Attrition in longitudinal panel data and the empirical analysis of dynamic labour market behaviour

In the empirical analysis of unemployment durations and job durations, it is generally assumed that the stochastic processes underlying labour market behaviour and the behaviour concerning participation in a panel survey are independent. However, there are reasons to believe that the probability of dropping out of the panel is related to the rate at which a (different) job is found. If there is such a relation, and if it is ignored, then the estimator of the rate at which individuals become employed or change jobs will generally be inconsistent. In this paper we analyse the relation between the duration spent in a particular labour market state and the duration of panel survey participation, by explicitly modelling and estimating the joint distribution of both durations. The emphasis will be on models allowing for stochastically related unobserved determinants of both types of duration. We estimate models both for unemployment durations and for job durations.     

Market structure and spells of employment and unemployment: Evidence from the construction sector in Egypt

This paper investigates the links between market structure and spells of employment and unemployment in the construction sector in Egypt using an augmented job search framework. Two key features of the model are the reservation frontier which allows for a trade-off between wages and expected duration of employment, and the dependency of unemployment durations on expected employment durations and expected wages. These, as well as conjectures concerning the influence of demand-side forces obtained from the expressions for the transition rates out of employment and unemployment, are examined using Weibull, log-logistic and generalized gamma parameterizations of the hazard rate. The parametric assumptions are exploited to resolve problems associated with selectivity and use of generated regressors.     

Incidence and duration of unemployment spells: Implications for the male–female wage differentials

We demonstrate in this paper that the incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells affect the male–female gender wage differential. The results indicate that after controlling for sample selectivity bias in the wage equation, the incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells account for about 14.2% and 39.6%, respectively, of the wage differential that exists between males and females. We observed that while the duration of unemployment accounts for a substantial portion of the wage differential in both the service (48.8%) and the manufacturing (17.0%) sectors, the impacts of the incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells variables on the wage differential are rather small in the service (0.07%) and the manufacturing (1.6%) sectors. Also, high incidence of unemployments is associated with low wages for males and females in all samples. In contrast, longer durations of unemployment spells tend to increase males’ wages and decrease females’ wages in the full and service sector samples. At the macro level, the results seem to suggest that promotion of gender wage equality should be associated with policies that will minimize the female's incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells.     

The perceived probability of job loss and future labour market outcomes

Longitudinal survey data are used to test the degree to which worker expectations of future job loss are correlated with changes in labour market status. Three major findings are reported. First, perceived probabilities of expected job loss are only weakly related to both exogenous job separations and subsequent transitions to unemployment and inactivity. Second, while fears of job loss tend to persist across time and job spells, they do so at a highly diminishing rate. Third, quit intentions are strongly correlated with both voluntary separations and transitions to alternative employment, and do not diminish greatly across successive employment spells.     

Unemployment insurance and subsequent job duration: job matching versus unobserved heterogeneity

The relationship between Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefit duration, unemployment duration and subsequent job duration is investigated using a multi‐state duration model with state specific unobserved heterogeneity. I examine two potential explanations for the negative correlation between unemployment and job spell durations; UI benefits increase job matching quality (the ‘Matching’ effect) versus unobserved heterogeneity (‘Adverse Selection’). The Matching effect is found to be weak. Although new jobs accepted within 5 weeks of benefit termination seem to have a higher dissolution rate, the negative correlation between unemployment and job duration is mostly explained by unobserved heterogeneity. Various simulations indicate that increasing the maximum benefit duration by one week will raise expected unemployment duration by 1.0 to 1.5 days but will raise expected job duration by 0.5 to 0.8 day only. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Marketplace matching in Britain: Evidence from individual unemployment spells

This paper investigates job matching patterns in Great Britain. Evidence from individual transitions out of unemployment demonstrates that recently unemployed workers are likely to find jobs in the existing stock of vacancies. If, however, they are unlucky and fail to match early on, job seekers cease matching with existing vacancies. Workers with longer unemployment spells instead form matches with the flow of new vacancies. This pattern is more pronounced for workers who experienced only short spells of employment prior to their current job search. This evidence provides robust support for stock-flow matching but is difficult to reconcile with random matching.     

