耕地保护政策执行力的测度与评析

研究目的：从执行力角度出发，基于PSR模型定量评价中国耕地保护政策的执行力及其区域差异，为提高耕地保护绩效提供技术支撑。研究方法：灰色关联分析法和协调度函数。研究结果：耕地保护政策执行力可用耕地保护PSR系统协调度来表征；耕地保护政策执行力的区域差异明显，执行力最高为黑龙江，其水平为1.7799，最低为海南，其水平为1.5518，平均水平为1.6291。研究结论：耕地保护政策执行力与区域经济规模扩展水平和耕地资源禀赋差异具有较强的相关性。在耕地保护过程中，应充分考虑区域的差异性，把土地利用分区和土地利用收益分配结合起来，并通过建立区域间的利益补偿机制，矫正耕地保护政策执行较好区域的外部经济损失问题。     

基于PLS-PP的延吉市土地利用变化趋势预测研究

利用延吉市1992年和2007年两期Landsat TM数据,在分析土地利用变化的基础上,应用偏最小二乘回归的投影寻踪耦合（PLS-PP）模型,对延吉市的土地利用变化进行了分析和定量预测。研究结果表明,偏最小二乘回归的投影寻踪耦合（PLS-PP）模型与传统的偏最小二乘回归（PLS）模型方法比较,预测值精度显著提高。根据PLS-PP模型的运算结果,按照目前的变化速度,延吉市林地、草地将逐渐减少,耕地、居民点工矿用地、未利用地、水域用地逐渐增加,其中未利用地、水域用地变化幅度较大。该方法可为土地利用变化预测研究提供一种新的思路,预测结果可为土地管理部门制定相应的对策提供依据,从而达到土地资源优化配置与合理利用的目的。     

中国发达地区耕地保护观念的转变和机制探讨

分析中国经济社会快速发展过程中面临的耕地保护问题，为突破当前耕地保护瓶颈提供新的思路。研究方法：综合分析、实证分析、比较分析和统计分析法。研究结论：通过对发达地区经济社会发展和土地利用关系的分析，论证了发达地区土地利用和经济发展的特殊性以及耕地保护观念转变的必要性；探讨了发达地区耕地保护观念转变的重点：（1）耕地保护到农地保护的拓展；（2）数量平衡到生产能力平衡的提升；（3）食物生产功能到生态服务功能的换位。讨论了发达地区耕地保护机制：农地保护的转换机制；宜耕农地异地代补机制；耕地占用以质补量机制。     

Modeling the effects of tourism and land regulation on land-use change in tourist regions: A case study of the Lijiang River Basin in Guilin,China

To a large extent, tourism development triggers an economic boost in certain regions. However, given its complex and dynamic forms of land use, tourism development also causes changes to land-use demands and patterns in tourist regions, which directly and indirectly interfere with local environments. The development of tourist regions must achieve a series of trade-offs to meet sustainability goals. This paper discusses the effects of tourism on land-use change and how land regulation policies integrate tourism development with land use. We employed a system dynamic-cellular automata hybrid model using the Lijiang River Basin as an example to translate tourism-affected land dynamics into spatial distributions and project their likely future changes under various development scenarios. We determined three major outcomes. (1) Tourism development causes a quantitatively increasing demand for construction land. With effective spatial regulations, the expansion of construction land does not necessarily suggest the loss of eco-land; rather, land-use pressures accordingly shift to cropland. Under these circumstances, land regulation policies help to balance land demand and optimize land-use patterns. (2) Tourism development causes a continuous spatial interference with landscapes. Land regulation policies have the positive and active effect of ignoring this interference rather than counteracting it. (3) The strict implementation of land regulation policies does not necessarily improve land-use patterns. Flexible policies achieve a better balanced land-use pattern than a combination of individual strict policies. However, the former cannot reduce as much vulnerability as the latter. Hence, policy assembly represents a trade-off with regards to balancing land demands, and it should vary based on regional land-use patterns and targets.     

