近15年来中国土地利用冲突研究进展与展望

研究目的:总结和梳理中国近15年来土地利用冲突研究文献,分析土地利用冲突的研究现状,展望未来的研究方向和重点。研究方法:基于中国知网、中文科技期刊数据库及万方数据知识服务平台学术文献数据库,采用文献调研法。研究结果:当前中国土地利用冲突研究具有很多共同的关注点,主要集中在土地利用冲突概念演变、类型与区域分布、原因及机制、评价与管理等4个方面。研究结论:在全面评析土地利用冲突研究成果的基础上,认为未来应当重点关注5个方面的研究:(1)理论基础和整体分析框架研究;(2)评价指标体系和定量模型研究;(3)多尺度(微观—中观—宏观)综合研究;(4)区域土地利用冲突情景模拟研究;(5)理论与实践相结合研究。     

Trade-offs of European agricultural abandonment

Agricultural land abandonment is a policy challenge, especially for areas with unfavorable conditions for agriculture and remote and mountainous areas. Agricultural abandonment is an important land use process in many world regions and one of the dominant land use change processes in Europe. Previous studies have shown that abandonment can have both positive and negative effects on several environmental processes, influenced by location and scale. Preferred policies and management of these areas are debated given concerns for the loss of (traditional) agricultural landscapes and potential impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We present a European-scale impact assessment of the possible effects of agricultural abandonment, based on eight indicators that are on the forefront of the agricultural abandonment debate. Using a multi-scale modelling approach, we expect between 71.277 and 211.814 km² of agricultural abandonment in 2040. Impacts on the indicators and trade-offs between the impacts are spatially variable. A typology of typical trade-off bundles at a 1 km² resolution resulted in four typical trade-off clusters. All clusters identified are characterized by a loss of agriculture-related values, such as agro-biodiversity and cultural heritage. For two clusters, this was accompanied by positive effects on indicators such as carbon sequestration, nature recreation and mammal habitat suitability. Overall, our results indicate that location and scale are key to assess the trade-offs originating from agricultural abandonment in Europe. Identification of typical trade-offs bundles can help to distinguish potential desirable outcomes of agricultural abandonment and assist in targeting measures to areas that face similar management challenges.     

An agent-based learning-embedded model (ABM-learning) for urban land use planning: A case study of residential land growth simulation in Shenzhen,China

A forward-looking urban land use plan is crucial to a city’s sustainability, which requires a deep understanding of human-environment interactions between different domains, and modelling them soundly. One of the key challenges of modelling these interactions is to understand and model how human individuals make and develop their location decisions by learning that then shape urban land-use patterns. To investigate this issue, we have constructed an extended experience-weighted attraction learning model to represent the human agents’ learning when they make location decisions. Consequently, we propose and have developed an agent-based learning-embedded model (ABM-learning) for residential land growth simulation that incorporates a learning model, a decision-making model, a land use conversion model and the constraint of urban land use master plan. The proposed model was used for a simulation of the residential land growth in Shenzhen city, China. By validating the model against empirical data, the results showed that the site-specific accuracy of the model has been improved when embedding learning model. The analysis on the simulation accuracies has proved the argument that modelling individual-level learning matters in the agent’s decision model and the agent-based models. We also applied the model to predict residential land growth in Shenzhen from 2015 to 2035, and the result can be a reference for land-use allocation in detailed planning of Shenzhen. The ABM-learning is applicable to studying the past urban growth trajectory, aiding in the formulation of detailed residential land and public service facility planning and assessing the land use planning effectiveness.     

