Equilibrium pricing and advertising strategies for nondurable experience products in a dynamic duopoly

The quality of many consumer nondurable goods or services is sufficiently complex or obscure that consumers cannot completely verify the true quality in a single usage. For such ‘experience’ products or services, the accumulated consumer consumption experience of a brand is an important determinant of its sales or market share. The market share of a brand is in turn directly influenced by its own and the competitive price and advertising strategies, given the different levels of quality (among other factors). In this paper, we investigate the impact of the aggregate consumption experience on the firm's dynamic pricing and advertising strategies by developing a formal game-theoretic model of a dynamic duopoly. The model of competition does not yield explicit closed-form expressions for the dynamic price and advertising paths of the two firms. Hence, we simulate the equilibrium paths using a discrete-time algorithm. Our simulation results provide interesting insights into the dynamic equilibrium price and advertising paths, under a variety of realistic competitive scenarios.     

MARKET SHARE ANALYSIS: THE CASE OF THE BRITISH BREAKFAST CEREALS INDUSTRY

In this paper the authors apply simple econometric techniques to market share models for brand products in the British breakfast cereals market. Brand product price and advertising coefficients, as estimated by regression equations, are explored in the context of assumed profit and market share maximization, and an attempt is made to evaluate empirically firms' actual marketing strategies.     

Advertising conjectures and the nature of advertising competition in an oligopoly

We estimate advertising conjectural variations within a simultaneous system that includes advertising and demand equations for cigarette manufacturers. This allows insight into advertising decisions in an oligopoly. The advertising conjectures are positive and statistically significant, indicating that firms do not hold Cournot conjectures as is usually assumed in theoretical models. Instead, firms perceive that their rivals will respond directly to their own advertising. We also find evidence that, while cigarette advertising rearranges market share by increasing firm-level demand relative to rivals' demand, it also increases market demand for cigarettes. Hence there are positive spillovers from advertising in the cigarette industry.     

Winner Take All: Competition, Strategy, and the Structure of Returns in the Internet Economy

In this paper, we develop an economic rationale for the following stylized fact: Web-based firms spend profligately on advertising and marketing and usually lose money. Our rationale is based on the winner-take-all structure of high fixed cost, low marginal cost, markets for information goods. This market structure ensures that market participation and investment policy are highly stochastic. Moreover, if a firm chooses to participate in a Web market, it is optimal to act very aggressively through saturation advertising. Although increases in advertising costs reduce the probability of entry, once the decision to enter is made, firm strategies are insensitive to advertising price. Consistent with empirical studies of the profitability of internet firms ( Hand, 2001 ), our model predicts returns that are highly positively skewed, that is, even the firms that survive the competition for market position have a small chance of huge gains combined with a large probability of very modest returns. In dynamic competition, firms weakened by early rounds are less likely to challenge in subsequent rounds. However, when a challenge is attempted, it is always aggressive. In addition, because large expenditures in the first period produce valuable strategic real options in later periods, which are treated as expenses using traditional accounting methodology, the financial valuation of Internet firms may actually be negatively related to performance when using standard accounting measures of profitability that fail to capitalize these strategic real options.     

空间生产理论与城市户外广告监管

基于空间生产的理论,分析了城市户外广告媒体的空间生产层次,即符号消费的广告生产和广告媒体的空间生产。在此基础上,阐述了政府、市民与广告活动主体之间的利益博弈,认为其根源在于空间生产中的资本霸权、体制冲突和政府的权力滥用,所以必须要强化广告空间资源的规划监管,完善利益分享与利益补偿机制,构建横向与纵向的利益协调机制。     

