城中村拆迁改造一些问题的探讨──以秦皇岛市为例

文章首先分析了城中村改造中存在的主要问题 ,包括 :城中村无证房多、村民的实际的生活水平不高和对拆迁补偿安置的期望较高等。然后提出了合理对待村公产的拆迁补偿安置、适当制定无证房的补偿标准、重视拆迁前准备工作和科学慎重地选择拆迁改造的开发方式等拆迁改造解决对策 ;最后 ,对不同改造开发方式的优、缺点进行了分析。     

一般城市融入都市经济圈一体化进程的路径选择

就都市经济圈内一般城市融入一体化进程的基本方向和主要路径进行分析,指出其具体的路径选择主要包括培育统一要素市场,对接产业分工与协作,融入都市圈快速交通圈,打造通用信息平台,遵循区域发展总体规划实施城镇体系发展分区规划,交流与共享人才资源,创新政府公共协调制度等方面.一般城市通过上述方式汇入都市圈一体化进程,以此实现整个都市圈,进而实现城市自身利益最大化的发展目标.     

County capital cities,county public finance and county economic geography

We are interested in the county governments role for the county seat economy. Our suggestion is this: Rather than discuss changes in county seat location at a given budget (representing a rare natural experiment), we should look at changes in county budget holding fixed county seat location (yielding a steady flow of observations). In the papers model changes in the county budget translate into changes in county seat employment. In the papers empirical test against a sample of German county seats we find it difficult to reject this.Received: February 2003, Accepted: Accepted May 2004JEL Classification: R53, H72, R23Kristof Dascher: I have benefitted from comments by three anonymous referees. I am also grateful for financial support from the CEPR research network on Foreign Direct Investment and the Multinational Organization, funded by the European Commission under contract number ERBFMRXCT980215.     

Forecasting risk with Markov-switching GARCH models:A large-scale performance study

We perform a large-scale empirical study in order to compare the forecasting performances of single-regime and Markov-switching $\text{GARCH}$ ($\text{MSGARCH}$) models from a risk management perspective. We find that $\text{MSGARCH}$ models yield more accurate Value-at-Risk, expected shortfall, and left-tail distribution forecasts than their single-regime counterparts for daily, weekly, and ten-day equity log-returns. Also, our results indicate that accounting for parameter uncertainty improves the left-tail predictions, independently of the inclusion of the Markov-switching mechanism.     

西部城市化新城市策略及促成方式

西部城市化可以有新的战略思考,可以考虑不依赖大城市、中等城市发展的策略,在新创城市方面利用工业推进法、人口拉动法、资金拉动法、大城市边缘渗透扩展法以及其他可作为新城市生长点的因素,譬如特有的自然旅游条件、特有的风土人情、特殊事件等,来实现城市化的突破.     

屏蔽效应下非中心地城市发展研究

借用物理学中的"屏蔽效应"概念,指出中心地城市截留区域外生产力要素向区域内非中心地城市的流动,对非中心地城市在开放性市场经济条件下的发展形成了一种不同于"积聚效应"的新障碍;认为非中心地城市必须要立足于比较优势建立产业结构,并改善对外贸易条件,加强区际贸易,才能实现与中心城市的一体化.     

小城镇经济辐射区研究--以重庆为例

本文以重庆为例,分析了小城镇经济辐射区范围的形成受行政范围、自然条件、人口规模、城镇用地规模、经济结构、经济规模、交通和市场等八个主要因素的影响,指出小城镇经济辐射能力弱、辐射范围小是欠发达地区普遍存在的现实问题,并在此基础上提出了相关建议.     

城市拆迁重在补偿

随着中国经济的发展、城市面貌的改变,城市化已经成为社会发展不可抗拒的时代潮流。城市化是人类从落后走向文明不可抗拒的规律,城市拆迁成为一个不可回避的社会问题。文章针对当前城市拆迁中出现政府职责不清、安置补偿不合理等问题进行分析,并提出相应的政策建议。     

The economic evolution of democracy

Using a variant of the Ramsey growth model, we explore the relationships between economic growth and the emergence of democracy. We argue that democracy acts as a commitment device to economic reforms favored by an elite under the threat of rebellion. Consistent with British economic history we model liberalizing reforms of the labor market as the mechanism by which the elite redistribute resources to the poor. We find that if democracy emerges it is preceded by a period of growth, however the emergence of democracy will only encourage further growth if the redistributions it entails do not significantly hamper capital accumulation.      

The impact of the US on Latin American business cycles: A new approach

Business cycles in Latin America have tended to be more volatile than those in wealthier nations such as the US. Accordingly, much research has been conducted on Latin business cycles, as well as the impact of the US on such fluctuations. Some research seeks to find how “integrated” cycles are in the US and Latin America, yielding conflicting results. We apply a new method to the question of business cycle synchronization between the US and nine Latin nations. We find that in the majority of cases integration has been rising in recent years. We also find, contrary to some previous studies, that integration does not appear to be affected by either the level of trade or of capital account openness. Finally, we find that the two countries that are dollarized – Ecuador and El Salvador – appear least integrated with the US. This last finding has potentially troubling implications in terms of the ability of these nations to adjust to asymmetric shocks vis-à-vis the US.     

