How does a Change in the Excise Tax on Beer Impact Beer Retail Prices in South Africa?

This article uses price data, collected by Statistics South Africa, to estimate the effect of a change in the excise tax on the retail price of beer. We find strong evidence that the excise tax on beer is overshifted to consumers. The pass‐through coefficient is estimated at 4.83 (95% CI: 4.02; 5.64) for lager, and at 4.77 (95% CI: 4.04; 5.50) for all beer (which includes dark beer). This implies that for every R1/unit increase in the excise tax, the retail price increases by about R4.80/unit. Of the 23 brand‐packaging combinations considered, the pass‐through coefficients vary between 2.39 and 10.05 (median = 5.30). The majority of the price change in response to a tax change occurs immediately, and prices have fully adjusted two months after the excise tax increase becomes effective. Pass‐through differs substantially across packaging types. The pass‐through coefficient on 750 ml bottles is substantially lower than that of 330 ml (or 340 ml) cans and 6 × 330 ml (or 6 × 340 ml) “six‐packs.” The overshifting of the excise tax has positive implications for public health policy, since they increase the effectiveness of alcohol taxes as a tool to reduce the (excessive) consumption of beer.     

Can Beer Taxes Affect Teen Pregnancy? Evidence Based on Teen Abortion Rates and Birth Rates

Economists have investigated the effects of increased alcohol taxes on various alcohol-related phenomena like traffic fatalities, but to my knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the effects of beer taxes on teen pregnancy outcomes, namely abortion and birth rates. The study employs state-level data for 15-19-year-old women for the years 1985, 1988, 1992, and 1996. The smallness of the panel imposes some constraints on the statistical methods used. Results indicate that higher beer taxes have statistically significant negative effects on teen abortion rates, though the magnitudes of the effects are quite small. Effects on birthrates are statistically insignificant. This suggests that increased beer taxes may help prevent some unwanted pregnancies that would typically be terminated via abortions rather than culminating in live births. However, the small magnitudes of the effects strongly caution against relying on increased beer taxes to noticeably reduce teen pregnancy rates.     

The relative variability of state income and sales taxes over the revenue cycle

The cyclical variability of state income and sales taxes is examined for each state by estimating the degree to which each tax follows the state's overall revenue cycle. Income taxes are found to be consistently more cyclically variable, and less predictable, than sales taxes. Factors explaining differences in cyclical variability across states are then identified in a regression model. States without income taxes have less cyclically variable revenues than states with both income and sales taxes, suggesting that cyclical variability in states without income taxes could not be reduced by broadening the tax base to include an income tax.     

Comparative rate of alcohol consumption in European countries

The article contains a study of the consumption of alcohol in European countries. It contains an analysis of prices and taxes. The rate of excise duties for alcohol collection of the total tax revenues and GDP by European countries has been estimated.     

The Later You Pay,the Higher the k

This paper shows the importance of the age path (life-cycle timing) of any tax for the accumulation of capital in the economy. Income, consumption, and wage taxes differ in their age paths as well as their incentive effects. This paper studies how the differing age path of each tax affects the capital accumulation of the economy in an empirically calibrated life-cycle model. We investigate lump-sum “age” taxes and find in every case that the later the person pays tax, the higher the k of the economy. To analyze the life-cycle timing effect of conventional transactions-based taxes (income, consumption, and wage), we replace each tax with a lump-sum age tax that has the identical age path of tax payments over the life cycle. We find that the timing effect is quantitatively important and often causes the impact of a tax on capital accumulation to be very different from what would be predicted from the incentive effect.     

International spillover effects of consumption taxation

This paper investigates the international spillover effects of a revenue-neutral increase in consumption taxes coupled with a reduction in wage taxes in a two-country open economy. Many economists feel that the consumption tax would be an improvement over the income tax. This paper provides counterexamples to the conventional wisdom. We show that conversion to a consumption tax may reduce capital accumulation and may transmit a negative externality to the rest of the countries in the world economy under certain conditions: endogenous labor supply and bequests.     

