Bilateralism and Regionalism in Japanese and U.S. Trade and Direct Foreign Investment Patterns

We apply a modified "gravity model" incorporating measures of factor endowments to analyze Japanese and U.S. bilateral trade flows and direct foreign investment positions with a sample of around 100 countries for the period 1985–1990. Country features that our analysis takes into account are population, income, the land–labor ratio, the average level of education, and region. We find that features of a country associated with more trade with either Japan or the United States also tend to be associated with more direct foreign investment (DFI) from Japan or the United States. U.S. economic relations with Japan and Western Europe provide an important exception. Despite U.S. concern about its trade deficit with Japan, we find Japan to be much more open to the United States, not only as a source of imports, but also as a destination for U.S. exports than most countries in Western Europe. Taking other factors into account, however, Western Europe is more open to U.S. direct foreign investment. We also find that a country′s level of education tends to increase significantly U.S. interaction of all types with that country, even after correcting for per capita income. Education does not play a significant role in Japanese trade patterns. As factor endowment theory would predict, the United States tends to trade more with densely populated countries, while Japan tends to import more from sparsely populated countries. Even after taking into account population, income, factor endowments, and region, there is a substantial degree of "bilateralism" in Japanese and U.S. economic relationships in that the residual correlation among exports, imports, and outward direct foreign investment is much larger than would be the case if these magnitudes were independent across countries. J. Japan. Int. Econ. December 1994, 8(4), pp. 478–510. Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.     

Fluctuations in Unemployment and Industry Labor Markets

Throughout the 1990s, and particularly in the mid- to late-1990s, the Japanese employment situation went from bad to worse. We investigate the causes of rising unemployment in Japan, using data on individual workers from the “Special Survey of the Labor Force” between 1988 and 1999. This research focuses on the effect of labor market segmentation by industry on labor flows. Our findings reveal that unemployment in the construction industry and, more recently, in the service industry has contributed greatly to the national unemployment rate. We also find that most successful job transfers occur within the same industry, even though workers may experience some periods of unemployment. Finally, our results show that labor market conditions in each industry affect the probability that a worker will fall into unemployment as well as the probability that an unemployed worker will find new employment. These findings suggest that the Japanese labor market is segmented by industry and this segmentation contributed to the worsening unemployment in Japan. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 437–464. Department of Economics, Dokkyo University, 1-1 Gakuen-cho, Soka-shi, Saitama 340-0042, Japan; Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya, 464-8601, Japan. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J63, J64.     

The Euro and International Equity Flows

We use a new panel data set on bilateral gross cross-border equity flows between 14 countries. We fit a “gravity model” to these data and a strictly comparable set of data for manufactures trade between these countries. The results are strikingly similar, although the coefficient on the distance variable is lower for equity than for trade flows (but still highly significant). We use the results to throw some light on the likely consequences of unifying the European equity markets.J. Japan. Int. Econ.December 1998,12(4), pp. 406–423. London Business School and CEPR, Sussex Place, Regent's Park, London NW1 4SA, United Kingdom and London School of Economics, London WC2 2AE, United Kingdom.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F21, F3.     

Invoicing currency and the optimal basket peg for East Asia: Analysis using a new open economy macroeconomic model

An important characteristic of trade in Asia is that the US dollar is the dominant invoicing currency. This fact might have a consequence on the region's choice of the currency regime. To investigate this possibility, I develop a three country “new open economy macroeconomics” model that consists of East Asia, Japan, and the US. Assuming that East Asia pegs its currency to a basket of the other two's currencies, the optimal basket weights are derived numerically. It is shown that the weights under a realistic invoicing pattern are drastically different from those in the textbook case of “producer currency pricing.” J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 569–589.     

Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values

One of the primary motivations offered by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for its quantitative easing program—whereby it maintained a current account balance target in excess of required reserves, effectively pegging short-term interest rates at zero—was to maintain credit extension by the troubled Japanese financial sector. We conduct an event study concerning the anticipated impact of quantitative easing on the Japanese banking sector by examining the impact of the introduction and expansion of the policy on Japanese bank equity values. We find that excess returns of Japanese banks were greater when increases in the BOJ current account balance target were accompanied by “non-standard” expansionary policies, such as raising the ceiling on BOJ purchases of long-term Japanese government bonds. We also provide cross-sectional evidence that suggests that the market perceived that the quantitative easing program would disproportionately benefit financially weaker Japanese banks. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 699–721.     

Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence

In this article we study the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments and macroeconomic conditions for the persistence of budgetary consolidations. In contrast to previous work in this area, we do not arbitrarily predefine a measure of persistence to evaluate consolidation “success.” By employing duration analysis techniques, the length of a consolidation spell is rather determined endogenously. Our results based on a sample of industrialised OECD countries show that “consolidation fatigue” and the quality of fiscal consolidations are indeed important determinants of their longevity. Moreover, high debt–GDP ratio and fiscal tightening in other OECD countries raise the likelihood of consolidations to persist. Applying our results to European countries in the 1990s provides only weak evidence suggesting that the Maastricht process contributed much to the fiscal consolidations observed in Europe during the 1990s. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 512–535. ZEI, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana; and CEPR; Strathclyde University, Glasgow, Scotland; and CEPR; and ECB, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt a.M., Germany; and ZEI. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E61, E62, E65.     

Saving for retirement: The U.S. case

This paper discusses the personal saving behavior and the retirement behavior of households in the United States. It shows that a typical U.S. household owns virtually no financial savings even at ages approaching retirement. Most personal saving is in the form of housing equity, which, however, is not decumulated during retirement and thus cannot be counted on as retirement wealth. Saving for retirement is largely conducted by corporations and government through pension plans and Social Security. It also presents evidence indicating a relatively large impact on the Individual Retirement Account program on personal savings. The paper casts doubts on the applicability of the pure life-cycle saving hypothesis for the U.S. households. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1988, 2(4), pp. 385–416. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138; and National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138.     

Information technology and the Japanese economy

In this paper we compare sources of economic growth in Japan and the United States from 1975 through 2003, focusing on the role of information technology (IT). We have adjusted Japanese data to conform to US definitions in order to provide a rigorous comparison between the two economies. The adjusted data show that the share of the Japanese gross domestic product devoted to investment in computers, telecommunications equipment, and software rose sharply after 1995. The contribution of total factor productivity growth from the IT sector in Japan also increased, while the contributions of labor input and productivity growth from the non-IT sector lagged far behind the United States. Our projection of potential economic growth in Japan from for the next decade is substantially below that in the United States, mainly due to slower growth of labor input. Our projections of labor productivity growth in the two economies are much more similar. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 460–481.     

Globalisation versus de-coupling: German emigration and the evolution of the Atlantic labour market 1870–1913

The decline of German emigration to the United States after 1895 was precipitate to a degree not matched by other “old immigration” sources. The paper considers possible reasons for this: the effect of land availability, relative growth rates of the US and German economies, and the impact of the so-called “new immigration” from southern and eastern Europe. It concludes that German immigration was unusually affected by competition from newer migrant sources, due to skill similarities and similar patterns of settlement. However, the more rapid growth of the German economy after 1895 and the movement of the land frontier into areas less suited to German agricultural skills also played a part. It shows that the skills possessed by migrants were an important factor in migrant earnings. The arrival in the US of large numbers of immigrants with similar skill endowments and lower reservation wages made emigration to the United States a less attractive option for potential German migrants after 1895.     

Wage comparison by gender and the effect of job segregation: The case of Taiwan

This paper examines the wage differential between the genders in a newly industrialized economy-Taiwan. The objective is to verify the existence and magnitude of the Taiwanese wage differential (or discrimination as some would term it) and contrast it with findings in the United States.The gender gap was estimated for the private sector and the public sector respectively. It was found that wage discrimination against females does exist. The magnitude of the “discrimination” falls within the same range as the empirical estimates for the U.S. In Taiwan, however, the wage discrimination appeared to be slightly more severe in the public sector.A measure for the discriminatory effects of the “occupational segregation” was proposed and implemented. Contrary to common belief, the “occupational segregation” was not an important factor in wage discrimination. Nor did the disparity of jobs distribution in terms of “industry” generate any significant level of wage discrimination. The main source of gender discrimination (in terms of wage rates) came from the lower returns to the “productivity” characteristics (experience, education, tenure, etc.) and not from seemingly popular hypotheses of occupational segregation (or, in more general terms, job segregation). This is in sharp contrast to previous studies.     

