TESTING FOR INTEGRATION IN EUROPEAN COMMUNITY AGRICULTURAL PRODUCT MARKETS

The degree of spatial market integration in European Community agricultural product markets is investigated. The methodology is based on co-integration analysis. A two-step testing procedure is applied to test the existence of the ‘Law of One Price’ which should be in force if these markets are truly integrated. The results show that market integration has not been achieved in a number of cases even when MCAs are subtracted from the price series used.     

The Spatial Integration of Paddy Markets in Vietnam

This paper examines whether there is spatial integration between and within paddy markets in the north and south of Vietnam. The empirical model developed uses estimates of transfer costs to generalise Ravallion's model of spatial market integration to allow for threshold effects. A sequential testing strategy is used to test for market segmentation, the number of thresholds, long‐run integration, informational efficiency and the Law of One Price within an error‐correction framework. We find neither threshold effects nor weak evidence of paddy market integration between northern and southern Vietnam. There is, however, evidence of both threshold effects and stronger market integration within the Red and Mekong River deltas. Whenever price spreads exceed their thresholds, at least 60% of price changes are transmitted between regional markets within a month. Nonetheless, the instantaneous version of the Law of One Price only holds for a few regimes and market pairs. These results suggest that national level policies cannot be relied upon to stabilise or support paddy prices in Vietnam. Instead, policies need to be designed with the specific production, consumption and marketing characteristics of northern and southern Vietnam in mind.     

Competition between farmed and wild salmon: the Japanese salmon market

This article examines the Japanese market for salmon. This market is of interest, since it is the largest and most diversified salmon market in the world with wild and farmed species, from Europe and South and North America, competing in the same market. In contrast to the European Union (EU)‐ and U.S.‐markets, there have been neither trade conflicts nor trade restrictions. The Japanese market can hence provide information about the impact of bringing substantial quantities of a new product into a market, and the effect of large‐scale aquaculture on traditional fisheries. In this article, market integration between wild and farmed salmon on the Japanese market is examined, using both bivariate and multivariate cointegration analysis. Tests for the Law of One Price are also conducted. The results indicate that the species are close substitutes on the market, and that the expansion of farmed salmon has resulted in price decreases for all salmon species.     

Testing for the LOP under nonlinearity: an application to four major EU pork markets

This article develops an econometric procedure to test the validity of the Law of One Price (LOP) under nonlinearity and to distinguish between its strong and its weak version. The procedure is applied to four major EU pork markets using weekly prices from 1991 to 2008. The empirical results suggest that the markets are well integrated, with deviations from the steady‐state price differentials corrected nonlinearly. The LOP is valid for all market pairs and for the pair Germany–Spain it holds in its strong version.     

Seasonality and spatial integration in agricultural (product) markets

The recent testing approaches of the ‘Law of One Price’ which ate based on co-integration analysis are modified by incorporating the seasonal components of the agricultural price series into the testing procedure. Application of the modified testing approach to the soft wheat market of live European Union member stales produces mixed results as some of the markets turn out to be integrated while in some cases a unified market cannot be assumed. I hese results differ in some cases from those obtained by co-integration tests which ignore seasonal unit roots.     

Integration in the Norwegian pulpwood market: domestic prices versus external trade

Pulpwood from Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) traded domestically in Norway, imported to Norway, or exported from Norway is investigated with respect to commodity homogeneity and market integration. The prices imply that pulpwood from Norway spruce is a homogenous commodity, and the three price series are analyzed with respect to market integration. Using the cointegration estimator two cointegrating vectors are found within the system, and the weak Law of One Price can be imposed on domestic- and import prices. Imports are weakly exogenous to the two other variables, indicating that international pulpwood prices leads the domestic market.     

Market Integration of Fish in Europe

This paper examines market integration between fish species in Europe, taking international market integration into account. Based on Juselius (2006) , market integration is found both on the fresh and frozen markets. The Law of One Price is in force on the fresh market within the segments of flatfish and pelagic fish. Assuming transitivity, a loose form of market integration is identified between 13 fresh and seven frozen fish species, and the relative prices are found fairly stable. The policy implication is that catch limitation measures implemented through the Common Fisheries Policy have limited and conditional effects on prices, because of the large size of the market and varying market integration. Therefore, many fishermen are not ‘compensated’ by price increases as a result of catch limitation measures.     