Job search incentives and job match quality

We examine the impacts of time-limited unemployment insurance (UI) and active labor market programs (ALMP) on the duration and outcome of job search in Norway. We use a comprehensive simultaneous equations model accounting for i) the duration of unemployment spells; ii) their outcomes, iii) subsequent employment stability; and iv) the earnings level associated with the first job. We find that time invested in job search pays off in form of higher earnings once a job match is formed. ALMP raises the probability of eventually finding a job as well as expected earnings, but at the cost of lengthening job search.     

Transitions From School to Work and the Early Labour Market Experience

We consider transitions from school to work and the early market experience. The duration of post-school unemployment, wages, and job duration are estimated simultaneously. We find that individuals with higher levels ofschooling get jobs more quickly and have longer employment durations. Apprentices have shorter unemployment periods and stay longer in their jobs than others at the same educational level. Females have shorter unemployment periods and lower wages, and also stay in the first job longer. The unemployment duration and the accepted wage affect job duration positively, but the estimated covariance terms suggest unobserved factors working in the opposite direction.     

Past absence as a predictor of present absence: the case of a large Danish municipality

This article investigates whether past absence behaviour is a predictor of present absence duration in a large Danish municipality with 17,499 individuals observed from 1996 to 2004. Past absence behaviour is measured in both absence days and absence spells. The article also investigates a number of confounders such as gender, age, seniority, wage, contracted number of work hours and season. The results of the empirical study show that there is a significant positive relationship between employees' absence duration and past absence spells and past absence days, respectively. The study thus confirms that past days and past spells have an equal potential of predicting present absent. Past absence behaviour can thus be used as an early warning for managers. The study also confirms that personal characteristics such as age and seniority also influence absence duration. Moreover, job characteristics such as wage and contracted number of work hours also influence absence duration. Finally, the season of the year seems to influence absence duration.     

Sign reversal in LIVE treatment effect estimates: The effect of vocational training on unemployment duration

We use administrative records in Israel to identify the treatment effect of vocational training for the unemployed on the duration of unemployment. We randomize training using data on the availability of courses in and around the time of becoming unemployed. This assumes that the timing of entry into unemployment is random, and course availability around the time of entry is independent of current labor market conditions. According to naïve estimators, which ignore self-selectivity, training reduces unemployment durations. The same applies to linear (IV) estimators, which control for self-selectivity. However, the opposite is found when non-linear IV estimators are used, i.e. training prolongs unemployment durations. Sign reversal depends on how the first stage is specified. A non-nested test indicates that the nonlinear estimate of the treatment effect is preferable to its linear counterpart, in which case training prolongs unemployment spells.     

Empirical evidence on the sign of the slope of the hazard rate from unemployment from a fixed effects model

Empirical evidence on the sign of the slope of the hazard rate from unemployment is obtained from a fixed effects model based on the gamma distribution for unemployment duration. The data used are pairs of unemployment spells for adult males in the control and experimental groups of the Denver Income Maintenance Experiment. The sample selection issue involved in selecting the pair of spells used in the empirical work is discussed. The empirical results suggest that for these samples the hazard function is monotone decreasing and support the assumptions that the first two spells of unemployment are identically distributed and can be modelled using the gamma distribution.     

State dependency in youth unemployment: A lost generation?

Utilizing a job search framework and survey data on both completed and uncompleted spells of unemployment we present in this paper maximum likelihood estimates of the determinants of re-employment probabilities of young workers in Britain. The model used allows us to examine the importance of state dependency in youth unemployment as well as ethnicity, educational qualifications, and unemployment income. Results suggest that there is strong evidence of negative duration dependence in the transition from unemployment to employment for young workers in Britain.     

The cyclical pattern of regional unemployment flows in Poland

Using male unemployment benefit data across Polish regions during 1994–1996, we find that unemployment flows are pro-cyclical and increase with job reallocation, controlling for other factors. At the national level we observe that job reallocation and output are associated with stagnant unemployment flows, low inflows and long duration. This has heretofore been attributed to workers by-passing the unemployment benefit system as they move job to job. We show this to be a fallacy of aggregation. The cyclical behaviour of regional unemployment flows and their response to job reallocation suggests that workers use unemployment benefit system to facilitate transition.     

The effect of home-ownership on labor mobility in the Netherlands

In various macro-studies, home-ownership is found to hamper job mobility and to increase unemployment. This paper addresses similar issues, but uses a micro-econometric framework where both individual job mobility, as well as the probability of being homeowner are modeled simultaneously. Using a panel of individual labor and housing market histories for the period 1989–1998, we estimate a nonparametric model of both job durations and home-ownership. We do not find homeowners to change less from jobs than tenants. Instead, our results suggest that the housing decision is driven by job commitment, and not the reverse. We do however find homeowners to be less vulnerable to unemployment.     

