Child labor, family income, and the Uruguay Round

Conclusion We are no longer limited to qualitative discussions of the merits of a social clause in the GATT against child labor. Future debates should be in quantitative terms. Child labor can contribute up to 25 percent of family income-contributions that the ILO regards as critical to their survival. Child laborers have few alternatives if they lose their jobs as a result of a social clause on labor standards. It is reasonably clear that child labor falls away quickly with economic development. However, multilateral trade agreements against child labor such as those proposed for inclusion in the WTO (and ILO) do not promote economic development. The contrary is more likely to be the case: they may reduce the range of alternatives available to children and their parents as producers, consumers, and breadwinners in developing countries.     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

Estimating the economic cost of China's new desulfur policy during her gradual accession to WTO: The case of industrial SO2 emission

To understand the potential impacts of China's accession to WTO on her new desulphur policy (gradual reduction of 10% of annual SO₂ emission by 2005 with respect to that of 2000), we construct a CGE model in which SO₂ emission is directly linked to energy input consumption in production. The model equally considers the substitution possibility between energies of different SO₂ effluent ratios by including energy as labor and capital in the constant elasticity of transformation production function. The positive externality of trade in China's economy is also included. This model is then calibrated into a 55-sector Chinese SAM for the year 1997. Four policy simulations (Business as Usual, Openness policy only, desulfur policy only, and the combination of openness and desulfur policy) are made for the period from 1997 to 2005. The results show that the environmental impact of trade, though proven to be “negative”, stays rather modest. This is owing to the industrial composition transformation that deviates the specialization of the Chinese economy towards labor-intensive sectors under the new trade liberalization process. We do not find evidence for the “pollution haven” hypothesis. Seemingly ambitious, the new desulphur policy will only bring small economic growth loss. The pollution reduction objective will be realized mainly by substitution between polluting and less or non-polluting energies. The combination of trade liberalization and pollution control policy seems to give China more flexibility in adapting her economy to the new desulphur objective. Considering these different aspects together, the total economic loss due to the new desulphur policy will be limited to only − 0.26% under the presence of trade liberalization.     

自由贸易抑或贸易保护——国际贸易的经济增长效应再考察

全球经济复苏过程中,发达国家与新兴经济体之间关于自由贸易的争议也变得空前激烈。国际贸易是否有利于全球经济增长?这实际上是长期以来国际经济学与发展经济学领域颇具争议的问题之一,而在当下对这一问题进行重新审视更具有重要的现实意义。传统贸易理论对贸易合理性的探究尽管触及了经济增长问题,但在贸易静态收益理论的框架下,国际贸易究竟是否会促进一国经济增长,既取决于各个国家在各个发展阶段的经济增长究竟偏向于出口部门还是进口部门,也取决于各种贸易政策对各个部门的相对供给和相对需求的影响。本文对现有针对国际贸易与经济增长关系所做的实证研究作了系统回顾和分析总结,明确指出了目前各种看似矛盾的实证证据背后的理论和技术根源。在此基础上,运用两阶段最小二乘估计(2SLS)和GMM动态面板回归技术,对1960～2006年期间全球各国面板数据进行分析,对不同收入水平的国家组别分别就其贸易占GDP比重与GDP增长之间的关系进行实证检验。文章发现,上述实证研究证明国际贸易对经济增长的促进作用与一国经济发展阶段相关,但对不同收入水平的国家而言则存在差异,同时进口和出口在经济增长中的表现也存在差异性。总体来看,对中等收入国家而言,贸易占GDP比重与GDP增速之间的关系最强,进出口均有较强带动作用;高收入国家贸易占GDP比重与GDP增速之间关系较弱,进口的作用甚至大于出口;低收入国家贸易占GDP比重与GDP增速之间的关系最弱,进口甚至有抑制作用。     

温州经济技术开发区出口贸易的劳动力效应——基于制造业细分行业面板数据的实证研究

在劳动力成为经济发展的关键因素背景下,文章利用温州经济技术开发区制造业24个细分行业的面板数据研究出口贸易对行业劳动生产率、劳动收入份额和单位资产就业吸收量等劳动力现象的影响,研究发现出口贸易会降低劳动生产率,同时出口贸易会提高行业劳动收入份额并且会增加单位资产就业吸收量.此外,劳动密集型产业样本数据的实证研究得出了相同的结论,但在劳动密集型产业中,出口贸易对劳动生产率的负面影响较弱,对劳动收入的正面影响较强,且对就业的正面影响较弱.     

China's Trade: Theory and Policy

The paper reviews the writings of Chinese economists on economic principles relating to international trade. The principal argument presented is that China's foreign trade policies have developed under the influence of both Marxist and conventional western economic thought, though the latter theories are not openly accepted in China and have been applied on a piecemeal basis. The survey also shows that Marxist economics in general, and the Marxist view of foreign trade in particular, have become less relevant to China's foreign trade policy, both theoretically and practically.     