The evolving concepts of land administration in China: Cultivated land protection perspective

This paper presents a holistic method by integrating three concepts (land resources management, assets supervision and political governance for sustainability) for investigation of land administration in China, taking into consideration of cultivated land protection for a testimony with econometric method. Theoretically, in this self-organizing integrated method, land resources management focuses on the productivity of land; land assets supervision centralizes on the realization of land usufruct rights in land transference; land political governance for sustainability concentrates on harmonious linkage of economic efficiency, social stability and environmental safety of land use. Their interrelations are complex. Methodologically, the results indicate that the theoretical model is feasible to explain variations of cultivated land protection with these three concepts. Cultivated land decreases with increasing land value increment multiples, and is positive with political governance concept, but not in a linear fashion. Finally the results suggest that roles of government in land administration need to be changed and strengthened, supporting complete compensation for land expropriation and modification to policies of cultivated land.     

近年来湖南省耕地动态变化及保护对策

湖南省人均耕地已接近联合国粮农组织规定的人均耕地警戒线,且近年来耕地流失的趋势还在加快,耕地减少主要集中在生态退耕、建设占用、农业结构调整以及灾害毁地等几个方面.近7年来,湖南各地市表现出不同的耕地变化特征:经济水平相对较高以及地处洞庭湖平原的地区,耕地变化率反而小;而相对落后的山区,耕地变化率较大.利用主成分分析法,得出湖南省耕地减少的三大驱动因素,分别是社会经济发展、国家耕地有关政策以及农业科技进步.实现耕地占补平衡,提高耕地的集约利用水平,积极开展土地整理复垦、改善生态环境、依靠科技进步等是当前保护耕地的基本策略.     

芜湖市快速城市化过程中耕地变化研究

城市化水平是衡量一个区域社会经济发展程度的重要标志,而耕地保护是一个区域社会经济可持续发展的重要保障。正确处理城市化发展与耕地保护的关系,对于城市健康发展和合理利用土地资源具有重要意义。以1996~2012年芜湖市数据为基础,运用单因素线性回归模型,通过国内生产总值、固定资产投资和人口城市化率3个主要指标,分析芜湖市1996~2012年城市化发展与耕地数量变化之间的关系,探寻影响耕地变化的主导因素,预测未来短期内耕地数量变化趋势,从而有针对地提出耕地保护的有效对策。研究结果表明,自1996年以来,芜湖市处于城市化加速发展阶段,耕地数量变化显著,且与国内生产总值、固定资产投资和人口城市化率之间皆存在密切关系。为避免耕地资源的进一步减少,保障社会经济可持续发展,芜湖市应通过节约集约用地、积极开发耕地后备资源、加强耕地质量管护等方式进行耕地保护。     

政策与学术互动发展：从《中国土地科学》载文分析中国土地科学发展

研究目的：从《中国土地科学》期刊载文情况分析土地科学研究热点变化轨迹,并进一步探究土地政策与土地学术研究互动发展的关系。研究方法：文献计量学和主题热度计算。研究结果：（1）耕地保护研究是《中国土地科学》期刊持续关注的核心话题,且随政策变化经历三个发展阶段,目前仍处在中高位平稳发展;（2）土地节约集约利用研究随着国家级政策的颁布在2009年后成为热点,之后保持在中位发展水平;（3）土地资产相关研究随着社会主义市场经济的发展和完善,在20世纪90年代经历了快速发展,目前逐渐淡出学术关注;（4）土地整治相关研究进入21世纪以来受到高度关注,2010年后开始进入高位发展阶段。研究结论：《中国土地科学》未来关注重点应为耕地资源有效保护与高质量管理、土地资源节约集约利用、国土空间规划实施评价及监测、自然资源资产管理及其市场体系建立、土地整治与生态保护修复协调发展等。同时,《中国土地科学》未来应坚持行业特色,继续做好土地政策与学术研究的桥梁,为政策的科学化制定提供学术支持,为学术研究转化为政策支持提供平台。     

