Real Estate Valuation Models: Lender and Equity Investor Criteria

The use of valuation models that focus on lender criteria has been growing in the appraisal field. In the rush to build lender criteria into real estate valuation models, equity investor criteria, expectations, and requirements occasionally have been ignored. The specific criteria considered in this paper are the loan-to-value ratio and the debt coverage ratio for lenders and the equity dividend rate for equity investors. Each of these three criteria may be a binding constraint on value.
Graphical analysis provides a framework within which major real estate valuation models (i.e., Ellwood, McLaughlin, Gettel, Lusht-Zerbst, and Steele) are compared. A new valuation model (i.e., the Cannaday-Colwell model) is developed which utilizes the equity dividend rate.
The three definitional models (i.e., McLaughlin, Gettel, and Steele) are found to be relevant only by mere coincidence. Each of these models simultaneously considers two of the three key criteria, completely eliminating the possibility of consideration of anything else; i.e., the models become tautological.
It is shown that the discounted cash flow based models (i.e., Ellwood, Lusht-Zerbst, and Cannaday-Colwell) each tell one-third of the story. One of these models will be relevant depending upon whether the binding constraint is the maximum loan-to-value ratio, the minimum debt coverage ratio, or the minimum equity dividend rate. The relevant model is the one that yields the lowest value estimate of the three.     

Determinants of Credit Spreads in Commercial Mortgages

This article examines the cross-sectional and time-series determinants of commercial mortgage credit spreads as well as the terms of the mortgages. Consistent with theory, our empirical evidence indicates that mortgages on property types that tend to be riskier and have greater investment flexibility exhibit higher spreads. The relationship between the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio and spreads is relatively weak, which is probably due to the endogeneity of the LTV choice. However, the average LTV ratio per lender has a strong positive relation with credit spreads, which is consistent with the idea that lenders specialize in mortgages with either high or low levels of risk, and that high LTV mortgages require substantially higher spreads. Finally, we observe that spreads widen and mortgage terms become stricter after periods of poor performance of the real estate markets and after periods of greater default rates of outstanding real estate loans.     

Recourse as shadow equity: Evidence from commercial real estate loans

We study the role that recourse plays in the commercial real estate loan contracts of the largest U.S. banks. We find that recourse is valued by lenders as a substitute for conventional equity. At origination, recourse loans have rate spreads that are about 20 basis points lower and loan-to-value ratios that are almost 3 percentage points higher than nonrecourse loans. Dynamically, recourse affects loan modification negotiations by providing additional bargaining power to the lender. Recourse loans were half as likely to receive accommodation during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the modifications that did occur entailed a relatively smaller reduction in payments.     

Capital Structure Decisions in Real Estate Investment

This study examines the financing decisions of real estate investors and the choice of capital structure when acquiring income-producing properties. Drawing from the literature in finance and real estate, we develop a capital structure model for real estate investment and derive six hypotheses regarding the relationship of the overall loan-to-value ratio chosen by an investor to selected characteristics of the investment. The hypotheses are then tested using financing data from a sample of apartment and commercial transactions over a fifteen-year period in a specific real estate market. The empirical findings strongly support the importance of depreciation deductions, financial distress costs, capital constraints, tax rates, and interest rates as determinants of the capital structure of real estate investors.     

A Note on Mortgage Risk: Default vs. Loss Rates

This note reexamines the role of the loan-to-value ratio on mortgage risk. Whereas previous studies have focused on the default rate as a function of this term, this study considers the additional effect on the loss rate of defaulted loans. Because the dollar loss per amount originated is the product of the default rate and the loss rate on defaulted loans, the impact of the loan-to-value ratio on both the default and loss rates is crucial to explaining the impact of the loan-to-value ratio on mortgage risk. I find that both rates are significantly positively related to loan-to-value ratio and that the loss rate accounts for between 13% and 20% of total loan-to-value impact.     

Title Assurance and Settlement Charges

The assurance that a seller of real estate has the right to transfer property free and clear of any encumbrances is important to potential purchasers and lenders. In the vast majority of cases in which real property is transferred, title insurance is used for this purpose. Consumer ignorance, coupled with a price structure based on the sales price of the property being insured, has led to an industry in which it is theoretically possible for the total charges by the primary supplier of the services to be indefinitely above a competitive level.     

Call Options and Liquidation in Commercial Mortgage Financing

This paper models a commercial real estate project where a wealth-constrained manager uses outside debt financing to purchase a project who's return depends on future economic conditions and the manager's investment in the project. It is shown that it is inefficient to finance the project with callable debt. This prediction is consistent with observed real estate financing practice. I also model the outcome of financial distress allowing for (1) debt forgiveness, (2) equity in exchange for debt forgiveness, and (3) foreclosure. The model motivates (1) why commercial real estate loans are often foreclosed, and (2) why lenders foreclose assets at fire-sale prices.     