基于多维尺度分析的土地科学决策支持系统研究现状分析

研究目的：分析国内近16年土地科学决策支持系统研究动态，探讨其发展趋势。研究方法：共词聚类分析法和多维尺度分析法。研究结果：通过分析土地科学决策支持系统的相关文献，土地科学决策支持系统可分为土地利用规划决策支持系统、土地空间决策支持系统、土地评价决策支持系统、土地生态安全决策支持系统以及其他土地管理决策支持系统5种类型，并对其研究现状和发展趋势进行了分析。研究结论：（1）土地利用规划决策支持系统目前国内研究较多，关注度较高。其他方向还有待进一步研究。（2）随着3S、专家系统、数据挖掘等技术的不断发展，决策支持系统得到不断的完善和发展，一些新的技术和理论方法将被引入决策支持系统。土地科学决策支持系统将向集成化、智能化、网络化及可视化方向发展。     

Land use and climate change in the UK

This paper reviews the relationships between land use and climate change. It explores how land use decisions will be affected by future changes in the climate, but also the feedbacks from land use change to the global climate system through greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes. Past changes in land use were characterised by decreasing areas of agricultural use and increasing areas of forested and urbanised land. This has led to UK land use being a net sink for GHGs, mostly due to forestation. However, existing forests have on average passed their age for maximum net removals of carbon from the atmosphere. In the next decade at least, net removals from UK forests are likely to decrease significantly.Longer term scenarios of future land use change are consistent in their expectation of further declines in the agricultural area used for food production – offset to some extent by increased bioenergy cropping – along with increases in forested and urban areas. These trends are broadly consistent with the observed past land use change, but are calculated from various assumptions about future changes in drivers rather than by extrapolation from the past. Socio-economic and technological changes are likely to be the most important drivers for land use, with climate change having a smaller influence. The land use changes represented in these scenarios would likely reduce GHG emissions and enhance carbon sinks. These trends would be reinforced by small future changes in the climate, but large climatic changes are likely to cause net GHG fluxes to switch from being a sink to a source. Land use change will also be moderated by potential policy goals that seek to reduce GHG emissions from land and/or increase the size of land-based sinks. This includes strategies to reduce carbon and nitrogen emissions through increased efficiency, afforestation and biofuel production.     

Land use and the state of the natural environment

Land use and land cover are important determinants of the state of the natural environment. As a result, measures of land use and land cover change have been widely used as indicators of environmental condition and quality. This review explores the range of measures that have been applied in the UK at national, regional and local scales, and their sensitivity to particular drivers of change. The extent to which these indicators are important properties in themselves or are surrogates for wider environmental qualities is considered.The discussion focuses on the evolving frameworks used to analyse the relationships between land use and the state of the natural environment. The limitations and strengths of the DPSIR reporting and analytical framework are explored. Recent approaches to the assessment of the impacts of future land use change on the natural environment using model-based scenario methods are examined, and the need to develop new types of aggregate measure of land use function is identified. There is also a pressing need to link assessments of trends to the analysis of sustainability thresholds or limits. It is concluded that the concept of a socio-ecological system offers a more fruitful approach to the analysis of the relationships between land use and the state of the natural environment than the simplistic cause–effect models that have been used in the past.     

The future of the uplands

Upland areas provide UK society with many important functions, goods and services, but have experienced a number of disturbing trends and face an uncertain future. This paper outlines historic, current and future drivers of environmental, economic, socio-cultural and policy change in UK uplands, and assesses how these have affected or are likely to affect ways in which land is used and the provision of ecosystem services. Information is synthesised into scenarios summarising a range of possible futures anticipated for UK uplands to 2060 and beyond. Finally, innovations in science, technology, governance and policy are evaluated that could enable uplands to continue providing key ecosystem services under a range of scenarios. The paper concludes that many upland areas will need to be prepared for significant reductions in grazing and prescribed burning. Conversely, other areas could experience agricultural intensification, for example significant increases in grazing or an expansion of arable or bioenergy crops into upland valleys, due to anticipated increases in global demand for food and energy. These scenarios will take place in the context of climate change. Many may take place together and may interact with each other, with complex and unpredictable implications for the upland environment, economy and society. In this context, a number of advances are needed in science, technology and policy to maintain viable upland communities and the future provision of ecosystem services. These may include funding for ecological and hydrological restoration via carbon offsetting or other means. It may also involve advances in ecosystem service modelling, mapping and valuation, which through stakeholder participation could facilitate more integrated rural planning. New forms of environmental governance need to be explored that can empower those interested in developing upland economies to maintain thriving upland communities, while managing the ecosystem services they provide as efficiently as possible.     

