黑龙江省第三产业对就业增长贡献分析

分析了1978—2007年黑龙江省三次产业的就业状况,分别计算了黑龙江省第一、第二、第三产业的就业产值弹性;运用VAR模型研究了黑龙江省第三产业发展对黑龙江省就业的动态影响。就业产值弹性计算结果表明,黑龙江省第一、第三产业的发展对其就业具有推动作用。VAR模型分析结果表明:第三产业发展是黑龙江省就业增长的格兰杰原因;黑龙江省第三产业产值占GDP比重及第三产业就业比重的正向调整对就业增长产生正向影响,且影响期较长。     

京津冀：各自的比较优势在哪里

一、京津冀产业结构比较 从京津冀产业结构变化的整体趋势来看，改革开放以来，三省市的第一产业在GDP中的比重呈逐渐缩小趋势，京津第二产业比重也渐趋收缩，河北省第二产业比重变化不太明显，三省市第三产业比重均呈稳步提高趋势。2000年，北京呈第三产业比重最大、第二产业比重次之、第一产业比重最小的“三二一”型结构，天津与河北则仍属于第二产业占主要比重、第三产业次之、第一产业最小的“二三一”型结构。     

技术市场对产业结构调整的促进效应——以北京技术市场为例

针对技术市场对产业结构调整的作用机制,利用Granger因果关系检验、VAR模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法或工具,实证分析并对比了北京技术市场与全国产业结构和北京产业结构的作用关系。结果显示:北京技术市场与全国和北京的产业结构均存在因果联系,并对全国第一产业产值比重的提升起抑制作用,对全国第二、第三产业产值比重的提升起促进作用,对北京第一、第三产业产值比重的提升起促进作用,对北京第二产业产值比重的提升起抑制作用;北京地区的产业结构仍未发展到以第三产业为主导的阶段。     

广州市产业结构与就业结构演变的实证分析

改革开放以来,广州市产业结构和就业结构在不断的调整和优化,产业结构和就业结构的偏离度不断缩小。第二产业存在一个特有的现象:1978~2001年间,产业比重总体呈现快速下降趋势,但是就业比重却呈现缓慢上升的趋势;2002~2008年间,产值比重和就业比重一直比较稳定。其原因主要受到产业间经济增长与就业增长不平衡的制约。实证分析表明,广州市第一产业产值比重每下降1%,就业比重下降0.19%;第二产业产业比重每下降1%,就业比重上升0.21%;第三产业产值比重每上升1%,就业比重上升0.94%。广州市就业结构的发展滞后于产业结构。因此,要大力推进"双转移"政策,促进广州市产业结构与就业结构协调发展。     

江苏与国外第三产业发展分析比较

<正>一、产业结构发展的一般规律与江苏第二产业发展。 世界产业经济史表明,产业结构的发展是一个从低级向高级递进的过程。在工业化价段,第二产业比重上升很快,并超过第一产业比重居主体地位。当第二产业比重达到一定高峰后,便趋于停滞且进而下降。与此同时,第三产业比重迅速上升,逐渐取代第二产业的主体地位。作为第三产业发展,1.趋势上,随着繁个国民经济发展水平的提高而逐步加快,并居主体地位;2.速度上,逐步高于整个经济的发展速度;3.构成上,在整个国民经济中的比重逐步提高。第三产业发展水平标志着一国或一地区的经济成长水平,其发展的结构意义是与经济发展的历史阶段性相统一的。 我们从产值结构和就业结构西方面考察江苏省现阶段第三产业发育水平及其产业结构的状态(见表1)。     

经济区产业结构变动对生态环境的动态效应分析——以呼包银榆经济区为例

以呼包银榆经济区为例,采用2000—2012年呼包银榆经济区的统计数据,运用典型相关法、协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解法,在分析呼包银榆经济区与生态环境相关性的基础上,进一步检验和分析了经济区产业结构变动对生态环境的动态效应,结果表明:1经济区第一产业、第二产业和生态环境相关性较高,且二者和固体环境、大气环境相关性最大。2经济区产业结构和生态环境存在长期动态均衡关系,其中,第二、三产业与水环境质量呈正协整关系,第一产业与其呈负协整关系;第一、三产业与大气环境呈负协整关系;第二产业、第三产业与固体环境质量呈正协整关系,第一产业与其存在负协整关系。3经济区产业结构对生态环境产生动态效应。其中,第一产业比重增加会引起生态环境较小幅度污染,且随着时间的推移影响逐步减弱;第二产业比重增加会引起生态环境较大幅度污染,其对工业固体废弃物排放量影响最大,工业废气排放量次之,工业废水排放量最小,且随着时间的推移保持相对稳定态势;第三产业比重增加对生态环境有一定程度的改善。因此,产业结构不断优化是改善生态环境质量的重要因素。     

