压缩财政赤字 抑制通货膨胀

目前我国的通货膨胀问题十分突出,因而反通货膨胀已成为当务之急。通货膨胀产生的原因与抑制通货膨胀措施是多方面的,从国内外的经验教训来看,财政赤字推动过度需求,从而导致通货膨胀恶性发展的问题必须引起重视。 我国1979～1987年9年间,除1985年以外财政均为赤字,累计金额为592亿元。1988年     

探析我国当前通货膨胀的成因与治理对策

从2010年7月开始到2011年6月,我国衡量物价水平的两大指标CPI、PPI持续上涨,通货膨胀日益加剧,如何治理通货膨胀成为我国经济发展的重中之重.本文总结归纳了我国本轮通货膨胀的特点,以及引发我国通货膨胀的国际和国内因素,并在此基础上有针对性地提出了相应的综合性治理措施.     

对我国企业债务问题的探讨

对我国企业债务问题的探讨郭元　当今中国，债务是一个普遍现象，尤其令人头痛的是企业相互之间拖欠的债务，弄得好些企业的生产经营已不能正常开展了。特别是进入１９９４年，随着通货膨胀的加剧和为抑制通货膨胀而采取的各种紧缩措施的出台，企业债务也随之猛增。债务不...     

治理通货膨胀要有大局观念

治理通货膨胀要有大局观念杨庆兵撰文说，治理通货膨胀，已成为我国今年下半年经济工作中的重点。治理通货膨胀，要强调大局观念。首先，要澄清认识，不能认为通货膨胀无害。尤其是当物价上涨指数已达２０％，值得警惕。其次，中央措施和地方措施应双管齐下。当前控制固定...     

通货膨胀与中国宏观经济政策的困境

2008年，中国经济再度经历了通货膨胀。通货膨胀成因复杂，属于一种混合型通货膨胀。在物价上涨的袁象下面，隐藏着经济制度的缺陷和经济结构的根本性失衡。受制度本身和一些内在因素的影响，宏观经济政策面临困境。必须采取短期和长期措施，在治理通货膨胀的同时，尽快转变经济增长方式，完善基本经济制度。     

通货膨胀的深层次原因与紧缩对策

1985年以来,我国的商品价格连续上涨,而且步步升级,根据国家公布的零售物价上涨率,1985年为8.8%、1989年为6%、1987年为9.3%、1988年为18.5%,而1988年12月份较1987年12月份上涨了26.7%。按照国际上的标准,物价上涨率为7—8%属于奔腾式通货膨胀,而达到25%以上属于恶性通货膨胀。按1988年18.5%的平均上涨率我国的通货膨胀已接近恶性通货膨胀,而按1988年12月份的上涨率已属于恶性通货膨胀。这种连续的通货膨胀已     

反思,金融危机两周年

<正>2008年9月,雷曼兄弟的倒闭引发全球金融危机。在2007年,全球经济增长周期就已步入下降通道,美元持续走软,大量投机资金进入原油期货以及农产品期货市场,拉高了国际原油及粮食价格,直接诱发全球性通货膨胀。为应对通货膨胀,美联储连     

我国通货膨胀的影响因素和治理措施

我国通货膨胀的影响因素和治理措施刘楷改革开放以来，中国经济的持续高速增长令世人嘱目，但是，自８０年代中期以来，伴随着经济的高速增长，出现了严重的通货膨胀，如何走出这一困境，使我国经济实现高效、稳定的持续增长，已成为政府和经济界共同关注的焦点。本文就这...     

我国应对气候变化面临的形势分析及战略选择建议

基于对我国应对气候变化面临形势和世界主要国家应对气候变化策略的分析，阐述了我国应当把低碳发展作为应对气候变化策略的原因，提出了我国促进低碳发展战略的指导思想、战略目标，以及建设节约型社会、构建低碳型国民经济体系、构建低碳型消费模式和构建符合低碳发展要求的政府宏观调控体系等战略重点，进一步分析提出了完善节能减排约束性指标体系、尽快攻克煤炭清洁发电关键技术、以发展循环经济为抓手促进绿色经济发展等战略措施选择。     

企业改革与治理通货膨胀之探析

<正> 通货膨胀是困扰当今世界的三大经济问题之一,通货膨胀已成为世界各国共有的经济现象。我国改革开放以来,在经济快速发展的同时,也出现了程度不同的通货膨胀,1994年的通货膨胀率达21.7％,1995年经治理降为14.8％,1996年上半年下降为7.1％。但物价上涨仍存在反弹空间,本文拟就企业改革与治理通货膨胀做一探讨。 一、对近年物价上涨问题的分析     

Nominal and Real Required Returns in Present Value Analysis

Present value analysis is complicated by uncertainty about future inflation. If it so happened that real cash flows did not depend on inflation and real required returns were close to zero, then inflation and required returns could be omitted from present value analysis. Unfortunately, they cannot. This paper shows that real cash flows are typically sensitive to inflation and that, outside of the 1950s and 1960s, real interest rates, have not been very stable or close to zero. There have consequently been many years when a neglect of inflation and interest rates would have caused substantial present-value errors. It is also argued that interest rates on Treasury and Corporate AAA bonds are only appropriate for virtually risk-free projects. An engineering project normally commands a substantial risk premium and the neglect of such premia can cause a large overestimate of a project's present value.     