中国国土空间用途管制的基础性问题思考

研究目的:明确国土空间用途管制的科学内涵,讨论新时代统一国土空间用途管制体系的基础性问题。研究方法:理论分析法和归纳演绎法。研究结果:(1)国土空间用途管制的对象是一个空间、属性与行为三位一体的复杂系统,管制实施中需协调好实体空间、功能空间与管理空间的关系。同时,异质性、动态性与尺度性等主要空间属性影响着管制实践的效率。(2)新时代国土空间用途管制完善了用途管制理念方法,但实践的滞后性引发了系统治理思维与分区分类管控的矛盾,空间尺度性与事权划分不匹配,管制手段中审批与许可关系不清等问题。(3)机构改革为自然资源统一管理带来机遇,但管制主体的职能界限模糊与"上下不对齐"的治理结构设置也带来了新的挑战。研究结论:国土空间用途管制在国家现代化治理体系中发挥着举足轻重的作用,内容体系逐渐完善,但基础理论认知和管制实施的矛盾仍旧突出,需要在今后的实践中不断改进。     

Spatially explicit micro-level modelling of land use change at the rural–urban interface

This paper describes micro‐economic models of land use change applicable to the rural‐urban interface in the US. Use of a spatially explicit micro‐level modelling approach permits the analysis of regional patterns of land use as the aggregate outcomes of many, disparate individual land use decisions distributed across space. In contrast to the models featured by Nelson and Geoghegan, we focus on models that require spatially articulated data on parcel‐level land use changes through time. In characterising the spatially disaggregated models, we highlight issues uniquely related to the management and generation of spatial data and the estimation of micro‐level spatial models.     

土地利用变化驱动力多尺度因素的定量影响分析

研究目的:揭示多尺度土地利用变化研究中尺度因素对驱动力的定量影响。研究方法:构建Logistic回归模型和二分类反应变量两水平Logistic回归模型,分别基于面向尺度对比的多尺度回归分析和基于系统观点的多水平模型分析两个角度,探讨多尺度土地利用变化核心驱动力及其定量影响关系,并对两类模型的分析结果进行对比分析。研究结果:面向尺度对比的多尺度回归分析法能够从更为微观的角度揭示各个尺度层级上地类变化的核心驱动因子,而基于系统观点的多水平模型分析方法则能够更好地顾及尺度因素的定量影响。研究结论:多水平模型分析方法揭示的各个地类的核心驱动因子集与多尺度回归分析法推导的对应地类的核心驱动因子集之间呈现子集关系,两者在多尺度土地利用变化驱动力的研究方法上能够形成互补。     

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the experiment, we tested three combinations of scenarios across two time periods, comparing survey responses of individuals reading a set of scenarios with individuals who did not read scenarios. Reading scenario narratives increased willingness to participate in land use planning activities and perceived self-efficacy. Measures of interest and sense of community also increased willingness to participate. Tests of an indirect mediation model found self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of reading scenarios on willingness to participate. This latter relationship may be a mechanistic explanation for the effect of reading scenarios. Envisioning the future with brief, bulleted scenarios of land use change in a print format appears to increase self-efficacy in planning for the future. Our results suggest scenarios can serve as a vehicle for changing public participation in land use planning.     

Using scenario planning to assess governance reforms for enhancing biodiversity outcomes

Governance arrangements frame and direct how land managers respond to the multiple demands and challenges of conserving biodiversity. Biodiversity conservation requires attention to how social-ecological systems (SES) change and can be influenced over time. It is important that governance settings within these systems can support achievement of biodiversity outcomes. Two questions then arise. Will current arrangements lead to desirable biodiversity outcomes, and if not, are there other arrangements that plausibly might do better? However, methods for answering these questions in collaboration with critical stakeholders such as policy makers and land managers are not evident in the literature. The aim of this paper is to explore the use of a participatory scenario planning process to test the efficacy of proposed governance reforms for enhancing biodiversity outcomes in two contrasting landscapes in Australia. A workshop process was used to consider the effect of the reform options on key drivers of change, and thus how these affected drivers would in turn modify future scenarios, and the biodiversity outcomes of these scenarios. In both landscapes, there was a preference for reforms that retained governmental influence or control, in contrast to academic calls for adaptive governance that emphasises the importance of self-organisation and devolution of authority. The workshop process, although complex and cognitively challenging, was regarded by participants as suitable for testing the utility of alternative governance options for biodiversity conservation. Challenges for the future include designing and considering reforms based on what is possible rather than probable or preferable, and engaging participants over time to build knowledge, engagement and trust. The paper concludes with suggestions for addressing these challenges.     