冠生园集团“大白兔”硬糖：品牌化决策的选择

本案例描述了冠生园集团＂大白兔＂硬糖系列的上市决策经过。＂大白兔＂品牌原只有牛奶软糖产品,而其主要的竞争对手先后纷纷推出了牛奶硬糖系列。冠生园集团为了适应市场变革、扩大市场份额,拟推出定位于年轻白领市场的＂大白兔＂硬糖系列＂优浓＂新品牌。在新产品上如何使用＂大白兔＂和＂优浓＂品牌名称就成为一个基本的决策问题。冠生园集团市场部采取比稿方式征求方案。最终,立新公司推荐担保品牌战略,强调广告口号与歌曲的方案脱颖而出。然而,＂优浓＂品牌推出市场6个月后,销量始终不太乐观。于是,冠生园集团市场部委托优迪咨询公司进行市场调查,探究个中原因。＂优浓＂品牌到底应该采用何种品牌化模式呢？     

Share,price and category expenditure—geographic market effects and private labels

Focusing on the interaction between national brands and private labels, this paper has two main empirical contributions: (i) a simultaneous system of demand (share), price and expenditure equations is estimated, and (ii) differences in the structure of the local geographic market are incorporated into the analysis. The former represents an important step in understanding the complete nature of private label and national brand interaction, while the latter is important for understanding the impact of the local retail environment on market behaviour. IRI scanner data from 1991 and 1992 are used to estimate a five‐equation system across 135 food product categories and 59 geographic markets. The results suggest that concentration at both the manufacturer and retailer level can significantly affect private label and national brand price. However, while increased retailer concentration is associated with higher national brand and private label prices, higher manufacturer concentration is associated with higher national brand but lower private label prices. Increases in national brand advertising has the effect of raising national brand price and share, but lowering private label price and share. This is consistent with previous research and suggests that advertising and local market conditions play a significant role in the ability of national brands to price at a premium over private labels. Finally, marketing decision variables, such as display activity and private label distribution, can have an important impact on total category expenditure. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A hazard rate analysis of Russian commercial banks in the period 1994–1997

The number of commercial banks in Russia increased at a fast pace after the 1988 banking reform. Many of these banks lacked supervision and operated with dangerously low funding capital. After the 1995 liquidity crisis, many of these banks disappeared. In this paper, we investigate the determinants of the hazard rates of banks active on the Moscovian deposits market during the 1994–1997 period. We find that market share and duration have negatively affected the hazard rate, while the deposit interest rate has had a positive effect. The market share and interest rate effects are robust to controlling for ‘financial clans’.     

Customer Directed Advertising and Product Quality

This paper studies the relationship between three key elements of the marketing mix, namely, price, product, and promotion, in a model where a seller employs informative advertising to launch a new product. We propose a fairly general advertising technology for the study of three promotional strategies—mass, imperfectly targeted, and customer directed advertising (CDA). We find that both the private and the social incentives to use distinct advertising strategies are aligned, and that sales are likely to be promoted through CDA. Compared to mass advertising, with CDA the social planner reduces quantity and downgrades quality whereas the seller sometimes upgrades it. Our model of targeting with endogenous product quality provides some new insights into the way the transition from mass to specialized advertising can affect market outcomes. Quality distortions imply that (i) even if CDA increases the market price, the degree of market power need not increase and (ii) CDA may yield a welfare loss even if it leads to a lower market price.     

Advertising persuasion in dual markets

Many firms operate in ‘dual’ markets by selling the same products and services to both individual and institutional customers. Can they also persuade both with the same advertising content? The authors investigate this issue by examining a unique database including information on institutional and individual mutual fund flows, advertising frequency, and (persuasive and informative) advertising content. They find that the effects of persuasive advertising content on institutional and individual fund flows are similar and sizeable in terms of elasticity. In addition, they find that only the individual market responds to informative advertising content. Hence, dual‐market firms can use persuasive content to achieve advertising economies.     

