The effects of changing U.S. MFN status for China

The Effects of Changing U.S. MFN Status for China. — This paper focuses on the effects of the U.S. not renewing Most Favored Nation (MFN) trade status for Chinese imports. An applied general equilibrium model is used to simulate the increase in tariffs from the column 1 (MFN) to the column 2 (non-MFN) duty level. Using 1992 data, the results show Chinese exports to the U.S. drop by approximately $11 billion, or over 50 percent. The U.S. and China both experience a decline in real income. While these results suggest MFN withdrawal would have a larger detrimental effect on the Chinese economy than on the U.S. economy, the estimates do not include Chinese retaliation.     

Dumping on Free Trade: The U.S. Import Trade Laws

The passage of the Uruguay Round implementing legislation represents a natural opportunity to review the policy goals of the U.S. import trade laws, to assess how well current laws achieve those objectives, and to explore possible reforms. I argue that there is a variety of policy concerns justifying a circumscribed set of import trade statuses. The relevant U.S. laws, however, have largely become divorced from such national welfare considerations and are now too often a mechanism for furtive protectionism. The Uruguay Round effected some (marginal) improvements but left the fundamental structure of the laws unchanged. I discuss possible reforms in the final section of the paper.     

美国贸易调整援助制度:演变、实施与绩效

贸易调整援助是美国贸易法授予行政当局的六项贸易救济措施之一,其目的旨在为促进进口竞争产业生产要素的有效流动、合理配置和充分就业提供支持,以缓和此类要素的贸易保护主义压力。因此,这是一项立足国内自身调整而非对进口产品实施限制的亲贸易政策。该制度自1960年代正式建立至今,尽管存在争议,但整体呈不断完善和扩张态势,美国官方和学界对之始终予以高度关注。本文认为,尽管该制度是发达国家应对进口冲击的国内调整措施,但其实践与经验对作为出口大国的中国在外部需求波动敏感产业的调整中同样值得借鉴。     

美国贸易逆差的福利效应研究——基于OLG和R-C-K理论的实证分析

本文从促成美国贸易逆差的因素之一,即美国政府财政赤字的角度,以世代交叠模型和拉姆赛-卡斯-库普曼理论为基础,构建相应的计量模型,对美国贸易逆差的福利效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:美国政府财政赤字的确在一定程度上促成了其持续贸易逆差;持续的贸易逆差对当前和将来福利水平的提高有着积极的促进作用,并且不存在所谓的福利水平的代际转移;中国对美贸易顺差是互利双赢的贸易结果。根据上述结果,本文提出了政策启示及进一步研究的方向。     

后危机时代美国外贸政策的调整及其影响

国际经济危机后,美国政府大力调整外贸政策,确定国家出口战略,力图提升国际竞争力,文章对美国外贸政策调整的基本内容、背景及影响进行了分析,指出了美国政策调整的隐形贸易保护主义倾向,并认为它无益于美国国内产业竞争力的提升。     

美国服务贸易的环境效应——以出口为例

本文以当今世界服务业发展水平最高的美国为例,在对跨境服务贸易和外国附属机构服务贸易分类比较的基础上,通过对2002年6种主要污染物的12个服务业部门的污染排放进行基于8个主要贸易伙伴的国别计算,横向比较美国服务出口对本国造成的环境影响,借此重新认识美国各服务业部门参与国际贸易的环境污染状况,在此基础上提出环保约束下美国调整服务业发展格局及优化对外服务贸易地理的若干政策建议。     

人民币汇率对中美双边贸易的影响——基于多边汇率与双边汇率的研究

本文运用协整向量自回归模型(cointegrating VAR)、误差修正模型(VEC)和方差分解等计量方法,研究人民币对美元双边实际汇率、人民币多边汇率变化与中美双边进、出口及贸易差额的关系,并在模型中引入供给弹性和政策变量以提高检验的准确性。研究结果表明:人民币汇率是影响中美双边贸易的重要因素,人民币汇率升值可以改善中美双边贸易不平衡,其效应在短期内即可显现,但对双边进、出口的影响则取决于人民币对美元双边实际汇率变化与多边汇率变化的综合比较,两国经济增长均将扩大我国对美出口和美、中贸易逆差,而贸易政策对双边贸易的影响也不可忽视。     

The impact of the U.S. unfair trade laws: A preliminary assessment

The Impact of the U. S. Unfair Trade Laws: A Preliminary Assessment.- This paper examines how the U.S. unfair trade laws affect imports and import-competing industries. It does so by analyzing data from the U. S. antidumping and antisubsidy cases completed between 1980 and 1992. The results of the paper suggest that the U. S. unfair trade laws significantly reduced “unfair” imports during this period. The paper also finds evidence that U.S. producers were the primary beneficiaries of this import reduction.     