Of mice and men: Why the unintended consequences of carbon markets matter

Land tenure remains one of the most critical factors determining equity under REDD+, as we demonstrated through our previous article, ‘Roots of inequity: how the implementation of REDD+ reinforces past injustices”. Githiru responded to this paper, with some apparent challenges to both the empirical basis and theoretical arguments, that we had put forward. In this rebuttal, we demonstrate that there were no empirical differences between our original paper and Githiru’s response that had bearing on our findings, but that there are substantial differences in our interpretations of legality and equity, and consequently divergence about who can expect to benefit from REDD+. In a context where land ownership has historically and presently involved processes of dispossession, marginalization and even evictions, this rebuttal illustrates the complexity of the dominant discourse on land tenure and benefits under REDD+ and shows how social safeguards will need to take historical context and people’s current entitlements and agency into account, if equitable outcomes are to be defined and realized.     

土地科学学科独立性研究——兼论土地科学学科体系研究思路与框架

研究目的:研究探讨并确定土地科学学科是否具有独立学科的本质属性,在此基础上提出土地科学学科体系研究思路与框架。研究方法:根据《中华人民共和国学科分类与代码国家标准(GB/T 13745-2009)》的定义,依据科学学方法,从讨论土地科学学科有无不可替代的核心理论和不可替代的研究域入手,研究土地科学学科的独立学科属性。研究结果:土地科学学科是一门具有不可替代的土地权籍核心理论,并与土地租价、土地可持续利用理论共同构成有机联系不可分割的核心理论轴,同时具有不可替代的3维3层3环耦合空间研究域的独立学科。研究结论:(1)借助逻辑和空间分析方法,提出的土地科学学科3维3层3环耦合空间研究域,揭示了土地科学学科的本质属性,从而解开了有关土地科学学科的多个重大难题。(2)通过有关土地科学学科发生、演进和发展趋势的研究分析,揭示了:1土地科学学科与相关学科交叉的本质,是由于人类不断提高土地生产力的内生要求牵引,引致土地科学学科研究域内生性扩张导致的交叉;2土地科学学科研究域是一个随着人类提高土地生产力而对应扩张的3维3层3环耦合空间域,且仍会伴随人类不断提高土地生产力的要求持续扩张。(3)通过有关不可替代核心理论及核心理论轴,3维3层3环耦合空间研究域及其形成,学科发生、演进和发展趋势的研究分析,提出了有关土地科学学科的完整系统学说。     

The demise of swidden-fallow agriculture in an Atlantic Rainforest region: Implications for farmers’ livelihood and conservation

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest is widely recognized for its high levels of biodiversity and endemism. Its vast region concentrates also a large number of small farmers, who historically have been practicing swidden-fallow cultivation. Globally, there is contradictory evidence of the current fate of this traditional, integrated agricultural system, and the new land uses may have a strong impact on farmers’ livelihoods and ecosystem conservation. In this study, we assessed the land cover and land use change in a watershed where slash-and-burn cultivation was prevalent, aiming at understanding the drivers of change and discussing past and possible future impacts, including the perception of farmers on the drivers of land use change. We combined information gathered from interviews with 15 key informant farmers and from the analysis of remote sensing images for the years 1957, 1978 and 2011. Swidden-fallow cultivation has declined steadily since the 1950s. Part of the land was abandoned and forest succession was allowed to occur, increasing the total forest area; an apparently positive outcome. However, conversion to pastures and Eucalyptus plantations not only used much of the open land but also converted successional forests through deforestation, based on remote sensing. The willingness of farmers to grow more Eucalyptus and raise more cattle further increases concerns about the prospect for conservation. Our approach, combining remote sensing-based land change quantification and interviews, revealed to be complementary, allowing a better understanding of the past and possible future scenarios for the land use dynamics.     

