Finnish Homes—Through Passages or Traps?

This is a study of tenure choice, housing demand and mobility in the submarkets of the Helsinki metropolitan area. The empirical analysis is based on data on households, type of tenure, housing characteristics and mobility for a sample of Helsinki residents at the end of 1980s. According to our results the probability of owning is affected not only by user costs of alternative tenure forms but also by permanent income and demographic variables. Results from the tenure specific housing demand models indicate that there are non-neutralities in the housing markets. Permanent income elasticities of housing demand are clearly positive in owner-occupied sector and systematically higher than in the rented sector. The demand for owner-occupied housing depends very strongly on the age of the household head. User cost per housing unit affects housing demand negatively in both tenure forms. Effective demand is greater in private housing sector. The results suggest that owner-occupied living is preferred with heavily subsidized households the least likely to move. In the rental sector, where the probability of moving is higher, it is also true that the most heavily subsidized households are the least likely to move.     

Modeling and Computing Transactions Costs for Purchasers of Housing Services

This paper models, as equilibrium behavior, buyers' behaviors under transactions costs and market failure constraints. It derives equilibrium conditions and it shows how they differ from unconstrained models. Standard utility and cost parameters are then used to estimate the economic costs of the constraints, which may be interpreted, at the margin, as the transactions costs of moving. If transactions costs are greater than the economic costs of the constraints, the household remains in a residence, even in response to changed price and income expectations. Changes in expected prices and incomes lead to changed housing demand even when the household cannot adjust housing consumption between periods. These findings have implications for empirical work with both cross-section and panel data sets.     

A Note on Inflation and Relative Tenure Prices

This article develops a simplified model of housing costs to analyze the effects of the expected rate of inflation on residential tenure choice. Inflation, working though the Federal Tax Code, affects a number of the components of housing costs in ways which vary between tenure modes. On net, the tax subsidy to owner-occupancy is more positively leveraged with respect to expected inflation than are tax preferences for rental residential real estate. In fact, it is likely that higher expectations of inflation will reduce the after-tax cost of owner-occupied housing.     

Housing Costs and the Elderly

Estimates are made of changes in average housing costs and average family incomes for non-moving elderly homeowners and renters over the period 1972–80. Findings suggest that: rental costs are higher in each time period than are homeownership costs; evidence of serious deterioration in affordability of housing is weak, when looking at aggregate price/income ratios; and it is clear that elderly renters are more seriously disadvantaged in housing affordability than are elderly homeowners at every time period.     

Housing Adjustment Costs: Their Impact on Mobility and Housing Demand Elasticities

The role of housing adjustment costs in influencing mobility decisions, and the relationship between these and housing demands is not well understood. Here we try to examine how changes in adjustment costs as well as in such demand factors as income, influence the decision of households to adjust their housing consumption through moving. Empirically, we use a sample of recently moving homeowners from the PSID and provide evidence indicating adjustment costs are more important than other demand factors in influencing mobility decisions. We also argue that sample selection may bias estimates of housing demand elasticities when the sample is restricted to recent movers because the influence of adjustment costs in the mobility decision are not accounted for. Testing for this using the Heckman two-stage procedure, however, showed this was not a significant problem.     

Borrower Attitudes Toward Alternative Mortgage Instruments*

Much of the existing literature on homeownership assumes that financial markets work well enough to allow households to translate permanent income into effective demand. However, transaction costs, imperfections, and uncertainties all constrain the markets' operation so that people are often forced to choose a quantity of housing stock that diverges from their desired consumption level. Instead of being able to borrow against future income for the down payment or to make monthly payments in a pattern that matches future income, young families in their early years may be constrained from purchasing the size house they desire, and older households may remain in homes larger than they need. In light of these market imperfections, housing and tenure decisions depend not only on permanent income and the relative price of housing services, but also on such mortgage parameters as monthly payment patterns, down payment, and rate of equity accumulation. Models of the demand for housing and homeownership described in the existing literature do not include these parameters of mortgage finance. Mortgage terms are important factors in housing consumption and investment decisions. Because the standard mortgage no longer seems appropriate for all households under all economic conditions, the extent to which alternative mortgage instruments meet the requirements and preferences of different segments of the market becomes an important issue.     

A Cash Flow Model of Rational Housing Tenure Choice*

This paper develops a model of housing costs in a cash flow framework. The cash flow approach allows both the consumption and investment aspects of tenure choice to be analyzed. By solving the model for the rental flow equivalent to any owning situation, we can determine whether or not a household would buy or rent from an economic perspective. The results are very sensitive to the household's income, the expected duration of occupancy, the mortgage interest rate, and inflation expectations. The results suggest that “rule-of-thumb” generalizations about tenure choice are often ill-founded, and that studies of tenure choice need to explicitly consider the interaction of income, taxes, length of occupancy and expectations.     