反倾销与美中双边产业内贸易:经验分析

本文针对反倾销与美中双边产业内贸易关系问题,运用GL指数和二元Logit模型研究发现,1995～2006年美国对华反倾销摩擦张力较大的20类涉案产品,其产业内贸易指数都比较小,且美方处于较大的贸易逆差失衡压力,这些成为引发美国对华不断发起反倾销贸易摩擦的实质原因。并且,从经验上否定了反倾销密集程度与美中双边产业内贸易程度的正相关关系。结论是,美中双边产品产业内贸易程度较低,且美国处于贸易逆差失衡的产品最容易招致美国对华反倾销行为。     

The complementarity between U.S. foreign direct investment stock and trade

Within a gravity model framework, this paper will establish that trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) are complementary, using trade and FDI stock data on a bilateral basis between the U.S. and 51 other countries over the period 1982 to 1994. U.S. outward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. exports than does inward FDI. On the other hand, inward FDI is found to have a larger predicted impact on U.S. imports than does U.S. outward FDI. These results are directly linked to patterns of intrafirm trade within the multinational enterprise (MNE), a result consistent with the transactions cost theory of MNEs. In addition, a sectoral analysis indicates that U.S. outward FDI in manufacturing has a large predicted impact on both exports and imports, whereas U.S. outward FDI in services has a large predicted impact on U.S. exports but little or no predicted impact on imports. Detailed comments and suggestions were provided by Joe Daniels, Albert Berry, and seminar participants at the University of Toronto, York University, Industry Canada, and the 1999 annual Canadian Economics Association meeting. Research assistance was provided by George Georgopoulos and Anthony Yao. The authors are responsible for any remaining errors.     

A CGE analysis of the impact of trade liberalization between the U.S. and Mexico

This study examines the effects of free trade between the U.S. and Mexico on the sectoral trade balance of the U.S. The empirical findings indicate that free trade would benefit the overall trade balance of the U.S., but the benefit will be small in the near to medium term for two reasons. First, there is a huge disparity between the economic sizes of the two countries. Second, a sizable share of Mexican exports already enter the U.S. under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) or at low rates under maquiladora production-sharing arrangements. The relatively low tariff rates already in effect allow most of the benefits of trade between the U.S. and Mexico to be realized and therefore limit the potential benefits to the U.S. from free trade.     

产业地理与贸易决策——理解中美贸易战的微观逻辑

2018年开始,美国对华发起规模空前的贸易战,具体内容主要包括“关税战”和“技术战”两个方面。贸易战在美国国内引发了明显的利益分化,利益受损方及其在政治体系中的代表力量成为特朗普政府与中国达成贸易协议以在某种程度上减弱贸易战烈度甚至结束贸易战的主要动力。由于美国的产业呈现高度的地理集聚特征,在中美贸易战中利益受到损失的产业最终会通过它们所在选区的政治代言人来表达自身的利益诉求,因此,理解美国产业地理政治的基本特征是理解中美贸易战进程中两国变换采取攻守策略的逻辑基础。作者认为,以产业集中分布为特征的产业地理和以选区为中心的政治地理是理解美国社会利益和政策偏好向联邦政府传导的两把“钥匙”,它们共同构成了塑造联邦政府对华贸易政策的微观利益基础和核心动力机制。由于受损者比获益者更有动力站出来表达利益诉求以影响政府决策,作者在实证部分集中关注美国对华货物出口行业的产业地理政治,分析中美贸易战中美国国内潜在的反对力量,进而为有针对性地制定对美反制措施提出政策建议。     

Comparative advantages in U.S. bilateral services trade with China and India

Using bilateral trade data for 16 service categories, this paper examines the patterns, evolution, and determinants of comparative advantage (CA) in U.S. services trade with China and India from 1992 to 2010. The results indicate that the U.S. has a CA in most services, except in more traditional ones, such as travel and transportation. However, India, and more recently China, gained a CA in modern services, such as computer and information services during the period considered in this paper. An examination of the distributional dynamics indicates that the likelihood of U.S. gaining CA over an initial position of comparative disadvantage (CDA) in its trade of a particular service with India is higher than the probability of losing its initial dominance. In contrast, the U.S. CA or CDA vis-à-vis China exhibits high levels of persistence over time. The regression results suggest that relative abundance of sector-specific labor, human capital, and FDI inflows have been significant sources of CA for the U.S. over both China and India.     

