小泉东盟五国之行与"小泉构想"

在日本与东盟经济环境发生新变化、面临新课题以及日本通商政策和集团化战略发生重要变化的情况下,小泉东盟五国之行提出了日本对东盟外交的新理念和“小泉构想”。小泉构想虽然受到了东盟各国的欢迎,但也有不和谐的弦外之音。由于小泉构想的空洞性和暧昧性,再加上日本国内农业自由化的掣肘,如何实现小泉构想,乃是日本今后的重要课题。     

日本走向二十一世纪的战略目标——实现“国际国家日本”

日本的当权者认为,日本正处在“从传统岛国走向世界的伟大历史转折时期”,“追赶欧美发达国家的使命已经基本结束”,开始从以往“模仿和追随的文明开化时代”迈向“首创和领先的文明开拓时代”,在这一时代,日本所追求的最大目标就是实现“国际国家日本”。现任首相中曾根康弘执政以来,曾多次强调指出:“实现国际国家日本是现代日本的最大目标”,是日本“制定并推行一切世界政策的出发点”,必须“为实现向世界开放并同世界一起前进的国际国家日本而竭尽全力”。实现“国际国家日本”,已被确定为自民党及其政府的战略目标。     

小泉内阁在经济改革方向的艰难处境

日本新首相小泉纯一郎为日本经济重建确立的政策目标近来成为日本国内和国际社会关注的一个焦点。对小泉内阁驾驭经济的能力，日本国民抱有很高的期待，国际社会亦寄予愿望。但日本经济面临的难题很多：国家财政濒临崩溃，不良债权痼疾难除，国内需求依旧疲软，国际环境每况愈下。新内阁强调进行“断然的改革”，但改革措施能否使日本经济真正走上自律性恢复的轨道，还有待时间的检验。     

略论小泉时代日本的经济政策及其成效

小泉执政之初,日本经济发展状态低迷:GDP增长率长期停滞不前并趋降,存在大量不良债权和财政赤字等。小泉执政后,陆续出台了“反通缩对策”、“三位一体”财政改革和邮政民营化等一系列经济对策来刺激经济景气,健全经济结构和优化投资环境。“小泉改革”使日本经济步入自律性复苏轨道,各项经济指标都有较大提升,基本摆脱了萧条局面。但不可否认,小泉执政时期仍存在经济发展易受国际市场影响、人口减少、老龄化以及规制太多等诸多问题。     

小泉的经济结构改革及其对我国的影响

日本已陷入长达十年的经济衰退,至今仍未有走出衰退的迹象。小泉上台后提出“不进行结构改革,日本就无法再生和发展”的主张,开始了大刀阔斧的改革。在经济全球化日益发展的今天,小泉的改革不仅对日本经济而且对中国经济都会产生不可忽视的影响。本文首先分析了日本经济长期不景气的症结,进而分析了小泉改革对日本经济的短期和中长期的影响,最后本文对小泉改革对我国的影响以及我国的对策做了剖析。     

评日本“有事法制”的出台及其实质

20 0 3年 6月 ,日本国会众参两院通过了“有事法制” ,它意味着日本自卫队不仅可以走出家门 ,走向“周边” ,还可以走向世界各个角落 ,置和平宪法于有名无实的地步。“有事法制”是日美亚洲、太平洋战略的重要组成部分 ,是日本向军事大国目标迈出的切实步骤 ,同时还是一部突破和平宪法的“战争法”。它的顺利通过标志着日本政治右倾化的加剧 ,是日本修改宪法、发展军备、建立国军的前奏曲 ,为亚洲和太平洋地区的和平安全带来隐患。     

试论日美同盟的生命力

同盟的生命力主要取决于同盟所面临的“威胁”的明确性和强度、同盟成员国相互关系的紧密程度以及同盟成员国内部主张结盟的政治势力的地位。冷战结束以来,日美同盟经过短暂的“漂流期”以后获得新的定义,同盟的生命力日趋增强。其主要因素是:日美双方逐步明确同盟所面临的共同“威胁”特别是所谓“中国军事威胁”;日本政府尤其是小泉政权的极度亲美政策导致日美关系的紧密化;日本国内政治保守化与美国国内新保守主义抬头的互动。从长期看,日美同盟并非铁板一块,它与日本走向“普通国家”的目标既有相一致的一面,又有相矛盾的一面。如何应对日美同盟的调整,争取实现中国追求和平发展所需的周边安全环境,成为中国外交的重大课题。     

安倍内阁的国家战略

安倍晋三再次执政后，努力突破各种限制，积极推动日本的“正常化国家”进程。一方面，安倍推行“价值观外交”，拉拢东盟国家，强化日美同盟关系。广泛参与到国际事务中，期望进一步提升日本在全球范围内的地位和影响力。而围绕中日钓鱼岛争端，日本竭力扩充军备，加强在西南岛屿方向上的军事存在，并在各种场合下鼓吹“中国威胁论”，为修改和平宪法寻找借口。而其根本原因在于日本当前的国家战略定位。即实现日本的国家正常化。其核心就是日本对军事和政治大国的追求。     