论我国房地产市场预警系统的建立

建立房地产市场预警系统有助我们在恰当的时候采用正确的房地产宏观调控措施促进房地产市场健康发展。本文将房价收入比、房价租金比、租金收入比、房地产价格增长率与GDP增长率之比、商品房空置率5个指标作为房地产市场预警统计指标,并对它们的预警区间做出界定,然后根据每个指标的统计数据,确定警兆的警级,结合警兆的重要性进行加权综合,综合成一个指数,这样就可以用一组类似于交通信号灯的标志把当前的房地产市场状态直观地表达出来,用以判断房地产市场过热或衰退的程度,来制定房地产宏观调控的方向。     

基于主成分分析的我国房地产业周期波动研究

运用主成分分析法构造房地产业景气综合指标（主成分）,第一主成分贡献率为0．96829,说明它保留了原始变量96．829％的信息,在房地产业周期波动分析中就可以把其他主成分舍弃。第一主成分与原始变量的相关系数p称为因子负荷量为0．70632,表明第一主成分反映了商品房销售额指标70．632％的信息。选择商品房销售额指标作为代表,来研究房地产业周期变动的特征和规律性是可行的。运用时间序列加法模型和乘法模型分析了我国房地产业周期波动的特征和规律性,我国房地产业循环波动的周期为12-13年。     

房地产信托火爆的背后

一边是房地产信托的火爆,一边是监管层对其风险的关注,如何控制风险,是投资人必须谨慎对待的事项。11月7日,银监会发布的通知给火热的房地产信托市场提了一个醒,通知警示信托公司不得违规操作,放大行业风险。而在此之前,这一市场确实火爆得异乎寻常。     

The Subsequent Market Value of Former REO Properties

In this study, we find the subsequent price for a property initially sold as a real estate owned (REO) property occurs at market prices. The subsequent price to the REO purchaser is related to indicators that the property has been remodeled, renovated, or updated. This suggests that the difference between the price received by servicers/lenders that foreclose and sell a REO property, and the price received by subsequent property owners that sell is in large part due to timely improvements made postforeclosure. Lenders are not selling REO properties at irrational prices, but rather at prices that reflect the condition of the properties.     

Commercial Real Estate Rental Index: A Dynamic Panel Data Model Estimation

Using the actual quarterly rental income generated in the years between 2001 and 2010 by over 9,000 NCREIF commercial properties, we construct a commercial real estate rental index and estimate the time series properties (e.g., mean‐reversion speed and volatility) of market‐wide rental growth using a dynamic panel data model. The dynamic panel data model has several advantages over a standard hedonic regression. In addition, we incorporate age effects into our panel data model, and by doing so we correct the age bias in the repeated sales method and in the simple average method. Our estimates show that rental growth is cyclical but it generally lags behind broader economic growth. Surprisingly, the long‐term average rental growth is significantly lower than what is usually perceived, and the volatility of rental growth can be significantly under estimated when the conventional methods are adopted. We also find significant cross‐property type and cross‐region variations in the rental adjustment process. In contrast to the existing literature, we find a strong negative relation between rental growth and cap rate, and that this relation is significantly stronger than that between NOI growth and cap rate. Finally, we establish an empirical relation between price return and rental growth in the commercial real estate market.     

Pricing Life-of-Loan Rate Caps on Default-Free Adjustable-Rate Mortgages

A model is developed and utilized in this paper to value a life-of-loan interest-rate cap on an ARM that reprices monthly. The value of the cap is seen to depend importantly on both the slope of the term structure and the variance of the 1-month rate. However, the cap value is not sensitive to the source of the slope of the term structure — what precise combination of interest-rate expectations and risk aversion determined the slope. This insensitivity is fortunate because of the great difficulty of knowing at any point in time why the term structure is what it is.
Given the variation in the slope of the term structure and the variance of the 1-month rate that occurred over the 1979–84 period, the addition to the coupon rate on a 1-month ARM that lenders should have charged for a 5% life-of-loan cap has ranged from 5 to 40 basis points.     

The Borrower's Choice of Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages in the Presence of Nominal and Real Shocks

This paper concerns the conditions under which borrowers select fixed and adjustable rate mortgages. The novelty of the paper lies in its capability to analyze the effect of nominal and real shocks separately. The fixed rate mortgage (FRM) versus the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) choice is determined by the expected real interest rate differential, initial wealth, income, expected real and nominal income risk exposure—measured by different parameters—the value of the house, the appreciation of the house and the influence of the variance of nominal and real shocks. Results differ according to whether or not borrowers are restricted by the loan-to-value constraint.     

