2007年全国电力供需形势分析及2008年预测

2007年，我国电力工业供应持续增强，全国电力装机容量突破7亿千瓦．达到71329万千瓦；消费则延续了2006年的强劲增长态势，全社会用电量完成32458亿千瓦时，同比增长14．42％。预计2008年全社会用电量增长率将在12．5％左右，全年电力消费弹性系数将继续下降到1．2左右，各月发电设备利用小时数将在上半年继续下降，下半年略上升，全年累计发电设备利用小时将在5000小时的水平上略有下降。     

2014年电力工业运行简况

2014年,全国电力消费增速放缓,全社会用电量55233亿千瓦时,同比增长3.8%,比上年回落3.8个百分点;全口径发电量55459亿千瓦时,同比增长3.6%,比上年回落4.1个百分点。截至2014年底,全国发电装机容量13.60亿千瓦,比上年增长8.7%。全年发电设备平均利用小时数为4286小时,同比下降235小时;受电力消费增速放缓和水电发电量快速增长等因素影响,全年火电设备平均利用小时数同比下降314小时,为4706小时。电力消费。2014年,全国全社会用电量55233亿千瓦时,同比增长3.8%。其中,第一产业用电量994亿千瓦时,     

发电设备利用小时数变化的影响因素及变化趋势分析

从1978-2008年我国发电设备利用小时数的统计数据，分析影响发电设备利用小时数的主要因素，认为发电设备利用小时数与GDP、发电装机增速等因素相关。对于我国发电小时数变动趋势、影响因素以及国际比较等方面的特点与规律进行了解析，并对规避投资风险、提高电力行业效率提出了建议。     

未雨绸缪 应对发电设备利用小时变化

全部类型发电设备利用小时数以及火电设备利用小时数的下降、上升,不能简单归咎为装机容量的过剩或不足。应对发电设备利用小时的变化,电力企业要做好综合优化预案,及时制定企业新时期的发展战略,提前筹划企业经营与对标预案。政府部门在制定能源电力发展规划和年度计划过程中,要统筹安排好常规火电与新能源发展的结构比例。     

未雨绸缪 应对发电设备利用小时变化

全部类型发电设备利用小时数以及火电设备利用小时数的下降、上升,不能简单归咎为装机容量的过剩或不足。应对发电设备利用小时的变化,电力企业要做好综合优化预案,及时制定企业新时期的发展战略,提前筹划企业经营与对标预案。政府部门在制定能源电力发展规划和年度计划过程中,要统筹安排好常规火电与新能源发展的结构比例。     

供需“晴雨表”：火电5300小时

发电设备利用小时数据的变化不单是受电力供需关系的影响，而且也直接受电源结构变化的影响，特别是受与火电相比其发电设备出力率较低的水电、风电规模变化的影响、从历史经验来看，火电设备平均利用小时数在5300小时以下，表明全国电力供需平衡有余，5300小时到5700小时表明供需紧张，超过5700小时就是缺电状态     

以流程为中心的发电精益运营模式

发电企业面临运营效率和盈利能力的挑战 据初步统计，2007年底全国发电装机容量已达到7．2亿千瓦。2005年～2007年，共投产2．7亿千瓦，全国装机容量年均增长17％。随着电力项目大规模投产，“十一五”期间电力供应能力将大幅度提高，发电企业的发电设备利用小时数将进一步下降，会降低发电企业存量资产的盈利能力，同时将加快竞价上网的预期。     

我国发电设备利用小时数下降应启动联动测算

中国电力企业联合会(以下称中电联)日前发布的《全国电力供需形势及经济运行形势分析预测(2006~2007年度)》中预测,2007年发电设备利用小时数将继续下降,为5000小时左右。     

华中电网水电企业电力市场需求分析

本文分析华中电网水电企业"十一五"期间面临的市场需求和竞争状况.作者采用电力消费弹性系数法对中国以及各大区2010年的电力需求增长进行预测,井根据各地区发电容量增长情况和网间传输能力增长情况,计算"十一五"后各大区发电设备利用小时数.作者认为华中电网在2010年后将成为竞争最激烈的电力市场,并在文章最后为管制部门、电网公司和水电企业提供了相应建议.     

