Income distribution dynamics across European regions: Re-examining the role of space

This paper is aimed at exploring the role played by space on the dynamics of regional per capita income disparities in Europe between 1980 and 2005. To do that, an analysis based on the so-called distribution dynamics approach is used as benchmark. Therefore, the external shape of the per capita income distribution and movements within it are examined using both continuous and discrete techniques. This first approach reveals that regional disparities across European regions have decreased over time and, based on the computation of a mobility index, also highlights the existence of a medium mobility degree within the distribution. Subsequently, a spatially conditioned distribution dynamics approach is developed to adequately assess the spatial dimension of the convergence process. In this new approach per capita income of each region is doubly conditioned on its per capita income and the per capita income of its neighbours, both in a previous period. Additionally, a novel mobility index on the basis of a spatial Markov chains approach is devised. The results illustrate the importance of geography in explaining regional per capita income evolution; in particular it is shown that poor regions surrounded by rich regions have a much higher probability of escaping the poverty trap than other poor regions.     

The public sector and convergence with spatial interdependence: empirical evidence from Spain

We propose a framework to analyse convergence between regions, incorporating the public sector and technological knowledge spillovers in the context of a Neoclassical Growth Model. Second, we apply novel estimation methods pertaining to the spatial econometrics literature introducing a spatial Durbin panel data model based on instrumental variables and maximum-likelihood estimation. Our model makes it possible to analyse, in terms of convergence, the results obtained in Spanish regions with the policies implemented during the period 1980–2011. The results support the idea that education and fiscal policies have a positive effect on regional development and cohesion. Therefore, we can conclude that it is possible to obtain better results for regional convergence with higher rates of public investment in education and tax revenues. We also obtain interesting results that confirm the existence of spillover effects in economic growth and public policies, identifying their magnitude and significance.     

Assessment of regional productive performance of European health systems under a metatechnology framework

Within last seventy years, healthcare spending in Europe has grown faster than national income. However, this does not always translate into good health indicators, suggesting a problem of efficiency in different European health systems. This paper analyzes the efficiency of such systems for 185 European regions in 17 countries by grouping them into three clusters according to their institutional setting: regulation, funding and service provision. We investigate their productive performance by adopting a metafrontier framework for exploring the role of technological spillovers. Our findings suggest that the three European health systems show similar efficiency performance; the best performers are regions that have adopted social healthcare insurance; kernel analysis indicates that there is convergence toward a single club in each frontier. Finally, we find a dramatic change in the convergence process after the nancial crisis, with European regions converging toward different groups with different levels of efficiency.     

Aggregate economic fluctuations and regional convergence: the Finnish case 1988-95

This paper analyses the connection between aggregate economic fluctuations and regional productivity convergence in Finland during the period 1988–95. Markov chain transition matrices and mobility indices were used to examine the regional distribution of productivity. The results indicated that high intra-distribution mobility occurred during booms, when regional convergence potential was also at its highest. Conversely, recession years were characterized by much lower mobility and a more divergent regional pattern. These findings bear important implications in terms of regional policy planning, as it seems that poor regions do not manage to keep up with the rich ones during slumps, whereas regional disparities diminish naturally during boom years.     

Labour's reward across regions of the EU: a distributional dynamic approach

A large number of empirical studies have tested for the presence of convergence for a variety of economic variables. This paper examines the evolution of labour's reward across regions of the EU to identify whether factor price convergence has occurred. Density diagrams are used to illustrate static distributions while transitional matrices are employed to identify movements of the distribution over time. The results presented suggest that the evolutionary paths of average regional pay are fairly stable with stratification and persistence identified as important characteristics. There was uninterrupted convergence of average regional pay between 1980–1992. However, between 1992–1994 this process reversed.     

The effects of integration on regional disparities: Convergence, divergence or both?

This paper offers an explanation for the coexistence of convergence across countries and the lack thereof at the regional level in the European Union. The model shows that, even if it accelerates growth and brings convergence across countries, the intensification of international knowledge spillovers due to more cross-country interaction may exacerbate within-country regional disparities, if regions with different specialization do not benefit evenly from the exchange of knowledge. The empirical evidence supports the implications of the model. In particular, the data show that regions specialized in advanced sectors at the beginning of the sample period became more similar in terms of per capita income, while regions specialized in traditional sectors lagged.     

Regional policy design: An analysis of relocation, efficiency and equity

Despite substantial regional expenditure at both national and community level, European regional policies do not appear to deliver. Evidence suggests that neither efficiency gains nor reduced regional inequalities result. If there is any positive impact at all, then it is at most a redistributional one. If transfers are mainly redistributional in nature, would policies based on non-distortionary financing be a better route to follow? We consider the alternatives to a distortionary regional policy that forces the delocation of activities. Are non-distortionary policies always relatively more efficient than distortionary ones? We analyse these questions employing a new economic geography model, which also takes into account the importance of knowledge spillovers for productivity, industry location and policy. We show that the effectiveness of different regional policies depends on (i) intra-industry knowledge spillovers, (ii) inter-industry knowledge spillovers and (iii) trade costs. Our analysis suggests that the European approach to the elimination of regional inequalities may, relatively, be the more costly alternative.     

