Can Market Potential Explain Regional Disparities in Developing Countries? Evidence from Turkey

Regional disparity is one of the important characteristics of the Turkish economy. This study examines the impact of market potential on the regional differences in Turkey by investigating wages in the manufacturing industry for 1987 and 2000. Evidence suggests that market potential is an important determinant of inequality in Turkey. In addition, public–private decomposition reshapes the dispersion of wages supportive of rising heterogeneity in the private manufacturing industry. This increases the explanatory power of market potential, which is observed to be high in western Turkey and diminishes toward eastern Turkey. Our findings highlight that during the postliberalization era of the 1980s, Turkey's regional inequality concern transformed into a structural problem which can be explained by provincial market potential. Moreover, our results underline that the modern geography framework, which has been tested for developed economies, is able to elucidate the regional differences in a developing country suffering from persistent imbalances.     

“金砖四国”经济周期互动与中国核心地位——基于SVAR的实证分析

"金砖四国"作为抗衡世界经济旧秩序的新生力量被寄予厚望,而四国之间政治经济的差异性使人们对其合作前景产生疑问。本文研究发现,差异性并没有阻碍它们成为紧密互动的群体,在中国核心的影响下四国经济周期形成高度的协同性和互动性。SVAR模型的脉冲响应分析显示,中国经济冲击效应对其他三国都有明显影响,并且冲击效应在4个国家中最强;方差分解显示,中国经济冲击分别可以解释巴西、印度、俄罗斯经济波动的60%、46%、27%。     

International co-movements and business cycle transmission between Korea and Japan

This study examines the economic relationship and interdependence between Korea and Japan. Using macroeconomic data, an event chronology, and trade flows, I examine the question, are business cycles transmitted from Japan to Korea, and/or from Korea to Japan? And, how has that transmission changed over time? The study uses structured vector autoregressions (SVARs) to analyze monthly data 1960.01–2002.01 on industrial production, prices, interest rates, money supplies, and exchange rates. Japanese business cycles are found to have a moderate effect upon business cycle fluctuations in Korea, and that influence seems to be increasing over time. J. Japanese Int. Economies 18 (1) (2004) 57–83.     

Uneven centuries: Turkey's experience with economic development since 1820

This article examines the economic development of Turkey from a comparative global perspective. With the help of GDP per capita and other series, it shows that Turkey's record in economic growth and human development since 1820 has been close to world averages and a little above developing country averages. The early focus of the article is on the proximate causes—average rates of investment, below‐average rates of schooling, low rates of total productivity growth, and low technology content of production—which provide important insights into why GDP per capita increases were not any higher. For the deeper causes, the article emphasizes the role of institutions and institutional change. Turkey's formal economic institutions had been influenced by international rules since the nineteenth century, and these rules did not always support economic development. Turkey's elites also made extensive changes in formal political and economic institutions. Formal institutions were only part of the story, however. The direction of institutional change also depended on the political order and the degree of understanding between different groups and their elites. When the political system could not manage the recurring tensions and cleavages between the different elites, economic outcomes suffered.     

Restructuring European union trade with central and eastern European countries

Central and eastern European countries (CEECs) participate in the European economy with trade shares of the European Union (EU) and levels of intraindustry trade comparable to peripheral EU countries. However, the opening of CEECs has induced increased specialization in EU countries, which contrasts with the development in previous decades. This partially explains the cautious approach to the eastward enlargement in the EU. Furthermore, CEECs are more similar to each other than to EU countries. The pattern of the CEECs' trade with the EU resembles that of Turkey. Trade diversion is likely to present a significant burden for countries omitted from the first wave of the enlargement.     

日本与欧盟经贸关系:现状与趋势

日本与欧盟均为发达经济体,在世界经济中占有重要地位。二战后,日欧之间一直保持密切的经贸关系,在贸易投资等领域的相互依存度较高。英国因处于主要国际金融中心和欧盟"桥头堡"的地位,吸引了大量日本企业。随着英国公投决定脱欧、特朗普政府推行"美国优先"和贸易保护政策、新冠疫情突发和蔓延,全球经贸体系重构加快。日本积极扩展对外经贸关系,2018年3月推动达成CPTPP,同年7月与欧盟签署日欧EPA。日本此举的目的除了获取传统意义上的经济利益之外,更为看重的是塑造和引领新时期的国际经贸规则。展望日欧经贸关系,在不发生意外的情况下,今后日本对欧盟贸易将呈扩大之势,与英国经贸关系会显著增强,在欧洲的投资及产业链供应链布局将出现调整,而"一带一路"建设客观上将助力日欧经贸合作。     