Advertising a product to face a competitor entry: a differential game approach

We analyze a market in which advertising is the dominant marketing tool to create market share. We assume that an incumbent firm dominates the market during an initial stage, and that a new competitor is going to enter the market. In particular, we analyze the different advertising policies that the incumbent firm can adopt, before and after the entry of the rival. We explore three possible behaviours. In the first scenario the firm knows that the competitor will arrive at a given instant. In the second one we assume the original firm to be surprised, in the sense that it does not anticipate the entry of the opponent either because it does not expect the competitor to arrive, or it is not prepared to react before the entry takes place. Finally, in the third scenario, the original firm knows that the competitor will enter at a constant rate. We characterize a differential game model and compare the firms’ behaviours in a strategic perspective.     

Price competition in the spatial real estate market: allies or rivals?

This paper examines whether real estate firms can avoid price competition when properties in the vicinity are priced by allies. An oligopoly model with differentiated products generally suggests that real estate firms engage in price competition with their spatially closest rivals. Yet, they can raise property prices when the market share of their allies increases. To test this prediction, a spatial autoregressive model with spatial autoregressive disturbances, including a share of allies in the vicinity, is estimated using data on the prices of residential condos in central Tokyo, Japan. The model prediction is supported by the empirical results. In the data set, the magnitude of the market share on property prices increases with the expansion of the size of the spatial market.     

Dynamic Competition with Experience Goods

This paper considers dynamic competition in the case in which consumers are only able to learn about their preferences for a certain product after experiencing it. After trying a product a consumer has more information about that product than about untried products. When competing in such a market firms with more sales in the past have an informational advantage because more consumers know their products. If products provide a better-than-expected fit with greater likelihood, taking advantage of that informational advantage may lead to an informational disadvantage in the future. This paper considers this competition with an infinite horizon model in a duopoly market with overlapping generations of consumers. Two effects are identified: On one hand marginal forward-looking consumers realize that by purchasing a product in the current period will be charged a higher expected price in the future. This effect results in reduced price sensitivity and higher equilibrium prices. On the other hand, forward-looking firms realize that they gain in the future from having a greater market share in the current period and compete more aggressively in prices. For similar discount factors for consumers and firms, the former effect is more important, and prices are higher the greater the informational advantages. The paper also characterizes oscillating market share dynamics, and comparative statics of the equilibrium with respect to consumer and firm patience, and the importance of the experience in the ex post valuation of the product.     

Minimum Differentiation in Commercial Media Markets

We examine a model of locational choice in commercial media markets. Commercial media (stations) compete for audiences with their choice of programming variety in order to attract advertising revenues from advertisers. These advertisers (producers) compete in a differentiated product market and rely on advertising to inform consumers about their product. We use the model to show that media have incentives to minimize the extent of differentiation between them. This incentive is an implication of the assumed role of advertising as information and as an ultimate nuisance to the audience. When stations minimally differentiate their programming offerings, producers choose lower levels of advertising. Consequently, lower levels of product information are available to consumers, permitting producers to gain higher margins on product sales. As a result, stations can negotiate higher payments for advertising space.     

Optimal targeting with entry

We study an advertising agency's optimal choice of targeting technology with endogenous market structure, namely, when targeting changes firms' entry strategies into the advertising and product market. We show that the advertising agency faces a trade‐off between demand‐expansion and profit‐dissipation: The former arises as targeting induces more entry and increases the demand for advertising; the latter refers to that targeting relaxes competition by inducing more differentiation. We show that perfect targeting is not optimal for the advertising agency. Compared to social optimum, the advertising agency underinvests in targeting when investment cost is low and overinvests when targeting is costly.     

Forecasting the effect of an environmental change on market performance: An intervention time-series approach

Forecasting the effects of changes in advertising or pricing strategies on a company's sales or market share is an important task faced by marketing managers. This paper applies a time series approach, intervention analysis, to several marketing policy applications illustrating the flexibility and value of the method for testing hypotheses and providing forecasts. Empirical evidence is presented for two different marketing situations, one that involves a change in advertising and another that involves offering price specials.     