World market integration for export and food crops in developing countries: a case study for Mali and Nicaragua

Using a generalized error correction model, this article measures and compares market integration for export cash crops versus imported food crops for Mali and Nicaragua, and computes transmission elasticities between changes in the goods’ border and domestic prices. Both Mali and Nicaragua obtain the bulk of their export revenue from a particular agricultural commodity—cotton for Mali and coffee for Nicaragua—and both import the same key staple food of rice. To reap the economic gains from this trade specialization, the two countries’ agriculture must be well‐integrated into world markets. The two countries present an important policy contrast that affects their degree of world market integration and price transmission. In Mali, a parastatal enterprise controls its cotton industry, while Nicaragua has less state direction over agriculture. Reflecting this difference, the results show that for both its main export and import commodity, Nicaragua is more integrated into world markets and has higher price transmission than Mali. The results for Nicaragua also show much higher integration and price transmission for its main agricultural export (coffee) than its major import (rice).     

Assessing the U.S. Market Economics for a Cultured Flounder,Paralichthys sp., Industry

There is considerable interest in the culture of flounder because of its high retail market value, the established worldwide market for flatfish, and the ability of flounder to grow in fresh or brackish water. The author assesses the U.S. market potential for a cultured flounder, Paralichthys sp., industry. Regression analyses were used to estimate both the price and income elasticity of demand for flounder. Demand forecasting was used to predict effective annual future demand for flounder. Although the U.S. flounder market is large and expanding, there are indications of excess supply suppressing prices below profitable levels for aquaculture producers. Demand is price inelastic, so an increase in supply from aquaculture production will produce a disproportionately large decrease in price, reducing total producer revenue. Unless niche markets are targeted or an export market is developed, the outlook for large-scale flounder aquaculture in the United States is not economically promising.     

Pricing-to-market in NSW rice export markets

The Ricegrowers' Cooperative Limited is a single-desk seller of NSW Japonica rice on the export market. Confidential monthly price data supplied by the Cooperative were used to examine 'pricing-to-market' in four of its major export markets. The hypothesis of a competitive market was rejected. The Cooperative has been able to vary mark-ups over different markets and with respect to the importer's currency in each market. The exchange rate results in particular suggest that the Cooperative has been able to exercise market power to obtain price premiums.     

基于三元边际分析的中国柑橘出口增长研究

目的 柑橘产业是中国乡村产业振兴的重要组成部分,近年柑橘出口开始面临不利的贸易形势,系统分析中国柑橘出口增长特征及规律具有重要意义。方法 文章采用三元边际分析方法,基于2002—2017年中国柑橘出口近60个市场的数据,将出口增长因素分解为市场扩展效应、出口数量效应、出口价格效应,然后对出口增长特征进行研究。结果 研究发现,出口价格效应、出口数量效应是驱动中国柑橘出口增长的主要因素,而市场扩展效应不明显;比较而言,出口价格效应相对稳定,而出口数量效应波动较大;不同时间段首要驱动因素不同,2002—2009年出口数量效应是首要驱动因素,而2010—2017年出口价格效是首要驱动因素;中国柑橘出口价格持续上升并且已经高于全球出口平均价格,导致出口数量出现下降态势,出口额增长停滞。结论 深耕已有出口市场,积极开拓发达国家市场;丰富产品出口结构,弥补和降低出口价格上涨劣势。     

Empirically Testing the Law of One Price in an International Commodity Market: A Rational Expectations Application to the Natural Rubber Market

The Law of One Price (LOP) is an important ingredient in theories of international trade and exchange rate determination. An important shortcoming of the existing empirical literature is that parity is typically assumed to hold contemporaneously. This overlooks the fact that international commodity arbitrage takes place over time as well as across spatially separated markets. Recognizing this fact, we expect to see parity holding for expected prices. A model which incorporates the expectations of commodity arbitragers is constructed and used to test the LOP in the natural rubber market. Results indicate that the inclusion of expectations may be of value when considering the LOP.     

Is It Worth Getting Labeled? The Case of MSC-Certified Seafood

Research has examined consumers’ attitudes toward ecolabels, but there is a lack of research examining whether niche ecolabels give a competitive advantage in consumer markets. The authors aim to fill this gap by exploring the four conditions of market success (evidence of price premiums, market share, access to retailers, and elasticities) established in the literature. Three varieties of MSC-certified fish are studied. Differences are observed across the three varieties that lead to the following conclusions: MSC-labeled products do not systematically sell at a premium; price has an inelastic effect on the demand of certified national brands, but increased distribution has a very elastic effect on demand; and MSC-labeled products do not experience seasonal effects. The consumer market is responding favorably to the label, but ecolabeled fish is in an introductory stage. Price premiums vary; the retailer’s brand is playing a prominent role.     