Asymmetric volatility spillovers between the U.K. regional worker flows and vacancies

This article investigates volatility spillovers between the U.K. regional job finding, job separation and vacancy rates. Employing a large Bayesian logistic smooth transition vector autoregression model, we find high volatility spillovers between the U.K. regional labour markets. Analyses of net spillovers show that, in general, shocks to job separation rates tend to spread into job finding and vacancy rates, while vacancy rates are usually at the receiving end of shocks transmitted from the job separations and job findings. To shed further light on the shock propagation mechanism, we also look into more detailed matters such as the differences in spillovers between regions within the same regime, and that of the same region but in different regimes.     

Data Feature: Earnings Biases in the United Kingdom Regional Accounts: Some Economic Policy and Research Implications

Between the late 1970s and late 1980s, the UK Regional Accounts data suggest a much smaller rise in the South East earnings premium and consequently a much smaller increase in the regional dispersion of earnings than do the other sources of data. We discuss several possible explanations for this discrepancy and conclude it was probably due to problems at the Inland Revenue in allocating tax records across the regions. The historical unreliability of the Regional Accounts has implications for economic research on regional consumption and convergence and may have caused the poorest regions to miss out on EU Structural Funds.     

Environmental performance,innovation and spillovers. Evidence from a regional NAMEA

The achievement of positive Environmental Performance (EP) at national level could strongly depend on differences in regional features, namely productive specialization, regulation stringency and innovation capabilities of both public institutions and the private business sector. We present empirical evidence for a newly released NAMEA available for the 20 Italian regions in order to demonstrate the role played by sector innovation, regional spillovers and environmental policies. The Italian North–south divide regarding industrial development and productive specialization patterns seems to affect regional EP. Nonetheless, such a pattern presents some interesting differences, revealing a more heterogeneous distribution of emissions which may reflect the role of other driving forces. In particular, agglomerative effects seem to play a major role and the EP of neighboring regions influences the regional internal EP. This means that together with the spatial concentration of specific sectors into restricted areas, there is also some convergence in the adoption of cleaner or dirtier production process techniques. Finally, interregional technological spillovers are more important than sector internal innovation for improving EP, revealing that accounting for spatial features and linking ecological economics to regional economics are crucial in understanding the key drivers of EP.     

Spatial heterogeneity and interregional spillovers in the European Union: Do cohesion policies encourage convergence across regions?

Using a spatial econometric perspective, the speed of convergence for a sample of 163 regions of the European Union (EU) over the period 1981–1996 is estimated. For this purpose, we use a specification strategy which allows an explicit modeling of both spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation found in the analyzed sample. The estimated final model combines groupwise heterocedasticity, the identification of two spatial regimes and spatial dependence. Our results show how an appropriate consideration of the role of spatial effects can shed new insights into the European convergence process. We find that regions in the EU cohesion-fund countries (Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain) are converging separately from the rest of regions of the EU. Our estimations indicate that over the analyzed period, there was a faster conditional convergence in relative income levels of the regions belonging to Cohesion countries (5.3%) than in the rest of the regions of the EU (3.3%). Therefore, our results contrast with other evidence that points to the fact that the convergence process in Europe has weakened or even has stopped at the beginning of the 1980s. Moreover, our work shows clear evidence of separate spatial convergence clubs among EU regions.     

Multinationals, Technology Upgrading, and Wages in Urban and Rural Indonesia

The author examines whether foreign direct investment has an effect on regional disparities in a developing country. For this purpose, the author compares the magnitude of productivity and wage spillovers derived from foreign presence to local firms in different locations. Using plant-level panel data for Indonesian manufacturing in 1990–95, the study finds supporting evidence for the hypothesis that the effects of foreign presence on the level and growth of productivity and wages in locally owned plants are greater in regions where multinational corporation affiliates tend to have a higher concentration as compared to other regions in the same province. The findings indicate that spillovers occur locally and diffuse to neighboring regions in part, and thus that the concentration of foreign direct investment in a certain region imparts a greater positive externality on one hand, and negatively affects regional disparities on the other.     

On `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers

An influential literature argues that trade promotes knowledge flows and technology transmission between trading partners. This literature focuses on `direct' research and development (R&D) spillovers which are related to the levels of R&D produced by the trading partners. In this paper, we argue that `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers also take place between countries, even if they do not trade with each other. These `indirect' spillovers are associated with available rather than with produced levels of R&D. Our empirical results suggest that these `indirect' trade-related spillovers are at least as important as the `direct' ones, and strengthen the view that trade does matter for the international transmission of R&D. They also suggest that, due to the existence of these `indirect' effects, bilateral trade patterns are relatively less important determinants of the level of foreign R&D spillovers acquired through trade.     

