中国银行业高利润的来源:市场势力还是高效率

中国银行业的高利润究竟来源于行政垄断保护下的市场势力溢价,还是应对未来金融开放环境下的激烈竞争进行改革带来经营效率的提高,抑或是整体经济稳定增长的结果?通过对银行业系统市场势力和经营效率测度发现,银行业整体存在着较高的系统性市场势力溢价,且规模弹性小于1;银行业整体效率低下,全要素生产率平均增长为负值;银行业的高利润主要来源于行政垄断造成的行业系统性市场势力,而非因改革带来的效率提高,GDP的增长一定程度上促成了银行业的高利润。     

中国电力发展:提高电价和限电的经济影响

中国在过去20年中,经济增长和生产过程的现代化使之对电力愈加倚重。2002年以来,电力成为一个重要的经济和政治问题,电力短缺的直接后果是电价提高和限电。本文从提高电价和限电两方面讨论了研究电力短缺的影响的方法,分析了提高电价对不同工业行业和不同地区造成的影响,并使用调查数据就限电对工业的影响进行了量化分析。主要结论是,电力短缺对工业的直接影响远大于电力供给成本。在工业化水平较高、较为发达的省份,电力短缺的影响并不一定更大,因为决定影响程度的因素包括工业构成、对电力的依赖性和可用的替代品。     

Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS

We use historical industrial emissions data to assess the level of abatement and over-allocation that took place across European countries during the pilot phase (2005–2007) of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme. Using a dynamic panel data model, we estimate the counter factual (business-as-usual) emissions scenario for EU member states. Comparing this baseline to allocated and verified emissions, we find that both over-allocation and abatement occurred, along with under-allocation and emissions inflation. Over the three trading years of the pilot phase we find over-allocation of approximately 280 million EUAs and total abatement of 247 Mt CO₂. However, we calculate that emissions inflation of approximately 73 Mt CO₂ also occurred, possibly due to uncertainty about future policy design features.     

Profits and Fractal Properties: Notes on Marx,Countertendencies and Simulation Models

There are new reasons for revisiting Marx’s elaboration on the rate of profit because contemporary debates provide findings from the MEGA Project, long-term data on the rate of profit, and tools for dealing with complexity and non-equilibrium systems. This article proposes that the interplay between the tendency and the countertendencies of the rate of profit to fall can be translated into a simple system of equations, one based on each chapter of Section Three of Capital—as if Marx sought to mathematically formalise his insights. This article reviews previous debates, presents data and runs a simulation model, showing that the rate of profit behaves as fractals.     

技术冲击、二氧化碳排放与中国经济波动——基于DSGE模型的数值模拟

文章通过构建包含环境约束的动态随机一般均衡模型,分析了生产技术和环保技术冲击对一国主要宏观变量的影响。研究发现:(1)生产技术冲击对经济发展的促进作用是直接的、主要的,而对污染排放量的增长效应则是间接的、次要的,最优污染排放变动具有顺周期性;(2)环保技术冲击对经济的推动作用是间接的、次要的,而对污染排放量的限制作用则是直接的、主要的,最优污染排放变动具有逆周期性;(3)在两类冲击共同作用下,环保技术冲击的减排效应短期显著,而生产技术冲击的增长效应则长期占优,但两类冲击对全球污染存量变动的影响都十分微弱,经济波动周期维持在十年左右。     

上海港对直接腹地经济的作用研究——基于海港产业部门构建的投入产出模型

通过改造海港投入产出表,将海港活动业务部门详细分解为港口建筑业、港口交通运输及运输服务业、航运服务业和海港政府管制业,并进行投入产出分析,清晰地显示海港的不同业务活动对直接腹地经济的直接影响和间接影响,以此相加来计算海港对直接腹地经济的贡献份额,并对上海港进行实证分析。结果表明,在所有业务活动中,海港交通运输及运输服务业贡献比例和绝对值均为最大,其次为海港航运服务业,最低的为海港建筑业。     

Offset Credits in the EU ETS: A Quantile Estimation of Firm-Level Transaction Costs