Thinking About the Liquidity Trap

The phenomenon of the liquidity trap—defined as a situation in which even a zero interest rate is insufficiently low to produce full employment—has taken on new importance with the persistent slump in Japan. This paper restates recent theoretical work on liquidity traps, drawing a link between “intertemporal” models that are mainly concerned with demonstrating the underlying logic, and more ad hoc models that bear directly on policy; it then reexamines policy alternatives, including fiscal stimulus and inflation targeting. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2000, 14(4), pp. 221–237. Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544-1013 Copyright 2000 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E52, E58, E31, F31.     

Stock market rationality and price volatility: Tests using Japanese data

This paper tests the stock market rationality hypothesis, which implies that a stock price is determined as the discounted sum of optimally forecasted future dividends. Mankiw-Romer-Shapiro volatility tests and new volatility tests which do not use the unobservable “ex post rational price” are applied to the data from a stock market in Japan. A Hausman type specification test of the market rationality hypothesis is also developed and applied to the data. The results suggest that we cannot reject the hypothesis that the Japanese stock market is rational. A couple of variance inequalities are violated by the data but the violation does not seem to be significant. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1987, 1(4), pp. 441–462. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139.     

The economics of market coordination for the pre-Fed check-clearing system: A peek into the Bloomington (IL) node

On the basis of anecdotes centered on the alleged “circuitous routing of checks,” researchers focusing on the pre-Fed check-clearing system have usually argued that it was inefficient. In this paper we study a 1910 check remittance register from the State National Bank of Bloomington, Illinois—we dissect the way the bank forwarded checks to various destinations for clearing and collection. We find that the bank followed an orderly process of check remittance according to which checks tended to move in the “right direction.” This casts doubts on the alleged pervasiveness of cycling and circuitous routing of an extreme nature in the pre-Fed check-clearing process.     

The roots of today's “women's jobs” and “men's jobs”: Using the index of dissimilarity to measure occupational segregation by gender

Looked at broadly, occupational distributions by sex in the United States have changed remarkably little since 1900; accordingly, researchers have found a slow rate of decline in the index of dissimilarity (a measure of occupational segregation by gender), estimates of which have so far been confined to the 20th century. This paper analyzes trends in the index over the latter part of the 19th century. The results indicate that during this period, industrialization and the associated changes in the nature of the business enterprise resulted in a rapid declinne in occupational segregation by gender, as measured by the index. This decline occurs earliest in cities experiencing early industrialization. Index estimates are presented for the United States and for selected midwestern cities, and changes in the index are decomposed into occupational mix effects and sex composition effects. Occupation-specific index changes are used to identify which occupations influenced changes in the overall index. The results indicate that the dynamic occupational shifts of the 19th century set the stage for the “men's jobs” and “women's jobs” that have been so persistently stable in the 20th century.     

Entrepreneurship and business culture in Japan and the U.S.

It seems to me likely that entrepreneurship will take a different path in Japan than it has in the U.S. Given the prominence of large organizations in key areas of Japan's economy and the emphasis its society places on lifetime employment relationships, many of the “startups” of the sort that transformed the American business are more likely to happen within existing firms rather than as new enterprises. Such development, called “intrapreneurship” in the U.S. requires new institutional structures and rewards. Such changes will not come easily, because they run against the grain of Japanese society and business culture, yet I believe that success will come to those who can execute such strategies.     

Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar

Foreign exchange reserve accumulation has risen dramatically in recent years. The introduction of the euro, greater liquidity in other major currencies, and the rising current account deficits and external debt of the United States have increased the pressure on central banks to diversify away from the US dollar. A major portfolio shift would significantly affect exchange rates and the status of the dollar as the dominant international currency. We develop a dynamic mean-variance optimization framework with portfolio rebalancing costs to estimate optimal portfolio weights among the main international currencies. Making various assumptions on expected currency returns and the variance–covariance structure, we assess how the euro has changed this allocation. We then perform simulations for the optimal currency allocations of four large emerging market countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), adding constraints that reflect a central bank's desire to hold a sizable portion of its portfolio in the currencies of its peg, its foreign debt and its international trade. Our main results are: (i) The optimizer can match the large share of the US dollar in reserves, when the dollar is the reference (risk-free) currency. (ii) The optimum portfolios show a much lower weight for the euro than is observed. This suggests that the euro may already enjoy an enhanced role as an international reserve currency (“punching above its weight”). (iii) Growth in issuance of euro-denominated securities, a rise in euro zone trade with key emerging markets, and increased use of the euro as a currency peg, would all work towards raising the optimal euro shares, with the last factor being quantitatively the most important. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 508–547.     