Potential Unemployment Benefit Duration and Spell Length: Lessons from a Quasi-Experiment in Austria

The paper studies the effect of potential unemployment benefit duration on the length of unemployment spells in Austria. It takes advantage of a quasi-experimental situation, where potential benefit duration was extended in 1988 for elderly workers living in specific regions of the country. The empirical analysis shows that men react significantly to benefit duration whereas women generally do not. The quantitative impact is smaller than in comparable studies for the US and Germany. Furthermore, the impact of extended benefit duration is differentiated for short and long spells. Whereas for long spells higher impacts for men as well as for women are found, no unemployment-prolonging effects for short spells could be detected.     

The rate of learning‐by‐doing: estimates from a search‐matching model

We construct and estimate by maximum likelihood a job search model where wages are set by Nash bargaining and idiosyncratic productivity follows a geometric Brownian motion. The proposed framework enables us to endogenize job destruction and to estimate the rate of learning‐by‐doing. Although the range of the observations is not independent of the parameters, we establish that the estimators satisfy asymptotic normality. The structural model is estimated using Current Population Survey data on accepted wages and employment durations. We show that it accurately captures the joint distribution of wages and job spells. We find that the rate of learning‐by‐doing has an important positive effect on aggregate output and a small impact on employment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do Low‐Wage Workers React Less to Longer Unemployment Benefits? Quasi‐Experimental Evidence*

The fact that unemployed workers have different abilities to smooth consumption entails heterogeneous responses to extended unemployment benefits. Our empirical exercise explores a quasi‐experimental setting generated by an increase in the benefits entitlement period. The results suggest a hump‐shape response of unemployment duration over the one‐year pre‐unemployment wage distribution; individuals at the bottom and top of the wage distribution reacted less than those in the interquartile range. This behaviour of job searchers is consistent with labour supply models with unemployment insurance and savings. It questions the optimality of very long entitlement periods to target the unemployment experiences of low‐wage workers.     

Early Labor Market Experiences of Youth and Subsequent Wages

A bstract . High youth unemployment continues to be a major concern to policymakers in the United States. In view of the many studies that have documented a perpetuation of the relatively high jobless rates for youth in the postwar period whether disaggregated by age, sex , or race , the debate on the youth employment-unemployment problem has begun to focus more recently on its socioeconomic consequences. One of the overriding concerns is that early labor market unemployment experiences might carry over into later labor force performance. The cumulative effects of prolonged periods of unemployment and intermittent unemployment (i.e. , duration and spells of unemployment) on the subsequent wages of a cohort of young men are examined. Spells of unemployment experienced early in the labor market careers of the cohort tended to have an increasing effect on their later wages , while spells occurring later and the duration of unemployment then serve to lower their subsequent wages.     

Spell durations with long unemployment insurance periods

This paper uses data from a natural experiment to investigate the potential incentive effect of a fixed unemployment insurance period. We compare two large groups of Norwegian unemployed persons who registered as unemployed in 1990 and 1991. The last group was affected by a rule change that in practice extended the length of unemployment benefits to more than 3 years. Our data are taken from official records, and we construct unemployment durations by combining information from the unemployment registers with employers' records. We use a proportional hazard model with a flexible baseline. The results suggest that the main effect of benefits running out is to make people drop out of the unemployment register. We find neither clear evidence that the hazard into employment increased when the end of benefits approached in the pre-liberalisation group, nor that behaviour in this part of the spells changed after the reform. On the other hand, our results suggest that the reform had an all over negative effect on the employment hazard.     

What determines inflation in the US,job growth or unemployment?

An empirical investigation of postwar US data reveals that movements in inflation are much more strongly associated with job growth than the unemployment rate. Job growth is found to be strongly related to inflation even after accounting for the effect of the unemployment rate. The residual influence of the unemployment rate on inflation is small, however, after accounting for the effect of job growth. The data shows that in the past inflation has tended to decline when job growth is weak even if unemployment is low. This suggests that the relatively slow job growth of recent years may partly explain the puzzle that, during much of the current expansion, the US economy has experienced little inflation in spite of low unemployment.