宏观经济不确定性、融资约束与企业现金持有行为——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文建立一个简化的存货缓冲模型来形式化管理者的现金持有决策,并基于中国非金融类上市公司2001-2009年间的面板数据,考察不同融资约束条件下宏观经济不确定性对企业现金持有行为的影响。研究发现,宏观经济不确定性对企业的现金持有水平具有显著的正向影响;相比于低融资约束的公司,高融资约束公司的现金持有水平对宏观经济不确定性变化具有更高的敏感性。研究结果有助于增进对中国制度情境下企业流动性需求行为的理解。     

高铁开通的微观治理效应——基于现金持有的实证研究

随着中国高铁建设进入黄金期,高铁开通给企业带来的经济效益日益凸显。本文基于2005-2016年沪深两市上市公司的面板数据,以其办公所在地城市是否开通高铁作为外生冲击,采用双重差分(Differences-in-Differences)方法实证检验了高铁开通对企业现金持有水平的影响以其作用机制。研究发现,高铁通车以后,沿线上市公司的现金持有水平显著降低,进一步机制检验发现,当公司面临较为严重的融资约束以及处于较弱的外部治理环境时,高铁开通对现金持有水平的降低效应更显著,表明高铁开通对企业现金持有水平的影响主要通过缓解企业的融资约束与降低代理成本来实现。本文的研究丰富和拓展了高铁开通及现金持有等领域的相关文献,同时提供了交通基础设施建设影响公司微观行为的经验证据。     

房地产上市公司现金持有水平的实证研究

选取沪深两市120家A股房地产上市公司作为样本,研究其2009—2011年的财务数据,运用描述性分析、双样本T检验分析房地产上市公司现金持有的现状,并构建回归模型探求房地产上市公司现金持有水平的影响因素及其决策效果。研究结果显示:目前房地产上市公司存在高额现金持有情况,盈利能力和现金持有水平呈显著正相关,负债水平和现金持有水平呈显著负相关,其现金持有水平对公司业绩有着显著的正向效应。     

融资约束对现金持有动机强弱影响的实证分析

在不同的财务背景下公司现金持有动机强弱表现是否存在差异,这是学术界近年研究的热点。文章以1998—2006年连续四年有数据的沪深上市公司为样本,通过公司规模四分位数、样本期间发生股利支付与否作为融资约束与否的判别标准,分析融资约束公司与非融资约束公司现金持有动机强弱表现差异。实证结果表明：我国上市公司融资约束与否直接影响到现金持有决策过程中动机强弱的表现。为了避免现金短缺和投资机会的丧失等情况的发生,我国上市公司在整个现金持有决策中均表现谨慎,注重现金持有的预防性动机和交易性动机作用的发挥。     

金融发展、产权特征与中国上市公司融资约束——基于现金—现金流敏感度分析

本文采用修正的现金—现金流敏感度模型,以2009—2011年沪深两市A股所有上市公司为样本,研究了金融发展水平、产权特征对中国上市公司融资约束的影响。研究结论表明,金融发展水平高低、产权性质以及产权结构均对上市公司的融资约束具有显著影响,具体来说:国有企业面临的信贷约束显著小于非国有企业,且金融水平发达地区的上市公司面临的融资约束小于金融水平欠发达的地区;适中的股权集中度有利于降低中国上市公司的融资约束水平。     

中国上市公司现金持有的行业差异研究

上市公司为什么持有大量现金？影响上市公司现金持有水平的因素有哪些？本文从公司融资角度，以中国2005至2008年上市公司为样本，运用方差分析和多重比较方法，实证研究企业现金持有的行业差异。结果表明，我国上市公司现金持有比率4年间整体上呈下降趋势，现金持有水平行业特征比较明显。其中，传播与文化产业和信息技术业类企业的现金持有比率较高，而房地产业的现金持有水平较低。这种差异，无论是行业门类之间，还是行业大类或制造业中大类之间都是显著的，且在不同年份这种差异是比较稳定的。     

涉农上市公司的实际态势:内源融资博弈外部融资

融资约束问题已经成为制约农业上市公司规模扩张和产业带动作用的重要因素。以现代企业融资理论为基础,通过将农业上市公司与非农业上市公司进行横向比较,从内源融资与外源融资两个方面分析我国农业上市公司面临的融资约束问题发现,农业上市公司得到了一定的政策扶持,但依然面临较强的内部融资约束与信贷配给;农业上市公司在股权市场上的融资比重并没有显著增加,与承担的风险相比,股东收益率明显偏低。     

