to growth at lower levels of bribery, but growth enhancing at greater levels. A cross-section of countries is used to empirically test our model and provides qualitative support for our modeling structure. Distributional analysis reveals that an increased prevalence of corruption leads to greater income inequality and reduces the ability of education to signal quality.     

Growth and inequality: Dependence on the time path of productivity increases (and other structural changes)

This paper examines the significance of the time path of a given productivity increase on growth and inequality. Whereas the time path impacts only the transitional paths of aggregate quantities, it has both transitional and permanent consequences for wealth and income distribution. Hence, the growth-inequality tradeoff generated by a given discrete increase in productivity contrasts sharply with that obtained when the same productivity increase occurs gradually. The latter can generate a Kuznets-type relationship between inequality and per-capita income. Our results suggest that economies with similar aggregate structural characteristics may have different outcomes for income and wealth inequality, depending on the nature of the productivity growth path.     

Global estimates of growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle: evidence from World Bank’s classification countries

This study extended the concept of ‘growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle’ by using the principle component approach which allows us to composite different poverty and inequality indicators into one single index that contains most of the useful information from the original dataset. Using the idea of GIP triangle, this study examines the long-run relationship among weighted poverty index (which comprises headcount ratio, poverty gap and squared poverty gap); weighted inequality index (i.e., Watts Index, Gini Index and MLD Index) and average monthly per capita income in the designated 138 countries according to World Bank’s classification over a period of 2005–2010. The data set mainly contain countries’ unit record household survey at least one which is conducted between the countries during the sample period. The regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty reflects that income inequality increases poverty while economic growth decreases poverty. It indicates that the impact of inequality in increasing poverty is a somewhat greater than that of growth in average income in reducing overall poverty in a sample countries. The other regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and poverty on income inequality showed that the poverty itself is also likely to be a barrier for poverty reduction; and inequality seems to predict lower future growth rates. The final regression model depicting the impact of poverty and income inequality on mean income of the household suggests that poverty itself reduces mean income of the household while income inequality increases economic growth. The results are interesting and simply suggest that whenever social institutions malfunction, the incidence of damage would usually be distributed unevenly over the society’s members.     

Effects of international sharing of pollution abatement burdens on income inequality among countries

Improvements in environmental quality will boost output production and hence economic growth. However, although environmental abatement equally benefits all economies in the world, it is shown that, if the private productive resources are not yet accumulated sufficiently in low income economies, income inequality among economies can be widened in the short term not only under equal burden sharing of pollution abatement but even under income-proportional burden sharing. When the marginal productivity is diminishing, the negative effect of the burden is large relative to the positive effect of the improved environment in economies in which resources are not accumulated sufficiently.     

Spatial growth with exogenous saving rates

Economic growth has traditionally been analyzed in the temporal domain, while the spatial dimension is captured by cross-country income differences. Data suggest great inequality in income per capita across countries, and a slight but noticeable increase in inequality across nations between 1960 and 2000. Seeking to explore the mechanism underlying the temporal evolution of the cross sectional distribution of economies, we develop a spatial growth model where saving rates are exogenous. Capital movements across locations are governed by a mechanism under which capital moves toward locations of relatively higher marginal productivity, with a velocity determined by the existing stock of capital. This augments the capital accumulation equation by a nonlinear diffusion term. Our results suggest that under diminishing returns, the growth process leads to a stable spatially nonhomogeneous distribution for per capita capital and income in the long run. Insufficient savings may lead to the emergence of persistent poverty cores where capital stock is depleted in some locations.     

DOES FDI ACTUALLY AFFECT INCOME INEQUALITY? INSIGHTS FROM 25 YEARS OF RESEARCH

While there are 25 years of empirical research on how FDI may affect income inequality, there is surprisingly no consensus on this issue. In this paper, we conduct a meta-analysis on the effect of FDI on inequality using 543 empirical studies from 1995 to 2019. Among various factors, we find that the development level of the study country has the strongest influence on the direction in which FDI affects income inequality. When the primary studies are sorted into three groups based on the GDP per capita of their sample areas, the within-group estimates on the effect of FDI on income inequality become strongly consistent with each other. Particularly, we find that FDI is associated with higher inequality for the low-income group, has no statistically significant effect for the middle-income group, and is associated with lower inequality for the high-income group. This observation suggests that FDI may increase income inequality as a country initially develops, but reduce inequality as development deepens.     

Income risk, macroeconomic and demographic change, and economic inequality in Japan

Using an OLG model with heterogeneous households, we investigate the relationship among income risk, macroeconomic and demographic changes, and economic inequality between 1980 and 2000 in Japan. By decomposing the primary factors in earnings and consumption inequality into macroeconomic variables and the demographic variable, we find that our model replicates the evolution of economic inequality in Japan. By performing counterfactual simulations, we demonstrate that two factors—changes in time-varying macroeconomic factors and the unexpected decline in the total factor productivity growth rate—played important roles in the increase in earnings and consumption inequality in the 1990s.     

