Towards an integrated model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers, pressures and impacts. A feasibility study based on three European long-term socio-ecological research platforms

Effective policies to slow the rate of anthropogenic biodiversity loss should reduce socioeconomic pressures on biodiversity, either directly or by modifying their underlying socioeconomic driving forces. The design of such policies is currently hampered by the limited understanding of socioeconomic drivers of and pressures on biodiversity as well as by lacking data, indicators and models. In order to improve understanding of these issues we here propose a conceptual model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. The model is based on the drivers-pressures-impacts-states-responses (DPSIR) scheme and on the socioeconomic metabolism approach. The aim of the model is to guide research aimed at improving our understanding of socioeconomic biodiversity pressures and drivers and to serve as a basis for the development of formal, quantitative models in that field. Based on three European long-term socio-ecological research (LTSER) platforms, we analyze the model's applicability and suitability as well as data availability and research needs. These platforms are the Danube Delta Wetland System in Romania, the Doñana in Spain and the Eisenwurzen in Austria. An empirical analysis of the relationship between the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) and breeding bird richness in the Eisenwurzen demonstrates the ability of HANPP to provide a link between socioeconomic pressures/drivers and biodiversity. The analysis of the case studies underlines the potential utility of the conceptual model to guide future research into socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. However, considerable investments in monitoring and reconstruction of past trajectories as well as in model development will be required before mathematical (computer) models of the interrelation processes between society and ecosystems can be successfully deployed.     

Biodiversity pressure and the driving forces behind

Since the UNCED Conference in Rio de Janeiro 1992, the need to actively protect biodiversity is universally acknowledged. The UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) defined biodiversity as comprising ecosystem diversity, species diversity and genetic diversity, and decided for the ecosystem level as the basis for describing biodiversity. However, due to conceptual problems as much as to the lack of data, so far no comprehensive measurements of biodiversity have been developed. A single measure quantitatively describing biodiversity even seems out of reach due to the incommensurability of the three levels. This makes it impossible to directly base policy decisions on existing or future estimates of the “total size” of biodiversity. Instead, it is suggested to analyse the pressures threatening biodiversity, which can usually be measured quantitatively, and act as the interface between the socioeconomic driving forces behind them and the biological impacts. The drivers (physical primary drivers, politics and policies causing them as secondary and institutional structures as tertiary ones) do not only affect biodiversity, but a range of sustainability problems. The analysis permits to integrate biodiversity risks with broader environmental and sustainability policies, and thus to mainstream biodiversity preservation.Such an analysis is presented for Europe, naming pressures and driving forces and illustrating the close links between the causes of biodiversity pressures and other environmental problems. This way, it is possible to develop first ideas how the standard set of environmental policies must be modified and extended to cover the issue of biodiversity.     

Climate change as a threat to biodiversity: An application of the DPSIR approach

Climate change and its consequences present one of the most important threats to biodiversity and the functions of ecosystems. The stress on biodiversity is far beyond the levels imposed by the natural global climatic changes occurring in the recent evolutionary past. It includes temperature increases, shifts of climate zones, melting of snow and ice, sea level rise, droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events. Natural systems are vulnerable to such changes due to their limited adaptive capacity. Based on an analysis using the DPSIR framework, this paper discusses some of the important socio-economic driving forces of climate change, with a focus on energy use and transportation. The paper also analyses observed and potential changes of climate and the pressures they exert on biodiversity, the changes in biodiversity, the resulting impacts on ecosystem functions, and possible policy responses. The latter can be divided into mitigation and adaptation measures. Both strategies are needed, mitigation in order to stabilise the greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and adaptation in order to adjust to changes that have already occurred or cannot be avoided. One mitigation option, increased biofuel production, which is also a response to oil depletion, would change land use patterns and increase human appropriation of net primary production of biomass, thereby threatening biodiversity. By considering the first order and second order impacts of climate change on biodiversity when developing policy measures, it will be possible to integrate ecosystem and biodiversity protection into decision-making processes.     

生物入侵造成经济损失评估的研究进展

生物入侵是生物多样性减少的最重要的因素之一,同时还造成巨大的经济损失,包括直接经济损失和间接经济损失。外来入侵物种造成经济损失评估的研究有助于相关政策的制定以及社会对生物入侵问题的认识与关注。从应用角度考虑,目前国内外对生物入侵造成经济损失的评估分为两类:一类是影响评估,即生态系统服务价值丧失的评估;另一类是政策决策评估,即入侵物种防治的经济分析。文章对国内外生物入侵产生的经济影响、经济损失评估内容及方法、研究面临的主要问题及未来研究趋势进行综述和展望,以期为该领域更深入的研究建立理论参考基础。     

A bioeconomic model for determining the optimal response strategies for a new weed incursion

