Aspects of second‐order analysis of structured inhomogeneous spatio‐temporal point processes

Statistical methodology for spatio‐temporal point processes is in its infancy. We consider second‐order analysis based on pair correlation functions and K‐functions for general inhomogeneous spatio‐temporal point processes and for inhomogeneous spatio‐temporal Cox processes. Assuming spatio‐temporal separability of the intensity function, we clarify different meanings of second‐order spatio‐temporal separability. One is second‐order spatio‐temporal independence and relates to log‐Gaussian Cox processes with an additive covariance structure of the underlying spatio‐temporal Gaussian process. Another concerns shot‐noise Cox processes with a separable spatio‐temporal covariance density. We propose diagnostic procedures for checking hypotheses of second‐order spatio‐temporal separability, which we apply on simulated and real data.     

Establishing HR Professionals’ Influence and Credibility: Lessons from the Capital Markets and Investment Banking Sector

Through two separate studies involving 47 interviews inside 22 institutions in the capital markets and investment banking sector, we explore the levels of influence and sources of credibility for senior HR professionals, and examine the challenges they face in establishing credibility. We compare these findings against previous research, which has identified several determinants of HR’s influence and credibility. Our findings confirm that HR’s modest influence is contingent on the predispositions and convictions of key stakeholders, notably the CEO, but also depends on the decision being taken. We find that the basis for senior HR professionals’ credibility is more individual than institutional, and that HR professionals and senior business managers differ in the priorities they assign to credibility determinants. Finally, the studies illuminate an enduring inherent tension for HR in establishing credibility, between servicing their internal clients’ needs and retaining a level of independence. We reflect upon the transient nature of HR credibility in this sector and others. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Monetary policy credibility: A Phillips curve view

The paper investigates the presence of monetary policy credibility in eight countries by filtering the residuals from an “augmented” Phillips curve. Two of the eight countries (US and New Zealand) exhibit robust credibility effects across samples. Two countries (South Africa and the UK) exhibit credibility effects in the sample involving the 1990s, but these effects disappear in the sample beginning in 2000. The rest of the countries do not exhibit monetary policy credibility. Given that seven of the eight countries have adopted an explicit inflation-targeting framework, we conclude that there is very weak evidence that this framework enhances monetary policy credibility. These results are however sensitive to how inflation and the output gap are measured.     

科技社团社会公信力影响因素研究

近年来受某些不良事件的影响,科技社团社会公信力不高的问题不断引起关注,对科技社团社会公信力进行系统研究并建立一套指标体系进行评价势在必行,但国内外学者在这方面鲜有涉及,尤其是评价指标体系在国内尚属空白.将主要探讨科技社团社会公信力的主要影响因素,进而为评价指标体系的建立提供依据。     

Brain drain and institutions of governance: Educational attainment of immigrants to the US 1988–1998

We investigate the impact of home country institutions on the skill level of immigrants to the United States over 1988–1998. Specifically, we explore the hypothesis that institutions are multidimensional and that the different dimensions have conflicting impacts on the migration of skilled labor. Using an exploratory factor analysis on fifteen institutional variables, we identify the following dimensions of institutional character: credibility, transparency, democracy, and the security of civil society. We find that credibility and transparency increase the magnitude of brain drain, security reduces it, and democracy has no significant impact.     

WHAT'S TO KNOW ABOUT THE CREDIBILITY OF EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS?

The scientific credibility of economics is itself a scientific question that can be addressed with both theoretical speculations and empirical data. In this review, we examine the major parameters that are expected to affect the credibility of empirical economics: sample size, magnitude of pursued effects, number and pre‐selection of tested relationships, flexibility and lack of standardization in designs, definitions, outcomes and analyses, financial and other interests and prejudices, and the multiplicity and fragmentation of efforts. We summarize and discuss the empirical evidence on the lack of a robust reproducibility culture in economics and business research, the prevalence of potential publication and other selective reporting biases, and other failures and biases in the market of scientific information. Overall, the credibility of the economics literature is likely to be modest or even low.     

Practical models in credibility theory,including parameter estimation

In credibility theory, an unobservable random vector Y is approximated by a random vector ? in a pre-assigned set $\text{A}$ of admitted estimators for Y. The credibility approximation ? for Y is best in the sense that it is the vector V ? $\text{A}$ minimizing the distance between V and Y. The credibility estimator depends on observable random variables but also on unknown structure parameters. In the practical models, the latter can be estimated from realizations of the observable random variables.     

图书馆信誉与读者信誉

图书馆信誉的建立与读者信誉的评价是图书管理事业发展中提出的两大关键问题。如何强化图书馆的信誉意识、实施信誉战略,建立读者信誉度评价体系,维系读者对图书馆的信誉度和忠诚度,是图书馆管理建设工作的重点,也是图书馆转型期需要解决的重要问题。     

考试信度的探讨

本文阐述了信度定义测试信度的方法以及影响考试信度的因素,最后列举一些提高考试信度的措施。     

关于机械制造企业网站信息化水平的调查

机械制造企业的网站是实施网络营销的基础,笔者从网站栏目结构、网站内容及可信度、网站功能和服务、网站运营与推广四方面,来调查机械制造企业的网站信息化水平,并提出了有效的建议。     

A bargaining set for roommate problems

Since stable matchings may not exist, we propose a weaker notion of stability based on the credibility of blocking pairs. We adopt the weak stability notion of Klijn and Massó (2003) for the marriage problem and we extend it to the roommate problem. We first show that although stable matchings may not exist, a weakly stable matching always exists in a roommate problem. Then, we adopt a solution concept based on the credibility of the deviations for the roommate problem: the bargaining set. We show that weak stability is not sufficient for a matching to be in the bargaining set. We generalize the coincidence result for marriage problems of Klijn and Massó (2003) between the bargaining set and the set of weakly stable and weakly efficient matchings to roommate problems. Finally, we prove that the bargaining set for roommate problems is always non-empty by making use of the coincidence result.     