我国CPI波动的源泉及其走势预测——基于结构模型的实证研究

基于2000年1月至2009年12月的月度数据,采用结构模型实证分析了我国CPI波动的源泉,研究发现：我国CPI的波动是多种因素综合影响的结果,关键因素是货币因素、外部输入性成本推动因素,货币因素对CPI影响的时滞非常明显。同时,对我国CPI走势进行了预测,得出：如果仅从货币因素和外部输入性成本推动因素来看,我国面临高通胀威胁;但在统计意义上,房地产等资产领域的分流作用极大降低了通货膨胀的压力。文末,基于实证结果讨论了相应的政策启示。     

100 Years of Commercial Real Estate Prices in Manhattan

This article is able to put together a database of 86 repeat-sales transactions for office properties in lower and midtown Manhattan spanning the years from 1899 to 1999. Using this very limited database, decade-interval changes in real property prices are estimated—with varying degrees of precision. Our conclusions are two fold. First, adjusting for inflation, commercial office property values were 30% lower in 1999 than they were in 1899. Second, within any decade values often rise and fall by 20–50% in real terms. With these results, the long-term historic return to New York commercial property must mostly comprise yield with capital gains limited to general inflation. Other historical studies consistent with this conclusion are reviewed.     

Public Real Estate Limited Partnership Returns: A Preliminary Comparison with Other Investments

Real Estate Limited Partnership (RELP) securities have attracted substantial investor interest, but limited research study. This paper, utilizing a very recent database of actual RELP secondary market transactions, provides preliminary evidence regarding the relative performance of RELP securities, as well as the interrelationships between RELP returns and the returns of Treasury bills and bonds and common stock. Results suggest that RELP returns are negatively correlated with common stock returns, but are positively correlated with the rate of inflation. RELP returns do not consistently exceed the rate of inflation nor do they exceed common stock returns. RELP returns also failed to outperform a broadly-based income property index.     

金融状况指数预测通胀趋势的机理与实证——基于中国1999—2011年月度数据的分析

在构建并阐释金融状况指数(FCI)预测通胀机理的基础上,本文通过广义脉冲响应函数测算了我国的FCI,并实证分析了FCI对我国通胀未来趋势的预测能力。结果表明:在分析金融变量对通胀水平的影响效果和预测通胀趋势方面,采用综合反映一国货币供应量、利率、汇率、股价等金融变量的FCI比采用单一的金融变量更合理、更全面;FCI是我国通胀的先行指标,包含未来通胀水平变化的有用信息,可以有效预测未来6个月内的通胀运行趋势。我国应尽快指定相关部门编制FCI,并通过定期公布FCI来实施宏观经济监测、货币政策调整和通胀预期管理。     

INFLATION AND DEBT INDEXATION: THE EQUIVALENCE OF TWO ALTERNATIVE SCHEMES FOR THE CASE OF PERIODIC PAYMENTS

The presence of inflation has induced the financial institutions to implement procedures devised to protect the real values of their loans. Two of such procedures, the floating rate scheme and the monetary correction mechanism, tend to lead to very different streams of payments. However, whenever the floating rate scheme follows the rule of strict adherence to the Fisher equation, the two procedures are financially equivalent.     

A Contingent Claims Analysis of Price Level-Adjusted Mortgages

This paper examines the performance of alternative mortgage instruments in an environment of stochastic price fluctuations. The two most widely discussed contracts that deal with inflation are the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) and the price level-adjusted mortgage (PLAM). The former compensates for inflation by paying the nominal interest rate, which contains a component reflecting the rate of inflation. Nonetheless, even without explicit nominal amortization, this results in real amortization and hence a tilting effect. In addition, the inflation component of the nominal interest rate is shown to reflect only anticipated and not actual inflation, and so the real value of an ARM fluctuates due to unanticipated inflation. A PLAM suffers from none of these defects. To the extent that one is interested in a mortgage whose properties reflect the underlying real environment, the price level-adjusted mortgage is the ideal instrument.     

Inflation Protection from Homeownership: Long‐Run Evidence, 1814–2008

This article examines the inflation hedging capacity of the private home. We employ unique long‐term data for inflation, house price dynamics and rents for Amsterdam dating back to 1814, allowing us to study total housing returns in different inflation regimes and for varying investment horizons. Our Amsterdam data show that homeownership's protection against actual and expected inflation increases with the investment horizon. This increase is especially strong for horizons up to 10 years. Inflation protection from housing is stronger when inflation is persistent, and the hedging capacities of housing regarding unexpected inflation are weak.     

Excess Returns, Inflation and the Efficiency of the Housing Market

This paper examines the influence that unexpected inflation has on the reported time pattern in housing returns. Two alternative models of expected inflation are used to study its effect: a rational expectations model and an adaptive expectations model. Findings indicate that both estimates of unexpected inflation are positively correlated with excess returns to housing. If inflation expectations are assumed to have been adaptive during the 1970s and early 1980s, serial correlation in the excess returns is shown to be greatly diminished when adjusted to control for unexpected inflation. However, substantial inertia in the pattern of the adjusted return series remains.     

剔除食品和能源的核心通货膨胀度量方法

文章以2000年1月至2015年5月月度同比CPI分类价格指数时间序列数据为基础建立协整关系和 共特征向量检验。实证分析表明我国CPI分类指数时间序列之间长期存在共同趋势,短期存 在共同周期。因此,在我国使用剔除食品和能源的核心通货膨胀测算方法是不合理的。本文 进一步提出我国中央银行在制定货币政策时,应同时关注官方公布的核心通货膨胀和通货膨 胀,以免使货币政策对食品和能源价格上涨反应不足或反应过度,以及提出我国核心通货膨 胀的测算还应关注CPI结构的建议。