The demographic effects of income redistribution and accelerated economic growth revisited

The statistical basis of Winegarden's conclusions, i.e., that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes in a typical low-income country would cause a substantial increase in fertility, was examined in detail in that it casts doubt about the validity of all previous econometric studies based on international cross-sectional data. Winegarden's model is reproduced as are his findings. The reexamination of Winegarden's (1984) findings revealed 3 areas which suggest that his conclusions may require modification. In regard to family planning, Winegarden's results indicated that the introduction of a state-supported family planning program would cause a large decline in natality after about a decade. A much weaker relationship emerged when the fertility equation was recomputed using a more appropriate economic method. Further, the results were highly sensitive to changes in the threshold year used to classify countries with regard to family planning programs. It is argued that a qualitative index devised by Mauldin and Berelson (1978) provides a more reliable way to measure the effects of such programs than the binary variable Winegarden used. The use of this index fundamentally altered the findings regarding economic growth and income distribution. According to Winegarden's calculations, faster economic growth would have a pronatal impact in the more economically advanced nations yet help to reduce fertility for those countries in the early stages of development. In contrast, it was found that variations in the rate of economic growth had no discernible impact on natality. Winegarden's results suggested that an egalitarian redistribution of incomes would cause substantial increase in fertility in a typical low-income country, but it was found here that these distributional effects would be fairly modest over a wide range of incomes. Consequently, it appears that any concern about the demographic effects of greater equality in less-developed countries is not well-founded. The potential for reducing natality in the richer nations by means of income redistribution may be overstated by Winegarden's results.     

Progressive Taxes and the Labour Market: Is the Trade–off Between Equality and Efficiency Inevitable?

Does an income tax harm economic efficiency more the more progressive it is? Public economics provides a strong case for a definite ‘yes’. But at least three forces may pull in the other direction. First, low–wage workers may on average have more elastic labour supply schedules than high–wage workers, in which case progressive taxes contribute to a more efficient allocation of the total tax burden. Second, in non–competitive labour markets, progressive taxes may encourage wage moderation, and hence reduce the equilibrium level of unemployment. And third, if wage setters have egalitarian objectives, progressive taxes may reduce the need for redistribution in pre–tax wages, and hence increase the demand for low–skilled workers. This paper surveys the theoretical, as well as the empirical literature about labour supply, taxes and wage setting. We conclude that in a second best world, the trade–off between equality and efficiency is not always inevitable.     

Regional patterns and determinants of birth and survival of new firms in Western Germany

This paper documents and assesses the economic performance of metropolitan technology centres in the USA during the business downturn of the early 2000s. We find that many of the USA's leading high-technology centres have performed at or near the national average, but that some of the nation's most prominent technology centres have fared poorly during the downturn, including Silicon Valley. The main factors that accentuated economic decline in technology centres during the recent recession include: a poorly diversified overall economic base; limited diversity within high-technology industries; relatively high (all industry) wages; and high levels of venture capital funding during the end of the ‘boom’ period of the late 1990s. We find that counter to some of the recent literature on regional development and knowledge-based industry clustering and networking, the rules of regional economic development have not changed dramatically with the so-called ‘new economy’. High-technology regions, just as ‘traditional’ industry regions over the past century, are vulnerable to pronounced economic cycles of growth and decline. The cycles can be particularly pronounced if regional economies are not well diversified and labour costs are not moderated during economic downturns. We also find that venture capital can exaggerate rather than moderate regional economic cycles, such as economic growth years in the USA from the late 1990s to the recession of 2001. The model suggests that free-flowing venture capital dollars may result in an over reliance on these funds, at the expense of a sound business model with sustainable growth and reasonable cash flow. Also, business networks associated with venture capital fund flow might be detrimental at critical economic turning points, often resulting in a rush of dollars in a limited business sector, rather than a diversified set of entrepreneurial ventures.     