International carbon offset certificates were cheaper than European Union Allowances, although they were substitutes within the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Thus, firms had a strong incentive to use offset certificates. However, a considerable number of firms did not exhaust their offset quota and, by doing so, seemingly forwent profits. While most literature on emissions trading evaluates the efficiency of regulation in a frictionless world, in practice firms incur costs when complying with regulation. In order to assess the relevance of trade-related fixed transaction costs, this study examines the use of international offset credits in the EU ETS. It establishes a model of firm decision under fixed (quantity-invariant) entry costs and estimates the size of such costs rationalizing firm behavior using semi-parametric binary quantile regressions. Comparing binary quantile results with probit estimates shows that high average transaction costs result from a strongly skewed underlying distribution. For most firms, the bulk of transaction costs stems from certificate trading in general, rather than additional participation in offset trading.     

东扩对中国欧盟贸易发展的影响与对策

新入盟的中东欧新成员国与中国经济发展水平相近,产业结构类似,同中国在贸易领域具有较大的竞争性,东扩成为影响中欧贸易的重大事件.本文对东扩之后中欧贸易的发展分别进行了理论和实证分析,认为尽管理论分析的结果不容乐观,但是实际上由于诸多因素的共同作用.东扩之后中欧贸易仍然保持了良好的发展势头.本文还对东扩对中欧贸易的负面影响、进行分析,提出必须要高度重视这些负面影响,并对东扩后中欧贸易发展提出了针对性的对策建议.     

股票价格对上市公司绩效的影响

本文在探讨股票价格与公司绩效关系的基础上,结合我国证券市场实际,引入资本结构和股权结构等因素综合考察对公司绩效变化的影响程度.研究结果表明,资本结构和公司绩效在5%的置信水平下存在显著性的负相关关系;第一大股东持股比例、股权集中度对公司绩效的影响在统计意义上都是不显著的;制造业和综合类股价对上市公司绩效的影响比较显著,其它行业不存在显著性差异,且行业平均敏感系数和股价的历史波动率并不存在相关关系.     

Emission Trading with Fiscal Externalities: The Case for a Common Carbon Tax for the Non-ETS Emissions in the EU

A government is fiscally constrained if it is unable to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance the first-best level of public spending. When involved in emission trading, a fiscally constrained government will potentially seek to close its fiscal gap through emission permit sales. This fiscal incentive therefore generates a fiscal externality in the permit market that is endogenous to the extent of fiscal constrainedness among the participating countries. Our theory explains how, and when, fiscal externalities may be expected to arise. Moreover, we show that in a permit market equilibrium with fiscal externalities, the initial allocation of emission permits between countries will affect: (1) the price of emission permits, (2) the global distribution of abatement effort, and (3) total greenhouse gas mitigation costs. This is contrary to the textbook model of emission permit markets. Our findings are especially relevant for the EU which is about to allow for trading in emission rights between EU member countries for all emissions outside the European Emissions Trading System.     

The Impact of Monetary Policy and Housing-Purchase Restrictions on Housing Prices in China

This paper examines the level and volatility effect of monetary policy on housing prices in China utilizing a novel set of housing price indices constructed by (Fang, H., QuanlinGu, W. X., & Zhou, L.-A. (2015). Demystifying the Chinese housing boom. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30. University of Chicago Press.). We find that in the long-run, average housing prices react positively to inflation, money supply and bank lending growth, and negatively to the reserve requirement ratio and benchmark lending rate. Housing prices in Tier 1 cities respond more sensitively to monetary shocks relative to Tier 2 and 3 cities, possibly due to surging demand and limited supply under housing-purchase restrictions (HPR). We further study the volatility effect of monetary shocks using the GARCH model and find that the benchmark lending rate, reserve requirement ratio and money supply growth have strong negative impact on the volatility of housing price growth. Our benchmark results remain robust after incorporating the HPR policy variable in the estimation, with a significant negative effect of HPR on housing price growth in Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities. Lastly, we conclude with recommendations on future monetary policy design and implementation, with a specific focus on the heterogeneous characteristics of China’s housing market.     