When (not) to indulge in ‘puffery’: the role of consumer expectations and brand goodwill in determining advertised and actual product quality

We analyze why some firms advertise product quality at a level different from the actual quality of a product. By considering the interacting effects of product quality and advertising, we develop a dynamic model of consumer expectations about product quality and the development of brand goodwill to determine the optimal values for the decision variables. The model parameters are determined based on prior literature and we use numerical techniques to arrive at the solution. We then derive conditions under which a firm will find it optimal to overstate or understate product quality. The results suggest that quality may be overstated in markets characterized by high price sensitivity, low quality sensitivity, low brand loyalty, and high source credibility, suggesting the need for vigilance on the part of consumers, upper level managers and regulatory authorities in such market conditions. This is important because current regulatory resources are insufficient to reduce deceptive advertising practices (Davis JJ. 1994. Ethics in advertising decision‐making: implications for reducing the incidence of deceptive advertising. Journal of Consumer Affairs 28 : 380–402). Further, the law of deceptive advertising prohibits some advertising claims on the ground that they are likely to harm consumers or competitors (Preston IL, Richards JI. 1993. A role for consumer belief in FTC and Lanham Act deceptive advertising cases. American Business Law Journal 31 : 1–29). Also, Nagler (1993. Rather bait than switch: deceptive advertising with bounded consumer rationality. Journal of Public Economics 51 : 359–378) shows that deceptive advertising causes a net social welfare loss and a public policy effectively preventing deception will improve social welfare. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Supply chain decisions and coordination in the presence of an imperfect spot market

This study considers a supply chain consisting of a commodity supplier and a final product manufacturer with uncertain demand. In addition to purchasing from the supplier through a forward contract, the manufacturer can adjust their inventory by trading the commodity in an online spot market after observing the actual demand. However, the spot market is imperfect in that transactions cannot be certainly realized and come with additional transaction costs. Furthermore, the spot price is volatile such that overly relying on the spot market is unwise. To investigate how the spot market affects the decisions and coordination in a supply chain, we develop a game-theoretical model incorporating spot trading. We derive the optimal ordering decision in a centralized supply chain, as well as the supplier's and manufacturer's equilibrium pricing and ordering decisions in a decentralized supply chain. The impact of the imperfect spot market on the optimal decisions and profits is analyzed. This study also demonstrates how the supply chain can be coordinated in the presence of an imperfect spot market. Finally, a numerical analysis is performed to examine the analytical results. Our results indicate that the spot market can generally improve the performance of the centralized supply chain and benefit the manufacturer in the decentralized one. However, it can be detrimental to the supplier. The supply chain can be coordinated by a revenue-sharing contract, and both parties' profits can be improved. Our findings suggest that the manufacturer could take advantage of the spot market, and the supplier should attempt to integrate or coordinate the supply chain to share the benefits of spot trading.     

The Low‐Quality Advantage in Vertical Product Differentiation

By assuming a triangular distribution of consumers' willingness to pay for quality, this paper makes use of the stylized fact that low‐income households are more numerous than high‐income households, and thus, income distributions are right‐skewed. Accordingly, we present a straightforward two‐firm, two‐stage vertical product differentiation model with quality‐dependent marginal production costs, where the firm offering the low‐quality product has the larger market share and profit than the top‐quality competitor. This can be termed low‐quality advantage and may explain the success of large retailers serving the masses by offering low‐quality products. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic competition with consumer inertia

We study a framework where two duopolists compete repeatedly in prices and where chosen prices potentially affect future market shares, but certainly do not affect current sales. This assumption of consumer inertia causes (noncooperative) coordination on high prices only to be possible as an equilibrium for low values of the discount factor. High discount factors increase opportunism and aggressiveness of competition to such an extent that high prices are no longer sustainable as an equilibrium outcome. Moreover, we find that both monopolization and enduring market share and price fluctuations (price wars) can be equilibrium path phenomena without requiring exogenous shocks in market or firm characteristics.