A spatially filtered mixture of <Emphasis Type="Italic">β</Emphasis>-convergence regressions for EU regions, 1980–2002

Assessing regional growth and convergence across Europe is a matter of primary relevance. Empirical models that do not account for structural heterogeneities and spatial effects may face serious misspecification problems. In this work, a mixture regression approach is applied to the β-convergence model, in order to produce an endogenous selection of regional growth patterns. A priori choices, such as North–South or centre-periphery divisions, are avoided. In addition to this, we deal with the spatial dependence existing in the data, applying a local filter to the data. The results indicate that spatial effects matter, and either absolute, conditional, or club convergence, if extended to the whole sample, might be restrictive assumptions. Excluding a small number of regions that behave as outliers, only a few regions show an appreciable rate of convergence. The majority of data show slow convergence, or no convergence at all. Furthermore, a dualistic phenomenon seems to be present inside some States, reinforcing the “diverging-convergence” paradox. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Regional economic performance in China1

This paper investigates convergence patterns among China's provinces using GDP data for the period 1952–97. We analyze convergence behaviour on the basis of Markov chains proposed by Quah (1993 ) and the generalized entropy decomposition proposed by Shorrocks (1980, 1984 ). Both sets of results show similar evidence of convergence within the pre‐defined geo‐economic sub‐regions, but no evidence is found of convergence between the sub‐regions. This finding has important policy implications for regional economic development in China. JEL classification: C33, E20, O47.     

Simulating the prospects of technological catching up

Local increasing returns associated with static and dynamic scale effects, knowledge spillovers, polarization effects and the distance that separates different regions are among the most important driving forces behind the dynamics of economic and technological convergence. This paper puts forward a computational simulation model that seeks to integrate these factors. The modelling exercise was designed in order to achieve a better understanding of the relationship between the aspects underlying the specific trajectories of regional technological accumulation and the aggregate convergence/divergence patterns stemming from these trajectories. In particular, the role of history and geography in the dynamics of technological convergence is emphasized.     

Are Indian States Converging in the Post-Reform Period?: An Empirical Inquiry

This paper studies the convergence phenomenon for 23 states of India for the period 1981 to 2001. The decades of the 1980s and the 1990s has been studied separately to comment on the convergence behaviour in the pre reform and post reform period. In addition to that of per capita SDP, convergence of per capita output emanating from the agriculture, industry and the services sector has been analysed to get a deeper insight. Both sigma (σ) convergence and beta (β) convergence have been examined. The study finds absence of sigma (σ) convergence and unconditional beta (β) convergence of per capita NSDP both in the 1980s and 1990s. However, conditional beta (β) convergence estimates reveal that the poorer states are catching up with their richer counterparts in the 1990s. The panel GMM estimates reveal that Indian states converged to their steady state output at a higher rate in the 1990s compared to the 1980s. At the sectoral level, Industry had a higher speed of convergence than agriculture in both decades. Further, divergence rather than convergence is observed for the services sector in both decades.

     

Regional convergence-and divergence-in the US

Previous studies on regional convergence in the US have employed varied methodologies and yielded different conclusions. Some authors report evidence that convergence has grown stronger in recent decades, while others find recent years have seen an end to convergence. We test for convergence with a method that allows for structural change. We find, first, that there is little overall evidence for convergence within the US. Results also indicate a series of positive breaks in the 1980s, indicating movement away from convergence was pronounced during this decade. Diverging housing costs may have played a role in limiting convergence.     

收敛还是发散?--中国区域经济发展争论的文献综述

本文考察了 1 980— 2 0 0 1年间中国地区经济差距的演变趋势 ,并对地区差距的形成渊源、未来发展战略的相关文献做了综述 ,最后提出了相应的政策建议。基尼系数的分解结果表明 ,中国地区经济的总体差距在 2 0世纪 80年代有所下降 ,但在 90年代却呈上升趋势 ,地区经济的总体差距主要来自沿海和内陆地区的差距 ,在各地区内部不存在所谓的俱乐部收敛。经济、地理、历史等多种因素使沿海地区处在了比较高的发展起点上 ,地区发展战略、全球化、经济自由化 ,要素市场的扭曲相互交织 ,对地区差距的形成产生了重要的影响。地区差距的缩小是一个长期任务。中央政府必须采取有效措施引导各地区推行区域经济协调发展战略     

Convergence as a heterogeneous process: what can be learnt about convergence in EMU from regional experiences?

We augment the existing literature on regional convergence by uncovering a number of stylized facts on the heterogeneity of regional convergence processes in the absence of currency devaluation as a key policy instrument, and use them to highlight reform strategies that are most likely to be conducive to a successful catching-up of the periphery countries of EMU. We show that regional convergence processes in Europe were extremely heterogeneous, highly discontinuous and strongly concentrated during the last two decades. These stylized facts question the focus of the traditional literature on average (β-)convergence and suggest substantial nonlinearities in regional convergence processes that have yet to be understood in detail. Our results further suggest that growth strategies based on increasing human capital investments and innovation capacities are the most likely to be successful in triggering convergence of lagging regions in currency unions.