贸易自由化对就业的影响——来自第三产业和个体私营企业的数据

大部分研究贸易对就业影响的中文文献关注的均是制造业行业,忽视了贸易对第三产业就业的影响,同时所采用的制造业行业数据中也没有包含私营和个体企业的就业人数,因此也忽略了贸易对私营和个体企业就业的影响。本文利用1998-2007年中国的省际分行业数据,采用联立方程组模型,研究了贸易自由化对第三产业就业和个体、私营企业就业的影响。研究结果显示,虽然服务业贸易占贸易和服务业产值的比重很小,对就业的直接影响不大,但是贸易自由化可以通过拉动经济增长有效促进第三产业就业,特别是对零售、仓储、建筑、居民服务、餐饮、住宿、电力煤气和水的供应这些行业的作用尤为明显。同时,贸易自由化程度的加深对制造业行业和第三产业的个体、私营性质企业的就业促进作用也很显著。     

金融危机下中国经济系统的内外部冲击影响——基于虚实两部门一般均衡模型的研究及模拟测算

国际金融危机下的石油价格波动、财政金融政策、结构和技术变化等内外部冲击对中国经济系统的影响越来越受到政府部门和中外学者的密切关注.为了能从数量上把握冲击的直接和间接效果,文章基于一个实物部门与金融部门相统合的金融可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,运用比较静态和比较动态的方法定量分析它们对中国经济的影响,并据模拟结果给出相关政策含义,从而为政策制定提供更充分的理论依据.     

市民收入不均与城市住宅价格空间分布——理论模型与数值模拟

文章通过对市民收入分布特征和市民购房能力与意愿的假设,将市民收入和住宅价格结合起来,从理论上探讨了市民收入不均对城市住宅价格空间分布的影响,并进行了数值模拟。分析表明,商业聚集导致城市从中心到外围房价呈逐渐下降的外在空间规律,是由市民收入差异及其购房竞价这个"内因"实现的。收入不均程度的变化会引起城市不同区位的房价变化,市民总收入一定时,基尼系数增大会导致城市中心房价上升和边缘房价下跌;高基尼系数下出现多次购房的可能较大,这将抬高相关区位的房价。     

流动性影响资产价格与消费价格的传导机制

对我国1998年1季度到2009年1季度的资产价格与消费价格的波动进行实证分析,发现货币供应量增加首先带来房地产价格上升,约两年后,消费价格指数开始上升,说明货币供应通过资产价格再传导到消费价格。在当前流动性再次增加的情况下,要考虑其对资产价格及通货膨胀预期的影响,并可实行分类增加信贷的政策,防止资产价格泡沫化。     

The Impact of Higher Education Funding on Socio-Economic Variables: Evidence from EU Countries

Education is an important vector of smart growth, sustainable development, and economic competitiveness. Higher education plays an important catalytic role in human capital development, and ensures a better insertion of individuals in the socio-economic environment. However, at present, it faces complex challenges in the context of public financing contraction. The aim of our article is to investigate the level of higher education funding and to reveal the impact it has on the socio-economic environment. The novelty of our article resides in the multifaceted analysis we propose combining both qualitative and empirical methods, in the comprehensive sample of EU countries, and in the large time horizon we consider. We first assess the relationship between public financial resources allocated to higher education and socio-economic indicators by means of an exploratory technique, called cluster analysis. Our findings reveal a pattern of similarity among EU countries by building smaller but homogenous groups. We then use the vector autoregressive method to complement the cluster analysis by providing further information on the strength, sign, and causal relationship between government expenditure in tertiary education and several socio-economic indicators. We perform an analysis for each country in the sample. Our findings are mixed, with some countries displaying a greater sensitivity of public financing (channeled to higher education) to changes in socio-economic indicators.     