Factors helping the HR function gain greater acceptance for its proposals and innovations: evidence from Spain†

On the basis of the sense-making and sense-giving literature, this study addresses factors helping the HR function gain greater acceptance by employees for its proposals and innovations. Using an original sample of 298 employees from nine firms in Spain, we find that HR department credibility is only one of the factors that influence employees' acceptance. Other essential elements are top management and supervisor support. We also investigate the consequences that differential levels of support from supervisors and top managers can have for the acceptance of HR innovations, and we find that supervisor support carries more weight than that of top managers. Finally, we explore variations in the importance of the HR function credibility as an acceptance enabler under different organizational innovation climates. The results suggest that HR credibility plays an essential role independently of climate.     

Altruism and Relational Incentives in the Workplace

This paper studies how altruism between managers and employees affects relational incentive contracts. To this end, we develop a simple dynamic principal–agent model where both players may have feelings of altruism or spite toward each other. The contract may contain two types of incentives for the agent to work hard: a bonus and a threat of dismissal. We find that altruism undermines the credibility of a threat of dismissal but strengthens the credibility of a bonus. Among others, these two mechanisms imply that higher altruism sometimes leads to higher bonuses, whereas lower altruism may increase productivity and players' utility in equilibrium.     

LEADERSHIP IN CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION: CONSEQUENCES AND INCENTIVES

Initiatives in favor of unilateral action on climate change are frequently challenged by concerns over free riding. Nevertheless, we observe an increasing number of unilateral efforts at different administrative levels and in different parts of the world. Previous academic literature described various individual mechanisms where emissions abroad may increase or decrease as a reaction to unilateral emission reductions. In this paper, we collect a comprehensive set of both positive and negative reactions and analyze them in stylized models. This allows us to identify the most important characteristics that determine the potential of a leader to boost mitigation efforts abroad. We find that this potential depends on (i) a strong ability to generate knowledge through leadership, (ii) a high degree of credibility in the international community, and (iii) a similar economic structure to the most important emitters. While most effects are difficult to quantify, this comprehensive assessment suggests that leakage effects resulting from unilateral mitigation may well be outweighed by positive reactions.     

The credibility of the Colombian exchange rate target zone: Its impact over the volatility of interest rate differentials

This paper analyzes the credibility of Colombia’s exchange rate target zone, and in particular its impact on the volatility of interest rate differentials. Bertola and Caballeros’ (1995) model of a target zone with imperfect credibility is used to derive the impact of a reduction in credibility over the variance of the interest rate differential. It is theoretically shown, that as credibility decreases the variance of the interest rate differential increases. This theoretical argument is used to estimate credibility in Colombia’s exchange rate target zone. Using a SWARCH model, the probability of being in a regime with high interest rate volatility is estimated, and is related with events in the exchange rate market. Results suggest that there is evidence of lack of credibility even before the recent international financial turmoil was triggered.     

上市公司信息披露诚信机制构建

本文对我国上市公司信息披露中存在的诚信问题及原因进行了分析,指出了上市公司信息披露诚信机制构建应遵循的基本原则,诚信机制构建所包含的基本内容,对如何完善上市公司信息披露诚信机制建设提出了对策。     

Deposit structure,market discipline,and ownership type: Evidence from Indonesia

In this paper, we extend the literature on the discipline imposed by depositors on banks by disentangling the impact of macro risk and micro risk. We also take advantage of a unique dataset in which depositors are split into different categories of deposit size in different types of banks (bank ownership structure). We consider the Banking Stability Index, which is used by the Indonesia Deposit Insurance Corporation as a dashboard to monitor banking stability at the country level as well as individual stability measures such as the Z-score. Using monthly data from 2005 to 2013, our findings show that both macro and micro levels of risk are considered by depositors to discipline banks. Large uninsured depositors are more effective at disciplining banks, highlighting the credibility of the insurance system that is in place. Bank ownership type also matters in explaining the difference in market discipline by depositors.     

高校教师对网络教育障碍因素的认识探讨

我们在国内外对影响网络教育发展的障碍因素的研究基础上,试图探讨高校教师对网络教育发展中障碍因素的认识。研究结果表明信誉顾虑,财政顾虑和技术障碍被认为是对网络教育发展最大的三项障碍。     

非寿险精算中的贝叶斯信用模型分析

针对传统B櫣hlmann-Straub信用模型不能有效地解决缺失数据信息处理问题,本文利用贝叶斯统计方法,构造了一类新的贝叶斯信用分析模型,引入基于吉布斯抽样的马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法进行数值计算,建立了一个索赔后验分层正态模型进行实证分析,证明模型的有效性。研究结果表明,基于MCMC的贝叶斯信用模型能够动态模拟模型参数的后验分布,提高模型估计的精度,对保险公司经验费率厘定方法的改进具有重要的现实意义。     

Partner selection and university-industry linkages: Assessing small firms' initial perceptions of the credibility of their partners

As promoting the engagement of firms and universities through collaborative linkages gathers pace among policymakers, it appears to be pertinent to examine in more detail the mechanisms that underpin their formation. This paper examines the processes by which small firms assess the credibility of their potential partner when engaging in collaborative links with universities. Here, credibility is defined as the ability to deliver the promised knowledge and experience of a particular field when entering into a collaborative linkage with a university, and represents the firms' assessment of the usefulness of the university as a potential partner. The paper presents two main findings; firstly, the credibility of potential university partners is based around the realism, comprehensiveness, and specificity of their knowledge. Secondly, credibility appears to be judged at an individual rather than institutional level. The implications of these findings to theory and practice are also discussed.