The Resale Housing Market

This paper describes and analyzes the structure and operation of the market for existing single-family homes. The paper develops aggregative models of sales and renovation activity based on the adjustment choice decisions of households to alter their housing consumption by moving or by undertaking renovations. The models demonstrate that housing resales and renovation expenditures occur when the present value of the gains associated with a housing adjustment exceeds the costs of the transaction. The choice of the adjustment mode is shown to be significantly influenced by the relative transactions costs of moving versus renovating.     

Housing,Wealth, Income and Consumption: China and Homeownership Heterogeneity

Impacts on consumer spending in urban China associated with housing value, housing equity, financial assets and household income are evaluated using longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) survey. Findings suggest that the housing wealth effect on household consumption in China is much larger than has been shown for developed economies. The larger impact is prospectively related to structural limits on investing which favor real estate ownership, along with the dominant position of housing in total household wealth. We also find that a household's consumption varies across housing tenure. Homeowners having joint ownership of property on average have the highest consumption propensity, while those having sole ownership of property consume the most in response to appreciation in housing wealth.     

The Effect of Municipal Services and Local Taxes on Housing Values

This paper presents an economic model which casts the "Tiebout Hypothesis" in a Von Thumen type model of spatial equilibrium and considers the effect of differential provision of municipal services on household utility levels and housing prices in a politically fragmented urban area. Also in the context of this model three alternative methods of financing municipal services are examined. The article suggests that different levels of municipal services may cause spatial disequilibrium in an urban area, and as households move within the urban area to maximize their utility, they bid up (or down) the price of housing to the extent that their consumer's surplus is capitalized in housing values. Thus, the resultant urban rent gradient may be "kinked" or discontinuous. This paper also presents empirical findings examining the relationship between housing values and several municipal services.     

Housing Tenure Transitions of Older Households: What is the Role of Child Proximity?

This study examines the role of proximity of children to their parents and recent moves of children within a proximate distance in housing tenure transitions of older households. This study is the first to investigate the interplay between health status of older households, moves of their children and a household's decision to make housing tenure transitions. In doing so, we rely on longitudinal household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with residential location information at the census tract level. The results demonstrate that after controlling for the financial and demographic characteristics of children, living near children reduces the likelihood of making a housing tenure transition for older households, but that the impact of distance is not monotonic with respect to the degree of geographic distances. The results also demonstrate that if a child enters or moves closer to her or his parents’ home, it increases the probability that older households exit homeownership. Finally, we find no evidence that children's moves mitigate the likelihood that their older parents whose health deteriorates become renters.     

Risk and Return to Housing, Tenure Choice and the Value of Housing in an Asset Pricing Context

Homeowners do not diversify their risky home equity because of fixed costs of issuing securities and information costs. An asset pricing model is developed for homeowners with the undiversifiable home equity asset. Homeowner value and house value to diversified landlords are compared, and a tenure choice equation is developed. We demonstrate the existence of a rational expectations equilibrium under appropriate conditions.     

The Impacts of Remittances, Residency Status and Financial Attachment on Housing Tenure for Mexican-Heritage Americans: Inferences from a New Survey

Immigration has and will continue to alter the composition of housing demand in the United Sates. In this article, we analyze results from a new survey of Mexican-heritage households to draw some inferences about tenure choice within that group. Some measures of attachment to the United States—residency status and the amount of money sent to relatives and friends in Mexico—suggest that, among Mexican immigrants, permanence is a key determinant of homeownership in the United States. More specifically, being a citizen increased the probability of ownership, whereas being undocumented reduces the probability. Surprisingly, after controlling for residency status, length of tenure in the United States does not predict tenure status, except that those who refused to report length of tenure were more likely to have higher tenure status. Those who sent remittances home to Mexico were less likely to become homeowners.     

Why Do We Have Urban Density Controls?

Almost all urban land use controls reduce permitted densities. This article analyzes restrictions on residential densities in a conventional model of density–distance functions. Density controls force development to extend farther than in competitive equilibrium, thus increasing commuting distances and dwelling costs. Residents benefit if, as is likely, they prefer lower densities than in competitive equilibrium. But there is a limit to the extra commuting and housing costs that nevertheless make residents better off. Theoretical and numerical analyses are presented to show that likely parameter values almost certainly result in reductions in residents' welfare.     