从“流动性陷阱”看企业现金持有水平与绩效

文章着手于对"流动性陷阱"的刻画,继而视角转向现金持有水平。结合微观主体与宏观经济政策的互动关系,主要探讨了现金持有水平的影响因素及超额现金对企业绩效的影响,结论如下:1.我国现金持有水平较高,但没有广泛爆发"流动性陷阱";2.国家控股、股权集中均会造成企业现金持有量增加;在股权集中的企业中,国家控股又会进一步刺激现金持有;3.宽松的货币政策、财政政策均会减少现金持有量;经济不景气时,宽松的货币、财政政策使得国有企业现金持有水平提高;4.超额现金持有量正向促进企业绩效的提高。     

风险水平、替代性损失融资与企业保险需求——对A股制造业上市公司的经验研究

论文采用Heckman样本选择模型,以2010-2013年间A股制造业上市公司为研究样本,分析企业风险水平和替代性损失融资渠道对制造型企业保险购买可能性和购买数量的影响。研究结果表明,企业风险水平越高,保险购买可能性越大,但与之相联系的高成本制约了企业保险购买数量;企业是否购买保险与现金持有水平存在替代效应,现金持有量充足时企业更倾向于用自有资金进行损失融资,但保险购买数量与之存在依附关系,保费支付受制于现金持有水平;剩余举债能力对企业保险购买具有负面影响,在负债与保险两种损失融资方式之间,企业更倾向于前者。论文利用最新数据构建了企业可保风险水平和替代性损失融资的衡量指标,在微观层面量化研究了我国企业财产保险需求不足问题,并为企业和保险公司提供了相关决策建议。     

政治关联能够提高企业现金持有价值吗?

以我国2008－2013年沪深两市A股类上市公司为研究样本,从企业现金持有的角度研究政治关联对企业价值的影响。首先从企业现金持有的动机出发,研究政治关联对企业现金持有水平的影响,然后在委托代理理论的框架下,研究了政治关联对现金持有价值的影响。研究发现,政治关联虽然会增加企业现金持有水平,但是却降低了现金持有价值。进一步研究发现,只有在完善的内外部治理机制下,政治关联才能够增加企业现金持有价值。     

A note on tests of efficient market hypotheses: The case of the forward exchange rate

The purpose of this paper is to show that the definition of market efficiency based on rational expectations presents serious problems for empirical hypothesis testing on data that consist of equally spaced observations. Indeed, one can argue that the efficient market hypothesis is, in a strict sense, immune from empirical falsification for the typical data set. This idea is developed for an application of the efficient market hypothesis to the foreign exchange market, i.e., the notion that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased and efficient predictor of future spot exchange rates.     

Estimating the Euler Equation for Aggregate Investment with Endogenous Capital Depreciation

This article looks at the empirical consequences of introducing endogenous capital depreciation in the standard neoclassical model with quadratic adjustment costs. To this end, we formulate an empirical specification that accommodates capital maintenance and utilization in the Euler equations for aggregate investment. The empirical estimates with data from the Canadian Survey on Capital and Repair Expenditures show that, in contrast to the existing literature, the performance of the Euler equations is improved when we account for the impact of variable capital depreciation.     

Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?

Budget deficit has been a common fiscal pressure facing Chinese cities since the 1994 fiscal reform. Meanwhile, land lease sales have become a significant off-budgetary revenue to local governments since 2003. This paper investigates whether financing budget deficit is an important driving force of the recent soaring housing prices when local governments function as the monopoly supplier of urban land. A conceptual framework is developed to illustrate a transmission mechanism from budget deficit to housing prices. This leads to an empirical model consisting of two simultaneous structural equations for housing prices and land prices. Using data for the 35 major Chinese cities from 2003 to 2011, an empirical exercise shows that although budget deficit has a positive effect on land prices, it is the factors from demand side, such as amenities, income and the user cost of housing capital, that have been pulling up the housing prices.     

Multinational Enterprises,Technology Diffusion,and Host Country Absorptive Capacity: A Note

Abstract

Previous empirical studies show mixed support for the hypothesis that the impact of technology diffusion from multinational enterprises (MNEs) on host country productivity growth depends on host country absorptive capacity. One explanation is that the results of these empirical studies are sensitive to the measures of absorptive capacity used. This paper contributes to the empirical literature by investigating average years of schooling and total factor productivity gap as measures of host country absorptive capacity in 38 developed and developing countries. Panel data regression equations are estimated using a cross-sectionally heteroskedastic and timewise autoregressive (CHTA) model. The paper has two main results. The first result does not support the hypothesis that the technology diffusion from MNEs has a positive impact on the productivity growth in developing countries. The second result is that the total factor productivity gap is more appropriate than average years of schooling to measure host country absorptive capacity. This may suggest that the results of previous studies that used average years of schooling should be interpreted with caution.     