Impacts of Reduced Gaming Exports on the Economy of Nevada

Previous studies of gaming have not calculated numerically the negative, economy-wide impacts on the Nevada economy from potential expansion of the gaming industry outside of the state. This study uses a state-level, two-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Nevada to investigate such impacts. In the Nevada CGE, both commodity prices and factor prices are endogenously determined and the impacts on major economic variables such as output, employment, and government revenue are estimated. Three different model variants are specified. Each variant is based on different assumptions regarding intersectoral and interregional factor mobility to analyze model sensitivity. Results show that the impacts on Nevada of the nationwide expansion of gaming could be significant under reasonable assumptions about factor mobility for Nevada. Also, results for total regional output and total government revenue are found to be very sensitive to the alternative factor mobility assumptions.     

Voting on road congestion policy

This paper studies the political economy of urban traffic policy. A city council and a regional government (representing city and suburbs) decide respectively on parking fees and a road toll. Both charges are below the optimum when median voters in city and suburbs prefer cars to public transport sufficiently more than the average. Even if the city government would set an optimal road toll, the regional government blocks it when the median suburban voter prefers cars strongly enough. Letting the city control parking and road pricing may therefore increase chances of adoption of the latter. However, if the city controls parking and the region road pricing, the combined charges are higher than if the city controlled them both. Hence, when voters want all charges below the optimum, the involvement of two governments may be desirable. We also find that earmarking road pricing revenues for public transport is welfare-enhancing, compared to lump-sum redistribution, only if they are topped up by extra funds granted to the city by a higher level of government.     

Non-cooperative pollution control in an inter-jurisdictional setting

This paper examines various circumstances under which decentralized pollution policies can be efficient both in federal settings and in multi-region settings with labor mobility. We consider a model in which pollution control policies are set by regional governments non-cooperatively and pollution damages are borne by the residents of all regions. We characterize the efficiency of pollution policies, and of population allocation among regions, in a variety of scenarios, including when pollution policies are enacted before interregional transfers are determined by the federal government and before migration occurs; when migration decisions are taken before policy decisions; in the absence of a central government if regional governments can make voluntary interregional transfers; when decisions over pollution control policies are followed by voluntary contributions by regions to a national public good; when regions can commit to matching the abatement efforts of each other; and when regions can commit to specific levels of abatement contingent on the emissions of other regions not exceeding some maximum level.     

Redistribution and regional development under tax competition

This paper considers how capital tax competition affects transfer and development policies in the presence of regional income disparity. In each country, development policies determine the number of rich (poor) regions that (do not) engage in production activities, while transfer policies redistribute income between rich and poor regions. The mix of transfer and development policies is inefficient under tax competition: conditional on the equilibrium tax rate, too much revenue is spent on development policies and too little on transfer policies. This analysis of the expenditure mix implies that development policies are used as a means of regional redistribution even if transfer policies are efficient instruments for this purpose. Moreover, it is shown that the overall level of public expenditure may be too high because of the possibility of over-development.     

Transfer Payments without Growth: Evidence for German Regions, 1992–2005

After German reunification, interregional subsidies accounted for approximately 4% of gross fixed capital investment in the new federal states (i.e. those which were formerly part of the German Democratic Republic). We show that, between 1992 and 2005, infrastructure and corporate investment subsidies had a negative net impact on regional economic growth and convergence. This result is robust to both the specification of spatially weighted control variables and the use of instrumental variable techniques to control for the endogeneity of subsidies. Our results suggest that regional redistribution was ineffective, potentially due to a lack of spatial concentration to create growth poles.     

Income distribution and well‐being: what can we learn from subjective data?

Abstract. How does the income of others affect my own welfare? This survey of the empirical literature stresses the contribution of subjective data to the understanding of this issue, with an attempt to disentangle direct effects (preference interdependence) from indirect informational effects. It shows that perceived mobility is central to the link between other people's income and individual satisfaction, as it determines individual opportunities and risks. Agents also appreciate the egalitarian nature of mobility itself, so that individual welfare depends on dynamic inequality rather than static income distribution. These studies illustrate how subjective data can bring information on aspects of utility and social interactions that are beyond the scope of the method based on action‐revealed preferences.     