Changes in and prospects for cultivated land use since the reform and opening up in China

Cultivated land provides the basic guarantee for food production and security, and changes in its utilization have been a focus of attention in China. Since China’s “reform and opening up,” major changes have taken place in the country’s social economy and cultivated land use. Based on statistical data analysis and literature review, this study systematically reviewed long-term changes in cultivated land use in China. On that basis, future trends are identified, which can provide new insights for future research on cultivated land use and protection management. The findings indicate that while cultivated land use is diversified, smallholder farmers still account for the main part. Further, the scale of cultivation is expanding but still fragmented, profits derived from land cultivation are slowly growing, and the proportion of those profits in total household income has dramatically declined. It was also found that the social security function of cultivated land has been weakened, cultivated land management has become more diversified, and grain output has risen steadily. To meet the needs of social and economic development, the government should promote the transfer of the “household” as a unit instead of “labor.” Moreover, innovation in the land use system should be stimulated based on industrial convergence, and policy incentives for ecological farming should be increased.     

美国农地保护方法及其借鉴

研究目的：探讨美国农地保护方法及其对中国的借鉴。研究方法：逻辑分析，对比分析。研究结果：中国现行农地保护政策存在不足。美国农地保护的启示：（1）农地保护目标应包括保证粮食安全、农业产业发展、环境、城乡土地的合理利用，实现数量、质量、生态的综合保护；（2）发挥中央政府、地方政府、农地保护组织和农民的主体作用，促进农地的保护和保持；（3）完善法规调控体系，改革政府参与方式，减少土地套利，完善市场配套设施、引入市场激励机制，根据地区资源和经济发展情况实行差异化方法。研究结论：美国农地保护目标、管理体系及具体方法等对中国有借鉴作用。     

Effects of local land-use planning on development and disturbance in riparian areas

Land-use change can significantly affect the provision of ecosystem services. On a local scale, zoning laws and other land-use regulations are commonly used to influence land-use change, but their effectiveness is often unclear. We evaluate the effectiveness of local land-use planning in concentrating development and minimizing impacts in riparian areas. We use spatially-explicit land cover data from the USGS Land Cover Trends project to measure development and disturbance rates before and after implementation of Oregon’s land-use planning system. We apply a difference-in-difference estimator to address the problem of non-random assignment of regulations on the landscape. We find that land-use laws in Oregon have concentrated development inside of UGBs and lowered development rates in riparian areas. However, disturbance in riparian areas has increased inside of UGBs. Overall, our findings suggest that local land-use planning can be an effective tool for promoting the provision of non-market ecosystem services.     

长江中下游地区农业经济增长中隐含虚拟耕地资源“尾效”对比研究*

[目的]为进一步科学、系统地评估长江中下游地区主要农产品隐含的虚拟耕地资源对农业经济增长的约束或促进作用,进而为国家正确制定和执行合理的土地管理政策提供参考依据。[方法]基于新古典经济增长理论构建农业经济增长中隐含的虚拟耕地资源"尾效"模型,以长江中下游地区7省、市为例进行实证对比分析,并尝试探索虚拟耕地资源"尾效"存在区域差异的原因。[结果]长江中下游地区主要农产品虚拟耕地资源与农业经济增长存在显著相关,虚拟耕地资源的投入进一步加速了浙江、上海和江苏的经济发展,对安徽、湖南、湖北、江西经济发展的促进和约束程度变化不一;虚拟耕地资源增长率、虚拟耕地资源弹性系数、资本弹性系数是虚拟耕地资源"尾效"存在区域差异的主要原因。[结论]长江中下游地区主要农产品虚拟耕地资源"尾效"整体差异明显,对农业经济增长的影响显著。     

