Workouts, Deep Pockets, and Fire Sales: An Analysis of Distressed Real Estate

This paper presents a conceptual analysis of issues that relate to the management of distressed real estate assets. The paper examines the decision implications of the major characteristics of real estate assets and real estate markets in the light of information and incentive problems that emerge when assets fail to perform as anticipated. The paper focuses on the determination of commitments of additional resources to a troubled property, the identification of efficient holders of distressed assets, and the consideration of policies toward the disposition of distressed assets. The paper concludes that in many instances asset sales, rather than causing further destabilization as suggested by the fire sale image, are likely to contribute to reducing the costs associated with distress.     

Contract Design for Problem Asset Disposition

As a result of declining real estate values and the receivership of numerous financial institutions, government regulators like the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have large inventories of distressed assets. This paper develops a model of the principal/agent issues associated with management and disposition of problem assets. In the model, optimal contracts balance risk sharing with incentives for effort. We argue that the RTC will minimize the ultimate cost of the thrift crisis by placing managerial control of distressed assets in the private sector, while retaining full or partial ownership of the assets for risk-sharing purposes. Recoveries are maximized, however, only when an asset manager is incented to expend a first-best level of effort by indexing asset management and disposition contracts to market movements.     

GMM Repeat Sales Price Indices

Illiquid assets are widely spread within the economy but their indices are difficult to measure. This paper proposes a Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) repeat sales regression for estimating illiquid asset price indices. This method has estimators that are arithmetic averages of individual asset returns. This method is able to estimate custom-weighted indices, including equal- and value-weighted indices. It can incorporate hedonic variables to improve estimation accuracy, and it can work with a reweighting technique to mitigate a biased sample problem. Simulations based on artificial markets indicate that the method is more accurate than some alternatives in both efficient and sluggish markets, with and without temporal aggregation. As an application, we use this method to estimate a commercial property price index.     

AFTER-TAX ECONOMIC REPLACEMENT ANALYSIS

This paper examines after-tax serial replacement analysis under current United States tax law. The law explicitly defines the difference between an asset disposal (retirement) and a like-for-like exchange (replacement). A gain or loss is only realized when an asset is retired while a replacement leads to the transfer of any residual book value balance to the acquired asset. This transferal greatly complicates analysis and leads to non-stationary solutions, even with time invariant costs. We analyze the effect of this movement in book value for assets on replacement decisions. Furthermore, a dynamic programming formulation is presented with a state space defined by asset age and initial book value, as current replacement models cannot correctly capture the after-tax cash flow implications of this balance transfer. The new model is compared to traditional after-tax replacement models which assume that a gain or loss is realized at each asset sale over the horizon. Examples illustrate that this assumption can lead to widely different solutions, especially in the cases where gains or losses from asset sales are large.     

The Price Effects of Cash versus Mortgage Transactions

This paper investigates the price effects of cash versus mortgage transactions. Our hypothesis that home sales involving all-cash transactions will sell at discount is borne out by the results of this study. Analyzing a sample of comparable row home dwelling units, we find that all-cash transactions are associated with roughly a 13% price discount relative to transactions involving financing terms that are typical of the market. Cash is King. The findings are consistent with theories regarding buyer—seller behavior.     

Remarks on Engineering Economy Studies from the Viewpoint of Statistical Decision Theory

Lack of credit during periods of financial stress can reduce sales in an entire supply chain. To reduce the reliance on external credit, we introduce a new financing framework in which key supply chain stakeholders accept delayed payment for a pre-agreed portion of their product or service. By doing so throughout the supply chain, each stakeholder must self-finance only their in-house activities—but not the cost of purchased components and services because those are in turn financed by their suppliers. Intended to account for only a small fraction of sales, this framework is limited to supplying customers who do not qualify for external financing. The payments from these customers are distributed among the value chain stakeholders according to an agreed-upon policy. These additional sales would otherwise be lost for lack of consumer credit. This approach increases sales and profitability for the entire supply chain and is especially advantageous during credit crunches. In addition to describing this new financing framework, this article places it in the context of other financing arrangements, provides an example with cash flow and net present value calculations, and identifies implementation challenges and characteristics of supply chains that are good candidates.     

On The Park-Thuesen Index and the Value of Earlier Uncertainty Resolution

In practice, engineering economic analysis involves uncertainty about future cash flows. To deal quantitatively with imprecision or uncertainty, fuzzy set theory is primarily concerned with vagueness in human thoughts and perceptions. As an alternative to conventional cash flow models where cash flows are defined as either crisp numbers or risky probability distributions, we propose an engineering economic decision model in which the uncertain cash flows and discount rates are specified as triangular fuzzy numbers. The present worth formulation of this fuzzy cash flow model is derived. The result of the present worth is also a fuzzy number with nonlinear membership function. The present worth can be approximated by a triangular fuzzy number. Deviation between exact present worth and its approximate form is examined. Finally, the fuzzy project selection is performed by applying different dominance rules. To demonstrate the application of the fuzzy present worth function, a comprehensive numerical example is presented.     