The US debt–growth nexus along the business cycle

We use the US data gathered by Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) to assess whether debt affects economic growth differently at different phases of the business cycle. In order to do that, we extend the threshold regression model of Chudik et al. (2017) and propose a new threshold quantile ARDL regression model. Our results show that to stimulate growth policy makers can manage the debt/GDP percentage according to how well the economy is doing. The estimated quantile thresholds (range 31–53 per cent) are larger than the one found by Lee et al. (2017) using median regressions, but still (much) smaller than the 90 per cent of Reinhart and Rogoff. In particular, when the US economy observes growth rates above their median value, that is when a smaller debt-to-GDP threshold affects the performance of the economy. In a steady-state situation, in general, regardless of the position of the business cycle and whether the debt-to-GDP ratio is below or above its threshold effect, less debt as a percentage of GDP boosts the US growth. Remarkably, this effect was always greater before than after World War II. Moreover, the most recent decades have witnessed the negative (positive) effect of more (less) debt when the economy had growth rates at their first quartile (median and third quartile). That is, the US policy makers are advised to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio during expansions to promote growth.     

中国优秀旅游城市体系分析

利用城市体系研究的相关理论和方法,对中国优秀旅游城市体系的等级规模结构和空间结构进行了研究与分析,旨在借此透视以中国优秀旅游城市为代表的中国旅游城市体系的宏观结构;分析得到的有别于一般城市体系的、针对旅游职能的特殊类型城市体系的研究结果,将有助于我国旅游城市的宏观结构调整,促进我国城市旅游的整体发展.     

中国城市最低生活保障标准的比较与评价

认为名义最低生活保障标准难以真实反映各地区最低生活保障救助的实际效果,引入新的指标,对中国城市近年来最低生活保障标准和实质救助水平及其变化趋势进行比较,同时为政府有关部门对最低生活保障的政策选择和评估提供一个新工具。研究结果显示,名义最低生活保障标准较高的城市,如深圳、上海等,其实质救助水平并不高。     

Remittances and economic growth: A study of Guyana

Using an augmented Solow framework and an ARDL bounds test for cointegration, we explore the short- and long-run effects of remittances, aid and financial deepening on growth in Guyana using annual data for the period 1982–2010. The results show that remittances have a positive and significant effect both in the short and the long run. Aid has a negative effect in the long run and financial deepening is not statistically significant. The Granger-causality test reveals that capital stock, aid and financial deepening cause remittances inflow in Guyana.     

科学发展观与资源型城市可持续发展

认为资源型城市是我国城市职能体系中的一种重要的城市类型,在我国社会经济建设过程中曾做出了重大的贡献.然而,由于其自身发展的特征以及知识经济、信息经济和经济全球化等新的经济形态和经济现象的出现,资源型城市面临着较为严重的经济、社会、生态可持续发展问题.在分析资源型城市的发展特征、新经济时代资源型城市所面临的可持续发展问题的基础上,提出了以科学发展观为指导的资源型城市可持续发展的对策措施.     

Strategic interdependence, governance effectiveness and supplier performance: A dyadic case study investigation and theory development

Inter-organizational exchange governance approaches are often characterized as two broad types: relational and transactional. However, in fast changing business contexts, the contextual contingencies do not present ideal conditions for practicing purely relational or transactional approach. Understanding the dynamic of key contextual factors and their effects on a firm's resource capabilities and inter-organizational power structure is crucial for identifying the appropriate governance structure over time. In this paper we explore the exchanges between an OEM and five of its strategic suppliers that operate in high-end, short product life cycle motorbike industry, to understand the key contextual factors and the relationships among business context, governance structure, and exchange practices in a dyadic context. It is observed that firms deviate from the conventional choices of either transactional or relational governance to a combination of contractual and relational aspects to make the governance structure effective. Based on case studies, a theoretical framework is proposed to explain the rationale, feasibility and effectiveness of combining contractual and relational aspects in different contexts. The framework suggests that the degree of strategic interdependence between the trading partners fundamentally drives the effectiveness of governance structure and exchange practices.     

关于我国城市可持续发展的几点思考

在全球和区域视角下,对城市可持续发展进行了理性思考,并提出以下观点:统筹城乡发展,实现城乡协调化;发展城市群,实现经济发展的集约化;建立不同尺度的区域循环产业,实现城市发展的生态化;建设道路通讯网络,实现要素的流动化;划分重点区域,实现城市与区域发展的协调化;完善社会保障体系,实现市民社会等观点.     

资源型城市转型的理论分析

在资源型城市产业经济转型过程中,替代产业、接续性产业的选择主要取决于市场,由市场决定,但这并不否定城市当局对城市产业发展的积极导向作用.其结论为,在特定情况下,城市当局任其矿竭城衰可能是最佳选择.     

二级城市发展现代服务业的困境和解决途径--以苏州、无锡、杭州为例

近年来,我国大都市区中的二级城市在制造业的支撑下获得了快速发展,形成了制造业和首位城市水平分工,现代服务业高度依赖首位城市的产业分工格局.本文从维持二级城市经济持续成长的角度出发,以上海都市区的三座特大二级城市苏州、无锡和杭州为例,研究了二级城市现代服务业发展的现状,分析了二级城市现代服务业发展的限制性因素,从市场、优先发展的部门、产业组织、制度环境的营造等方面探讨了加速二级城市现代服务业发展的可能途径.     

Using data envelopment analysis to evaluate efficiency in the economic performance of Chinese cities

This paper studies the use of DEA (data envelopment analysis) as a tool for possible use in evaluating and planning the economic performance of China's cities (28 in all) which play a critical role in the government's program of economic development. DEA promises advantages which include the absence of any need for the assignment of weights on an a priori basis (to reflect the supposed relative importance of various outputs or inputs) when evaluating technical efficiency. It is also unnecessary to explicitly specify underlying functions that are intended to prescribe the analytical form of the relations between inputs and outputs. Finally, as is illustrated in the paper, DEA can be used to identify sources, and estimate amounts of inefficiencies in each city's performance as well as to identify returns-to-scale possibilities in ways that seem well-suited to the mixture of centralized and decentralized planning and performance that China is currently trying to use.