吃喝腐败、税收寻租与企业成长——来自中国企业的经验证据

税收的弹性空间使低成长率的企业能够借助吃喝腐败进行税收寻租以促进其成长,这破坏了公平的市场竞争环境,导致了资源误置。本文运用2005年世界银行对中国企业的调查数据,分析吃喝腐败和税负对企业成长的影响。分位数回归结果发现,重税负阻碍企业成长,吃喝腐败有助于缓解企业税负对其成长的不利因素。但这种润滑剂作用主要体现于低成长的企业,使其能在权力庇佑下继续生存,对高成长的企业这种作用并不明显。在运用工具变量解决税收的内生性问题和一系列的稳健性检验后,以上结论仍然成立。进一步根据企业规模和制度质量进行的分样本研究发现,吃喝腐败缓解企业税负以促进其成长的润滑剂作用在中小企业和制度质量低的地区表现得更为突出。因此,结构性减税与建立公平的市场竞争环境是释放企业成长空间的关键。     

How Similar are Youth and Adult Alcohol Behaviors? Panel Results for Excise Taxes and Outlet Density

This paper estimates linear probability models for drinking prevalence and binge drinking by youth, young adults, and adults by using state-level estimates for 1999–2003 from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health. The regression models contain explanatory variables for economic influences (alcohol taxes, outlet density, income), demographics, and regulatory variables. The main results are, first, a positive relationship exists among youth and adult alcohol behaviors. Second, state-to-state variation in real beer taxes does not negatively affect youth behaviors. Third, higher outlet densities positively affect behaviors by young adults and adults, but do not affect youth. Fourth, several regulatory variables have a negative effect on drinking prevalence and bingeing by youth and young adults, including state liquor monopolies, Sunday closing laws, and 0.08 BAC laws for drunk driving. Fifth, attendance at sports events does not increase drinking prevalence or bingeing.

The double dividend from carbon regulations in Japan

Using a multisector dynamic CGE model, this paper examines the double dividend from carbon regulations in Japan. The model has 27 sectors and goods (eight goods generate carbon emissions) and covers 100 years (from 1995 to 2095). When carbon regulations are introduced, pre-existing taxes are reduced, keeping government's revenue constant. Our main findings are summarized as follows. First, the weak double dividend arises in all scenarios. This means that by using revenues from carbon tax to finance reductions in pre-existing distortionary taxes, one can achieve cost savings relative to the case where the tax revenues are returned to households in lump-sum fashion. Second, the strong double dividend does not arise from reductions in labor and consumption taxes, but it does from reductions in capital tax. The second result is attributable to the nature of the pre-existing tax system in Japan where capital taxes are more distortionary than labor and consumption taxes. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (3) (2007) 336–364.     

SOME THOUGHTS ON INDIRECT TAX EFFECTS IN SOUTH AFRICA*

Whereas income tax is the product of 19th Century thought on State revenue, indirect taxes and property taxes go back to ancient times. This is not surprising, for in underdeveloped countries consumption and property are more readily ascertained than income, which is wholly or partly received in the form of subsistence income or payment in kind.     

Uncertainty and Optimally Uniform Commodity Taxes

This paper examines the implications of uncertainty for the structure of optimal commodity taxes in the presence of a linear income tax. Consumers face uncertain income and commit to consumption of some goods before the resolution of uncertainty and to others after. Preferences are separable between labor and consumption goods. We prove that optimal commodity taxes are (i) uniform within the category of noncommitted goods if their subutility is logarithmic; (ii) uniform within the two categories if both subutilities are logarithmic; and (iii) nonzero across categories, with the tax rate on precommitted goods being lower than the tax rate on noncommitted goods.     

An Efficiency Analysis of Proposed State and Local Sales Tax Reforms

With few exceptions, state and local general sales and use taxes are levied primarily on tangible goods. Secular trends in production and consumption of goods and services, as well as legislated exemptions and exclusions, have eroded sales tax bases. A number of reforms designed to reduce base erosion have been proposed, including base broadening, conversion to a consumption tax, and wholesale replacement of sales taxes with income taxes. Each proposal has potential to shore up sales tax bases. From an economic perspective, the policy choice should turn on efficiency, equity, and simplicity. This paper reports on a computer analysis of efficiency effects. The results suggest that (i) base broadening can increase economic efficiency, (ii) converting to a consumption tax base dominates base broadening, (iii) replacing sales taxes with higher income taxes could produce large efficiency losses, (iv) base broadening could generate efficiency gains even if untaxed remote sales become a “sizable” fraction of total sales, and (v) even partial base broadening could produce sizable efficiency improvements.     

The elasticity of the tax system of Zambia, 1966–1977

This paper studies the built-in responsiveness of the major types of taxes in Zambia to movements in their bases, particularly how it affected the contribution of these taxes to offsetting the decline in revenue from the mining sector over the sample period. Income taxes and domestic consumption taxes are shown to be elastic with respect to their proxy bases; the opposite holds for import duties. These findings are explained, inter alia, by the growth of the industrial and service sectors, rapid growth in the consumption of bottled beer, and the impact of the government's policy of import substitution.     