CEO Overconfidence,REIT Investment Activity and Performance

This is the first article to study the effects of overconfidence on trading activity and performance in real estate. The article looks at Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), as their investments and divestments can be identified with precision. We look at the effect of CEO overconfidence on investment activity and separately investigate property acquisitions and dispositions. We find that REITs with overconfident CEOs tend to invest more; these REITs acquire more assets and are less likely to sell assets than their counterparts if they have enough discretionary cash. Valuable private information is not the main driver for CEOs to be net buyers of company shares: the shares of their companies perform relatively weakly. In addition, we find that overconfident managers have lower property investment performance measured by net operating income and gain on sale of real estate.     

Integrating Illiquid Assets into the Portfolio Decision Process

We consider the issues associated with modeling the decision to invest in an illiquid asset, such as real estate, over an extended period of time. Markets for illiquid assets tend to display certain characteristics: for example, significant time‐till‐sale and correlation in the rates of return over time. More importantly, as the liquidity of a market cannot be an issue if an investor never needs to liquidate an asset, we focus on how the liquidity of a market interacts with an individual's uncertain need to liquidate. We show that the optimal strategy is state contingent, if possible. We also show that the penalty associated with an illiquid investment depends on the characteristics of other assets being held in the portfolio, on the characteristics of liquidity shocks and on the interaction between time and behavior. We show that borrowing to pay for a liquidity shock cannot overcome all of the costs of owning an illiquid asset. In contrast, borrowing at t = 0 benefits from the complementarity in the assets. In a simpler model, we show that the portfolio perspective makes illiquid assets more valuable to an investor with a longer time horizon.     

企业债务期限结构与自由现金流的门限关系研究

文章创新性地运用了微观企业数据，通过构建面板门限模型考察了企业债务期限结构与企业自由现金流的非线性关系，并进一步揭示了宏观经济波动对企业债务期限结构与自由现金流关系的影响。研究发现：第一，企业债务期限结构与企业现金流的关系因为债务利息的不同呈现出双重门限效应。主要表现为当企业债务利息处于较低水平时，企业自由现金流与债务期限结构呈反向相关关系；当企业债务利息处于较高水平时，企业债务期限结构与债务期限结构呈正向相关关系；第二，宏观经济波动影响企业债务期限结构与自由现金流关系的敏感性。最后，从提高自由现金流的利用率、完善多层次资本市场建设以及降低融资杠杆等方面提出对策建议。     

A review of: “PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN MANUFACTURING AND HIGH TECHNOLOGY OPERATIONS” by Adedeji B. Badiru,John Wiley and Sons,Inc., New York, 1988, xxii + 319 pp., ISBN 0471-62892-1, List $44.95.

The conventional approach to considering working capital cash flows in capital budgeting is to omit them or include some ad hoc figures at the initiation and termination of the project. The authors argue for an endogenous system of estimating relevant working capital cash flows on a periodic basis. Otherwise, the present value of working capital cash flows is biased against the project's acceptance. Examples of calculating working capital cash flows as related to changes in annual sales are presented for three time patterns of sales and contrasted to the conventional method. An empirical study of the linear relationship of net working capital and sales revenue of 770 companies is reported, and an alternative cash flow model is offered thai includes working capilal cash flows.     

中国银企不良资产清算分析

从企业管理者、股东和债权人之间的利益分配关系看，目前我国还没有建立起一个以债权人为主导的企业筛选机制。建立和完善企业筛选制度，不仅是我国市场化进程中的一个重要环节．是实现资源市场化配置的必然渠道，而且是不良资产清算的制度保证：不良资产的多样化出售的目的主要是最大限度地以最高价格出售不良资产，为此需要在信用增级、公开操作原则、间接出售方式和完善的市场环境支持出售等各个环节上进行创新：“债转股”是常规不良资产清算手段难以奏效而破产清盘损失又太大时债务重组的最后一招．中国是典型的“政策型”债转股，并因此而生成了不少实施风险。中国的债转股要取得成功．一要建立健全资产管理公司的激励和约束机制，二要全力提高资产管理公司的能力．使其有动力也有能力高效率地完成任务。     

Creative Financing and House Prices: A Theoretical Inquiry into the Capitalization Issue

Since buyers offer a premium for access to creative financing (CF), creatively-financed houses will sell for more than otherwise identical houses purchased with standard financing. A commonly suggested method for adjusting house values to eliminate the effects of CF is the "cash equivalence" method, where the CF premium is assumed to equal the present value of savings from CF. This paper shows that in a world with active housing speculators, the cash equivalence approach gives the right answer: In an "arbitrage" equilibrium, house values must differ by exactly the present value of CF savings. Further analysis shows that when capital markets are perfect, each consumer is indifferent between CF and standard financing when arbitrage equilibrium obtains. Without perfect capital markets, however, consumers will strictly prefer one financing mode or the other.     

Short-term financing in a cash-constrained supply chain

In this paper we consider a two-level supply chain with a single retailer and a manufacturer, where both the firms are facing financial constraints and can not produce/order their optimal quantity. Our work shows that a lender who finances the manufacturer has a motivation to finance the retailer as well. Motivated by this, we investigate lender's problem of financing both the firms by making a joint decision on the loan amount and comparing it with the case when lender makes independent decision on loan amount for both the firms. Our numerical study indicates that if one of the firms in the supply chain has sufficiently low cash, joint decision (we refer to it as supply chain financing) may be better not only for the lender but for the retailer and manufacturer as well.     