对发展中国家的贸易与美国制造业的就业变动

本文利用1997～2006年美国制造业的面板数据,从静态和动态的角度实证检验了美国制造业与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业总量的影响。估计结果表明,考虑进、出口贸易对技术创新的驱动作用以后,进、出口贸易对就业的影响与理论预期存在不一致性,进口贸易不仅没有通过替代国内生产而减少劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,反而促进了该部门的就业增长;出口贸易也没有通过产出扩大效应而增加劳动密集制造部门对劳动力的需求,出口贸易对就业的促进效应仅仅体现在技术密集制造部门。由于美国劳动力市场中存在价格效应、规模效应和劳动力需求的趋势效应,与发展中国家的进、出口贸易对美国制造业就业的影响呈现明显的滞后性和动态调整特征。     

Do exchange rate changes have symmetric or asymmetric effects on the trade balance? Evidence from U.S.–Korea commodity trade

Previous studies of the effects of exchange rate changes on Korea’s trade balance have assumed symmetry between currency depreciation and appreciation. In this paper, we distinguish between the two to show that the effects at the industry level are in fact asymmetrical in most industries for Korea’s bilateral trade with the U.S. We employ an auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach using quarterly data for the period 1989–2014 for the 79 3-digit industries in which trade between Korea and the U.S. took place. Overall, our model incorporating differentiated responses for appreciation versus depreciation reveals a more significant impact of the exchange rate on commodity trade between Korea and the U.S. than a more standard model that imposes symmetry.     

产业国际转移视角下的中美贸易摩擦

文章认为,中美贸易逆差近年来大幅增长,在很大程度上是由于发达国家国内产业结构调整,将大量劳动密集型产业和资本技术密集型产业中的劳密型环节转移到中国,实际上等于是把东亚周边国家和地区以前对美、欧的顺差转变成中国对美、欧的顺差,将它们过去与美国的贸易摩擦转换成为中美贸易摩擦。为理顺中美经贸关系,应加快外贸发展方式的转变,坚持合作共赢的原则,大力推进走出去的战略和实施出口多元化战略。     

美国对中国产品使用反补贴法及我国应对策略

本文试从美国对华一系列反补贴案件入手,分析美国反补贴法对中国的适用问题,并提出应对措施。     

How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data

Previous research has followed four distinct paths to investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance of a country, using mostly aggregate trade data. In this paper we choose one of those paths and consider the trade between the U.S. and Canada. However, unlike previous research we disaggregate the trade data between the two countries by commodity and consider 152 industries that trade. After estimating inpayment and outpayment schedules for all 152 industries, we find that real depreciation has short-run effects on inpayments of 72 and outpayments of 53 industries. However, the short-run effects translate into the long-run effects only in 43 of inpayment models and 36 of outpayment models. Further analysis reveals that 1% real depreciation of the U.S. dollar has 1.29% positive effects on the U.S. net export earnings.     

世界经济再平衡和美国套利

美国次贷危机引发了席卷全球的金融危机,长期的低利率货币政策和赤字财政政策是引发美国次贷危机的主要原因。贸易保护和美元贬值将是美国未来减少贸易赤字和刺激经济复苏的重要政策取向,在所谓世界经济"再平衡"过程中美国将会实现双向套利。作为持有大量美元外汇资产的美国最大逆差国,中国应该保持人民币与美元汇率的稳定,逐步减持美元债券,加快生产与贸易结构调整,推动国际经济体制和国际金融体系的改革。     

基于森林资源投入的中美木质林产品贸易模式研究

木质林产品是典型的森林资源约束型产品,在中关木质林产品贸易中,家具占有举足轻重的地位。文章沿用古典贸易理论的思路,通过对中关木质家具与造纸业竞争态势的经验测算和分析,得出在以森林资源作为主要投入要素的木质林产品贸易上中国仍存在微弱比较优势,但同时也面临着生态陷阱的结论,并认为在全球经济可持续发展的背景下,各国应加强国际协调与合作．共同完善森林生态效益补偿机制,合理规划森林资源在不同产业间的分配和利用。