The Investment in Housing As a Forward Market Transaction: Implications for Tenure Choice and Portfolio Selection

A model of tenure choice is presented which treats the benefits and costs of homeownership from a theory of finance perspective. The incremental benefits from homeownership over renting housing services are from two sources: protection against rental price risk (a forward transaction in the housing market) and from a possible capital gain from the eventual sale of a house (substitutes for portfolio investment). The cost of these benefits is higher initial outlay on housing, which reduces the funds available for portfolio investments. The comparative statics of this model is presented. It is shown that rental risk and portfolio risk add to the value of homeownership. Since homeownership is a partial substitute for portfolio investment, it is shown that the lower the covariance between portfolio returns and future home prices the more valuable is homeownership. In the presence of differential borrowing opportunities it is shown that the leverage available to housing significantly increases the value of homeownership.     

Market Conditions and Housing Choices: A Comparison of Homeownership Across Three Decades

This article uses information on out‐of‐pocket housing cost and house price appreciation along with the geo‐coded version of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to consider the differences in the impact of these and other variables on the tenure choices of sample households across three time periods, the 1970s, the 1980s and the 1990s. Specifically, an extended continuous time probability model is used to examine households' transitions from renting to owning and subsequent possible transitions either back to rental tenure or to another owned home during our three observation periods. Coefficient estimates show that financial variables such as house price appreciation and out‐of‐pocket housing cost play an important role in determining all the transitions. In addition, the analysis demonstrates the interesting result that the cumulative likelihoods of homeownership derived from the model are consistently lower than the probabilities of an initial transition to homeownership from rental tenure during the observation period. Finally, the magnitude and timing of the impact on homeownership of a policy experiment that eliminates the mortgage interest deduction are shown to differ substantially across the three decades.     

Matters of food and farming in Asia

Leaving aside the plantation enclaves, the problems of food and farming in Asia are centred on subsistence farming. This, in spite of recent improvements in farming techniques, remains subject to natural hazards, population pressure and risks which only those with ready access to land, labour, capital and know-how are able to face. By comparison, small cultivators, tenants and landless labourers suffer serious disadvantages. These can be reduced only as a result of reforms which bring security of tenure, transfers of land and a just system of land tax combined with public works programmes. Thus economic growth, coupled with social equilibrium and political stability, could be achieved.     

Forecasting Housing Markets: Lessons Learned

Forecasting changes in housing finance (instruments and institutions), housing demand (tenure, quantity, and real price), and housing production requires forecasting numerous exogenous factors—inflation, government policy, and demographic forces being the most obvious—and interpreting their impacts on the housing market. We use forecasts made over the last two decades to illustrate the importance of these variables and of interpreting their impacts appropriately.     

The Impact of the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 on Housing Turnover in the U.S. Single‐Family Residential Market

The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97) replaced a one‐time, post‐age‐55 capital gain exclusion with a larger gain exclusion amount that could be protected every two years without requiring that the taxpayer trades up in housing. This action had the potential to impact housing transactions for every existing homeowner, regardless of age, as well as future purchasers of housing. We analyze household‐level data to determine if the repeated ability to exclude periodic recognized capital gains on housing from taxation shortened housing tenure significantly after TRA97 became effective. We next consider whether the decline was heterogeneous across age groups, across trading up and trading down and across geography. Given that the impact of TRA97 appears at first glance to be most profound for taxpayers close to 55 years of age, a somewhat surprising result of our research is that significant decreases in tenure are pervasive, appearing in all age ranges and in samples of homeowners who trade up and who trade down. Finally, we provide additional evidence at the aggregate level that TRA97 led to measurable changes in the price elasticity of housing turnover in the four geographic regions defined by the U.S. Census Bureau (Northeast, Midwest, South and West) and in states that are home to large metropolitan housing markets.     

The Effect of Housing Market Disequilibrium on the Supply of Labor: Evidence from Poland, 1989–1990*

This paper examines the effect of housing market disequilibrium on the supply of labor. Earlier studies suggested that housing market disequilibria affected other markets through altered consumption patterns (Podkaminer 1982 , 1988 ) or because housing shortages restricted labor mobility (Mayo and Stein 1988 ). This paper examines the disincentive to supply labor which arises from housing market disequilibrium. The disequilibrium is measured by four variables. One is a measure of density, while the others are based upon the number of persons in official housing queues. Each of the variables is negative and significant in the two-stage least squares estimates of labor supply. Estimates disaggregated by skill-class are also presented. Housing market disequilibrium has the greatest impact on the labor supply of the least skilled.