Discount Brokerage in Residential Real Estate Markets

Transaction costs are thought to affect asset prices and market liquidity, but the direction and magnitude of these effects continue to be the subject of debate. In the single‐family residential market, discount brokers offer to list a house for a lower price and thus reduce the transaction costs associated with obtaining a match. In this article we obtain empirical estimates of the price and liquidity impact of a seller selecting a discount broker to market a single‐family residential property. The unique data set allows for the identification of residential properties that were listed by a discount brokerage firm. The empirical results confirm the predictions of our theoretical model. Using a sample of 318,221 listings and 243,625 sales, we find that houses listed by discount brokers sell at prices similar to non‐discount brokerage listings, but are less likely to sell, and when they do sell, take approximately three days longer to sell. The results indicate that lower transaction costs do not impact housing prices in this market, but that they are related to asset liquidity.     

Elective Stock Dividends and REITs: Evidence from the Financial Crisis

In response to the recent financial crisis, the U.S. Government introduced new rules which allow Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) to issue elective stock dividends (ESDs), i.e., noncash dividends, to satisfy their distribution requirements. The purported goal of these rules was to provide temporary relief to REITs facing cash flow problems. We investigate how the introduction of these rules affects dividend policy of REITs. Surprisingly, we document that only 17 REITs chose to issue elective stock dividends. We examine the characteristics of these REITs and find that their cash flows are similar to REITs that do not select these dividends. This suggests that cash flow problems are unlikely to be the primary determinant of the ESD issuance decision. Instead, our findings indicate the decision to pay ESDs is related to the level of loans that are close to maturity, REIT size, growth prospects and poor performance during the financial crisis. Furthermore, we find that the same factors determine the ratio, amount and frequency of stock dividends issued by these REITs. We also examine the response of shareholders to ESDs announcements and find positive abnormal returns surrounding these dividend announcements.     

Project Valuation With Time-Varying Cash Flows: A Bayesian Approach

This article investigates the valuation of a project when the distributions of cash flows vary over time. The decision maker is assumed to be a Bayesian decision maker under uncertainty. Using the dynamic programming principle of backward induction and assuming that the capital asset pricing model is valid in each time period, we derive the project's valuation formulas and systematic risks, and investigate their characteristics. Our valuation formulas embed a Bayesian learning effect and differ from the traditional textbook capital budgeting formulas.     

Inside Ownership, Risk Sharing and Tobin's q-Ratios: Evidence from REITs

We investigate relations among inside ownership, managerial expenses, risk sharing and equity valuations. Our engine of analysis—Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)—provides a unique and rich framework for analysis since we can calculate extremely accurate measures of asset replacement costs, and hence relative valuation (Tobin's q ). Further, the nature of the financial statements allows us to examine the impact of insider ownership on agency costs since we can accurately measure the costs of the entire management team. Our results show that firms with greater insider holdings tend to invest in assets with lower systematic risk and use less debt in their capital structure. At the same time, managerial expenses are lower as inside ownership increases. Finally, higher levels of insider ownership are associated with higher relative valuation as measured by both higher premiums to net asset value and higher multiples of cash flows. The results have implications for the design of optimal management contracts for both REITs and firms in general.     

Managing liquidity in research‐intensive firms: signaling and cash flow effects of patents and alliance activities

The effective holding and management of liquid assets is critical to success in research‐intensive industries. The primary output of invention is new knowledge. However, because of its ‘sticky’ characteristics, knowledge may not easily diffuse to external shareholders, leading to knowledge asymmetries between managers/employees and external suppliers of capital. Many valuable R&D projects may thus fail to attract external financing, limiting a firm's ability to invest in R&D. In this study, we examine how the cash flow and signaling properties of a firm's patents and certain aspects of its alliance strategy can attenuate such problems. Specifically, we suggest that a firm's R&D investments positively predict the level of its liquid asset holdings. This is due to the fact that invention‐induced knowledge asymmetries increase the firm's cost of accessing external liquid capital. However, holding cash entails opportunity costs. In this regard, we also find that patent production and certain alliance activities provide important signaling mechanisms, which reduce knowledge asymmetries between the firm and capital markets, and consequently lower the firm's need to hold liquid assets. Empirical tests were conducted using a sample of 108 U.S‐based biotechnology firms. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Role of Real Estate in the Portfolio Allocation Process

This study explores the role of direct real estate investment in a portfolio context incorporating the real estate imperfections of indivisible assets and no short sales. Mean-variance efficient portfolios are calculated using Treasury-bills, bond and equity indices together with cash flows and appraised values from a set of twenty-two properties having an aggregate appraised value of $336 million. Real estate diversification benefits are shown to be the greatest with smaller properties and are most advantageous at higher target levels of return. The study suggests that a 9% allocation to real estate is optimal, rather than the 20% figure suggested in other studies.