耕地动态监测应用管理系统框架设计及实现

传统的耕地资源调查方法存在投资大、历时长等问题,不利于耕地现势性数据的快速获取,基于3S集成的耕地动态监测技术可以弥补这一缺陷。基于Arc GIS平台构建了耕地动态监测应用管理系统框架,研究了系统结构、数据库和算法库的设计方案,提出了遥感影像解译、耕地变化信息获取和数据库建设等问题的解决方案,为实现耕地变化信息的自动化获取和对变化信息智能化的决策判断提供了系统框架支撑。以济源市2009~2012年耕地变化情况为例,验证了系统的可行性,通过GIS处理与系统分析法对研究区耕地在数量、质量、性质和位置上的变化进行了分析,并探讨了监测成果在土地利用总体规划、基本农田保护、土地整治、耕地占补平衡和土地执法检查工作中的智能化应用,为政府决策和各级土地管理部门制定管理政策、落实各项管理措施提供科学依据,同时提高了耕地监管技术的信息化水平,推进了国土资源科技的发展。     

海外城市化与耕地保护对中国的启示

研究目的:研究世界部分国家和地区的城市化发展及其耕地面积的变化,以期为快速城市化时期中国的城市发展和耕地保护提供借鉴。研究方法:文献法,对比分析和统计分析法。研究结论:城市化是世界经济发展的普遍规律,中国台湾、日本以及北美西欧的经验表明,城市扩展和耕地面积保持相对稳定并不矛盾,其关键在于选择合适的城市发展道路及其土地利用方式,并有相关政策作保障。对中国城市化发展和耕地保护的启示:(1)选择合理的城市化道路,实施大都市发展战略是中国应对耕地资源紧缺的重要途径;(2)“开源节流”是保持耕地面积稳定的重要保证。     

Urban encroachment,forest regrowth and land-use institutions: Does zoning matter?

As concern grows regarding urban sprawl and forest and agricultural land preservation, the effectiveness of land-use policies in shaping land-use change warrants further study. We evaluate the impact of county-level zoning laws, the most predominant land use policy in the USA, and land rents on the relative amounts of forest, agricultural, and developed land, while controlling for demographic information and taxation rates. Over the past decades, southern Indiana has experienced forest regrowth on private lands, but this regrowth has declined in recent years with increased conversion of open space for urban residential development. We develop a model of land-use shares in 40 southern Indiana counties based on the net benefits to agriculture, forestland, and urban uses using a maximum likelihood estimation of a Dirichlet distribution. We find agricultural land rent and indicators of land productivity are the most important predictors of the proportion of agriculture and urban uses. Forest use is better explained by shifting regional economic structure and hilly terrain. Counties with a greater proportion of their work force in the service sectors have a greater proportion of land forested. Finally, to some extent zoning may protect agricultural land in the region, although land rents, land characteristics, and population are strong predictors of the ratio of agriculture to urban use.     

乌鲁木齐市耕地面积变化态势及驱动机制分析

[目的]耕地资源是我国乃至世界重要的土地资源,保护耕地数量不减少、质量不降低是我们每个公民义不容易的责任和义务。当前国内外对耕地保护的研究大多仅停留在时间上的比较以及定量的分析,很少对指标因素和时间进行横纵向比较。[方法]文章基于乌鲁木齐市2004~2013年耕地面积,从全市人口、经济、政策投资及科技与城建等4个大类出发,选取18个指标,分析了乌鲁木齐市耕地面积的变化态势和规律。采用主成分和多元回归的分析方法,揭示了耕地面积变化的驱动机制;采用相应的指标体系构建耕地面积变化驱动模型。[结果]研究表明:近10年乌鲁木齐市耕地面积呈减少-增多-减少趋势,而GDP、居民储蓄存款、市区总人口及财政支出是影响耕地面积变化的主要因素。[结论]鉴于此,该研究为乌鲁木齐市土地资源的合理配置、土地利用规划以及耕地资源的科学利用提供决策依据,为实现当地资源、环境与经济的可持续发展提供了新的思路。     