Analysis of Brexit and its policy lessons for Asian integration

Galvanised by the devastation of the Second World War, European countries achieved a historically unprecedented and unparalleled level of regional economic integration in the post-war period. Intensive cooperation between the two biggest powers of continental Western Europe, France and Germany, lay at the core of Europe's seemingly relentless momentum towards integration, crystallised by the European Union (EU). The Franco-German alliance also provided strong eadership and sense of direction for the EU, which gained further traction with the admission of Central and Eastern European states after the fall of communism and the establishment of a monetary union among many of its members. However, more recently, the European integration process no longer seems unstoppable or inevitable. Most shockingly, the United Kingdom, a core EU member and the EU's third largest economy, has opted to leave the union, triggering the ‘Brexit’ process. Nor is Brexit the only sign of growing fractures within the EU. The current standoff between the EU and Italy over Italy's unwillingness to rein in its fiscal deficit is just one additional example of the loss of momentum. The central objective of the paper is to examine EU's past successes and current problems from the perspective of Asian countries, in particular ASEAN+3 countries that have achieved some measure of integration, although well below that of the EU. Both past successes and current problems hold valuable lessons for ASEAN+3 countries as they chart their own course towards regional integration. Given that the level of integration among ASEAN+3 is much lower than that of the EU, it would be unwise to draw lessons, positive or negative, without the proper context. Nevertheless, the European experience can provide valuable insights for Asia's integration process.     

METHOD OF ANALYZING BUSINESS CYCLES IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF SLOVENIA

In this paper, we studied cyclical patterns in a transition economy. We introduced a dynamic perspective into the analysis by applying multivariate wavelet analysis. The wavelet covariance and wavelet correlation were defined and applied to the analysis of business cycles as an alternative to the traditional cross‐spectrum analysis. The main findings indicated that there is a significant business cycle component in aggregate economic activity and that business cycles are asymmetric and highly synchronized with the EU cycle. Additionally, it was found that three distinctive periods of business cycle synchronization exert an important impact on the properties of a business cycle.     

International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission in ASEAN

This study investigates the international transmission of business cycles among the ASEAN countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, and between the ASEAN nations and their major trading partners, the United States, Australia, Japan, and the European Union. The research uses trade flows to show the pattern of economic interdependence, and principal components analysis, vector autoregressions, and spectral analysis to explore the possibility of a unique ASEAN business cycle. Binational VARs are used to examine the relative impacts of each country upon the others. Spectral analysis is used to check for the possibility of “mode-locking” between the countries that may serve to bring about some synchronization. Interestingly, there is evidence of the existence of a specific ASEAN regional business cycle. However, the VARs give only weak evidence of transmission of business cycles among the ASEAN economies and between the ASEAN economies and their major trading partners. The apparent weakness of the transmission is explained by the fact that commodity price fluctuations, wars, and major political disturbances, due to the process of nation-building, have interrupted the natural generation of business cycles, dominated the interdependence effects between nations, and hindered the measurement of international business cycle transmission. J. Japan. Int. Econ., September 1999, 13(3), pp. 230–253. Department of Economics, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia 23529 Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: F41, F47, E32.     

土耳其外贸战略新发展与中土经贸关系

在经历了2000～2001年的短暂金融危机之后,土耳其经济近年来恢复了高速增长的势头,特别是对外贸易发展尤为迅速。土耳其经济的发展既得益于其国内的经济改革,也归功于其成功的外贸战略调整。这些调整主要是在巩固与传统盟友——美国关系的基础上,进一步加大"入盟"力度,重视同周边的中东、中亚、非洲等国家的经济联系,增强在伊斯兰世界的影响力,同时积极拓展同环太亚洲国家的经贸合作。2005年土耳其启动了新的对华贸易政策,中土正在重新认识和发现对方,双边关系正在进入一个"新时期"。     

Global Quota System and China＇s Textile and Clothing Industry

I. Introduction As a developing country, textile and clothing goods remain one of the most important sources of China’s exports since the opening up to the outside world and economic reform at the end of the 1970s. The contribution of textile and clothing exports to China’s total exports hit its record in the middle of the 1980s. In 1987, the share of these two types of goods in China’s total exports was 31.13 percent. From 1986 to 1995, their share in China’s exports was more than 30 pe…     

An empirical investigation on the temporal properties of China's GDP

This paper employs a structural time series model designed with three components of stochastic seasonality, trigonometric expression of cyclicality and local linear trend to investigate the evolutionary process of China's GDP. In particular, the model is able to detect the stop–go feature of China's economic growth, i.e., growth cycle, as well as business cycle. The empirical result suggests that most variation in China's macroeconomic performance came from business cycle. The investigation of the three components along with historical events suggests that the Chinese economy had been largely influenced by political activities up to the early 1990s. In the mid-1990s China entered a period of stable and highly growing economy, thanks to the economic reform and the successful implementation of macroeconomic policies. However, since the mid-2000s China has become more sensitive to the turbulences in international markets. In the foreseeable future, the challenge facing China is a more volatile economy with possible slowdown in the economic growth, although the growth rate would still be high compared to developed economies.     