The interest elasticity of savings in developing countries: The existing evidence

This paper presents a critical analysis of some of the most recent empirical work on the interest elasticity of savings in developing economies, supported by a set of empirical results. The paper argues that: (a) the real interest elasticity of savings is not easily detected using the existing empirical models, which generally yield insignificant interest rate parameters in the seventies; (b) the existing models suffer from serious defects that make if very difficult to interpret the estimated parameters.     

On Taxation,Political Accountability and Foreign Aid: Empirics to a Celebrated Literature

The Eubank findings on taxation, political accountability and foreign aid have had an important influence on academic and policymaking debates. Eubank has warned that his findings should not be generalised across Africa until they are backed by robust empirical evidence. This paper puts some empirical structure to the celebrated literature. The empirical evidence which is based on data from 53 African countries for the period 1996‐2010 broadly confirms the Somaliland‐based Eubank hypothesis that in the absence of foreign aid, the dependence of government on local tax revenues provides the leverage for better political governance.     

Empirical vintage models for the Netherlands: A review in outline

Summary The abundant literature on empirical vintage modelling for the Netherlands is not easily accessible. This article provides a discussion of the main issues covered by that research. Attention is given to (theoretical) model specifications, empirically inspired adjustments and empirical results. The empirical evidence for vintage models appears to be convincing, but it does not seem conclusive with respect to a preference for eitherex ante complementarity orex ante substitutability. Comprehensive modelling for the economy of the Netherlands up to now mainly usesex ante complementarity to describe the production technology. Apart from this, policy implications of such models show a degree of nuance which exceeds but also includes the purely demand oriented approach.     

Does Life Expectancy Affect Private Educational Investment in China？

In this paper, we emphasize the interactive effect between life expectancy and human capital accumulation, and test the positive feedback of longevity to educational investment in China. This is very important for understanding the pressure from the aging population and the increase in private educational investment in China. We first show in an extended human capital investment model that life expectancy growth acts as a driving force for educational investment. We then build a difference‐in‐difference‐in‐differences empirical framework and use cross‐province data to examine the effect in China. We use the maternal mortality rate (MMR) to identify the difference in life expectancy between genders, and the illiteracy rate or average years of education by gender for educational investment. The empirical results comply with the theory, in that increases in life expectancy significantly lower illiteracy rates and improve the average schooling years in China. This content of the present paper is closely related to crucial issues like population aging, human capital accumulation and gender discrimination. Policy implications are discussed based on the empirical results.     

Sickness, absenteeism, presenteeism, and sick pay

The annual cost of absenteeism from the workplace in the UKhas been estimated to be over 1% of GDP. The traditional approachto a discussion of absence has been for the firm to passivelyaccept both wages and sick pay and allow workers to choose theirabsence behaviour. Most empirical research has been based onthis approach. However, if absence is costly why should firmspay extra-statutory sick pay? One reason may be the phenomenaof presenteeism (ill workers attending work). This may adverselyaffect productivity. This paper shows that allowing for presenteeismhas important implications for both the design of optimal wage-sickpay contracts and for the interpretation of empirical studies.Specifically, we show that firms will offer a level of sickpay greater than the statutory minimum.     

Asymptotically distribution-free statistical test for generalized lorenz curves: An alternative approach

A generalized Lorenz (GL) curve differs from a Lorenz curve in that the former is a rescaled version of the latter. A GL curve represents the relationship between the average income computed from a cumulative percentage of the population and the corresponding cumulative percentage. GL dominance is a useful criterion for ranking GL curves either for an economy over time or for a number of economies at one point in time. Relative to a dominated GL curve, a dominating GL curve indicates both that total income for the population is higher and that it is more equally distributed. Hence, it is obviously more desirable in a certain social sense. While sound statistical tests are essential for making statistical inference about GL dominance from sample GL curve estimates, the lack of a suitable joint test procedure for GL dominance is an unsolved problem in income distribution literature. This paper aims at solving this problem and provides an illustrative empirical example to show how to apply this test procedure in empirical research.