The role of controls in the international financial crisis

The impact of the great financial crisis that started in the United States with the implosion of “subprime” loans has drawn the public’s attention on one of the most innovative branches of financial market, the famous derivatives. The financial crisis and the involvement of major banking institutions thus call for some thinking about the concept of control in Italy and in a globalized world. In Italy, even though the scale of the risks connected with transactions in derivatives is limited, some banks may have damaged their reputations by pushing complex derivative products onto unwitting clients. Apart from reassurance and all kinds of justifications, and without arguing whether this was deliberate or not, the monetary authorities, Consob, and ABI have clearly reported the risk of a world financial crisis too late.

Knowledge growth, complexity and the returns to R&D

The introduction of a production function of technology embodying laws of returns to research and development (R&D) is now standard practice in growth theory. This paper offers a critical evaluation, in the light of a generalized N–K model, of some recent contributions suggesting foundations for the existence of laws of returns to R&D. It is argued that such contributions fail to analyze the way in which research and development activity in the technological and scientific domains affect the dimension, the hierarchic structure and the complexity of knowledge search spaces. In the attempt at moving some analytical steps in this direction, this paper considers the possibility that modularity effectively counters the rise in complexity which would follow from idea growth and the increasing number of potential interactions between component ideas. It is argued that the force of the modularity argument finds its limits in the face of radical innovations that are general purpose, but entail a deconstruction and reconstruction of the hierarchy of technological interactions. It is also suggested that niche creation and knowledge spillovers elicit the early development and subsequent diffusion of such radical innovations.

Price,private demand and optimal provision of public R&D investment: An application to Italian agriculture, 1960–1995

The current paper presents a model in which public R&D stock is included as a quasi-fixed input in a variable cost function. Its price affects the long run desired level, while its shadow price indicates whether under (over) investment occurs in the short run. Two alternative R&D prices and, thus, two different long-run desired levels, are defined. One concerns the private (farmer) perspective, in which farmers express demand under the assumption of costless R&D. The other considers the societal point of view, in which the objective is the optimal public R&D supply conditioned on its cost. Application of the above model to the Italian agricultural context (1960–1995) suggests a significant difference between these private and social desired R&D levels. The latter are, on average, closer to the observed values, though over-investment has emerged since the mid-eighties.

The effect of capital requirement regulation on the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from Austria

This paper analyzes the role of banks’ regulatory capitalization in the transmission of monetary policy. We use a confidential dataset for Austrian banks spanning from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2003. We find evidence that Austrian banks react in an asymmetric way to monetary policy depending on their regulatory excess capitalization, i.e. low capitalized banks react more restrictively to a monetary tightening than their highly capitalized peers.

A Knowledge-Based Economy: New Directions of Macromodelling

Development of “new economies” leading to economies mostly based on knowledge implies the construction of new long-term macroeconometric models. They should incorporate the impacts of new technologies being endogenized, as well as human capital. The paper discusses several issues related to the extension of the notion of production function. They cover first of all the measurement and explanation of total factor productivity (TFP), the role of domestic and foreign R&D expenditures, as well as educational expenditures. The discussion is extended to include proposals to construct new submodels explaining the sections of research and education and also the ICT industries.

Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes without outliers

In a seminal paper, Levine et al. (J Monet Econ 46:31–77, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.

Transaction tax and stock market behavior: evidence from an emerging market

This study examines the impact of a stamp tax rate increase on market behavior, using data from two stock exchanges in China. We find that when the tax rate increases from 0.3 to 0.5% (which implies that the transaction cost increases by about 1/3) trading volume decreases by 1/3. This implies an elasticity of turnover with respect to a stamp tax of −50% and an elasticity of turnover with respect to transaction cost of −100%. The markets’ volatility significantly increases after the increase in the tax rate. Furthermore, the change in the volatility structure indicates that the markets become less efficient in the sense that shocks are less quickly assimilated in the markets.

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Economies of scale and scope in the European banking sector

In this article, using the data of 2008, we try to describe the impact of scale and product differentiation in 282 European banks. While evidence of the economies of scale is less clear, the results obtained using a translogarithmic function system show that significant economies of scope do exist even for new banking products like derivatives.

Financial Development and Income in North Africa

We explore the short-run dynamics and long-run relationship between income and financial development in Algeria, Egypt, and Morocco. We use co-integration and VECM models and four indicators of financial development. The empirical results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between income and each financial development indicator, except credit to the private sector in Algeria. On the other hand, Granger-causality test results indicate that the evidence on the direction of causality is mixed.

The evolution of IT innovations in Swedish organizations: a Darwinian critique of ‘Lamarckian’ institutional economics

Fundamental correspondence and analogies between the evolution of technological and biological innovations call for an ‘innovation Darwinian’, ‘universal Darwinian’ or ‘memetic’ approach to understanding technology innovation. Neo-institutional, in fact pseudo-Lamarckian evolutionary economic theory, represented by North, Nelson and Winter, Freeman and others, is criticized. Pseudo-Lamarckian (“by volition”) evolution is explained and analyzed on Darwinian grounds (as intentional and artificial selection), as is Schumpeter’s definitions of creative and imitative innovation. Data from a web survey among Swedish public and private organizations in 1999 are studied. Data show that Darwinian co-evolutionary interaction between producers and users or clients provide essential conditions and stronger influence on creative IT innovations than both ‘Lamarckian’ strategies and competition.