安倍政权与日本的亚洲外交

小泉政权虽已经不复存在,但是“小泉剧场”却不会因小泉的离去而冷清,“小泉剧场”正在新上演“安倍剧”,这些都是这个时代的“日本剧”。安倍政权将在多大程度上维持、何种程度上抛弃“小泉政治”,是值得关注的问题。安倍政权在亚洲外交方面进行怎样的策略安排,也一个值得关注的核心问题。短期看,安倍将奉行一种“暧昧性的战略”,采取避重就轻的过渡性方针。     

日本财政重建会一帆风顺吗

日本财政已经到了崩溃的边缘，重建财政是小泉内阁面临的主要课题之一，小泉主张实行财政结构改革，控制国债发行，减少财政支出，这些措施迎合了日本公众的口味，但具体实施过程中，必然会遇到各种阻力和限制，财政政策目标也可能因此被迫做出调整。     

Penetration and Post-infection Development of Meloidogyne Incognita on Tobacco as Treated by Rhizobacteria Pseudomonas Fluorescens Strain P-72-10

The bio-control potential of rhizospere bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens against plant-parasite nematode had been demonstrated. P. fluorescens had shown the effect to enhance tobacco resistance to root-knot nematode Meloidogyne incognita. Inoculation with P. fluoreseens in tobacco could lead to significant reductions in the number of juveniles that penetrated tobacco root and further life stage development of the juveniles. The number of juveniles penetrated into tobac- co root in treatment with P. fluorescens is significantly different from CK at 2DAI, 6DAI, 8DAI and 10DAI. Significant reduction and delayed development of juveniles that penetrated into tobacco root and treated were observed in treatment at 14DAI, 21DAI, 28DAI and 35DAI. In addition, P. fluoreseens treatment leads to a significant reduction in the number of eggs per egg-mass at 35 DAI. The results show P. fluorescens induced a continuously suppression on root-knot nema- tode M. incognita throughout their entire early infection phase of root penetration, subsequent life stage development and reproduction.     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

For Better or for Worse? Local Impacts of the Decentralization of Indonesia’s Forest Sector

This paper quantifies the local impacts of mechanized logging on forest-dependent communities in Indonesia, before and after decentralization. A conceptual framework incorporates financial, social, enforcement, rent-seeking, and environmental impacts. Using data from 60 communities in East Kalimantan, the empirical results suggest that significantly more households received financial and in-kind benefits after decentralization compared to before. Many communities engaged in self-enforcement activities against firms both before and after decentralization. Post-decentralization, a significantly higher proportion of households perceived community forest ownership. There were few significant differences in perceived environmental impacts. Little evidence exists of a post-decentralization trade-off between environmental and financial contractual provisions.     

以资本管理为核心的银行治理综合评价指标研究

商业银行的特殊性体现在风险性、外部性和多重治理目标上，尤其集中体现在风险管理的本质上。风险管理日益成为现代商业银行的主体活动和核心职能，资本管理成为现代商业银行风险管理的核心。在整合EVA和RAROC指标的基础上。文章构建了以资本管理为核心的银行治理的综合评价指标，以求真实反映银行经营的成果，有效衡量风险收益和风险成本的对比关系，从而反映以资本管理为核心的银行风险管理的过程、能力和效率。     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.     

Markteintrittstiming von Telekommunikationsdiensteanbietern

Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Studie analysiert für 87 Neuprodukteinführungen (NPE) und Auslandsmarkteintritte (AME) von Telekommunikations(TK)-Diensteanbietern in Deutschland, zu denen 42 Schlüsselinformanten in einer schriftlichen Befragung Auskunft gaben, (1) inwieweit deren zeitliche Eintrittspositionierung durch Marktcharakteristika und Unternehmensressourcen erkl?rbar ist sowie (2) inwieweit und gegebenenfalls unter welchen unternehmensexternen und -internen Situationsbedingungen deren Markteintrittstiming mit dem wahrgenommenen Eintrittserfolg assoziiert ist. Ein früher Markteintritt wurde dann realisiert, wenn die Wettbewerbsintensit?t im adressierten Gesch?ft niedrig und das Budget für den Expansionsschritt überdurchschnittlich ausfielen. Zwischen dem Markteintrittstiming und der Beurteilung des Eintrittserfolgs bestand ein nicht monotoner, umgekehrt U-f?rmiger Zusammenhang: Frühe Folger wiesen signifikant bessere Erfolgswerte auf als Pioniere und sp?te Folger, deren Erfolgsniveaus nicht signifikant divergierten. In einer Industrie, die durch starke externe Netzeffekte gepr?gt ist, fallen offenbar die Nachteile eines Markteintritts als Pionier oder sp?ter Folger st?rker ins Gewicht als die Vorteile dieser beiden zeitlichen Eintrittspositionierungen. Unabh?ngig vom Markteintrittstiming wurden NPE/AME von TK-Unternehmen als erfolgreicher eingestuft, wenn sie sich in einen Markt mit stark wachsender Nachfrage und aufeinander abgestimmt (re)agierenden Wettbewerbern mit qualitativ überdurchschnittlichen, abw?rtskompatiblen, erprobbaren und wenig erkl?rungsbedürftigen TK-Diensten engagierten.