基于新兴古典经济学、交易成本经济学的产业集群演进机理探析

新兴古典经济学认为,在专业化经济和交易成本之间总是存在着非常复杂的两难冲突,交易效率的改进将会扩大分工经济与交易成本折衷的范围,从而提高生产者的专业化生产程度。交易成本经济学认为,不确定性、交易频率和资产专用性决定了经济活动主体的治理结构安排,随着三个变量水平的变化,其治理结构由于节约交易成本的原因,将经历市场、企业、网络组织的三种形态变化。文章运用新兴古典经济学与交易成本经济学思想,考察了劳动分工、交易效率与产业集群演进的互动关系,认为产业集群的形成与发展是一个劳动分工深化、交易效率提高(交易成本降低)的过程。在此基础上,文章对杨小凯的基于专业化经济的劳动分工模型进行了拓展和深化,以便对产业集群的演进机制进行深入分析,并通过模型分析支持了本文的观点。因此,产业集群的形成与发展有其自身的内在规律。当前,政府更为紧迫的任务是要注重产业集群软环境的建设,以此降低交易费用,促进产业集群的持续、健康发展。     

贸易“新常态”背景下中国出口贸易模式转型的成本考量

以贸易成本和生产成本的变化为切入点，运用2003年至2013年27个行业的面板数据，比较分析了劳动力成本、企业规模、劳动生产率在2008年金融危机前后的两个时期内对于出口贸易的不同影响，以此说明成本因素变化对于贸易转型的作用机制。研究结果表明，一方面，劳动力成本的提高是影响我国出口贸易向贸易“新常态”转变的重要原因。另一方面，规模经济所带来的成本优势正在弱化，重“量”而轻“质”的粗放型外贸发展模式不可持续。     

基于广义价值论的内生增长理论初探

增长理论是经济学的重要部分，关系到每一个人的福利和一个国家的地位。文章运用广义价值论研究经济增长问题，以分工为切入点，把分工产生的新增利益和该利益的公平分配统一起来，论述了递增性假设之外另一条增长的可能路径。主要结论如下：（1）基于比较优势的分工交换可以持续地产生比较利益即超过自给自足收益的净收益，这一收益不依赖于技术的递增或递减变化，具有普遍持久稳定性；（2）由分工交换产生的净收益构成原始积累的重要来源，既促进了生产规模和分工范围的扩大，又支持了研发和技术进步；（3）劳动生产力任何提高的效应都通过分工交换产生的比较利益加以放大，在一个分工交换系统中，行为主体提高比较优势产品和比较劣势产品的生产力分别具有正的和负的外部性；（4）基于广义价值论的内生经济增长体现了效率与公平的统一，一个好的制度是能够保证在交易中各方的比较利益率相等，掠夺性制度不仅直接损害经济增长，也不具备长期可持续性。     

A paradigmatic change is needed for understanding the real market

Economics in China has been neoclassicalized in the past few decades. In this article, I argue that neoclassical economics is not a good theory of the market. It misleads both economists and government in understanding the economic issues. China is particularly vulnerable to its defects. In contrast, the Austrian School of economics is a better theory of the market since it studies the real market, not an imaginary market. The most important difference between the two economics paradigms is their understandings of the entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship is missed in neoclassical economics. In the Austrian School economics and Schumpeterian economics, entrepreneurship is the soul of the market. The paradigm shift of economics is urgently needed but it will be a slow process. Chinese economists should play a role in this transformation.     

中国摆脱依附式发展与中美贸易冲突根源

中美贸易冲突根源的探寻不应停留在国际贸易层次,而是应该从当下的国际分工结构和国际生产关系中去寻找。作者从马克思主义国际政治经济学角度出发,认为国际分工及其相应的国际生产关系是决定国家在世界舞台上政治经济地位与利益的基础。发展中国家在传统的国际分工结构中长期处于外围、在生产关系上处于依附地位的根本原因在于生产力落后,特别是技术水平落后。20世纪70年代以来,全球生产链作为一种新的国际生产组织方式逐渐形成并发展起来。在这一新的国际分工生产中,发展中国家的依附地位并没有改变,但是具体的依附形式不同于历史上的依附形式,呈现出“技术—市场”依附的特点。在这种新的依附形式下,广大参与全球生产链分工的发展中国家只能从中获得微薄的附加值,进而形成一种依附式发展,而西方发达国家的跨国企业却能够主导全球生产进程并从中获得高额的附加值。中国要实现现代化强国的目标,就需要摆脱依附式发展模式,实现在全球生产链中从中低端向中高端的攀升。近年来中国在发展高新技术产业和提升世界市场地位方面的努力及其获得的相应成就触动了美国作为现有国际分工主导者的既得利益。为了维护其霸权的经济基础,美国不惜发起贸易战以遏制中国的发展有其必然性。中国摆脱依附式发展以及美国相对衰落所导致的国际分工格局现实和潜在的变化正是中美贸易冲突爆发的根源所在。     

基于动态钻石模型的中国文化贸易竞争力研究

随着文化产业成为我国经济新增长点的态势愈加明显,文化贸易在转变经济发展方式、调整国民经济结构中发挥的作用在更大范围内获得了认可。但从国际比较来看,我国文化贸易竞争力仍较弱。本文发展了波特的钻石模型理论,根据产业发展阶段提出动态钻石模型,并将这一模型运用到文化贸易竞争力的理论分析和实证研究中,并在此基础上提出相关的政策建议。     

满洲里经济前景展望

满洲里地处中、俄、蒙交界,是商家必争之地.俄、蒙人口稀少,自然资源丰富,中国有廉价的劳动力和一定的资金、技术,所以在满洲里可兴建各种加工业.满洲里的旅游资源也十分丰富,达赉湖风光无限,又是各种珍禽的故乡,呼伦贝尔大草原、冰雪世界及蒙古和俄罗斯风情等都是稀缺的旅游资源.在工业、旅游、商贸的相互促进下,作为国际商贸旅游城的满洲里其经济发展前景十分看好.     