Wage inequality and the labor market impact of economic transformation: Croatia, 1970–2008

In this paper, we examine wage inequality and wage differentials in Croatia from 1970 to 2008 using two long aggregate time series on the distribution of income. We focus especially on changing income inequality related to educational and vocational attainment, changing income inequality within those groups, and how these two components of inequality were affected by the economic transformation from socialism to capitalism. We find that income inequality between groups rose moderately post-transformation, while overall inequality increased more sharply. This finding is consistent with a growing importance of individual rather than group productivity in labor market compensation, a change broadly consistent with the economic transformation of the Croatian labor market.     

Linkages between income inequality,international remittances and economic growth in Pakistan

This paper explores the dynamic linkages between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth using time series data over the period of 1976–2006 in case of Pakistan. The cointegration analysis based on the bounds test confirms the existence of a long-run relationship between income inequality, international remittances and economic growth. Our results reveal that income inequality and international remittances enhance economic growth. The causality analysis based on innovative accounting approach shows bidirectional causal relationship between income inequality and economic growth and same is true for international remittances and income inequality. International remittances are cause of economic growth but not vice versa. Although we find support for Kuznets hypothesis but Pakistan is yet to benefit, in terms of reducing the gaps of income inequality, from the international flow of remittances and economic growth. The paper argues that, from a policy perspective, there is an urgent need for policy makers in Pakistan to reduce the widening gap of income inequality by focusing on income redistribution policies and to go beyond the traditional factors in balancing income inequality.     

Does income inequality lead to banking crises in developing countries? Empirical evidence from cross-country panel data

This study empirically examines whether increasing income inequality results in banking crises using panel data for 68 countries covering the years 1973 to 2010. The results show that developing countries with high inequality tend to have higher levels of domestic credit and that domestic credit booms increase the probability of banking crises. We also find that developing economies display direct channels from inequality to banking crises without an association with credit booms. We find no consistent evidence that income inequality contributes to banking crises in advanced economies. In developing countries, the probability of banking crises increases dramatically as income inequality levels increase: The probability of a systemic banking crisis within three years is 9.5% when the Gini is as low as 0.2 in developing countries and increases to 57.4% when the Gini is 0.4. These results are robust to several specifications.     

Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross‐Country Evidence

Abstract.  This paper studies the links between macroeconomic adjustment and poverty. The first part summarizes some of the recent evidence on poverty in the developing world. The second reviews the various channels through which macroeconomic policies affect the poor, whereas the third is devoted to the specific role of the labor market. It presents an analytical framework that captures some of the main features of the urban labor market in developing countries and studies the effects of fiscal adjustment on wages, employment, and poverty. The fourth part presents cross‐country regressions linking various macroeconomic and structural variables to poverty. Higher levels and growth rates of per capita income, higher rates of real exchange rate depreciation, better health conditions, and a greater degree of commercial openness lower poverty, whereas inflation, greater income inequality, and macroeconomic volatility tend to increase it. Moreover, the impact of growth on poverty appears to be asymmetric; it seems to result from a significant relationship between episodes of increasing poverty and negative growth rates.     

Re-examining the relationship between economic growth and inequality in the New Member States

The link between income inequality and economic growth has raised many debates in the literature and has generated a large spectrum of results over time. This paper aims at analyzing the relationship between economic growth and income inequality, as well as their macroeconomic and institutional determinants in the New Member States, between 2000 and 2009. In the presence of a set of explicative variables, the economic growth influences the social inequality through a U-shaped relationship. Health, education and gross capital formation generate different direct and indirect effects on income inequality as the per capita GDP growths, while the transition indicators are found to be either common or specific determinants of inequality and growth.     

Has Federal Student Aid Contributed to Equality in Higher Education?

ABSTRACT. TO analyze the effect of federal student aid on the structure of the higher educational system, an index of inequality of access is developed It measures the differences in the distribution of income of entering students , as compared to the U S distribution of income at thirteen different categories of institutions Its application shows that structural inequality exists in the nation's system of higher education and that while some improvements occurred in the 1970s, especially at the bottom of the system, by 1986 most of these gains had been eliminated When these indices were regressed against per capita federal student financial aid , relative student costs , and variables reflecting changes in the larger economy, using time series data, the aid variables show little or no statistical effect on the structural inequality of the nation's system of higher education, as measured by the index of inequality On the other hand, the cost variable generally has strong effect The general economic variables occasionally have significant effect     

The consequences of pandemic-driven inequality

• ▀ According to our analysis, the Covid-19 pandemic is likely to exaggerate global inequality, leading to more aggregate debt among lower earners and higher savings for those at the top. The surge in savings will raise demand for safe assets, which would put downward pressure on long-term government bond yields - already depressed from a chronic shortage of safe assets.
• ▀ Historically, pandemics can trigger a rise in inequality, even over medium-term periods. Pandemics damage confidence in using in-person services, which disproportionately exposes low-skilled work to displacement. A unique feature of this pandemic is that the ability to work from home is proving a key factor in determining job losses - those that can are typically in higher paid jobs.
• ▀ The poorest households spend more of their income on essentials such as housing and basic food. When their incomes fall, they still have to spend on these essentials and so are often forced to take on debt. Conversely, the richest often consume near maximum capacity, so any additional income goes into savings to support future consumption.
• ▀ Higher aggregate savings would, all else equal, drive up demand for safe assets and therefore lower interest rates. Other factors such as weak nominal GDP growth, demographics and a chronic shortage of safe assets will also contribute to keeping yields depressed over the next five years.