Are some taxes different than others? An empirical investigation of the effects of tax policy in Canada

This paper investigates the response of major macroeconomic variables to four different types of tax policy innovations in Canada within a VAR framework. The positive tax multipliers documented in the previous literature are found only for corporate tax innovations. Our results indicate that different taxes affect output differently, and imply that the composition of total taxes may be a major factor behind cross-country variation in the sign and magnitude of total tax multipliers.

Optimal patent length and height

Patent breadth and length have been discussed extensively in innovation literature. In this article, I analyze the optimal degree of novelty of patent protection and its tradeoff with patent length. In the context of subsequent innovations each innovation builds on the previous one. The degree of novelty necessary for a non-infringing patent is crucial for the firms’ incentive to innovate. One of the findings is that a monopolist’s optimal degree of novelty is lesser than would be socially desirable. Furthermore, there exists a finite optimal patent length. Competitors introducing an improved technology cause uncertainty which may be compensated by extending patent length.

Recycling and extending product-life: an evolutionary modelling

This paper presents a model-based analysis of firms’ economic incentives to extend product life and market recyclable products. We address this problem by developing an evolutionary simulation model to describe the behavior of business firms as interacting with consumers and recyclers. Market structure, business firms’ R&D strategies and consumers’ preferences are found to have an important influence here. The simulation results show that improvement in recycling is necessary but not sufficient to solve the issue of increase in waste. Recycling will need to be backed up with an extension in product-life to face such an unwanted increase. Adopting such a strategy could be positive for firms and for the environment because it could lead to high economic performance, both in terms of profits and market share, and to high environmental performance, both in terms of product recyclability and product lifetime. Our results suggest introducing regulation policies aimed at encouraging firms to invest in developing green products, i.e. those which are easily recyclable and which have a long lifetime, and getting consumers to buy them. It would also seem crucial to lend support to innovation outlay for such firms and to favor their seeking to improve product performance.

A sectoral taxonomy of educational intensity

This paper classifies 49 manufacturing and service industries according to their educational workforce composition. Statistical cluster techniques are applied to data for the USA, Germany, France, the UK and Austria. Industries are first classified separately for each country, providing an appropriate tool for the analysis of national micro-data. Later, the paper proposes a common consensus classification, enabling comparative international studies. Validation of the cluster solution reveals considerable robustness to variations over time and between countries. Finally, regression analyses and ANOVA decompositions on various measures of sector performance confirm a significant tendency towards “education-biased structural change” between industries.

Environmental determinants of banking efficiency in Austria

The great majority of Austrian banks operate on a regional or local basis and only a few banks provide their services on a national or even international scale. Obviously, the market environments regional or local banks face are different from that of nationwide operating banks. Casual evidence suggests that local markets condition is a very important external determinant of banking efficiency. Thus, not controlling for market conditions may substantially bias the measurement of managerial efficiency particularly of locally operating banks. In this paper we assess the internal technical efficiency (or X-efficiency) of the Austrian banking sector with the focus on environmental and non-controllable factors critical to banking markets. Analytically, we apply a multiple-stage approach based on a slacks-based DEA model (SBM) and a censored regression model, respectively. In order to cope with the inherent dependency problem of DEA-based efficiency analysis when incorporated into regression analysis we apply a Bootstrap estimator. In so doing we attempt to overcome the dependency problem which plagues the power of standard regression analysis based on DEA processed data. The empirical analysis is based on an unbalanced panel of data covering more than 800 Austrian banks ranging over 1995–2002.

Testing efficiency of the ruble-sterling foreign-exchange market under the gold standard

This paper tests an efficient market hypothesis for the Russian ruble–UK sterling exchange rates in the gold standard period 1897–1913. Using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods it is shown how to test a weak-form market efficiency in a doubly truncated regression model with ARMA-GARCH error. The suggested model accounts for time series characteristics of the data and bounds of exchange rates caused by the gold points and government intervention. We find that the weak-form efficiency hypothesis can not be rejected for the gold standard ruble exchange rates in both St.Petersburg and London markets.

Did efficiency of Indian public sector banks converge with banking reforms?

This paper examines the issue of convergence of efficiency levels among Indian public sector banks (PSBs) during the post-reforms period spanning from 1992/1993 to 2005/2006. The empirical results indicate that the majority of PSBs have observed an ascent in technical efficiency during the post-reforms years. Further, the inefficient PSBs have been noted to be catching up with the efficient ones. That is, the banks with low level of efficiency at the beginning of the period are growing more rapidly than the highly efficient banks. In sum, the study confirms a presence of convergence phenomenon in the Indian public sector banking industry.

Great depression no. 2: finance and the real world

The current crisis is triggering off a number of overdue reflections and interventions. The need for closer regulation of the financial system is widely perceived to be necessary. That is no doubt necessary, but probably insufficient. A careful overhaul of the functions of the banking and financial system is also needed. Our forefathers, at the time of the Great Depression, were perhaps less demurring to trim a bloated financial system.

On the integration of growth and business cycles

This paper discusses several approaches to generating the observed persistence in macro models and presents evidence in favor of models where endogenous technology adoption propagates transitory shocks into the medium term. Prepared for the Conference on “The Interrelation of Cycles and Growth” in honor of Gunther Tichy.

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Global impact of a shift in foreign reserves to euros

This paper uses QUEST III, a multi-region DSGE model, to study the macroeconomic effects of a gradual equalization of official foreign reserves between dollars and euros. We simulate a scenario of a shift in the composition of foreign reserves holdings from the present ratio of 65% dollars and 25% euros to equal 45% shares over a 10 years period. We assume imperfect substitutability between financial assets to allow this shift to have real effects. Our simulations point towards small real effects due to the reduction in real interest rates resulting from this shift in official holdings.