Multiple Inference and Market Integration: An Application to Swedish Fish Markets

This paper, in contrast to earlier studies, tests market integration using a methodology that accounts for the multiplicity problem inherent in testing several time series. This method minimises the risk of finding spurious evidence of market integration. We examine market integration among 12 fish species in Sweden by applying cointegration tests, which identify market integration for two separate clusters of species. Furthermore, we find that the Law of One Price holds for 6 of the 12 species considered.     

中国松香产品对外贸易特征与结构分析——基于2001~2011年数据

对2001²011年中国松香产品对外贸易特征及结构进行实证分析研究的结果表明:中国松香产品贸易以出口为主,进口量相对较小;近年来松香出口额增长迅猛,但进口额增长乏力;国际松香价格一路高涨,而中国松香产品出口价格远低于进口松香价格;松香进出口均主要集中于380610和380690两类松香,出口主要集中于欧盟、美国、日本和韩国,出口市场集中率较高。因此,提出主动实施松香深加工和品牌战略、控制松香出口规模、多元化出口市场战略、关注新兴市场等对策建议。     

实际价格、粮食可获性与农业生产决策——基于农户模型的分析框架和实证检验

按照市场一价定律的逻辑,所有生产者和消费者在市场上面临同一个价格并据此作出生产或消费决策。然而,农产品生产者和消费者的双重身份却导致农户在同一个农产品市场上得到或付出不同的价格,其差异主要取决于运销成本。因此,影响农户生产或消费决策的是其实际获得或付出的价格而非统一的市场价格。此外,出于对粮食安全的追求,农户所在地区的...     

A structural time series analysis of US broiler exports

A structural time series model is used to determine the dynamic characteristics, forecasting properties, and policy implications of factors affecting the US broiler export market. The emphasis is on international market responsiveness. The analysis indicates that in addition to the explanatory variables a trend component has been vital in the expansion of the broiler industry during the study period. The results indicate that export markets are more price responsive than the domestic markets, that interventions in the Canadian and Mexican markets reduce their imports, and exchange rate changes have significant impacts on US exports.     

A time series analysis of Danish markets for pork, chicken, and beef

We offer a first-time empirical depiction of Danish dynamic meat price/quantity transmissions by formulating, estimating, and testing a VAR model of market-clearing quantities and prices of the Danish pork, chicken, and beef markets. The analysis illuminates how these markets dynamically handle shocks, and it is demonstrated that: (i) the three meats are close substitutes; (ii) chicken and pork market shocks have own-market and cross-market effects that occur rapidly and swiftly, while beef market shocks have more enduring impacts on pork and chicken markets; (iii) prices are in general more endogenous than quantities; and (iv) the price of chicken is much more endogenous than the prices of pork and beef.     

Product Development Strategy in the Danish Agricultural Complex

A study of the Danish foods industry shows that producers of food products have built up and maintain development of end-user products in interaction with customers in distant sophisticated markets. Concurrently, the Danish agro-industrial complex has been singled out in other studies as a paradigmatic example of how crucial a sophisticated home demand is for the development of an industrial complex. The apparent contradiction arises from the fact that companies interact in two networks: The global industrial network links various functions which again are each part of a local network in which the functions produce and utilize sticky and fast-changing information about production and markets respectively. It is precisely by not interacting with home market end-user demand, but rather by deriving a home market business-to-business demand from changing end-user markets that the Danish agro-industrial complex has avoided being insulated. The managerial implication is that a company in search of partners for joint development in global agro-industrial networks can realize a competitive advantage by applying a market view that is euclidean upstream and equidistant downstream.     

Price anomalies and effectiveness of macro control policies: Evidence from Chinese housing markets

Since the housing market reform in 1998, China has experienced a rapid growth. Continuous surges in housing prices have been criticized by the public. In light of deviation of the price from its intrinsic value, the central government implements a series of policies to intervene the housing market, but makes little difference. Little vigorous academic work on the price anomaly and impact of macro-control measures has been conducted for housing markets in urban China. This research employs econometric methodologies to investigate the interactions between housing price and market fundamentals, in order to identify the existence of price anomaly in the housing markets of Beijing and Shanghai during 1998–2012. In addition, we conduct asymmetry analysis based on an advanced econometric model to investigate the impact of macro-control measures on price and volume. Our findings suggest that the market inefficiency is indicated by lack of interaction between housing supply and demand in Beijing and Shanghai. The opposite directions of impulse responses of price to income in the two cities are mainly attributed to the different market structures. While price anomalies are found occasionally, the housing prices are considered reasonable in Beijing and Shanghai for most of the time. Furthermore, the analysis on the role of macro-control policies in Chinese housing markets reveals that government interventions regulate the market ineffectively at the current stage.