     

行业生产率、行业发展速度和行业收入增长——基于SVAR模型的研究

运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,对中国1978年至2009年农业、制造业、金融业收入增长的内在机制进行研究,结果表明:农业收入对生产率和发展速度冲击的反应是发散式反馈效应,生产率与农业发展速度的变化导致农业收入有一个较小且短期的收入增长,之后农业收入出现大幅度的波动;制造业收入对生产率和发展速度冲击的反应是一个收敛式反馈效应,制造业生产率与发展速度可以稳定地长期地提高制造业收入水平;金融业生产率与行业发展速度引起行业收入长期大幅度的波动,金融衍生工具可以在一定程度上克服波动的负面影响。     

Understanding Income Inequality in China: A Multi-Angle Perspective

Economic reforms have brought about spectacular growth and vast improvements of people’s living standards in China since 1978. In the meantime, unbalanced regional growth and income inequality have become two important concerns of future development. Most available studies on income distribution have either focused on the rural population or on the urban citizens. This paper stresses the importance of adopting a multi-angle approach to fully understand income inequality in China. We first use some top-down information to form a general picture of inequality for the whole country, and then use some bottom-up household survey data to explain in detail the development of inequality over time regarding rural/urban inequality, rural inequality, urban inequality and inter-regional inequality, the relative importance of different income sources to overall inequality. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

北京市居民收入差距发展规律与结构特征的实证研究

本文选取1985—2007年的时间序列数据,对23年间北京市居民的收入差距演变规律进行分析,侧重于城镇居民收入差距、农村居民收入差距、以及城乡居民收入差距三个层次,并在对时间序列数据分析基础上,对收入差距的发展趋势进行判断。研究认为,北京市居民收入差距变化大致经历了三个阶段,即差距较小—差距扩大—差距稳中有降;居民收入差距一直存在,但以1993年为节点,之后出现大幅度上升态势;2003—2007年,居民收入差距整体呈现稳中有降的趋势,但降幅不大。对收入差距内部结构的分析显示,23年间,城镇居民收入差距水平小于农村居民收入差距。     

Productivity, convergence and policy: a study of OECD countries and industries

This paper analyses trends in labour productivity and its underlying determinants in a panel of OECD countries from 1979 to 2002. Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to estimate a Malmquist measure of multifactor productivity (MFP) change. We decompose the growth in labour productivity into (i) net technological change (ii) input biased technical change (IBTC) (iii) efficiency change and (iv) capital accumulation. We analyse the effect of each of these factors in the transition towards the equilibrium growth paths of both labour productivity and per capita GDP for the OECD countries, controlling for the effects of different policies and institutions. The results indicate that on average gaps in productivity or income levels are narrowing down although there is no evidence to suggest that the entire OECD area comprises a single convergence “club”. Using kernel estimation methods we find that that labour productivity and per capita GDP are settling toward a twin peak (bimodal) distribution. Panel unit root tests over an extended (1960–2001) period provide general support for the convergence hypothesis. Analysis of the contributions of productivity growth within industries and sectoral composition changes show that aggregate productivity change is predominantly driven by ‘net’ within sector effects with very little contribution emerging from sectoral shifts (the ‘in-between’ static or dynamic effects resulting from higher or above average productivity industries gaining employment shares or low productivity industries losing shares).     

FACTORS OF INTERREGIONAL INCOME INEQUALITY IN POSTWAR JAPAN: THEIL DECOMPOSITION AND GAP ACCOUNTING ANALYSES

This study empirically identifies some factors of interregional income inequality in postwar Japan during the period 1955–2005 using a decomposition analysis with a Theil L index and a gap accounting analysis. One major empirical finding was that interregional inequality in per capita GDP during the period 1955–2005 showed a double peaked M‐shaped curve, which was predominantly attributed to interregional inequality in labor productivity. The sectoral decomposition analysis revealed that the factors that caused fluctuations in interregional inequality in labor productivity differed from year to year. The fluctuations during the period 1960–1980 were caused by an intersectoral equilibrating process between the tertiary sector and other sectors, whereas that the fluctuations that occurred in the late 1980s and early 1990s resulted from interregional disequilibrating and equilibrating processes within the tertiary sector.