供需“晴雨表”:火电5300小时

发电小时拐点发电设备利用小时数据的变化不单是受电力供需关系的影响,而且也直接受电源结构变化的影响,特别是受与火电相比其发电设备出力率较低的水电、风电规模变化的影响。从历史经验来看,火电设备平均利用小时数在5300小时以下,表明全国电力供需平衡有余,5300小时到5700小时表明供需紧张,超过5700小时就是缺电状态。     

中国天然气发电产业发展现状及展望

中国燃气发电装机及发电量占比较小,发电用气占比低于全球平均水平;发电设备利用小时数较低,平均上网电价较高。当前中国天然气发电产业面临的挑战包括:政策体系尚不健全,产业定位不清晰;天然气资源保障存在不确定性;气电燃料与设备运维成本偏高;上网电价的定价机制尚待理顺;电力市场改革快速推进,市场竞争更加激烈。中国电力需求将延续增长态势,电源结构向低碳转型;中国天然气行业处于高速发展期,气源供应保障能力进一步提升;供给宽松期叠加市场化改革加速期,促进发电用气成本下降;燃气发电电力工程造价呈下降趋势,这些都是天然气发电产业的机遇。展望"十四五"期间,实现"十三五"气电装机规划目标存在较大难度;受经济性制约,"十四五"期间气电发展节奏的不确定性较大;生态环境约束背景下,中长期天然气发电发展空间依然广阔;中国天然气发电产业发展路径将呈现多元化趋势。     

Economies and Diseconomies: Estimating Electricity Cost Functions

This paper presents estimates of the variable cost function ofelectricity generation. The cost function is estimated using a two dimensional definition of capacity utilization. Because electricity cannot be conveniently stored, generation facilities follow the load across demand cycles. Capacity utilization can be captured empirically in two ways. One is generation relative to capacity when a unit is connected to the system; the other is thepercent of time the unit is disconnected. The estimated cost function shows that both dimensions affect average cost, which generally declines as capacity utilization increases.     

上网电价政策对发电企业成本的影响分析

通过对我国上网电价测算方法的比较，得到相应电价机制下发电企业的电价成本模型。不同电价机制下的电力工程造价系数说明，只有标杆电价政策对发电工程造价即发电项目固定成本存在明显约束，而经营期电价政策可以相对减缓发电企业电力工程造价见涨的趋势，也说明事前定价机制下发电企业降低成本的努力程度更大。发电企业减少成本的努力程度与单机容量和年利用小时数成正比。电价政策的改革调整激励发电企业采用高参数、大容量、低煤耗的大机组。从电价政策对发电企业运营成本的影响来看，不同电价政策郝对发电企业减少其运营成本有激励作用。近年标杆上网电价水平的调整能给企业带来更多的收益，而煤炭价格的上涨进一步加大了发电企业的成本控制压力。     

未来十年我国天然气利用趋势探讨

近年来,我国天然气消费结构逐渐由以化工为主向多元结构转变,天然气利用结构不断优化,表现为城市燃气稳定增长、发电用气占比大幅提高。技术、政策、经济性是未来影响我国天然气利用方向的主要因素。受天然气利用政策调整、资源保障程度提高、能源价格上升等因素的影响,我国天然气的发展将呈现三大趋势——城市气化、以气代油及天然气发电。未来10年我国天然气的利用方向将保持这些趋势,特别是发电将成为我国天然气需求增长潜力最大的领域之一,从而使我国天然气消费结构呈现城市燃气、天然气发电和工业燃料三足鼎立之势。     

关停小火电机组对“十一五”规划电网的影响分析

大多数小火电机组处在电网的负荷中心,对电网起着提供灵活有功和无功电源的作用。通过分析可知,按照要求关停的小火电规模,对国家电网公司经营范围内的"十一五"电网规划总体影响不大,对局部电网供电能力、网架结构、动态无功和网损将产生一定影响,需要增加部分配套的电网建设项目和适当调整原规划中某些电网项目的建设时序,以满足"上大压小"方案实施后安全、可靠供电的需要。     

The Effects of Acuity and Utilization on Nursing Home Costs

Recent proposals aim to relocate relatively healthy residents from nursing homes to lower-cost assisted care facilities. Such a move would have impacts on nursing home costs for two main reasons. It would decrease utilization rates and increase patient care needs, or acuity. A translog cost model is used to examine the impact that acuity and utilization have on nursing home costs. Results indicate that decreasing utilization will reduce total costs for nursing homes. However, increasing acuity will increase total costs. The total effect on nursing home costs of the change in policy is to decrease nursing home total costs but increase nursing home average costs per patient day.     