Invasions by non-indigenous plant species pose serious economic threats to Australian agricultural industries. When a new invader is identified a rapid response is critical, particularly if the invasive species has the ability to spread rapidly. An early decision is required whether to attempt to eradicate or contain the infestation, or do nothing and leave it to landholders to manage. These decisions should be based on economic considerations that account for long term benefits and costs. This paper describes a bioeconomic simulation framework with a mathematical model representing weed spread linked to a dynamic programming model to provide a means of determining the economically optimal weed management strategies over time, from the government’s perspective. The modelling framework is used to evaluate hypothetical case study invasive weed control scenarios in the Australian cropping systems. The benefit–cost ratios of invasion control are shown to be generally very high and clearly, there are significant benefits to be achieved by controlling highly invasive weeds when initial infestations are at a low level. Even if the invasion cannot be eradicated due to its high invasiveness or budget constraints, it still pays to maintain invasions at low levels.     

Driving forces of chemical risks for the European biodiversity

In the framework of the EU-funded research project ALARM (Assessing LArge-scale environmental Risks with tested Methods), an original method combining the DPSIR (driving forces–pressures–state–impacts–responses) framework and an analysis based on the distinction between the four spheres of sustainability (environmental, economic, social and political) has been developed. This paper presents the application of this method, called “the tetrahedral DPSIR” for the identification and analysis of driving forces of environmental chemicals risks for biodiversity, in Europe. The purpose of this methodology is to help reduce the pressures on biodiversity through modifying the driving forces behind them by offering scientific advice to policy makers. We frame our analysis in the context of the current policy, namely the implementation of REACH (Regulation on the Registration, Evaluation, and Authorization of CHemicals).     

An application of DPSIR framework to identify issues of pollinator loss

This paper is an attempt to apply the Driving forces–Pressures–State–Impact–Responses (DPSIR) framework to identify the issues of pollinator loss. The linkages between the significant pressures on insect pollinators, their underlying socio-economic driving forces and responses, with the focus on Europe, are addressed in the study. A review of literature revealed the shortage of empirical studies that prove direct links between policy responses and specific pressures on the pollinators. Based on written evidence and expert judgement, land use practices and the use of agrochemicals were regarded as the most significant pressures on different functional groups of pollinators. As demonstrated in the study, agricultural and rural development policy has been the key driving force of these pressures. The application of the DPSIR framework proved to be useful in identifying the pathway of human pressures on pollinators. The study also concludes that there is further need for specific empirical research on the effects and effectiveness of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) measures (agri-environment measures in particular) to support farming practices that facilitate the protection of the environment and the prevention of pollinator loss.     

Bioeconomic modeling for control of weeds in natural environments

When a weed invasion is first discovered a decision has to be made on whether to attempt to eradicate it, contain it or do nothing. Ideally, these decisions should be based on a complete benefit-cost analysis, but this is often not possible. A partial analysis, combining knowledge of the rate of spread, seedbank longevity, costs of control and techniques of economic analysis, can assist in making a good decision. This paper presents a decision model to determine when immediate eradication of a weed should be attempted, or more generally whether weed control should be attempted at all. The technique is based on identifying two ‘switching points’: the invasion size at which it is no longer optimal to attempt eradication but where containment may be an option; and the invasion size at which it becomes optimal to apply no form of control at all. The model is applied to a woody perennial weed in a natural environment. The results show that seedbank longevity is the main constraint on the maximum eradicable area and spread rate is the main constraint on the maximum containment area. Stochastic simulations are undertaken to derive probability distributions of costs which are than used to evaluate the effect of budget constraints on areas that can be eradicated. We find that, in the absence of a budget constraint, it may be desirable to eradicate invasions from areas as large as 8000 ha, but when budget constraints typical of those faced by agencies in Australia are introduced, feasible eradicable areas are less than 1000 ha.     

Control and the management of a spreading invader

We consider the problem of management of an aquatic invader spreading in a lake system. We assume that each year the invader can be removed from a certain proportion of invaded lakes, which depends on the selected intensity of control. Control decisions are generated and compared for an optimally controlled system and for a static optimization across asymptotic steady states. Control close to eradication of the invasive species is always optimal for invasions with relatively high damages, low rates of density dependent spread and/or low chance of additional random introductions. Control to a highly invaded steady state is optimal for those invasions with low relative damages, high chances of random introduction and high levels of uncertainty in species location. In all other cases the optimal outcome depends upon initial conditions. Comparing the relative performance of the optimally controlled system and the static optimization demonstrates situations when the differences are small and when not. When invasions are acted upon in their later stages and across certain parameter combinations a static optimization provides a reasonable approximation of an optimally controlled system. The flip-side is that optimal policies directed at an invasion in its early stages tend to provide significantly savings. The savings vary across parameter combinations, yet in these situations little useful insight will be generated without consideration of a dynamically optimized system.     