Poverty issues for zero rating VAT in South Africa

Governments often include equity considerations when determiningrates for value added taxes (VAT). This paper explores the implicationof current and proposed tax exemptions in South Africa fromthe perspective of their impact on the expenditures of the poorand on the calorie and protein consumption of low-income households.Maize, which is currently exempted from VAT, is shown to bethe best choice for low tax rates from both the standpointsof equity and the impact on the food consumption of the poor.In contrast, lower tax rates on fluid milk, which is currentlyexempted from VAT, and meat, for which an exemption has beenproposed, are not good vehicles for assisting the poor. Thepaper illustrates the revenue forgone with zero tax rates onthese commodities and compares the tax relief for the poor andchange in nutrients consumed from alternative tax exemptions.     

税收政策对居民消费的“异质性”效应——基于规模结构双重视角下的实证分析

在全球经济形势愈加严峻及中央实施"双循环"新发展格局的背景下，充分发挥税收政策对居民消费的驱动作用具有重要意义。以往基于常参数计量经济模型的研究忽略了不同经济时期税收政策对居民消费的"异质性"效应。文章采用DAG递归预测的方差分解法，对于税收政策与居民消费间的动态因果关系进行识别，并构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型，分别从税收规模和税制结构视角出发，探究税收总量、不同税系、不同税类以及不同税种对居民消费的时变效应。研究发现：（1）不同时期税收政策对居民消费的影响程度差异较大，经济萧条时期税收政策对居民消费的影响并不显著，危机后影响程度大幅提高并长期稳定在较高水平。（2）从税收规模来看，税收政策对居民消费产生极为显著的"非凯恩斯效应"。从税制结构来看，直接税的扩张对居民消费产生显著的促进效应；商品税及其内部消费税、增值税的扩张显著"挤出"消费，关税轻微"挤入"消费，近年来增值税的"挤出效应"大幅增强；个人所得税对消费的"挤入效应"显著强于企业所得税；财产税的总体扩张对消费产生"挤出效应"，但占比相对较高的房产税、契税和土地增值税并未"挤出"消费。因此，政策当局应适度降低商品税税负水平、逐步下调个人所得税税率、完善财产税制。     

Tax Incidence in Vietnam*

This paper examines the incidence of taxation in Vietnam, using data from the Living Standards Survey of 1997–1998 and an input–output matrix for 1997. The tax system in 1998 was slightly progressive, taking the equivalent of 7.8percent of spending for households in the lowest, and 10.3percent from households in the highest expenditure quintile. The replacement of the turnover tax by a value‐added tax in January 1999 made the system marginally more progressive, and the falling importance of taxes on trade has had a negligible effect on the overall incidence of the tax system. The tax system is progressive overall because business income taxes fall mainly on better‐off households; and low‐income households rely heavily on home consumption, which is untaxed. Against this, agricultural taxes and fees are highly regressive. The recent phasing out of the agricultural land use tax is making the tax system more progressive; however, efforts since 2004 to limit price increases for motor fuels have effectively provided a relatively greater subsidy to rich than to poor households.     

我国开展碳税征收有关问题探讨

我国已成为世界最大的能源消费国与全球第二大二氧化碳CO2排放国,开征碳税节能减排的号角日渐吹响。本文从庇古税和双重红利理论出发,在简要回顾了国际社会不同碳税政策优劣的基础上,结合我国国情论证了我国开展碳税征收的重要意义和现实可行性,提出了我国开展碳税政策的三大原则和长短不同时期的税制要素设计方案。     

Estimating the Corrective Tax for Goods whose Consumption Affects the Consumer’s Health

Taxing goods whose consumption has an adverse impact on the consumer’s health appears to be gaining support. But the social benefit from taxes on these goods is debatable. This paper considers what the corrective tax on such a good is and applies this theory to one good whose health effects are well established. More specifically, we produce a formula for computing the corrective tax on a good whose consumption may adversely affect the health of the consumer, and then use this formula to calculate the corrective tax for one such good, cigarettes.     

广东省税收问题探析

广东省税收地位十分重要,连续14年税收总量全国第一,但是广东省税收存在的问题也是不容忽视的。本文充分利用广东省的税收数据,分析了广东省的税负水平与发达国家相比,远远偏低的;广东省的主体税种“生产型增值税”已经不能适应广东省经济发展的需要;广东省内外资企业所得税标准不统一影响了广东省公平竞争的经济环境。     

Taxes,the Speed of Convergence,and Implications for Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy

Previous studies suggest that income taxes do not affect the convergence speed in neoclassical and new growth models. Those studies use very simple tax structures. This paper shows that a relation between taxes and convergence speed emerges if tax benefits are included in standard macroeconomic models. A welfare example suggests that the economic impact could be large even if the absolute size of the effect of taxes on convergence speed is small.