The Increasing Selectivity of Foreign Aid, 1984–2003

The Monterrey Consensus includes the idea that foreign aid is more effective when targeted to countries with sound institutions. We examine the extent to which foreign aid, bilateral and multilateral, is “selective” in terms of democracy and property rights/rule of law. We find that multilateral assistance is more selective than bilateral aid in targeting countries with good rule of law. “Selectivity” is a new phenomenon. During 1984–89, both bilateral and multilateral aid had significant negative relationships with rule of law; by 2000–03 this had shifted to a significant positive relationship for multilateral aid, and a positive but statistically insignificant relationship for bilateral aid.     

The Relative Importance of Employer and Employee Effects on Compensation: A Comparison of France and the United States

Using individual data on compensation, matched with establishment and firm data on performance and inputs, we compare the French and American pay systems. The compensation measures are decomposed into components related to measured individual characteristics, establishment–enterprise effects, and a residual. In France, the compensation outcomes are more compressed than in the United States. For France, individual characteristics and establishment effects explain more of the variability in compensation outcomes than in the United States. The observable and unobservable components of compensation are identically correlated in the two countries. The relations among compensation components (individual and establishment) and firm performance outcomes (value-added per worker, sales per worker, and profit per unit of capital) exhibit some important similarities and differences between the countries. Higher paid workers, either because of individual characteristics or establishment effects, are employed in firms that are more productive. Higher pay due to enterprise heterogeneity is associated with higher profitability in France but lower profitability in the United States. J. Japan Int. Econ. December 2001, 15(4), pp. 419–436. Department of Labor Economics, Cornell University, 259 Ives Hall, Ithaca, New York 14853–3901, CREST and NBER; CREST-INSEE, 15, bd Gabriel Péri, 92245 Malakoff Cedex, France, CEPR and IZA; LAMIA-TEAM, Université de Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, 106–112, bd de l'Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13, France, and Crest; and Department of Economics, University of Missouri–Columbia, 118 Professional Bldg., Columbia, Missouri 65211. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: J31, D21.     

Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher''s Commodity Points Revisited

We propose that analysis of purchasing power parity (PPP) and the law of one price should explicitly take into account the possibility of “commodity points”—thresholds delineating a region of no central tendency among relative prices, possibly due to lack of perfect arbitrage in the presence of transaction costs and uncertainty. More than 80 years ago, Heckscher stressed the importance of such incomplete arbitrage in the empirical application of PPP. We devise an econometric method to identify commodity points. Price adjustment is treated as a nonlinear process, and a threshold autoregression offers a parsimonious specification within which both thresholds and adjustment speeds are estimated by maximum likelihood methods. Our model performs well using post-1980 data, and yields parameter estimates that appear quite reasonable: adjustment outside the thresholds might imply half-lives of price deviations measured in months rather than years, and the thresholds correspond to popular rough estimates as to the order of magnitude of actual transport costs. The estimated commodity points appear to be positively related to objective measures of market segmentation, notably nominal exchange rate volatility.J. Japan Int. Econ.December 1997,11(4), pp. 441–479. Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720-3880; and Department of Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208-2600.     

A simple test of the effect of interest rate defense

High interest rates to defend the exchange rate signal that a government is committed to fixed exchange rates, but may also signal weak fundamentals. We test the effectiveness of the interest rate defense by disaggregating into the effects on future interest rates differentials, expectations of future exchange rates, and risk premia. While much previous empirical work has been inconclusive due to offsetting effects, tests that “disaggregate” the effects provide significant information. Raising overnight interest rates strengthens the exchange rate over the short-term, but also leads to an expected depreciation at a horizon of a year and longer and an increase in the risk premium, consistent with the argument that it also signals weak fundamentals. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 612–636.