Biodiversity,natural resource accounting and ecological monitoring

The role that natural resource accounting and ecological monitoring can play in conserving biological diversity is discussed. There exists a widespread view that modifications to national income accounting procedures are crucial to the pursuit of sustainability and particularly the protection of biodiversity. However, we argue that the availability of biologically-adjusted national income figures would not, of itself, be likely to contribute significantly to the protection of biological resources. The conservation of biodiversity requires, among other things, a significantly improved understanding of the nature of environmental changes arising from imposed management regimes and the effects that these changes have on the persistence of biodiversity. On this basis, and in the context of sustainable development, we suggest that ecological monitoring should take priority over the generation of economic data.In many regions of the world sufficient ecological knowledge is available to design and implement integrated monitoring networks that can be used to track the status of many components of biodiversity and inform decisions taken over their management. We outline how this might be undertaken using a hierarchical and prioritised approach aimed, pragmatically, in the first instance at helping to preserve those ecosystems, communities and species which are perceived to be most threatened. Some emphasis is given to the Australian situation because it is the only rich megadiversity nation and it is at the forefront of the development of scientific techniques that can be used to help design soundly-based and cost-effective monitoring programs.We acknowledge the useful comments of two referees, and claim exclusive property rights in remaining errors.     

The efficiency of voluntary incentive policies for preventing biodiversity loss

Habitat loss is a primary cause of loss of biodiversity but conserving habitat for species presents challenges. Land parcels differ in their ability to produce returns for landowners and landowners may have private information about the value of the land to them. Land parcels also differ in the type and quality of habitat and the spatial pattern of land use across multiple landowners is important for determining the conservation value of parcels. This paper analyzes the relative efficiency of simple voluntary incentive-based policies in achieving biodiversity conservation objectives. This topic is important not just for biodiversity conservation but for any effort to provide a public good requiring coordination across multiple decision-makers who have some degree of private information. We develop a method that integrates spatially explicit data, an econometric model of private land-use decisions, landscape simulations, a biological model of biodiversity as a function of landscape pattern, and an algorithm that estimates the set of efficient solutions. These methods allow us to simulate landowner responses to policies, measure the consequences of these decisions for biodiversity conservation, and compare these outcomes to efficient outcomes to show the relative efficiency of various policy approaches. We find substantial differences in biodiversity conservation scores generated by simple voluntary incentive-based policies and efficient solutions. The performance of incentive-based policies is particularly poor at low levels of the conservation budget where spatial fragmentation of conserved parcels is a large concern. Performance can be improved by encouraging agglomeration of conserved habitat and by incorporating basic biological information, such as that on rare habitats, into the selection criteria.     

Evaluating the effects of area closure for recreational fishing in a coral reef ecosystem: The benefits of an integrated economic and biophysical modeling

This paper presents an integrated agent-based model of recreational fishing behavior within a reef ecosystem as a platform for the evaluation of recreational fishing management strategies. Angler behavior is described using econometrically estimated site choice models, with site choice among anglers driven by site attributes and angler characteristics. The biophysical model represents the marine reef environment as a system with different trophic levels identifying algal and coral growth as well as two types of fish (piscivores and herbivores). Ecosystem dynamics are driven by interactions within the trophic levels and interaction between fish populations and fishing activities.The model is used to simulate recreational fishing activities and their interactions with the environment. Recreational fishing sites from the Ningaloo Marine Park, an iconic coral reef system in Western Australia, are used as a case study. A set of management strategies, including “business-as-usual” and different site closure durations, are assessed for two different levels of fishing pressures. The results show that not only the effectiveness but also the distribution of management impacts across space and over time can be very different from what one would expect without the benefit of integrated modeling.     

Forward induction, evolutionary processes and behavior evolution

The paper deals with the driving forces behind behavior selection in both forward induction refinements and discrete evolutionary processes with mutations. Its main purpose is to analyse an important difference due to the support of the mutations. It shows that similar driving forces can allow to outweigh this difference. To this aim it constructs the limit Markov graph, a tool used to compute the probabilities in the limit distribution.     

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for the control of biological invasions

Biological invasions are recognised to be a problem of growing severity. Human pathogens, weeds or pests in terrestrial systems and dominant alien species in freshwater or marine aquatic systems all impose significant costs in terms of forgone output or costs of control in every major system. Like many of the other environmental consequences of globalisation, biological invasions require that decisions be taken under uncertainty. Decision-makers in such circumstances have to choose between two main strategies: mitigation and adaptation. This paper characterises invasive species problems in terms of the properties of the stochastic processes they induce. It considers how mitigation and adaptation strategies may be modelled, and identifies the conditions in which each approach may be efficient and effective.     