Perceptions about land use

Although there are only a limited number of rigorous research papers focussed specifically on land use perceptions, there is an extensive literature on: environmental attitudes in general and urban growth in particular, as well as on the land use perceptions of farmers and on public perceptions about the use of land for the production of food and raw materials. A number of key themes emerge. First, the urban public are resistant to urban growth and have an ingrained and deep attachment to ‘traditional’ and romanticised visions of rural land use. Second, farmers, the main managers of land use, have proved resistant to concepts of multifunctional land use. Third, there is a perception gap between the practice of food production as a damaging land use exercise and consumer ignorance about the realities of how food and other raw materials are produced. However, consumers support the ideas of farmers being paid to use their land in a more environmentally friendly way. Fourth, there is a value-action gap between people's perceptions of the land use damage they are doing and their lack of willingness to actually change their behaviours. The drivers behind these perceptions are likely to change as carbon reduction policies begin to impact. So the paper concludes with a discussion about future perceptions and possible behavioural change.     

土地利用规划学30年发展综述

研究目的:系统总结、研究中国土地利用规划学产生以来的发展历程和取得的重要成果,提出中国土地利用规划学的未来发展趋势和土地利用规划学学科建设重点问题及方向。研究方法:文献调研法。研究结果:20世纪80年代以来,土地利用规划学经历了关注全域农地合理利用、以加强耕地保护为关键、以完善土地用途管制为核心的3个演进阶段;土地利用规划理论方法、土地利用规划评价技术、土地利用规划信息技术、土地利用规划协调方法是土地利用规划学的重要研究领域。研究结论:未来应进一步创新具有中国特色的土地利用规划理论和方法、推动由"土地用途管制"向"国土空间用途管制"发展、关注土地利用规划评价体系和方法的系统化和实用化、推进基于生态文明建设视角的空间规划体系创新。     

Pathways for a future cadastral system: A socio-technical approach

A vast array of trends and innovations, such as drones and person-to-person trust solutions, have been proposed to revolutionize the task of recording land and property rights. There is, however, a gap in current research regarding how to approach systematically the future(s) of cadastral systems. This paper introduces socio-technical transitions theory and multi-level perspective (MLP) framework in particular as a way to structure potential pathways for cadastral systems. The approach emphasizes the role of institutional rules of the game – the regulative, normative and cognitive institutional elements – in socio-technical transition processes. Using the Finnish cadastral system as a case study, we illustrate the approach by forming three alternative transition pathways: (1) a cadastral system under digital transformation, (2) differentiating urban and rural cadastral systems, and (3) a cadastral system facing new data management challenges. After describing each transition pathway with a narrative storyline, we reflect them in light of previous discourses of the cadastral domain. Thereby, the study provides new insights into discussions about the future of cadastral systems and land administration in general.     

Understanding recurrent land use processes and long-term transitions in the dynamic south-central United States,c. 1800 to 2006

Forests have historically been under significant land use pressures that cause periods of degradation, clearance, and recovery. To understand these changes, studies are needed that place trends in a historical landscape context and also examine recent dynamics. Here, we use historical investigation (c. 1800) and an examination of land use and land cover change between 1973 and 2006 to establish a baseline trajectory of the forested system of the south-central United States (US) plains. The study culminates in a highly detailed accounting of the processes and causes of land change between 2001 and 2006. In the study region, the forest transitioned from early low-intensity use, to clearance for farming and timber, to widespread recovery from degradation beginning in the 1930s. By 1970, the region was transitioning from recovered woodlands to an intensive regime of recurrent timber harvest and replanting. The recurring cycle inherent in intensive silviculture has been the main cause of land change for the past several decades, accounting for more than 95% of the total extent of change between 2001 and 2006. The transition to forest recovery in the south-central US was an important historical occurrence. However, the dynamic post-transition landscape needs to be better understood.