我国产业结构与经济增长间动态关系的实证分析——基于状态空间模型

运用时变参数模型,从三次产业对经济增长的拉动作用的角度,对三次产业与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:虽然近几年第三产业产值及其占比的增长速度均很快,但第三产业对经济增长的拉动作用不明显,落后于第二产业。最后,结合我国产业结构的特点,提出提高消费性服务业产值比重、加快第三产业内部结构的升级等建议,强调在努力提高第三产业产值比重的同时,更应注重提高第三产业的效率,由此才能实现经济的长期稳定增长。     

安徽省生产总值与三次产业的实证分析

随着安徽经济的发展,安徽省的产业结构发生了很大变化。本文论述了安徽省GDP与第一、第二和第三产业的关联度。根据实证分析结果,得出安徽省经济增长已经从改革开放初期依靠第一和第二产业支撑,演变到目前主要依靠第二和第三产业共同推动,由此提出要大力发展第三产业,促进安徽经济的进一步增长。     

安徽省生产总值与三次产业的实证分析

随着安徽经济的发展,安徽省的产业结构发生了很大变化.本文论述了安徽省GDP与第一、第二和第三产业的关联度.根据实证分析结果,得出安徽省经济增长已经从改革开放初期依靠第一和第二产业支撑,演变到目前主要依靠第二和第三产业共同推动,由此提出要大力发展第三产业,促进安徽经济的进一步增长.     

三次产业与中国就业:增长趋势及国际比较

改革开放以来,中国经济增长与产业结构、就业结构变动之间呈现出什么样的演变关系是众多学者所关心的。本文通过对我国就业弹性、产业偏离度、不同产业的相对劳动生产率等指标的实证分析和国际比较,得出如下结论:(1)1990年以来,我国第一产业就业已达到饱和并开始排斥劳动力,第二产业吸纳劳动力的能力下降,第三产业已成为吸纳劳动力的主要产业;(2)我国的产业结构与就业结构具有非一致性的特点,主要表现为就业结构滞后产业结构的发展;(3)我国的产业结构存在第二产业比重过大,第三产业发展不足的产业结构偏差;就业结构变动中劳动力向第三产业转移的速度缓慢,第三产业就业比重明显偏低。     

Causal relationship between construction investment policy and economic growth in Turkey

The construction industry in countries experiencing severe economic crisis has vital importance to get out of stagnation because of its direct relations with 200 different sectors. In this study, the relationship between the construction growth data (infrastructure, building and residential (public), building and residential (private) investment) and gross domestic product (GDP) is examined for Turkey. To this end, Engle–Granger cointegration, error correction model (ECM) and Granger causality tests were applied in order to determine the aforementioned relation. It has been found that the infrastructure and building–residential investments have direct relations with the GDP and have causality effects.     

产业能源消费与产业发展的协整与误差修正模型分析

能源消费与经济增长密切相关。能源消费在三次产业的分布与三次产业经济发展的关系如何，对于我国国民经济的可持续发展，建立资源节约型社会，保证资源的永续利用具有重要现实意义。笔者利用协整理论，检验三次产业的能源消费与产业发展的协整和因果关系，建立误差修正模型。结果表明，三次产业的能源消费弹性是不同的，GDP是能源消费的格兰杰因果关系。     

Revisiting the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis: evidence from the ASEAN-5 countries with structural breaks

This paper tests if the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis exists for ASEAN-5 countries in an annual sample data that covers 1971–2013, by utilizing Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology. The empirical findings give support for the EKC hypothesis for Thailand only, after considering the structural breaks. Furthermore, the paper tests the EKC hypothesis for a panel data of the ASEAN-5 by adopting the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) methodology. The results show that the long-run estimates provide no evidence for the EKC hypothesis. Finally, the paper examines the causality between the CO₂ emissions and GDP. For individual countries, bidirectional causality was found in the case of Thailand and Malaysia, plus unidirectional causality running from GDP and squared GDP to CO₂ emissions was found for Indonesia, but a unidirectional causality running from CO₂ emissions to GDP and squared GDP was found for the Philippines, however, no causality effect was found for Singapore. Furthermore, the pairwise Dumitrescu and Hurlin Panel Causality test show a bidirectional effect between CO₂ emissions and both GDP in addition to squared GDP.     

Causality between credit depth and economic growth: evidence from 24 OECD countries

Causality between the ratio of domestic private credit to GDP and growth in real GDP per capita is investigated in a country-by-country time-series framework for 24 OECD economies over the period 1980–2013. The proposed threefold methodology to test for causal linkages integrates (1) lag-augmented VAR Granger causality tests, (2) Breitung–Candelon causality tests in the frequency domain, and (3) testing for causal inference based on a fully modified OLS (FMOLS) approach. For 12 of 24 countries in the sample, the three tests yield uniform results in terms of causality presence (absence) and direction. Causality running from credit depth to economic growth is found for the UK, Australia, Switzerland, and Greece. The findings lend no support to the view that financial development shifts from a supply-leading to demand-following pattern as economic development proceeds. The aggregate results mesh well with the current discussion on “too much finance” and disintermediation effects. However, idiosyncratic country determinants also appear significant.     

Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach

This paper investigates the possibility of Granger causality between the logarithms of real exports and real GDP in twenty-four OECD countries from 1960 to 1997. A new panel data approach is applied which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Two different models are used. A bivariate (GDP–exports) model and a trivariate (GDP–exports–openness) model, both without and with a linear time trend. In each case the analysis focusses on direct, one-period-ahead causality between exports and GDP. The results indicate one-way causality from exports to GDP in Belgium, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden, one-way causality from GDP to exports in Austria, France, Greece, Japan, Mexico, Norway and Portugal, two-way causality between exports and growth in Canada, Finland and the Netherlands, while in the case of Australia, Korea, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the UK and the USA there is no evidence of causality in either direction.     

我国各省与全国经济景气的同步性研究(1953-2004)

文章选择了能够反映经济景气的GDP增长指数、固定资产投资名义增长率、CPI、商品零售价格指数等指标对我国各省与全国进行了相关分析 ,得出 :( 1 )全国、各省 1 978年以来经济都实现了较好的增长 ,但是欠发达地区平均增长速度慢于全国 ,更慢于发达地区 ,相对于广东当年GDP的比重下降。 ( 2 )各省经济景气趋势的离散程度不一 ,一般发达省份振幅大、离散程度高 ,欠发达省份振幅小、离散程度低。 ( 3 )绝大部分省与全国经济景气循环的相关性强 ,基本同步。其中 ,物价变动相关性最高 ,固定资产投资名义增长、工业增加值增长相关性次之 ,GDP增长相关性再次之。产业间表现为第二产业增长指数变动相关性最高 ,第三产业次之 ,第一产业基本不相关。各项指标发达省份与全国的相关性一般高于欠发达省份。最后文章分析了统一的宏观调控对区域差距的可能影响 ,并从宏观调控方面提出了相应的对策建议     

Economic growth and carbon emissions: evidence from CIVETS countries

ABSTRACT

This paper examines whether a long-run relationship exists between CO₂ emissions and selected variables: real gross domestic product per capita, inward stock of foreign direct investments, gross fixed capital formation, industry, value added and energy use per capita for Colombia, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa countries in the period of 1989–2016. We used panel unit root testing, followed by panel cointegration tests and panel causality. The results clearly prove the existence of a bidirectional long-run causal relationship between all the variables except between CO₂ emissions and GDP and CO₂ emissions and GFCF. Major finding of the short-run causality analysis is that CO₂ emission in the short run does not result in changes of other variables. On the other hand, all variables except foreign direct investments (FDI) cause the changes in the CO₂ emissions, and there is a positive bidirectional causal relationship between GDP and FDI, between GFCF and FDI, and between GFCF and IVA. Finally, positive unidirectional causal relationship also exists, running from GDP to IVA, GDP to ENUSE, IVA to FDI and ENUSE to FDI.     

Testing the relationships between energy consumption and income in G7 countries with nonlinear causality tests

Knowing the real causal links between energy consumption and national income is crucial for policy decision making. In this article, we address this issue for the G7 countries by using two nonlinear causality tests in the sense of Hiemstra and Jones (1994), and Kyrtsou and Labys (2006). Our results reveal some new, but mixed results. Hiemstra–Jones test indicates unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to GDP for the United Kingdom, while a bidirectional causality between energy consumption and GDP is found for Canada, France, Japan and United States. On the other hand, Kyrtsou–Labys test shows that a unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption to GDP for France and the United States, and from GDP to energy consumption for Germany. Overall, our findings suggest that policy implications of the energy-GDP links should be interpreted with caution, given the test-dependent and country-specific results.     

电力与经济增长关系计量分析——以新疆为例

运用Granger因果关系和误差修正模型,分析新疆电力与GDP以及三次产业之间的长期均衡关系.结果表明,新疆电力与经济的Granger因果关系是从GDP到装机容量和用电量的单向因果关系.从长期均衡看,GDP每增加1％,用电量增长1.1136％,装机容量增长0.9525％,经济增长对电力有效利用的促进作用显著.第一、二、三产业都是从产业增加值到用电量的单向因果关系.从长期均衡来看,第一、二、三次产业增加值每增加1％,用电量分别增长1.4215％、1.0887％和0.9533％.基于电力与经济的关系,新疆应做好电力规划,避免电力工业的产能过剩,优化产业结构,降低能耗,促进经济可持续发展.     

Does fine wine price contain useful information to forecast GDP? Evidence from major developed countries

This study provides the first attempt to examine the ability of the price of fine wine to forecast the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the major developed countries. Considering the limitation of a linear Granger causality test in detecting nonlinear causal relationships, a nonlinear Granger causality test is also employed. The results from our nonlinear causality test show that this new variable contains useful information to forecast GDP for the US, the UK, and Australia, suggesting that we may include it as a forecasting variable in GDP forecasting models, especially nonlinear models, for these three countries.