The Evolution and Driving Force on Integrating Environmental Protection and High-Quality Economic Development

An index system is constructed to measure the integration of environmental protection and high-quality economic development in different cities in China from 2006 to 2018, and to explore its evolution and driving forces. From the three dimensions of integration foundation, integration depth and integration performance, this paper adopts AHP-Entropy combined weighting method to build the integration index. In addition, this paper comprehensively uses exponential decomposition, comparative analysis and σ convergence and divergence analysis to explore the spatio-temporal differences and dynamic mechanisms. The results show that the overall integration level of China’s cities continues to improve, of which technological progress is the core driving force, the transformation of development mode is a crucial path, and the intensity of environmental governance is the key support. The evolution and driving forces of the integration level of first-tier cities, new first-tier cities and other cities are significantly different. Promoting integration level is a critical way for resource-based cities to break the resource curse. Urban agglomeration integration led by the growth pole can effectively improve the overall regional integration level. This paper innovates that the relationship between environmental protection and high-quality economic development is discussed from the perspective of integration, and the paths to improve the integration level of resource-based cities and urban agglomerations are identified. This paper is helpful to clarify the differences in integration levels and driving forces of different cities, and provide a reference value for the precise implementation of high-quality development and “beautiful China.”     

Biology as a Source of Non-convexities in Ecological Production Functions

Generating ecological production functions, including harvest yield functions, is a high priority research area. Most yield functions used in economics and ecology rely on convexity properties of species growth functions, but convexity is shown here to depend on whether realistic biology is incorporated. Optimizing behavior by individual organisms is connected with species population dynamics in order to derive growth functions in a general equilibrium ecosystem model. Non convexities are shown to be an inherent property of the growth functions owing to familiar biological processes including predator-prey and competitive relations, predator satiation and prey substitution. The growth functions generate yield functions that are problematic for management, because they exhibit kinked average revenue curves, discontinuous marginal revenue curves, and knife edge optimum effort levels where a small increase above the optimum effort can rapidly deplete the stock. These phenomena can be explained entirely by the underlying biological processes.     

Are cyclical patterns of international housing markets interdependent?

This paper investigates the relationships among the US, UK, and Canadian housing markets from two aspects: the driving forces of housing cycles and the structures of correlation coefficients in different phases of housing cycles. The results indicate that the structures of driving forces and correlation coefficients are deeply hinged on the international housing markets. For the US and Canada pair, the driving forces of cyclical patterns are related to each other and the regime-switching correlation coefficients are always positive. However, for the US and UK pair and the UK and Canada pair, the driving forces are independent and there is no consistent pattern for the correlations.     

近50年湖南省耕地数量动态变化研究

湖南省是全国的农业大省之一,在全国农业发展格局中具有举足轻重的地位,其耕地数量的变化直接影响到全省乃至全国的粮食安全态势。文章利用1949-1999年的统计和普查数据,分析了湖南省近50年来耕地数量动态变化及地域差异,并进一步探讨了影响耕地动态变化的驱动因子。结果表明：50年来,湖南省耕地总体呈逐年下降态势,且区域变化差异明显;其中经济发展、社会系统和科技进步构成了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子。     

工业化城市化进程中土地利用类型转换驱动力研究——以无锡市为例

文章以沿海城市——无锡为例,利用遥感影像数据和统计数据,分析了工业化、城市化不同阶段上,驱动土地利用类型转换的社会经济驱动因素。结果表明,随着工业化、城市化的阶段变化,土地利用类型转换的驱动因素及其对土地转换的影响程度也随之发生一定的变化。就案例区域而言,在工业化和城市化的前期,需求和产业成长是土地利用类型转换最主要的因素,其次是投资、城市化和农村工业化。在工业化和城市化的中期阶段,需求、产业成长、城市化是土地利用类型转换最主要的因素,其次是农村工业化、经济国际化、比较利益和投资。需求和产业成长一直是工业化城市化进程中,影响耕地转换主要的、一般的因素。而城市化则是工业化中期和城市化中期影响耕地转换的主要因素。     

Economic/ecological tradeoffs among ecosystem services and biodiversity conservation

An integrated economic/ecological model is built to address tradeoffs between biodiversity conservation and two marketable rangeland ecosystem services: cattle grazing and elk hunting. The ecology is represented by an eleven species food web in which individual optimizing plants and animals engage in competitive and predator/prey relationships. The ecological model defines a steady-state set of sustainable grazing and hunting options, and for each option, biodiversity is measured using an index defined over the eleven species. In linking the ecology to the economics, social welfare depends on grazing profits and hunter net benefits. The problem can be stated as maximizing economic welfare over two ecosystem services, subject to their sustainable use and subject to a target level of biodiversity. A numerical application with economic and biological data from the Western United States is used to determine sustainable grazing and hunting options for alternative biodiversity levels, and to select the option that maximizes welfare.