Fiscal centralization versus decentralization: Growth and welfare effects of spillovers, Leviathan taxation, and capital mobility

This paper develops an endogenous growth model with spillovers of public goods, Leviathan taxation, and mobile capital to examine the relative merits of centralized and decentralized fiscal systems for economic growth and social welfare. We show that a decentralized system dominates a centralized system in terms of economic growth; however, the difference in social welfare between a decentralized and a centralized system is non-monotonic and displays a hump-shaped relationship with respect to capital mobility. Since higher capital mobility induces stronger tax competition, this finding implies that there is an optimal degree of tax competition; some tax competition is desirable, but fierce tax competition may be harmful. We also show that there is a critical level of spillovers of public goods above which centralization dominates decentralization in terms of social welfare, as in previous studies; however, if spillovers are below this critical level, capital mobility also matters in the welfare comparison between centralized and decentralized systems.     

VOTING, INEQUALITY AND REDISTRIBUTION

Abstract.  This paper surveys models of voting on redistribution. Under reasonable assumptions, the baseline model produces an equilibrium with the extent of redistributive taxation chosen by the median income earner. If the median is poorer than average, redistribution is from rich to poor, and increasing inequality increases redistribution. However, under different assumptions about the economic environment, redistribution may not be simply rich to poor, and inequality need not increase redistribution. Several lines of argument are presented, in particular, political participation, public provision of private goods, public pensions, and tax avoidance or evasion.     

Robust Non‐nested Testing for Ordinary Least Squares Regression when Some of the Regressors are Lagged Dependent Variables*

The problem of testing non‐nested regression models that include lagged values of the dependent variable as regressors is discussed. It is argued that it is essential to test for error autocorrelation if ordinary least squares and the associated J and F tests are to be used. A heteroskedasticity–robust joint test against a combination of the artificial alternatives used for autocorrelation and non‐nested hypothesis tests is proposed. Monte Carlo results indicate that implementing this joint test using a wild bootstrap method leads to a well‐behaved procedure and gives better control of finite sample significance levels than asymptotic critical values.     

Provisioning health care infrastructure in communities: Empirical evidences from West Bengal,India

We developed a framework to reinvigorate communities in terms of public health care infrastructure provisioning for outpatient needs within the neighborhoods. The health care seeking episode is often influenced by the physical and health care infrastructure availability within the neighborhood, need of the health care seeker as well as personal, household, occupational, and latent perception of the users. This empirical study has been developed for two different groups in West Bengal India, firstly based on location and secondly based on the choice of the health care seeker. In case of resident based approach, we focused on the revisit decision of the rural inhabitants who sometime tend to travel to the regional facilities in urban areas. Facility based approach analyzed the people who were at the regional facilities for health care services. We devised scenarios ascertaining improvisation in service delivery, emergency facility and mobility ease at local public facilities might reduce regional tours and instigate higher utilization of the neighborhood health care facility. We develop integrated choice and latent variable models to incorporate latent perception in choice of scenario for instigating revisit decision. Results showed choice of development scenarios have association with the household structure, social network, locational and infrastructural impedance. This framework lead to two distinct outcomes: (1) method to identify programs, those are essential to by initiate_revisit_to the health care facility (2) perception based assessment of the current mobility and health care infrastructure of the region, which could be instrumental in developing the overall health care infrastructural planning policy as a whole.     

Does immigration increase labour market flexibility?

The question we investigate empirically in this article is whether immigration makes the labour supply in the receiving country more responsive to regional differences in economic opportunities. The main merit of the paper is that we examine three stages in the regional mobility of refugees and labour immigrants: First, the settlement pattern of newly arrived immigrants, second, their subsequent mobility between regions and, third, their eventual exit from the regional labour market to abroad. The analyses apply to immigrants who arrived in Norway from 1995 to 2004. In all three stages, mobility is investigated with regard to its responsiveness to regional differences in wages and unemployment. The main finding is that, in all three stages, the geographical mobility of immigrants is sensitive to regional economic opportunities. In that sense, immigrants do “grease the wheels” of the labour markets, through all the three stages of mobility. The most robust results are found for regional unemployment differences. With regard to natives, we generally do not find any strong evidence for “greasing the wheels” effects.     

2SLS and OLS in a spatial autoregressive model with equal spatial weights

The paper considers a Cliff–Ord type spatial model with a spatially lagged dependent variable and a row normalized weighting matrix with equal weights. We show that the 2SLS and OLS estimators are inconsistent unless panel data are available. The weighting matrix in question is one which would naturally be considered if all units are neighbors to each other, and there is no other reasonable or observable measure of distance between them.     