The Impact of Biotechnology Pervasiveness and User Heterogeneity on the Organization of Public Sector Research

What is the appropriate institutional set-up for knowledge generation and use in biotechnology? This paper contributes to the debate by addressing the combined--and potentially conflicting--influence, upon the definition of institutional policies and structures, of two of biotechnology's distinctive features. First, its science-based nature, which defines a set of requirements concerning the production of knowledge and the ability to use it; and second its wide applicability, which requires the consideration of the diversity of technological and organizational capabilities displayed by the whole range of potential biotechnology users. In particular the study investigates whether and to what extent institutional models, whose emergence was largely associated with the behaviour of advanced industrial users from science based sectors, are suitable to the requirements of a more heterogeneous set of biotechnology users, and therefore can withstand a variety of industrial specializations. This issue is addressed empirically by analysing the evolution of the scientific and technological infrastructure of Portuguese biotechnology, as well as the strategic positioning and actual behaviour of individual research and technology organizations. The paper discusses the effectiveness of the current institutional model in Portugal and the implications of a mismatch between biotechnology institutional research frameworks and the industrial structure, for organizations, individual researchers and firms.     

The Impact of Biotechnology Pervasiveness and User Heterogeneity on the Organization of Public Sector Research

This paper examines aspects of the contractual relationship between the principal actors in the construction of the Channel Tunnel. Based on interviews with key participants and a wealth of public and semi-public documentary data, the paper presents a case study illustrating the interconnect-edness of contractual form, process and trust, and the management and performance of complex, large-scale technological projects. Theoretically, the research is informed by, a cross-disciplinary approach, taking in contributions to the management of complexig and interrfirm relationships associated with the markets and hierarchies debate in economics and in organization theory, and research on the management of scale from the technology policy and project management literatures. More specifically, the paper builds upon Stinchcombe's findings that:(a) contrary to the Williamsonian view contracts between firms are employed in the practice of administering complex undertakings (i.e. rather than ‘hierarchy’ but (b) to enable such contracting to perform effectively, ‘hierarchical’features are devised by the parties in a bid to ‘structure’ their joint ‘incompetence’ at managing the unknowns and unknowables of complex projects, and of selecting appropriate contract forms, In the case of the Channel Tunnel development, the nature of the various contractual arrangements is described. An evaluation of the extent and qua&; of hierarchical aspects o f the contractual relationship between Eurotunnel, TML (the principal constructing contractor), financial, governmental and other organizations is conducted. This is carried out in terms of the ease or diffculty experienced in managing changes in design specfication, monitoring work that was executed or resoluing disputes over the interpretation of contractor performance criteria, for example. Ultimately, the paper points up the extent to which differing expecta-tions from the project, adversarial contractual relations and lack of trust between the client and the main contractor (against a background of ‘fast track development’ contributed to problems of cost-effectively designing, constructing and coordinating Channel Tunnel technology. The conclusions serve to indicate how and why hierarchical elements of contracts may exacerbate ‘incompetence’ in the management of complex or large-scale technology projects, rather than ‘structure’ it, to the detriment Of overall project performance.     

汇率波动对国际贸易的影响——基于出口加工企业的微观视角

本文构建了一个汇率不确定环境下的加工贸易企业模型,结论是汇率波动幅度增加对企业出口决策的影响取决于企业生产的附加值,汇率波动幅度的上升会增加高附加值企业的产出和出口水平,减少低附加值企业的产出和出口水平.对2005年7月人民币汇率改革以来我国12类出口商品月度数据的实证检验与上述理论模型基本相符.随着人民币汇率的逐步市场化,人民币汇率波动幅度将逐渐加大.因此,要减少汇率波动对产出和出口的不利影响,我国需要进一步提高加工贸易的产品附加值,多从事技术密集型产品的生产.     

Emissions Trading, Wealth Transfers and the Wounded Bull Scenario in Power Generation

Electricity generators accept that emissions trading is fundamental to meeting CO₂ reduction targets. But unless a percentage of permits are allocated, existing generators will face non-trivial wealth transfers. Seldom contemplated in academic works are the adverse economic consequences of an all-auction approach to emissions trading. Using Victoria to illustrate, we find that once CO₂ prices exceed $17.50/t, the marginal coal generator facing large wealth transfers will withhold generating capacity to raise prices and recoup stranded investments, thus becoming a 'wounded bull' in the market place. This has material welfare implications with modelling results indicate an intermediate-run 300 per cent increase in wholesale power prices.