A Test of Weak-Form Efficiency in Residential Real Estate Returns

This paper tests weak-form efficiency of residential real estate returns for the city of Memphis, Tennessee. The database for the study is comprised of the population of all sales of single-unit residential property over a fifteen-year period, 1970–1984. The city was divided into ten submarkets based on Memphis City Planning Commission planning districts. An analysis of variance procedure was utilized to stabilize the variance both within and across submarkets and nonmarket financing was partially controlled by eliminating transactions with loan-to-value ratios greater than 95%. The remaining transactions were then used to generate a mean return series. The advantage of the mean over the single transaction series used by Gau is that it represents the most likely outcome for the investor trying to duplicate investment performance since "property unique" features would be expected to cancel. Seven of the ten submarkets exhibited time patterns; however, after adjusting for transaction costs, all ten submarkets were determined weak-form efficient for the period 1970–1984. This was not true for the short horizon holding period, 1970–1975. In four sub-markets an asymmetric version of Alexander's filter rule was able to outperform a buy-and-hold, even for round- trip transaction costs as high as 10%.     

The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets

This paper tests whether commercial real estate markets (both exchange-traded and non-exchange-traded) are integrated with stock markets using multifactor asset pricing models. The results support the hypothesis that the market for exchange-traded real estate companies, including REITs, is integrated with the market for exchange-traded (non-real-estate) stocks. Moreover, the degree of integration has significantly increased during the 1990s. However, when appraisal-based returns (adjusted for smoothing) are used to construct real estate portfolio returns, the results fail to support the integration hypothesis, although this may reflect the inability of these estimated private market returns to accurately proxy for commercial real estate returns. Interestingly, the growth rate in real per capita consumption is consistently priced in both commercial real estate markets and stock markets, whereas previous studies have found mixed evidence on the role of consumption in explaining ex ante stock returns.     

Real Estate Returns and Risk with Heterogeneous Investors

This article develops a theoretical framework and formulates a unified risk metric that integrates both real estate price risk and uncertainty of time on market (TOM). We demonstrate that real estate sellers with different degrees of financial distress face not only different marketing period risks, but also receive different return distributions upon successful sales. The major findings of this article can be summarized as follows. First, we show that real estate return and risk, which account for both price and TOM risk, are investor specific, varying over investors with different financial circumstances and holding periods. Second, the traditional valuation of real estate return and risk, which is based solely on the return distribution of a successful sale without considering the uncertainty of TOM and the investor's financial circumstances, underestimates real estate risk and exaggerates real estate return. Third, our empirical applications in both residential and commercial real estate markets show that the Sharpe ratio estimated by the traditional approach is seriously overstated—to the largest extent for investors with high financial distress. In addition, we find that, given the typical 5‐ to 7‐year holding period for real estate, the Sharpe ratios estimated by integrating both price and TOM risk are much in line with the performance of financial assets. These findings can help to explain the apparent “risk‐premium puzzle” in real estate.     

The Sources of Risk Spillovers among U.S. REITs: Financial Characteristics and Regional Proximity

In this article, we estimate the risk spillovers among 74 U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) using the state‐dependent sensitivity value‐at‐risk approach. This methodology allows for the quantification of the spillover size as a function of a company's financial condition. We show that the size of risk spillovers is more than twice as large when REITs are in financial distress and find evidence for the impact of geographical proximity. Our results provide new insights concerning the relevance of geographical diversification for REITs and have important implications for the investment and risk management decisions of real estate investors, mortgage lenders, home suppliers and policy makers.     

Co‐movements and Correlations Across Asian Securitized Real Estate and Stock Markets

We find conditional real estate‐stock correlations at the local, regional and global levels are time varying and asymmetric in some cases for our sample of eight Asian securitized real estate markets over 1995–2009. Real estate–global stock correlations co‐move significantly and positively with real estate–regional stock correlations and real estate–local stock correlations. They are also influenced significantly by relative (real estate/stock) volatilities and their lags at three integration levels. Furthermore, real estate and stock volatilities, covariances and correlations increased from the preglobal financial crisis period to the crisis period. However, real estate and stock volatility are more important than correlation in causing the changes in covariance during both the precrisis and crisis periods. Finally, exchange rate volatility appears to have played a relatively less important role in these cross real estate–stock correlations.     

Commercial Office Space: Testing the Implications of Real Options Models with Competitive Interactions

We test the implications of real option pricing models with competitive interactions for commercial real estate development. The competitive nature of a local commercial real estate market relies on a Herfindahl ratio derived from individual developers' shares of total office construction in their market. All else being equal, greater competition among local developers is associated with more building starts. Other variables suggested by the real options pricing model, including the volatility of local lease rates, are also found to be statistically important. In addition, we provide evidence consistent with greater competition attenuating the extent to which increases in volatility delay commercial real estate development.