长江三角洲耕地资源态势与可持续利用

长江三角洲是我国经济最发达的地区之一,但随着经济的高速发展,耕地资源锐减,人地矛盾愈加突出,制约了经济的发展;分析了该区耕地资源的现状,提出了可持续利用对策,包括做好土地利用规划,加大土地执法力度;改造中低产田,合理开发利用土地后备资源;进一步调整农业产业结构,改善土地生态环境;加快城镇化建设步伐,提高土地利用效率;加强土地整理工作,保持耕地总量的动态平衡等。     

Cultivated land productivity potential improvement in land consolidation schemes in Shenyang,China: assessment and policy implications

Cultivated land productivity potential improvement (CLPPI) assessment is the fundamental basis to launch land consolidation, which is one of the most important way to increase the grain productive capacity. Previous studies on CLPPI assessment have focused on factors related to natural conditions of cultivated land, but they ignored the impacts of utilization conditions, including plot characteristics and agricultural infrastructure, which account for substantial CLPPI from land consolidation. Based on the crop-growth model and Agro-ecological Zoning (AEZ) methodology, this paper proposed a modified CLPPI assessment model to estimate the improvement of land productivity potential via land consolidation. Meanwhile, the contribute rates of different factors involved in determining the CLPPI were also analysed to reveal the ideal work focus and policy direction for land consolidation. Results showed that the calculated CLPPI values had obvious spatial variety in Shenyang, of which the average was 326.18. For the consolidation case, total crop production in Shenyang could be increased by as much as 149.89 × 107 kg, 20% of the current yield. CLPPI is the comprehensive outcome of both natural and utilization qualities of land use, and the current productivity potential of cultivated land in Shenyang relied much less on natural conditions such as soil than on utilization conditions such as agricultural infrastructure. In addition, medium-productivity lands were most appropriate target areas for the implication of land consolidation projects. Actually, the arrangement of land consolidation projects should not only consider CLPPI as in the past, but also add the theoretical productivity potential into consideration. Moreover, the realization of estimated CLPPI also calls for active changes of the whole land management system. An integrated institution for the full implementation of land consolidation, proper regulations and laws on the follow-up protection of cultivated land productivity potential, economic policies to stimulate the willingness of farmers, and a transfer mechanism for cultivated land are all needed policy changes.     

城市老城区私房用地使用权探讨

研究目的：对历史遗留的城市老城区私房用地使用权定性和转让等管理制度创新进行探讨，为完善国有土地地籍管理制度，保障私房用地权利人合法权益，健全城市土地收益分配机制提出建议。研究方法：基层调查法，归纳总结法。研究结果：明确了城市私房用地使用权确定的复杂性和必要性，提出了城市私房用地使用权性质确定和地籍管理制度完善的初步性建议。研究结论：应加紧出台城市老城区私房用地使用权专项法规制度，推进登记发证工作。     

耕地资源价值探讨

研究目的 :构建自然资源的价值论 ,界定耕地资源的价值内涵 ,最终实现耕地资源价值重建和耕地保护的目的。研究方法 :文献资料法和比较分析法。研究结论 :耕地保护问题的关键在于把耕地资源总价值纳入耕地经营收益中 ;国内外对耕地资源价值的研究存在着价值范畴不清和耕地资源价值研究的理论基础尚未建立的问题 ;使用价值是哲学价值在经济学中的表现形式 ,效用是使用价值的抽象 ;修正的边际效用价值论是科学合理的自然资源价值论 ;耕地资源总价值不等于经济价值 ,耕地资源总价值包括可以用货币衡量的价值和不能用货币衡量的价值 ,其中可用货币衡量的价值不仅包括经济价值 ,还包括生态价值、社会价值、认识价值的生产价值、道德价值的生产价值和审美价值的生产价值。