全球金融危机与欧洲经济的困境

论文探讨了全球金融危机对欧洲的冲击与影响,认为美国次贷危机所引发的全球金融危机对欧洲经济带来的衰退比美国更甚。论文从欧洲经济长期存在的矛盾在危机中集中爆发以及欧盟在国际金融体系中缺乏远见卓识两大方面分析了其中的原因。论文还对欧盟经济的复苏前景及未来经济增长的出路作了分析预测,认为如果欧盟不能在创新以及以更开放的心态来对待发展中国家的崛起上作出努力和调整,欧盟中长期经济发展的前景不容乐观。     

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on China： Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications

This paper applies a structural vector autoregression analysis to quantify the impact of the global financial crisis on China. It is found that the impact is indeed sizeable： a 1-percent decline in economic growth in the USA, the EU and Japan is likely to lead to a0. 73-percent decline in growth in China. The article discusses whether the current measures of fiscal stimulus are adequate to offset the sharp decline in external demand Although there is little doubt that the massive fiscal stimulus will largely offset the significant shortfalls in external demand, the current growth pattern in China will be increasingly unsustainable in the long term. China ＂s reform cycles suggest that external shocks are often opportunities for structural reforms. Therefore, the crisis could also be a catulyst for rebalancing China ＇s economic structure so as to return the economy to a sustainable path.     

Finland and the question of West European economic integration, 1947–1961

Abstract

The study deals, on one hand, with the international politics connections, and, on the other, the endogenous economic policy implications of Finland's relationship with West European economic arrangements from the Marshal! Plan up to the FINN-EFTA Agreement. In the 1950s, the Finnish economy was, in fact, a closed economy, albeit highly dependent on foreign trade. Finland's international position in the Soviet sphere of influence imposed restraints with regard to participation in international economic integration. Finland, for example, remained outside the Marshal! Plan and the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC), and even Nordic cooperation was a delicate matter from the point of view of relations with the Soviets. However, the protectionist foreign trade policies, consisting of both tariffs and quantitative restrictions, explain at least as much of the relative isolation of the Finnish economy. In these circumstances, Finland's participation in EFTA cooperation, within the framework of the FINN-EFTA agreement, from 1961 onwards was the decisive turning point towards an opening economy.     

中国与欧盟反倾销实体法的差别分析

我国《反倾销条例》与欧盟的反倾销法存在着不少区别,实体法中存在着非市场经济国家出口产品"正常价值"的确定、进口商品价格的可比性因素、损害确定方面、倾销与损害之间因果关系的确定方式、反规避措施、公共利益的界定等六个方面的主要区别。究其原因,有的是立法技术、经贸水平等方面的原因,还有的是立法价值取向的原因,欧盟反倾销调查的价值取向是满足资产阶级的经济利益,并不是追求贸易自由和中低收入者的利益。     

Growth cycles and business cycles of the Chinese economy through the lens of the unobserved components model

We build upon the most recent development in the literature and estimate a comprehensive set of univariate and bivariate Unobserved Components models to study the varying long-run growth rate and output gap of the Chinese economy for the period of 1952–2017. We find that the long-run growth rate varied substantially, and thus the growth cycles played an important role in the Chinese economy. Specifically, the long run growth rate accelerated since the late 70s, peaked in the early 90s, and since then has continuously declined except for several years right after China's entrance into the WTO. We also find that although the recent 4-trillion-Yuan economic stimulus package helped to sustain the economic growth temporarily it appeared to have accelerated the decline of the long run growth rate. We also find that the potential growth rate is estimated to be slightly above 8% as in 2017, but the output gap has become negative since 2015 and this recession at the business cycle frequency continuously deepened until the end of the sample.     

欧盟贸易政策的发展趋势及对中欧经贸关系的影响

欧债危机发生以来,欧盟经济饱受债务危机之害,经济严重下滑,失业率节节攀升。为了刺激经济发展,欧盟对其贸易政策做了一系列调整,影响了中欧经贸关系的发展。本文总结了欧债危机发生后欧盟贸易政策的发展趋势,分析了其贸易政策变化对中欧经贸关系的影响,进而提出加强与欧盟沟通、积极进行自贸区谈判等对策,以促进中欧经贸关系的发展。     

Making Sense of the Costs and Benefits of Brexit: Challenges for Economists

The UK’s decision to leave the European Union will have a wide-ranging effect on the British economy, but the scale and sequencing of the likely effects are hard to gauge. The uncertainties surrounding how a country separates itself from a regional economic bloc have posed challenges to the economics profession about how best to analyse the many consequences. The paper discusses the main lines of relevant economic argumentation, and reviews the evidence from studies of the likely effects of “Brexit”. It then considers how the UK’s economic linkages with the EU might evolve and examines some of the ensuing political economy challenges. The concluding section ponders the role of economists in so contentious a political development.     

Regional Self-reliance and Economic Development: The Pembrokeshire Case

This paper describes the outcome of an investigation to identify the scope for innovation and improvement of local economic interdependence in Pembrokeshire through greater self-reliance. It outlines a strategic framework identifying collaboration between various economic stakeholders supported by institutional actors, and provides an assessment of the potential impact of increased self-reliance on the growth and development of the Pembrokeshire economy. The paper concludes with more generalised observations regarding the lessons to be learned for self-reliance strategies in peripheral regions.