DOES SOCIAL SECURITY AFFECT RETIREMENT AND LABOR SUPPLY? EVIDENCE FROM CHILE

This paper explores the effects of the social security system on retirement and labor supply decisions. Due to the regulations established by Chilean social security law reform, two social security systems coexist in Chile: the “Pay‐As‐You‐Go” and the individual account system. The coexistence of the systems allows us to better understand the effects of both social security systems on retirement and labor supply. We find that (1) larger benefits in any social security system induce earlier retirement and (2) larger variance of benefits in the individual account system induces later retirement. We do not find major impacts of social security on labor supply of individuals in the labor force.     

中国加入WTO以来中日国际分工格局的变化——以汽车及其零部件产业内贸易为例

大多数国家的经验表明,一国经济开放度的提高会改变该国的国际分工模式,具体表现为产业内贸易水平的上升。本文具体研究中国加入WTO以来中日汽车及其零部件的产业内贸易,得出结论:中日汽车及其零部件的产业内贸易水平在这一时期不仅没有上升,反而出现了大幅度的下降。作者对此原因作了研究并提出了一些启示。     

父母对子女的私人转移支付与子女劳动力供给

利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）2013年数据,本文考察了来自父母的私人转移支付对子女劳动力供给的影响。采用父亲和母亲的受教育年限作为私人转移支付的工具变量克服了计量模型可能存在的内生性问题。研究发现,父母对子女的私人转移支付每提高1%,子女的日、周、年劳动力供给将分别降低0.0254%、0.0536%、0.0991%,据此测算,父母对子女的私人转移支付每增加1元将使全国劳动力日劳动供给减少约5.24万小时。进一步的影响机制分析发现,父母通过私人转移支付"购买"子女提供的关爱、照料服务而挤出了子女的劳动力供给是导致上述结果的重要原因。研究还发现,来自父母的私人转移支付对子女劳动力供给的影响只存在集约边际,而不存在广延边际,即其仅减少了子女的劳动供给时间,而并没有使子女退出劳动力市场。本文的研究有助于理解自上而下的代际转移支付带来的经济影响。     

知识产权保护与国际R&D溢出实证研究

进口贸易和FDI是国际R&D溢出的主要渠道,知识产权保护水平是影响国际技术效应的重要因素。运用中国1985～2009的时间序列数据实证分析表明,进口贸易和FDI能显著促进国际R&D的技术溢出,且吸收能力的加强有助于技术效应的扩大。但是在现有中国经济的发展水平下,知识产权保护的加强会抑制国际技术溢出,阻碍中国劳动生产率的提高。因此,作为发展中国家,完善现有教育体制和提高人力资本自主创新才是关键,同时在不违反WTO协议的前提下,应采取适度的知识产权保护水平。     

广东外经贸转型升级核心要素实证分析

欧债危机的残余影响依然存在,世界经济形势尚未完全明朗。近年来广东外经贸增速减缓,某些方面的比较优势正在逐渐消失,广东外经贸国际竞争力正在日渐下降。面对广东外经贸发展的新形势,指出现阶段影响广东外经贸转型升级的核心要素,对其进行实证分析,并与日本外经贸发展进行比较,定位广东外经贸的发展阶段及各核心因素对广东外经贸转型升级的影响程度,为广东外经贸转型升级提供相应对策建议。     

The effect of trade on earnings--evidence from Swedish micro data

Using a large longitudinal data set, we study the effects ofincreased trade on earnings in the Swedish labor market. Earningsrespond significantly to changes in industry sales, whethergenerated by domestic market forces or international trade:Swedish exports (imports) raise (lower) annual earnings, butchanges in trade affect earnings just as any other shift inmarket conditions. We also examine whether the effects of tradevary by skill. We do not find systematic differences in theeffects of trade across the skill distribution.     

贸易开放度、劳动力市场扭曲与全要素生产率——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

基于空间计量模型,使用中国省级层面数据探究劳动力市场扭曲程度和贸易依存度对地区全要素生产率的影响.研究结果表明,劳动力市场扭曲抑制了地区经济增长,贸易开放水平对经济发展有着正向促进作用.对比中国不同区域可以发现,东部地区在劳动力市场与国际贸易市场上发展较为完善,中西部地区还需缓和中西部地区农业部门与非农部门的劳动力市场不平衡、增加贸易对外开放程度、增加企业自主研发等方式来提升地区全要素生产率.