Personal and regional redistribution through public finance in a federal setting

Following a partial equilibrium approach, this paper studies the effect of fiscal policy on income distribution in Argentina, based on budget information corresponding to the year 2004. Specifically, it aims to provide an empirical answer to a set of questions related to the responsibility of different levels of government (national or provincial) in ensuring the equitable distribution of income; how this responsibility is accomplished in practice, when this function is shared among two or more levels of government; whether an incompatibility arises among the policies from different levels of government; and the effect of fiscal policy on personal and regional income distribution.The main results of the paper are summarized as follows. At the aggregate level, both national and provincial budgets have a redistributive impact on personal income distribution, through a combination of progressive expenditures and (slightly) regressive taxes. Regional redistribution depends on two fiscal tools: the national budget and the revenue sharing regime. The progressive effect of expenditures and taxes interacts with the geographical effect of the revenue-sharing and the national budget, reinforcing progressivity in net-receiving groups and creating a trade-off between progressivity and (negative) regional transfer in net-financing ones. Provincial budgets have more impact than the national budget, both being compatible in pursuing the redistributive goal.     

From Bismarck to Maastricht: The March to European Union and the Labor Compact

This paper considers the likely impact that European Union (EU) will have on the labor compact. It is argued that, despite increased economic integration in Europe, countries will still be able to maintain distinct labor practices if they are willing to bear the cost of those practices. The incidence of many social protections probably already falls on workers. In addition, it is argued that imperfect mobility of capital, labor, goods and services will limit the pressure that integration will place on the labor compact. Evidence is presented suggesting that labor mobility among EU countries has not increased after the elimination of remaining restrictions on intra-EU labor mobility in 1993. Moreover, immigration from non-EU countries, which is much larger than intra-EU migration, has declined since 1993. Evidence is also reviewed suggesting that the demand for social protection rises when countries are more open, and therefore subject to more severe external shocks. This finding suggests that increased economic integration and European Monetary Union (EMU) could lead to greater demand for social protection. The U.S. experience with state workers' compensation insurance programs is offered as an example of enduring differences in labor market protections in highly integrated regional economies with a common currency.     

THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF EXPORTS IN DETERMINING LEVELS OF REGIONAL OUTPUT AND INCOME: A Model and Empirical Evidence from Kenya

Exports have long been assumed by many to be the most important variable in driving regional growth, although factors such as government expenditure, investment demand, and remittances, among others, have also been recognized as significant. In addition, supply-side constraints to the promotion of regional growth and development have recently received increased attention in the literature. This paper evaluates the relative importance of exports, investment demand, and remittances, as well as supply-constrained agricultural production, in determining levels of regional output, value added, and household income in a single region in Kenya. The analysis is based on a mixed endogenous/ exogenous model derived from a social accounting matrix (SAM) which allows for incorporation of both demand and supply-side considerations. The paper finds that exports are, in fact, the most important factor in explaining regional output and wage income in the region studied, although not overwhelmingly so. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the importance of supply-constrained agricultural production as a determinant of income at the household level.     

ACCESSIBILITY AND THIRD WORLD RURAL DEVELOPMENT: A Case Study of Sumatra*

Road and transport service improvements are widely recognized as important catalysts to economic development in most third world countries. When integrated with other programs which create new employment opportunities, roads and bus services enable subsistence farmers to seek off-farm salary-earning jobs. This paper examines the relationship between accessibility and economic well-being using data from rural Sumatra in Indonesia. The research relies on multiple indicators of both measures. Households in more remote rural villages are found to average appreciably lower levels of consumption expenditures. When isolated from subregional market and trade centers, consumption levels fall dramatically. The research also shows that the average value of farm produce increases with road quality, frequency of bus service, and close proximity of commerical centers. Thus, agriculture productivity is linked to both transport supply and spatial proximity factors. Additionally, the analysis shows that off-farm earnings increase when migrant households have access to both motorcycles and bicycles. Loans and subsidies for purchasing such “low tech” vehicles as bicycles, scooters, and micro-buses could prove more beneficial to many rural villagers than capital-intensive road projects. Lastly, the research suggests that the siting of transmigration settlements within reasonable proximity to regional and subregional market centers is important if the planned villages are to develop trade linkages and experience sustained economic growth.