油气田与风光电力融合发展研究

随着风电和光伏发电成本竞争力越来越强,国家财政补贴退坡、平价上网推进力度也逐步加大,在光伏发电建设管理方面开始实行光伏发电补贴竞价政策。油气田企业自备电网可以通过市场化交易,就近消纳分布式光伏发电和风电,条件非常便利,具有降低用电价格的潜力,同时"绿证"和碳减排指标的降本成效显著。油气田开发过程中推广网电钻井和压裂,油藏在开采后期实施二氧化碳驱、减氧空气驱等三次采油措施,开发利用油区地热资源,以及利用枯竭油气藏埋藏二氧化碳,都将新增大量用电需求。油气田企业依托自备电网、油区道路、土地和市场等优势,发展风光发电业务潜力巨大。在油区部署煤炭地下气化业务的综合优势突出,有望在枯竭油气田基础上开创一项"清洁电力+煤炭地下气化+二氧化碳埋藏"绿色产业,实现油、气、煤化石能源与清洁能源融合发展,促进传统油气田企业向清洁能源生产企业的转型发展。     

An Empirical Analysis of the Potential for Market Power in California's Electricity Industry

Using historical cost data, we simulate the California electricity market after deregulation as a static Cournot market with a competitive fringe. Our model indicates that, under the pre-deregulation structure of generation ownership, there is potential for significant market power in high demand hours, particularly in the fall and early winter months when hydroelectric output is at its lowest level relative to demand. The results also show that two of the most important factors in determining the extent and severity of market power are the level of available hydroelectric production and the elasticity of demand.     

A simulation-based evaluation of the cost of cycle time reduction in Agere Systems wafer fabrication facility—a case study

With the vast amount of capital invested in the semiconductor industry and the high level of competitiveness, semiconductor manufacturers are continuously searching for new methods to gain more market share and increase their profits. New technologies are continuously in demand, and are pushing the semiconductor manufacturers to seek better market position through constant improvement in their processes and products.Agere Systems is one of the leading companies in the microelectronics industry. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for strategic capacity expansion of production equipment at Agere Systems wafer fabrication facility (fab). We integrate simulation modeling, design of experiments, statistical analysis, and economic justification tools to aid in this highly complex decision-making process. We compliment the framework with a particular implementation. The procedure involved studying the factors in the fab that significantly impact the cycle times of the four main technologies that are currently in process and will stay in demand for at least the next few years. Moreover, the goal was to quantify the economic impact of reducing cycle times.To accomplish the objectives of this research, a valid simulation model of the production line of the fab was built. The production equipment (tool sets) that significantly influence production cycle time were identified through factor screening experiments. Based on these factors, several scenarios involving the acquisition of additional tools, aimed at cutting down cycle times, were identified and the operating characteristics curves were constructed. These characteristics curves were used to relate cycle time to production volume capabilities. Finally, an economic analysis was conducted to evaluate the return on investment in additional tools.The outcome of the case study was the identification of bottleneck facilities in the fab that have a significant impact on the cycle time of the four technologies. In the economic analysis, the cost of adding machines to these facilities was compared with the benefits resulting from the increase in production capacities.     

Gleichzeitigkeit als Leistungsgröße: Inter- und Intra-Klassen-Leistung volatiler EE-Einspeiser

The energy transition focuses on the expansion and enhancement of distribution grids and the integration of decentralized renewable generation plants. The integration of decentralized plants presents a major challenge for distribution system operators in particular. The planning and dimensioning of energy grids requires knowledge of all integrated generating units and power consumers, as well as their power ratings. Furthermore, knowledge about the diversity of renewable power plant types enables distribution system operators and scientists to selectively or cumulatively assess the maximum feed-in capacity. This is particularly important for the assessment of case studies or border scenarios. The purpose of this article is the evaluation of the maximum simultaneous feed-in power of PV and wind power plants. Furthermore, the ratio of the installed power to the maximum power generated by renewable power plants is also investigated. The diversity factor describes the ratio of the sum of all individual load’s maximum powers to the number of loads. This simultaneity can also be adapted to renewable power plants. However, it is differentiated here between simultaneous power within one renewable power plant type (intra-class performance) and simultaneous power of different renewable power plant types (inter-class performance). In cooperation with one of the largest national distribution network operator, regression lines are approximated by statistical analyzes, in order to determinate the diversity of the Central German area.